Free Pick-Four Selection – Churchill Downs

by Ed Meyer

posted on June 18, 2011 in Free Picks and Tips, | No Comments >>

Nothing like this past year in the bluegrass.  Nothing like the fresh smell of a humid rain as it falls gently on the oval in Louisville. So, with that in mind. You may want to check the weather, and you can always change your EZ – Win forms with the click of a button to get a brand new set of winners tailored for the track condition.

Rain is predicted, and it may get ugly at times. There is a sweet pick-four at Churchill, and it is an all-stakes venture.

Churchill Downs

Race #9 – G-3 Jefferson Cup – 1 1/16 turf

#4 – Banned ( 7-5)

This colt is by Kitten’s Joy, and he is a monster turfer. Jose Lezcano in the irons for this fella, and he wins 18% on the green. I would look for some “give” to the ground and his past looks to fit. He is going the powerful 3-off the layoff run, and huge score in the American Turf at CD. Look at the great races on good and yielding courses. I see him getting down and dirty, and stalking just off the pace in this heat.

Race #10 – G-3 Matt Winn Stakes – 1 1/16

#2 – Infrattini – ( 4-1)

Corey Lanerie in the saddle, and Paul McGee brings him ready. 2nd off a layoff, and appears to have the breeding and the liking for the turf. In tight down the lane last out, and with a clean trip could relish the off going.

#3 – Wilburn – ( 3-1)

Mike Smith in town for Steve Asmussen. He is 1/1 on the CD oval, and looks to like the wet. Nice stalker here by Bernadini, and is a 33% winning sire in the mud. Look for a stalking ride, and a pounce at the quarter pole.

#8 – Joe Vann – ( 7-2)

Speedster here for Pletcher. J.J. Castellano is up, and he can wire them if speed is holding in the slop. Notice that I am planning for rain. It rained late on Friday, and more was expected. The front covered most of the state, and if the track comes up dry and fast. All you have to do is use the change of weather tab. This guy can jump on the hook and not look back. Winner of the Illinois Derby, and tried to roll in the Peter Pan. Try and catch him!

Race #11- G-3 Regret Stakes – 1 1/8 turf

#1 Bizzy Caroline – ( 6-1)

McPeek brings this gal with Manny Cruz in the irons. A daughter of Afleet Alex, and loves the wet turf. I would look for a good trip, and a heady ride from this super rider.

#4 Holidaysatthefarm – ( 8-1)

Been off for 3 months, and Tom Proctor and Lezcano hook up in here. Nicely maturing gal by Smarty Jones, and she has shown great ability on the off going turf. The fancy words would be the “ground with some cut to it.” Toss out the last race, as she checked HARD! – Look for better day for a rider who is 43% ITM on the weeds.

#5 Kathmanblu – ( 7-2)

3rd off the shelf for McPeek and Leparoux. Go back and see how nasty she could be on the wet turf. I like her overall, and I think she may be one that could run on anything.

Race #12 – G-1 – Stephen Foster – 1 1/8

#3 – Apart – ( 5-1)

Leparoux in the house for Al Stall ( 20%). 2nd time since the Pimlico day race. 3/5 ITM at CD, and is 1/1 on the off-going. I like his training, and Leparoux was warming up on Friday night winning 5 on the card.

#9 – Duke of Mischief – ( 6-1)

Nice horse by Graeme Hall. Jersey Joe Bravo in the saddle, and he did not make the flight for nothing. 3/4 ITM on the off going, and should enjoy the “goo.”

#10 Giant Oak – ( 7-2)

Bridgmohan up for Chris Block. 3rd off, and is a nice closer. Was 8-wide and rolling last out, and I would look for a repeat with a cleaner trip.

#11 – Mission Impazzible – ( 9-2)

J.J.Castellano for Pletcher. 2/3 ITM on the off, and is a classy colt by Unbridled’s Song. Has the ability to stay up close and make it tough. I am looking for a pace factor, and a tough to catch colt if left alone.

So, there is a rain-soaked Kentucky pick-four. If the sky is clear, then all bets are off and you should check back to the EZ-Win forms for guidance on a fast oval. The total damage for this wager will be as follows:

50-cent – $18

$1 version will be – $36

I would always punch out a 50-cent ticket and repeat. This allows you to beat the taxman, and get max value. Best of luck, and take an umbrella. If not, then you will be in for a summer day under the Twin Spires.

Best of luck !