Mental Notes

by Ed Meyer

posted on April 25, 2009 in General Discussion, Handicapping, Kentucky Derby | 1 Comment >>

As we draw closer by the day and hour, Derby fever is working into many. Owners are listening to trainers, trainers are listening to horses, and players should take it all in.

I am getting away from the “jinx” drama. I just don’t believe there is one method to wearing the roses.

I have followed closely, and what I am thinking will be defined starting Wednesday when the draw takes place. I am reading about who looks good on the the track, and who is taking to the surface. That may be the most important factor. Even more important than breeding. Many have outrun their bloodlines over the years.

I am starting to look at Dubai as a serious threat this year. They have sent two monsters with Regal Ransom and Desert Party.  They are working well, and the surface in Dubai is made up just like Churchill.

Also making my first cut are: I Want Revenge for his ability to transfer poly to dirt style in big fashion.  Count in Pioneer of the Nile. They are really saying he looks like the real deal. I will definitely have others, and the week with unfold like a good book.

Some of my initial toss outs are as follows: Dunkirk. I think in time he will be the real deal. But Pletcher needs pace, the trip, and mustard on his hot dog. I just think this youngster is not seasoned enough.  I love Quality Road, but it will have to be for another day. It is hard enough to win much less having so much to overcome. Before you mention Big Brown, QR has had two cracks in a short period of time. Papa Clem is next up. I see a very nice G-3 here, and he will make some big dough in time. But just not on May 2nd. West Side Bernie will be a nice money maker, but this day may be a little out of his reach.

As the week progresses, I will listen in on all of the NTRA conference calls. This is where the media interviews the trainers about the runners. You will be surprised what you will hear at times.

One thing you can also count on is me reading the pp’s, and then using to make my final decisions. I will use the data to find value, and plot my way to find exotics. Also on the docket is going to Churchill on Thursday to get a look at the track. I guess we can never do enough homework. That is what separates the players from the rest of the field.