Derby Doings

by Ed Meyer

posted on April 20, 2011 in Free Picks and Tips, General Discussion, Handicapping, Kentucky Derby | 3 Comments >>

Kentucky DerbyI am really starting to put things together in my noggin about what my tickets will look like. You will start hearing all sorts of  “ins and outs.” Rosie will be the first woman in the Derby since Rosemary, and Shane Sellers may make it back to the spotlight if Twinspired gets in. This is better than any TV show or news story. Once Derby fever hits, it all gets more exciting by the minute.

The top of my ticket has Dialed In dancing down the lane. Hall of Famer Nick Zito is bringing this colt along nicely. Each year, it seems there are fewer starts needed to be considered a contender. He is a lightly raced three-year-old by Mineshaft. Zito brings a “zen-like” approach mixed with the a New York attitude. A unique blend that makes up one of the best horsemen we can find.

He has two winners with Strike the Gold, and Go for Gin. Last year his freight train Ice Box closed like a madman, but finished second to Super Saver. He knows how to get them ready, and like all trainers, he needs a little racing luck and a clean trip.

Julien Leparoux is a name that will be etched into stone. He is so patient, and makes few mistakes. After his loss in the Bluegrass, you didn’t hear all sorts of stories. He just said it was a troubled trip, and things didn’t go his way. Riders that have those qualities are destined for the “HOF’ when their time comes. I think he fits nicely, and you couldn’t ask for any better rider in the saddle.

After the past few weeks, we have seen the great relegated to good in the blink of eye. It just takes one questionable race, and now you have a new favorite at the top of the heap. When you hear legendary handicapper Mike Battaglia make remarks about how he would have trouble picking a favorite right now it is anybody’s race to win.

According to a few polls, Dialed in is the favorite son in the morning line. Uncle Mo has dropped, and The Factor has us scratching our heads. He may have displaced a palate, and both of the runners mentioned may need a little shorter distance.

I am still looking for a solid pace to set up closers. Dialed In has the look, but there are a few new names such as Nehro and Archarcharch that are beginning to make their way onto my trifecta.  I still like the connections, and Zito is due to jump up and unleash his next big horse. He is lightly raced, and right now they may play into his hands well. He has not shown that “ultra-peak” showing, and there is plenty left in the tank. Just give him pace, and Julien will find a way to get a trip.