It’s All In The Numbers

Most of us hated math class. Notice I said, MOST. There are handicappers who dive into the numbers with a pencil and scratch pad, while others develop and test algorithms to see if a runner is worth the risk. There are handicappers that have been working on their own pace figures for years, and most are still tweaking out the bugs 20-years later. Winning Ponies has been crafting predictions longer than some have been handicapping. The best part of the day is when you arrive at your selections from pouring over material. The E-Z Win forms do the leg work, and the ball is in your court to determine how you’ll put it in play. It was Spiral Day, and I haven’t missed a wagering opportunity for Turfway Park in 20 years. My plan was to use the top four E-Z Win selections and put them in action. Here is the recap of my day.

Race #2 - I boxed the top three, and used the top selection as a key in the pick three. The top two ran 1-2, and the top selection won keeping my pick three alive. – The exacta paid $18.00

Race #3 – I used the top four in an exacta and a $1 trifecta box. – They ran 1-2-3-4, and the exacta paid $39.40 and the $1 tri came back $46.50. – My pick three is still alive with a $2.80 horse, and a $9.00 runner.

Race #4 – I boxed the top four in an exacta and $1 trifecta. They ran 1-2-3-4, and the exacta paid $44, and the $1 tri came back $55.40. – The pick three paid a small $11.35 for 50-cents.

Race #5 – I boxed the top four selections in an exacta and $1 trifecta, and bet $20 to win on the top selection. – They came back 1-2, and the exacta paid $19.20, my $20 win bet yielded a $46 bonus as the trifecta went south.

All is going well and I start looking ahead. I see two big name riders with Mike Smith and Jose Lezcano on the card. The jock colony on this day was stellar, but these two guys are definitely worth a good look. I’m sticking with the data and making good decisions. Why stop now?

Race #6 – I used the top three and tossed out the 4th pick. They finished the top selection first, and the fourth selection second. My stupidity cost me a $43 exacta. Things happen, and they usually happen when you second guess what is working.

Race #7 – I was blown out of the water with the 5th choice winning costing me an exacta and trifecta. I  thought karma was going to pay me back for being a bone head.

Race #8 – This was a short field and the top selection was a new gelding according to the E-Z Win forms. I just keyed him in a pick four, and went over to watch the basketball game. He scored to pay $3.80. Maybe I’m getting back on track, but too early to tell.  – My ticket was 1 X 4 X 5 X 4 = $40.00 / 50-cents.

Race #9 - I kept up my trifecta and exacta wagers, and both went south. The 4th choice won and paid $13.40. – The pick four was still alive.

Race #10 – The Bourbonette = I didn’t make an exacta or tri in this race, but made a $20 win bet on Jose Lezcano. He wasn’t in the top four, but I felt he was there for a reason. She won and paid $13.40. I was still alive in the pick four, and left money on the table by not using the top four selections per plan. It cost me a $63 exacta, and a $113.60 trifecta.

Race #11 – The Spiral Stakes = I had the pick four going with four runners and got away from my exacta / trifecta wager again. Lady Luck was smiling, and the p-4 hit and paid $680.80 for 50-cents. If I would have played the top four as I started, there would’ve been an $83.80 exacta to go along with my score. But no complaining from this camp!

Players have been trying to figure out the “magic potion” for years. Winning Ponies has made the game more enjoyable, profitable, and taken away the guesswork. If I had stuck to my plan, the day would have went along smoothly. Overall, I can’t be mad. The day was good and there was plenty of money to go around. You can’t cry about money left on the table, but only learn from your mistakes and stick to your plan. – Best of luck!

 

 

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