Can Brown Deliver?

by Ed Meyer

posted on September 13, 2008 in Free Picks and Tips, Handicapping, Horse Racing, | No Comments >>

You have heard the slogan all over the world. But today, it is all about Big Brown. He is running at Monmouth in a little $500,000 race over the turf. Yes, you heard it correctly. The turf. Can he do it? Is he following Curlin’s path of finding the weeds a favorable place? I think has a few runners that just may shut down the Brown if things don’t go his way.

First off B.B is stepping up in class from his last turf outing (a MdSpWt race).  You will see the class indicator pointed toward the heavens, the same place Mr. Dutrow will be looking when he turns for home. He has the breeding to look the part, and according to team Dutrow, they don’t even have to put bandages on him when he takes to the greensward.

He has 3 works at quiet Aqueduct. No racing going on, and he can get down to business. Kent D. is in the irons, and you can’t take away a point for that. He is 2-1, and that may be a bit short. The old saying of “Never ask a horse to do what he has never done before” just may be his undoing today. But that is why they run the races, and you can take a look at the data on some runners who are right there in the top tier.

Take a look at the top tier selection of Silver Tree. He has Eddie Castro in the saddle (and this guy is one heck of an underrated turf rider). Drops in class (with the arrow), and has been working at Belmont on a regular basis. His last work was on Tuesday, and he should be fit and ready.  His only drawback is that he looks to enjoy 1 1/16th, but you are getting 6-1, and that is worth the trip for this top tier selection.

The second top tier selection is Proudinsky. This old boy sports the “should improve” icon and that can be enough said by itself. He was a beaten favorite in the Bernard Baruch, a G-2 event, where he was the favorite against last year’s winner of this race Shakis. You may remember this pony from Breeders’ Cup Day. Drops in class, and has the services of Ramon Dominguez. This guy racks more frequent flier miles than anyone when going where the money is… He is up for Bobby Frankel, and they do well together.  You are getting 4-1, and this may be the play to work over in exotics. I would use all three, and hope to beat B.B down the lane.  Proudinsky whipped out a sweet 59.2 in the morning works to get a little more gas in the tank. These are all positive signs…

All in all, we would like to see Brown come back and do well. But it is in your best interest to protect yourself against a soft favorite today. The question still stands; can Brown deliver???