First Thoughts On The Preakness

by Ed Meyer

posted on May 14, 2012 in General Discussion, Handicapping, Horse Racing, | No Comments >>

What to do, what to do….. We have all been looking over the replay of the Derby for the 1,000th time. Every running makes Mario Gutierrez look like Eddie Arcaro, and Bodemeister was the speed of speed. With a better trip, Went The Day Well could have been a major player. So, toss all this in the bag of tricks, and I’ll bet you’ll come out more confused than ever.

Forty-six runners have won two legs of the Triple Crown. This begin in 1877 with Cloverbrook, and last with Big Brown in 2008. With that little nugget in mind, I’ll Have Another does not have the easiest of tasks. Doug O’Neill gave notice in the Derby that his stable needs to be taken seriously. Mr. Reddam has ice-water running through his veins keeping a Hastings Park rider in the irons. Now, that kind of loyalty is not found everyday. According to the Courier-Journal, his connections really like what they are seeing. Doug O’Neill said that he has good energy, and a great appetite. These are all good signs for the 46-year-old jinx to go down with a little racing luck.

Bodemeister may be getting ducked by a few runners. Could you blame anyone after the blazing fractions to the top of the lane ? This Virginia-bred for Baffert can put out their lights. I really think he will be a force to reckoned with down the road. With five races to his resume, they have been spaced about one month apart. This may be a tough task, but if he is half as tough as he appears this may be the first VA-bred since Hansel to take this race. But, with all due respect, I will pass as I really see no value. Plenty of class, but the odds will take a beating.

Went The Day Well took my bulk of cash in the Derby. At 27-1, how could you pass up Johnny Velasquez for Graham Motion?  He was 2nd in a pair of turf events across the pond. The Vinery / Spiral really made me take notice. He ran so green, and J.V. patiently guided him home in a teaching moment. He wore the blinkers for the first time in the Derby, and closed from 17th to be 4th. I am giving him a pass, or at least giving myself one more chance to watch his skills. He has six races to his credit, and I liked the way he finished up inside of the montser Dullahan. With his plans for the Belmont, I am beginning to lean in W.T.D.W’s direction. He is learning, and with a little cleaner trip I think this New York-bred may get right in a hurry.

These are my target-three-runners at this time. I know, there is no big news here. But, we may be able to find mega-value with the third and fourth ends of the gimmicks. I will be buckling down with my E-Z Win Forms to get the scoop. It doesn’t matter about the win odds, as you may still be able to take that big vacation when you cash on this race. I see the Derby winner running very well at the top of the lane, and when the rider looks over his right shoulder he will see the Team Valor colors getting closer by the stride. It will be a good one, and the race could prove to be as much fun as a day with Kegasus in the infield.