Bettor Beware

by Ed Meyer

posted on April 3, 2009 in Free Picks and Tips, Other Events | 1 Comment >>

Every player in the world that has plunked two bucks down on a game, a horse, or went to the track, has heard about the “trap” play. This is where something looks so good, that it is hard to believe. Well, I don’t know if it is a trap play, but it is a race where the favorite is very strong, but doesn’t have to win.

This particular race is The Wood Memorial. It is a G-1 affair for a sweet $750,000. Not a bad day at the office, if you can find that type of work. There is a 4-5 morning line player by the name of I Want Revenge who looks hotter than a two-dollar pistol. He looks like he will make a repeat performance of the Gotham, and add more money to the IEAH bankroll… Now, that is at first glance.

Go a bit deeper, and see that he has more than enough graded stakes money, and he will be there on the first Saturday in May (barring any unforeseen incidents). He has the credentials, and has shown he loves the distance. But, trainer Jeff Mullins is not about to leave his Derby run on the track on Saturday.

His eye-catching performance in the Gotham was good enough. They know what they have. They just want him to get something out of this race, and come home ready. If he wins, that is great. But if a solid effort is put forth, that will do just nicely. This is not a must-win situation.

Now, this is where you dial up, and find some value. You may want to key around the favorite. Or, you may want to use him as your key multiple times if you think he is the lock. But if you are value seeking, there are a couple worth a solid gander.

Let’s go to Imperial Council. He needs the money, and ran a nice second against the favorite last out. Prado back up, and the price should be 2-1 or 5-2. Not bad at all. Or, you can glance over at Lime Rickey. After all of those turf starts, they want him to be a dirt runner. This shows high hopes, and he has been solid all the way. If he wins, you’ll need help carrying the money. The entry looks good as well. There is a rabbit with Atomic Rain, and West Side Bernie looks for revenge after failing as the favorite in the Lane’s End.

Any can win, and any may win, but you have to get in it to win it. This is a nice race that needs a study session. So consult with, and smile. Because in one month, it will be Derby Day.