Coulda’, Woulda’, Shoulda’

Man throwing dollar bills in the air

 

I had a hankering for a bankroll as Keeneland will soon be here, and a week after they close the fall meet we’ll be dancing to the tune of the Breeders’ Cup.  – So, this is the part where I “dig in my jeans and pull out the greens,” and take a few calculated shots at building a nice swollen bankroll that won’t fit in my wallet. – I have $400 that was going into play this past Friday – Saturday.

 

Friday

 

I didn’t have a great deal of time, and was going to my son’s football game. I decided on a $100 place parlay that would last three races. – I downloaded my E-Z Win Forms and went to work. I decided on the Churchill Downs card, and throughout the year I stay up on the Kentucky product. Here is a snapshot of my day using the top tier selection for the three races on the card.

 

Race #1 – #5 – Boomer Six = He was the top tier selection, and sported the best Last Race Rating of 47, and his Composite Score was tied for tops with a 48. He was making a turf – dirt switch noted in the handicapping icons. This was my first place wager = $100 to place = He ran second and paid $6.40 to place ! – That is a start of +$320 for a $220 profit.

 

 

Race #2 – #2 – Hot Buttered Soul = He was the top selection, and owned the best Last Race Rating over the entire field. His handicapping icons showed dropping in class, turf -dirt, and has improved. For the cherry on the sundae he had Sebastian Saez in the irons who has set Kentucky on fire as an apprentice at Ellis Park. The wager was $320 to place on him, and he ran second paying $5.00 ! – This was going better than expected.  = $320 to place came out to be $800 total.

 

Race #7 – #9 – Ten Easy Street = This top selection filly owned the top Last Race Rating and Composite numbers in the field. She showed the layoff of 45 days icon and dropping in class. I knew she was going to be bet down, and I started to sweat a bit. -The wager was $800 to place on her. - She ran second, and paid $2.80 for a total of $1,120.

 

I was happier than a pig in mud and with little time to handicap I felt this was my day. – I was so glad I made the decision to take a shot and started hankering for another bet. I started the day with three races in mind, and I always stick to my guns. – Normally, that is for this handicapper. I started thinking of Keeneland and Breeders’ Cup, and how one more small score would put me over the top. I even started bartering with myself as to take out the initial $100 start-up money as if something went wrong the day would not be lost. – So, we’ll go one more, and take a shot. I was between two runners and they were in the top three tier selections. For my last wager I bet $510 to place and show on the third tier selection playing a little closer to the vest. – Keeneland was going to be visited at least twice in my plans, and I would make it close to the end of the meet to get a feel for the track while charting the entire meet.

 

Race #8 – #4 – Hoosier Spirit = He was the third tier selection and owned the third best Last Race Rating, and sported one of my favorite handicapping icons “Monster Workout.” – The wager was made, my initial investment was taken out, and all that was left was to watch the race. Right about now you know the moral of the story of how the “pigs get fatter and the hogs get slaughtered.” – It holds true for gamblers who lose track of money management, and what brought them this far in the first place.

My horse ran fifth for a loss of my $1,020, and the top tier selection won and paid $4.80 to place and $3.60 to show. – I had made an agreement with myself to use only the top tier selection to place, and at the end of the day I was winning. But, that was not enough as it had the feel of being my day. Well, it was and I didn’t follow my own plan blinded by greed. - By the way, if I had bet the $510 to place and show on the top tier selection, it would have been a (+$2,142) dollars on the day from a $100 investment.

 

I was so mad, and wanted to kick myself. Good or bad, I usually hold to my plan. But not on this day. I decided to take a little break, and come back this Friday – Saturday and try again. Maybe this time greed won’t get me off my plan, and I’ll stick to my guns no matter the outcome. – Winning Ponies came through in flying colors, it was my lack of discipline that blinded me from a blowout day. How many times can you say you would have won $2,142 from a $100 beginning bankroll ? – ” The pigs get fatter and the hogs get slaughtered.” – This hog wants to be a happy pig this week, so be sure and check back on my progress. – Best of luck, and stick to your plans !

2 Responses to “Coulda’, Woulda’, Shoulda’”

  1. Charles Hoover says:

    Mr. Meyer: Gotta love it. See your post 9-17 rule #3. You renew my faith in why I love the track.

  2. Ed says:

    Mr. Hoover –

    You are correct ! – The greed bug bites from time to time and I paid the price for being a bonehead. – I sure hope this is all out of my system before Breeders’ Cup !

    Best of luck.

    Ed

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