How Much Is Too Much?

by Ed Meyer

posted on April 23, 2010 in General Discussion, Kentucky Derby | No Comments >>

To see a runner finish up strong in their last prep has always been a sign I have looked for. I think it shows a colt’s ability to get a little better each and every time out. That is, until now…..

I was reading a little stat, and I found it quite interesting.  Since 1991, only 2 out of 15 runners have won by five or more lengths and then gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. Could the easy win take gas out of the tank? You decide:

2009 – Friesan Fire – 7 1/4 – La Derby

2008 – Big Brown –  5 – Fla Derby   (*Derby winner)

2007 – Curlin – 10 1/2 – Ark Derby

2006 – Bellamy Road –  17 1/2 – The Wood

2006 – Sinister Minister – 12 3/4 – Bluegrass

2006 – Sweetnorthernsaint – 9 1/4 Ill Derby

2005 – Bandini – 6 – Bluegrass

2005 – Greely’s Galaxy – 9 1/2 – Ill Derby

2005 – Afleet Alex – 8 – Ark Derby

2002 – War Emblem – 6 1/4 – Ill Derby  (*Derby winner)

2001 – Point Given – 5 1/2 – Santa Anita Derby

2001 – Millenium Wind – 5 1/4 – Bluegrass

1996 – Skip Away – 6 – Bluegrass

1995 – Talkin Man – 7 3/4 – Wood

1991 – Hansel – 9 – Lexington

So, is it better to see the big win? Or, is this just more Derby fever talking? I like to read about trends and history. If you go back and take a look, for the most part you will see a trend. I now have filed this one with the other 50 that I have in my noggin….

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