Race Analysis for Fair Grounds

by Horstradamus

posted on February 14, 2012 in Free Picks and Tips, Horse Racing, News, WinningPonies.com | No Comments >>

A great betting race is coming up at the Fair Grounds on Thursday, February 16th.  The 9th race on the card is a 1 mile event on the turf for maidens 3, 4, and 5 years old.  Though this race is an open event all 13 entrants are males.  What makes this race so attractive to horseplayers is that it has a large field and the competition is so evenly matched it is hard to separate the favorites from the longshots.  This is also the race that you can bet the Super Hi-5, although picking the first five finishers in order is an almost impossible task this bet provides consistently high payouts usually $10,000 or more for a $1 ticket.


Here is a look at each and every entrant for you to make a competent handicapping decision.


1. Doozer 9/2


With two lifetime starts this 4-year-old doesn’t have much experience and his last attempt was under identical race conditions on January 4th.  In that start he finished 5th after going wide around the first turn and expending all his energy before heading into the home stretch.  Speed figures are moving in the right direction but may not be enough to get the job done here.


2. Dynabrook 8/1


Comes back to the turf, his preferred surface after a failed attempt over the poly track at Turfway park last time out.  Away from the track for more than 60 days, this horse could win at a big price for trainer Ralph Nicks who’s runners are in the money 41% of the time after a layoff.

Fairgrounds Horse Racing

3. Forgotten Vow 12/1


Outran his odds of 16/1 by finishing fourth in his debut on the main track at Woodbine last December while dealing with a horrible trip.  Breeding does not suggest he’ll be well suited for the turf, but he has speed and ability.


4. Hy Lime Time 7/2


Has had 12 chances to break his maiden and has come very close on many of those occasions.  This horse has good speed but his inability to win under similar conditions time and time again are a strike against him.  Will be little value on the tote board if he is 2nd or 3rd choice.


5. Encyclical 3/1


This likely post time favorite has done well under these conditions twice before finishing 2nd and 4th respectively in his last two outings.  Low percentage connections don’t exude confidence.  Last four speed figures have been nearly identical so he’s likely to run well but not well enough to win.

6. Pazitively Perfect 5/1


Neil Howard is a great trainer and has been having a good meet at the Fair Grounds with an 18% win rate.  However, his turf stats are another story.  With only 7% wins from 71 starts he hasn’t been very successful on the grass.


7. Al Musaddad 12/1


It’s not often that you can get 12/1 on a horse ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan who has been the hottest jock in New Orleans with a 20% win record.  However, this horse hasn’t even been close to hitting the board in his 3 lifetime starts.  Trainer Dan Peitz is switching this horse to the grass for the first time after a 2 month layoff and may know something that the public doesn’t.  Watch the board carefully on this one and get a bet down at a big price.


8. Purgenality 12/1


Only two lifetime starts were on dirt at six furlongs and now trainer Alic Cohn has ordered a stretch out and surface change for this four-year-old gelding.  Hopefully this horse has learned from his first two starts after getting off slow.  With a clean break this horse could easily outrun his longshot odds.


9. Gohomebay 10/1


Makes a positive trainer and jock switch for this start after hitting the board for the first time in five lifetime starts last time out at his Fair Grounds debut.  Does best when stalking the pace right off the lead.  Seems to have a decent chance in this group and likes the course.


10. Doc Heath 20/1


Gets no respect on the morning line for finishing 3rd last time out against $30k maiden claimers.  Average speed figures are well below par to be competitive here.


11. Paroled 20/1 (AE)


This long shot could have a piece of the action if he draws in off the also-eligible list. His breeding suggests he’ll like the grass and after three failed attempts on the dirt he’s likely to improve with the switch to turf.


12. Starter 6/1 (AE)


Could be a factor if he gets to the starting gate thanks to hot connections and a good outing last time against similar competition albeit on the dirt.  Not sure if he’ll take to the grass though.


13. Burke’s Book (MTO)


Make sure this horse is in your exotics if the race goes off the turf.  Albert Stall is a great trainer with a 24% hit rate, among the highest at the Fair Grounds.  With a better break from the starting gate this time around he could be more of a factor in this race than in his lone start at  Parx in December.