If you have heard of the “Dosage Figure” and wondered what it was all about…..Here is the dope. Or, the math that will make your head hurt. But, we are going to break it down, and you should follow with an open mind.
Dr. Steven Roman figured a way to assign certain stallions a numerical figure that would translate how fast a horse could potentially turn out. Pedigree analysis has always been more prominently figured in Europe than the United States. But, thanks to Dr. Roman, we have a gauge to measure potential.
A horse with an index number beginning with a 1 or a 2 would have heavy stamina for long distances. Runners with a 3 or 4 could be counted on being a brilliant speed favoring runner. Since 1929, only four winners have had a dosage number over a four. ( 1998 – Real Quiet 5.29), ( 1999 – Charismatic 5.22), (2005- Giacomo 4.33) and ( 2009 – Mine that Bird 5.40). There is only one horse this year that is higher than a four – Nehro / 4.33.
If you are a fan of price runners. Odd years have been doing well as of late:
1999 – Charismatic – $64.60
2001- Moanrchos – $23.00
2005 – Giacomo – $102.60
2007 – Street Sense – $11.80
2009 – Mine that Bird – $103.20
2011 – $ ????
There it is, a little number magic to keep you up at night. I would factor in the Dosage numbers as a background to your handicapping, and I would stick with what you do in a claiming $20k race. Of course you will take in class, works, and connections. But, don’t outsmart yourself and get too tricky….
Good luck, and pay attention to the weather in Kentucky this week.