If you have used the E-Z Win Forms, and found your sweet-spot in finding value. It is always a good thing and go back to the basics. Just like in school, it’s always good to see if you could use or apply the information. I go back from time-to-time and see if I am making the best of the information.
There are many tools the information offers, and when I go back and re-examine the data. I may have left some money on the table. – It is not second-guessing myself. Going back to examine how you could better utilize your handicapping data is the core of every successful handicapper. Here is a sample of how I put the data to use.
Aqueduct – Race #2 – Thursday
Rule #1 has held true, and if you followed the tier levels. There would been a nice payoff headed your way. If you looked no further than the top tier level, you would have scored an exacta, quinella, trifecta, and superfecta. – The total payoff came out to be a sweet $312.10. – Another key tool in my handicapping box is Rule #4 – workouts. I was between the top three, and all held merit. But, the factor that sent to me to use this runner on top was the two works since her last race.
Aqueduct – Race #3 – Thursday
Once again, I didn’t look past the tier levels. I used the chalk on top, as she had a 53 ++ Last Race Rating. When I see the (++) symbol, this alerts me that a huge race is coming. When Dowager won by over 11 lengths, I was glad I didn’t play the game of “try and beat the chalk.” Instead, I used the top tier choices, and went to work on the third tier level runners. I used the top tier level runners, but the double ++ symbol led me to key the the chalk instead of making a part-wheel. I didn’t question my choice, and stayed on path. I used the next tier level of four runners, and made a small superfecta of 1 with 4 with – 3,5,6,7. – It came home with a $2.20 horse on top, and paid $252.50. - A pretty good payoff in a race dominated by the chalk.
When I am handicapping, the “Handicapping Icons” can be great help. There are so many times I have overlooked the obvious, and it has cost me some good payouts. They are all really helpful, as they grab my attention and start me in the right direction. Pay close attention to what is happening with the runners. Take Dowager, when the “Monster Workout” icon appeared, it was just another reason to key her instead of making a more costly part-wheel.
Some of my personal favorites are ” First Time Turf, and Should Improve” icons. First Time Turf gets me to examining how the barn does with turf runners, have there been any works on the sod, and how is the rider’s R.O.I on the green? Should Improve means that a runner had an excuse in their last outing. Maybe it was a bad start, getting bumped into the first turn, or shuffled back as they made the final turn. Maybe the runner needed a race, and you may have gotten caught in a trap. The icon helps me take notice of the comment lines, and I go back and watch the race replays and read the charts closely.
There have been times I had the answer right in front of my face and didn’t see it. I was trying to overlook, or not follow the numbers and icons. You have it when you begin shaping up the race, and there is no excuse for jumping ship. Just follow the tier levels, and begin your handicapping from there. I enjoy the detailed rider/trainer stats. Many times they have been a deciding factor, and it’s just another tool I use in putting my tickets together. There is a HUGE weekend coming, and it’s up to you on how you want to handle it. Don’t over-think the race, and allow the data to guide you. This will allow for less time breaking down the race, and more time deciding how you are going to put it to work. Best of luck from your friends at Winning Ponies. “May your winners be many, and your photos be few!”