Numbers Don’t Lie

by Ed Meyer

posted on May 3, 2011 in Educational Articles, Handicapping, Kentucky Derby | 3 Comments >>

EquationIf you have heard of the “Dosage Figure” and wondered what it was all about…..Here is the dope. Or, the math that will make your head hurt. But, we are going to break it down, and you should follow with an open mind.

Dr. Steven Roman figured a way to assign certain stallions a numerical figure that would translate how fast a horse could potentially turn out. Pedigree analysis has always been more prominently figured in Europe than the United States. But, thanks to Dr. Roman, we have a gauge to measure potential.

A horse with an index number beginning with a 1 or a 2 would have heavy stamina for long distances. Runners with a 3 or 4 could be counted on being a brilliant speed favoring runner. Since 1929, only four winners have had a dosage number over a four. ( 1998 – Real Quiet 5.29), ( 1999 – Charismatic 5.22), (2005- Giacomo 4.33) and ( 2009 – Mine that Bird 5.40). There is only one horse this year that is higher than a four – Nehro / 4.33.

If you are a fan of price runners. Odd years have been doing well as of late:

1999 – Charismatic – $64.60

2001- Moanrchos – $23.00

2005 – Giacomo – $102.60

2007 – Street Sense – $11.80

2009 – Mine that Bird – $103.20

2011 –  $  ????

There it is, a little number magic to keep you up at night. I would factor in the Dosage numbers as a background to your handicapping, and I would stick with what you do in a claiming $20k race. Of course you will take in class, works, and connections. But, don’t outsmart yourself and get too tricky….

Good luck, and pay attention to the weather in Kentucky this week.

3 Responses to “Numbers Don’t Lie”

  1. SKEPTIK says:

    This would be a more interesting post if you explained how many total ENTRANTS since 1929 have had a dosage number over 4. Having only 4 winners in that long a time span is not good support for your argument.

  2. Dangerous dan says:

    To skeptic this isnt an argument its info. Bottom line to the derby in my opinion is you need a distance horse with dirt ability with as clean a trip as possible with a little luck. That equals winner. Ive never used dosage as a reason to bet or not bet a horse but I do remember a few derbys when if you would have boxed the lowest dosage horses you would have had the trifecta. I dont remember which years but I believe it may have been the year that sea hero won. Great info ED.

  3. Ed says:

    No argument ever….

    Just some data to add into your handicapping….Dr. Roman invented a figure as a gauge.

    Best of luck, and looking forward to tonight as I will break down the card with Dangerous Dan Moore. Tune in !!

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