Rain At The River [Free Selections]

by Ed Meyer

posted on May 7, 2010 in Free Picks and Tips | No Comments >>

All tracks have an edge. This even goes for synthetic surfaces. If they get hot, sticky slow running happens. If they get cooler, then they can powder up a bit and closers rule. Some dirt tracks are faster when it gets wet. The River is one of those. It may not always be reflected in the hand-timed events, but it is there… Speed rules the day, and when it dries out, it can be tiring. Just take a look at Churchill on Derby Day. The trainers did not want the track to be harrowed as this would have caused the track to change, and the dry air could make one of the best surfaces tire the hooves of the colts and a filly on this day.

River Downs – Saturday

Race #3 – #5 Melverton (6-5).

Edgar Paucar for Charlie Lawson.  They roll at a 22% win clip, and he is 1/1 at River Downs. This gelding has mostly been running in open company. He has been in conditioned claiming, and this seems to fit his needs at this time. 3/6 on an off going, and at the time of this writing, it is raining cats and dogs. I find that the surface gets tighter and stamped down when the heavy rains roll through. I think you will see stalkers and speed runners rule the day. He fits that mold, and goes from 5 1/2 – 6 panels, where he is 5/7 at the distance. Let it rain ……

Race #5 – #7 Final Quest (5-1).

This race has plenty of foot, and I am going to go against the grain. I know, I just finished telling you that speed and stalkers rule. That holds very true, but I am banking on such a push for the front, that the pace will soften up for a nice off-going expert. He is 4/4 on an off going, and that is what I am playing for on Saturday. I like how this Ohio-bred stepped outside of Ohio conditions last out, and gets right back into line. He has enough speed to run after the leaders, and I think Yuri Yuranga will be making a move at the 3/8th’s pole. The price is worth the chance.

Race #7 – #3 More Than Thought (1-1).

Trainer Shane Crutchfield is winning at 50%, and Perry Outzs is rolling at 34% for the meet. I just spoke with his agent today, and he said he is feeling better every day and is getting closer to win number 6,000. He is 8/12 at RD, and 2/3 on an off-track. I like the second trip off the poly track, and that has been a good helper in finding winners. I would look for a trip just off the pace and a pounce down the lane.

Grab an umbrella, and enjoy the rain. You can dance all the way to the windows if this holds true on this day!