The Kentucky Oaks [Free Selection]

by Ed Meyer

posted on April 28, 2010 in Free Picks and Tips, Other Events | 8 Comments >>

This Derby for the gals really offers some value. If you glance once, you will come out with the favorite and call it a day. It is only when you go a little deeper, that you might just sit back and have a cup of tea and make sense of this race.

#5 Blind Luck looks very good, and that is plain and simple. Bejarano is in the saddle, and that is a HUGE plus. I had the privilege of watching him ride when he was very young and didn’t look like this in the saddle. But, time changes everything, and he is surely blessed. This is 2nd off of the poly track, and I think she may need a bit more. She is 9/9 lifetime in the money, and has 6 wins to her credit. She won handily over the Oaklawn strip to win the Fantasy Stakes easily. I have a friend who charts for Oaklawn, and he said this meet was tough on many runners coming out of Hot Springs. I have watched samples of this info, but she fits into another category. I wish she would have had some work over the Churchill strip, but she has been shooting hot works at SA. Maybe I am crazy, but I am going to seek value elsewhere.

There is tons of early pace in the race, and the following should jump out early and make them catch if they want to win – Amen Hallelujah, Evening Jewel, Champagne D’oro, Tidal Pool, and Crisp. You can count on the clock going quick early, and this race may set up for a stalker or a closer with versatility.

I am going to the rail. I find it to be a solid fit for  #1It’s Tea Time. She is by Dynaformer, and should be able to handle the distance. Alan Garcia is aboard this runner, who is trained by Rusty Arnold. I like that she has run on the turf, and made the switch at Keeneland to the poly track. Turf runners from Florida did very well making the switch all meet long, and Garcia is no stranger to the winner’s circle. He won the Bluegrass Stakes, and her style fits a quick pace. She steadied early at Keeneland, and that was going the short stretch of the 1 1/16th run. She came flying, and was beaten by a long neck at the wire. Going from all-weather to the dirt gets this barn a 13% win clip, and 52% ITM. No matter what the pace, I think this lightly raced gal can come flying. I know she will have to beat a very good Blind Luck, but there is the price to be had. I would look for a nice quiet trip along the rail, and for her to start moving about the 3/8ths pole, as to not get into trouble.

The under card is great, and WinningPonies can come up with some great value. I would run all of my wagers past their tier levels, and rain is in the forecast. So, be sure to keep track of Mother Nature and get yourself a little piece of this gal. I think she will fit in nicely as an exacta box with Blind Luck and Quiet Temper from Fair Grounds.

Good luck, and enjoy the weekend!