OK… The time has come, and I am not going to waver. Good or bad, you can come back and gander at this blog… Either way, it is not for lack of doing homework and being prepared.
I watch New York daily, I read all about track changes and listen to what on-track handicappers have to say about the oval. Add all of this up, and it could mean nothing at the end of the race as there are 12 new faces that are coming into the race fresh. Big payoffs have not been out of the question, and you must seek value wherever you find it. At this time, I am watching the signal in New York, and getting ready to load my wagers. But, first… Let’s talk Belmont 142.
#5 Fly Down (9-2) – I began with this runner, and I have not wavered. Worked a bullet over the deep Saratoga training course. This was the final selling point for me, and Johnny V and Zito know the New York strip…. I like the tandem, and being lightly raced has to help. He didn’t get hooked up in the Derby hoopla, and looks to be fresh and ready. I can’t slight the rider, trainer, or how the horse is preparing….
#11 First Dude (7-2)- I know this is a jump, but the namesake of Todd Palin looks the player. Worked well over the Churchill oval after the Bluegrass, and a favorite angle of mine comes into play. Two off the poly track is tough….. Sometimes it takes a runner two starts to get road tested back for the dirt. 6/7 ITM, and Dale Romans is a very underrated trainer. He is respected, but if you look close, you will see that he comes from a a racing family that can get the job done. The son of Stephen Got Even has the speed to be dangerous. He can be on the “Bill Dailey” or just off. That is the preferred style, and then the race all begins at the half….. I think Romans has him wound tight, and the works over CD along with the two off the synthetic does the trick for me…
#6 Ice Box (3-1) – Why is he 3-1? This flies in the face of years of tradtional running. I don’t think the riders will go suicidal fractions, and this will make it tough on him. But, all of that being said, I like him. He will come rolling, and is not an agile animal. He will be far back, and be rolling down the center. This is the place where little problems are to be encountered. I feel Jose Lezcano will get him moving before the 3/8th’s pole. He will be on the groove before the turn unfolds, and at the top of the lane, the speed better hope they are 2-3 on top. If not, this runner can grind them into dust. He would be that bad guy in the movies that is always chasing you no matter how tired you get. His hope is that he finds them at 1/8th pole, as long closers don’t get it done too often. If he does, it won’t surprise me at all. I liked him in the Derby to get a piece of the action, but he had 19 reasons not to win. That is because he had to pass all of them….
There it is… Early selections to compare and use with the tier levels. WinningPonies is dialed in on Belmont, and they are proven on this day. There is a great day with an undercard chock full of guaranteed Pick-4’s and Pick-6’s. I like the pools, and if you want to jump in, this is the day. Be sure to dial up your data, and tune into the Internet show or catch it on podcast to catch details about the Belmont card.