Santa Anita – Wednesday Mar 17th

Race #2 – #5 Entabeni (5-2).

Joe Talamo in the irons for John Sadler. they win at 23%, and 38% ITM as a team.  Making a turf-synthetic change, and has not raced for 10 months. Dropping down two classes, and Sadler is ITM 53% on this move. I would look for an up close or stalking trip and watch for the pounce about the 1/8th pole…..

Race #3 – #5 Simply Put (5-2).

Joel Rosario in the saddle for Sadler. They win 22% and 41% ITM. It looks like Sadler’s numbers speak for themselves. 1/2 at Santa Anita, and was a beaten favorite last out where the barn comes back to win 28%. Makes a huge drop in class, and was bumped out of the gate last race. Bejarano opts for the favorite who may win, but to me he looks like a professional maiden. Simply Put, I’ll pass the favorite and head in this direction…..

Race #6 – #1 Bring It Home (12-1).

Alex Solis aboard for Paco Gonzalez. They are traveling one mile on the weeds, and the trainer is 42% ITM, and Solis does pretty well winning 16% and 46% ITM. 2nd time off a layoff, and should enjoy the cutback in distance. The rail is a bonus, and allows for a nice ground saving trip. Her dam had 3 turf winners, and that is a good sign. 1/1 at the mile, and the price is very live. I would try and make the best, and see where it belongs with the tier levels and fire when ready.

Good luck!

Beulah Park

Race #1 – #6 – Pure Stimulus (5-2).

Yuri Yaranga is the pilot for Doug O. Neill. They are winning 22% and 40%, respectively. They make a duo record at 50%, and 100% ITM at Beulah. Shipper from Penn National, and O’Neill wins 18% with his shippers. Maiden claiming to maiden special weight yields a 41% ITM move. The rider is 22% going 6 panels, and 52% ITM. They say the numbers don’t lie, and here they are in black and white. I think 5/2 would be a square price, and you may want to watch the tote board for others that would fit in exotics.

Race #5 – #3 – Lord Carmen (7-2).

Edgar Paucar (18%) up for Charlie Lawson (20%). Jeff Perrin, Paucar’s agent, has been booking his mounts from Australia, as he has been visiting family down under. The runner makes a 2nd start for Lawson and he wins 19%. Was beaten favorite last out, and that is a players’ angle. Lawson wins 26% and 62% ITM. He is 4/6 ITM, if the track comes up gooey, as expected. 2nd start after shipping in from Hawthorne. Last out, he was 5-wide and rolling, and the trip over should benefit him well. Go with confidence as Lawson has been a major player on the Ohio circuit forever.

What are ya’ waiting for?  I see two solid plays that you may want to measure up against the tier levels to see where they lay. I find value to be had on some small circuits, and as players, we have to take whatever we find. This makes for a g0od start to the week.

Good luck!

Tampa Bay

Race #11 – The Tampa Bay Derby

This race is a burrito of options. At first glance, you would love #6 Super Saver, who will offer low odds. That is fine, and he has been bred to enjoy the off-going. I see him to be vulnerable. I don’t want the small odds here. I will wait until he runs at Churchill, and I should do better at the window.

Go one more post out, and I think you have the winner. #7 Odysseus looks very good to me.  Rajiv Maragh is in the saddle for Thom Albertrani. He is winning at 20% at TBD, and Maragh is 1/1 with wins as a ship-in rider. Triple Crown nominated, and was purchased for $250,000 at the Ocala sale. Third time off a layoff, and getting better with each effort. OC – 75,000 is a very tough level. He romped by 15, and had more in the tank. On the morning line he is 7-2, and I see this or more when the gates break. Super Saver looks the real deal, and I think if all goes well, we will be seeing him the first Saturday in May.

Maragh is an underrated rider, and he just had a milestone victory of win number 1,000. Give him time, and you will see a fine career. He sits very well in the saddle, and you will always get your money’s worth when he rides.

This is not the biggest upset in the history of racing if he wins, but he looks good. I think many stables do not want to open up peak too soon. S.S. is a nice animal, but I am hoping to see another strut his stuff to get his picture taken.

I would have had a few Gulfstream runners for you, but after they canceled, I am waiting and watching. Be sure to utilize the change of track condition tab before you download your data. The track crew is the best in the world, and who knows what Mother Nature holds. I would watch and wait, and be sure to check your scratches as WinningPonies is a one-stop shop for all of your information.

Proceed with caution, and enjoy the day of races. Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta are running, and you will want to download data to make your multi-race exotics one-step smaller. It would be plain bad if you rooted against the gals. I want to see them hook-up for $5 million in the Apple Blossom, and Saturday kicks it all off. So, buckle up and get ready. A big day is heading your way.

Good luck!

Aqueduct

Race #1 – #5 – Wicked Diva (7-5).

Ramon Dominguez is in the saddle, and that answers many questions. Mike Hushion is the trainer, and they roll at a staggering 67% win clip, and a hot 83% ITM. Impressive winner at 5 1/2 f, and it was against state-bred maidens. Ramon wins 25% with his sprinters, and looks to be in a perfect spot. I could go on and on, but if you need to be talked into Dominguez outside of the details, you will get beat more times than not. He is really special, and history will be kind to him as his career goes forward.

Race #4 – #5 – Tomorrows Roses (5-1).

Luzzi is in the irons, and Richard Violette in the role of conditioner. 2nd off of the layoff is a great player’s angle, and 3/6 ITM at the “Big A.” A nice stalker, who was roused down the lane last out. Jock change from Gabe Saez to Mike Luzzi, and he rode this mount many times in the past. I like the price, and Luzzi always gives a solid effort.

Race #8 – #6 – Understatement (8-5).

David Cohen is between the ears, and Todd Pletcher is the trainer. He is heading for the year that people tend to talk about for years to come. 1/1 ITM at the distance. Uncontested last out, and looks to enjoy the oval. Been working well in the morning, and that is a very good sign of being regular. Cohen is very underrated, and Pletcher needs no pitch. I think this may be his year in a big way.  Add them together, and they win 23%, and 54% ITM.  I would look for a repeat.

Enjoy the sunshine, and know that spring is coming quickly.

Good luck!

Race #2 – #6 – Slewbiscuit – (5-2).

Ocatavio Reyes has the call for Ivan Vasquez. The runner happens to be a bit of a horse-for-the-course, 12 /19. Add in that he is 5/8 at the distance ITM, and you have a nice look. 2nd off a layoff, and no matter what level, I love this angle. So does the trainer, who is 38% ITM on this move. Won his last race, and that yields a 21% clip. 3rd off of the Turfway poly, and we have ourselves a player. I like this gelding, and he may offer some action.

Race #5 – #2 – The Mayor – (2-1).

Dean “The Dream” Sarvis in the irons for Dougie Cowans. They win 52% together, and are a staggering 81% ITM as a team. I should stop right there, as if you can beat that. Go ahead and get it… Both are good guys, and they try very hard at any track. 1/1 at Beulah, and 1/1 at the distance. 2nd off New York’s inner track, exits off a win. Stretches out from 6 panels to a flat mile.  I look for a pace dictation, and a catch me if you can outlook.

Race #6 – #1 – Lord Carmen – (9-5).

Edgar Paucar will have long done his routine by the time this race runs. That would be a series of yoga-like moves and mental stretching. Trained by the “Silver Fox” Charlie Lawson. They are 24% and 48% ITM as a team. Drops down a class, and that gives the trainer a 24% edge over the company. He ships in to win 20%, and he heads in from Chicago. I don’t have a clue, but all horses that have galloped around Hawthorne have gone on to do better. 18 days since his last race, and Lawson has the red-hot rail, where 25% have won on the hoop.

Good luck!

When we had Blood Horse Editor Tom LaMarra on our show, he said : “I like to wait until the last minute to make my final decisions.” I think if you are betting a few ducats on the Future Book, then speculate. If not, just take a breath. I am trying, and it gets harder every year. I have noticed that I do the best when I wait and take the majority of races in fully. It seems that if I start over-thinking, down the tubes I will go.

Here are a few that I have seen that deserve a thought at this point:

Rule - Pletcher is the trainer, and he is loaded this year. Didn’t we say that same thing in past years? His runner is versatile and runs on everything but blacktop and broken glass. It would not surprise me to see him appear at the $500,000 Lane’s End Stakes at Turfway Park, for a soft spot at a big pot.

Eskenderya – The “Todd-Squad” once again. Big winner in Florida, and you have to start thinking after that 8 – plus length victory, that we would see him down the road….

Super Saver - This one must be hot. My dad loves him! Even though he keeps calling him Super Baby, he looks good. Wait until he goes to New York, before buying your stock. I just hope Calvin Borel gets the mount. I think he would fit just fine.

Eightyfiveinafifty – I need one more race before I keep or scrap. A 17 1/2 length victory makes me think that all of those million dollar offers could not have been wrong. Just let him heal and wait…….

One to watch for the long haul is Aikenite.  This may be a slow developer, and the extra time may bring him along at the right time. The way he wanted to run only gave me outside hope. This is a long shot hope at this time, and only time will tell.. We can always scratch him off the list later.

There it is. I am not ready to compile a list, and I am on a scouting mission. If I see something, you will know. For me, the longer I wait, the better I will do… The boys at WP have held their own over the years, and if you keep them in mind, I think you may be ahead of the game.

Super Saver: One of the many Kentucky Derby hopefuls trained by Todd Pletcher. The son of Maria’s Mon has been training well, but is not scheduled to debut as a 3-year-old until next month. Next race: Gotham Stakes on March 6 at Aqueduct.

Drosselmeyer: His fourth place finish in the Risen Star wasn’t too bad, making up nearly 2 1/2 lengths in the stretch and losing by less than 1 3/4 lengths. It was the son of Golden Ballet’s second trip on dirt after winning in allowance company at Gulfstream. Next race: Louisiana Derby on March 27 at Fair Grounds.

Buddy’s Saint: Two race winning streak was snapped for son of Saint Liam, when he had a disastrous start in the Fountain of Youth. Jockey Jose Lezcano said right after his ninth place finish on Feb. 20: “The other horses came in like nothing (on the first turn). I was already in a spot, and they came in and killed my horse; put him into the rail.” Next race: Florida Derby on March 20 at Gulfstream.

Jackson Bend: Runner-up in Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth needs to pick it up in next outing. Last victory in a route came last year as a top 2-year-old at Calder. Three strikes and the son of Hear No Evil is out of the Top 10.  Next race: Florida Derby.

Dublin: Poor showing in his last race in November led to successful epiglottis surgery. The son of Afleet Alex came from far back in the Risen Star, after starting slowly and racing wide off the far turn, to make up 3 1/4 lengths in the stretch to finish second. He plainly ran out of ground in the 1 1/16-mile contest. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is also breathing easier: “The further the better for him. He’s a big, imposing individual with a long stride.”

Discreetly Mine: One of many Kentucky Derby hopefuls trained by Todd Pletcher that shows promise. This son of Mineshaft captured the Risen Star on the front end when no foe wanted the lead. Tactical speed is a plus as he progresses. Next race: Louisiana Derby.

Rule: This Pletcher trainee is a horse for all tracks. The son of Roman Ruler has won four in a row. His victories were on Belmont’s sweeping track, Delta Downs’ fast and sloppy surfaces and Tampa Bay Downs’ quirky oval. Next race: Undecided.

Conveyance: One of trainer Bob Baffert’s stars is unbeaten in four outings, following his three-quarters of a length triumph in the Southwest Stakes. Transition to dirt went smoothly, but one question remains for the son of Indian Charlie: Can he get 1 1/4 miles? Next race: UAE Derby in Dubai March 27, Wood Memorial at Aqueduct April 3, or Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn April 10.

Lookin at Lucky: Baffert’s pride and joy hasn’t debuted as a sophomore, but has worked well. Despite being considered the top dog going 5 for 6, including runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in a horrible trip, the son of Smart Strike has time to get fit. Only negative: not racing on dirt with only two Kentucky Derby preps likely. Next race: San Felipe at Santa Anita or Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 13.

Eskendereya: An impresive 8 1/2-length victory in the Fountain of Youth puts the Pletcher trainee at the top of the 3-year-old ladder. The son of Giant’s Causeway has tactical speed and can win just off the pace, like he did Feb. 20, or can come from a bit out of it to grind down his foes. He’s 3 for 3 on dirt. Next race: Florida Derby.

Rain is expected for the “Big A“, and we can look at some plays that may need to be hooked up with tier runners who hold a price. Some of these are not going to burn the barn down, but take what you can get….. Would you walk by $5.60 laying on the ground?  I thought not…..

Race #1 – #7 – Gimmeanotherwink – (2-1)

Channing Hill has the call for John Terranova, who is rolling at 26%. Together they make a 29% win rate and a 50% ITM call as winners.  2/2 at Aqueduct ITM, and that is a nice look. 1/1 over a track that is labeled as “off.” This is the 3rd off the layoff, and makes a stretch out to a mile from 6 panels. This barn moves at a 14% win rate, and 46% ITM on the distance change. There is a drop in class, and that only makes the runner more attractive.

Race #3 – #5 – Mt. Glttermore – (2-1).

Ramon Dominguez in the saddle for Gary Contessa, and they team up at 71% ITM. This is a 3rd off a layoff, and drops back in class. Checked at the break last out, makes a huge rider change, 3/3 on the soft track, and makes a drop in class as well. 2/2 ITM at Aqueduct, and has worked two bullets in a row coming into this heat. I think all systems are go!

Race #5 – #1 – Three in the Bag – (8-5).

C.C Lopez in the irons for Linda Rice, and they have a sweet 46% ITM record together. Been off since Saratoga, and is 9/12 at Aqueduct. 5/7 on the off going, and runs very well off of a break. Take a look at the last race where he was claimed for 25k from Anthony Dutrow. Today, he makes start for 16k…. 6/6 ITM at the distance, and if you go back almost one year to the day, he won by 4 lengths off a layoff.

Good luck!

Race #2 – #10 – Worldbridge (4-1).

Yuri Yuraga is in the saddle for trainer Eric Reed.  They are winning 27% and 37% respectively. Team them up, and they win 60%, and have an 80% clip ITM. You gotta love that… This three-year-old seems to love the off going. He is 2/2 on the off going, and cuts back from 1 mile to six panels. Reed scores at 20% on this move. Rain is expected in the area, and all you have to do is hope that the price is not knocked down. The #10 hole may help, but he should be up close and pounce on the field as only Yuri can do…. Eric Reed is a dangerous man, and had a second place finish in the G-1 Alabama this year at Saratoga. He is head and shoulders above the crowd up there, and class will show today.

Race #6 – #7 – Favorite Valay (5-2).

Ramon Luna is in the irons for Raquel Castro, who is winning at 36%. He is making his third start off a layoff, and is 1/1 ITM at Beulah. This PA-bred can, and has, seen better competition.  2/3 over an off-surface and rain is expected in Ohio. Beaten favorite last out, and this trainer takes that pretty serious to come back and win 43%. There was a very nice mild rally last out, as I went back and watched the race replay. There will have to be some bit of pace to make the race, and Luna is equipped at getting them out the gate, as he used to ride quarter horses in Mexico as a youth. So, I would look for a better break, and stalk off the pace down the lane.

Sometimes you have to take what you get. I would dig deep and be sure to change the weather tab on Beulah to an off track. If the rain does not roll in, they have had about 3 feet of snow that is melting rapidly in Ohio.  Be sure to connect the dots, and get a piece of the multi-race gimmicks to spread out for maximum value.

Good luck!

Aqueduct – Race #1 – #2 – Linda’s Kisses (4-1).

Anna Napravnik has the call for Billy Badgett. They are ITM together at a nice rate of 24%. This runner is 2/4 ITM in New York, and is making a second run off a layoff for Badgett, who wins 24% on this move. He is dropping big time, and the blinkers come off. 2nd time off of a layoff and the barn hits 33% ITM with this change-up. Rosie wins 43% lately for Badgett, and is 1/1 at the 1- 70 distance. I like the look and the short term success may mean things are on the change.

2nd Race – #4 – Calvello – (5-2).

Channing Hill is the rider, and John Hertler is the conditioner. 2/3 ITM at Aqueduct, and makes a huge drop in class. This yields a 20% ITM for the Hertler barn, and possibly looks to keep going on this move. His runner is going from a sprint to a route, and Hertler wins at 29% ITM with maiden claimers.

Race #5 – #4 – Wicked Diva (9-5).

Ramon Dominguez is between the ears for trainer Mike Hushion. Dominguez and Hushion team up for a red-hot 60% win rate, and 80% ITM as a team. Today he gets first blinkers, and that usually lends for a bit more focus. Hushion wins at 19% on this equipment move, and is dropping into state-bred company. There was a late gain last out, and he is on the mark to show much better facing his own state brothers. This 4-year-old gal is primed to show her best, and this race gives her the edge. I have to like 9-5, even though you won’t get rich off the win end. But this does lead me to dig into the tier levels for other prices.

Good luck!

Tampa Bay Downs – Race #10 – G-3 – Sam Davis Stakes

This race may be a factor in your Future Book Wagers.  It is a 1 1/16th, and it seems to me that more and more barns are heading to Tampa to try out their runners for bigger and better things to come.

#6 Uptowncharlybrown (2/1) looks to be double tough in here. You have the services of red-hot Daniel Centeno in the irons, and is 2/2 at TBD. There is plenty of speed to run at if the pace falls apart, and the rider knows the oval. Centeno and Alan Seewald are batting 29% together.

I am going to go away from this angle, and lean towards the rail for #1 Rule (8-5). John Velasquez for Todd Pletcher. Winner of G-3 Delta Jackpot in the slop, and this son of Roman Rule is 4/4 on a fast dirt track. I would look for an up close running style, and should draw off to get his dance card stamped.

Santa Anita – Race #6 -  G-2 – Robert B. Lewis S.

#2  Tiz Chrome (6/5) 2/2 with wins in a lifetime, and is 1/1 over a synthetic track. The son of Tiznow should show versatility. The stretch out to 1 1/16th from 6 1/2 panels, Bob Baffert a 21%  trainer, and Gomez is in the saddle, at a winning clip of 22%.

The works have shown well, and he is bred to run long on the dam side (Woodlawn Shadow). I see his speed and breeding being a big factor. It should be an asset down the lane, and I would use him with #1 Dave in Dixie, and #3 American Lion.

There it is, and it is yours to take to the window. Be sure to check them against the tiers, and you can’t go wrong.

Good luck!

I like the play. The track offers value. It has the ability to pay off, and if you watch your P’s and Q’s, there may be a little jack in your wallet at the end of the day…

Race #3 – #1 – Cowboy Fury (3-1).

Dean Sarvis has the call for Dougie Cowans. They are winning at 23% and 34% respectively. As a team, they win 38% together. They are 1/1 at Beulah, and is second time off a layoff. This is a player’s angle. The last out with a win allows Cowans to roll back into the winner’s circle at a 28% rate. Heavily bet last out, and Cowans does well with this angle. Shipped in from Penn National, and running at Beulah has been a nice answer. The bullet work was a signal of good things to come, and the jock/trainer combo gives me confidence. 4/4 ITM, and comes off a win in the last two weeks.

Race #4 – #1 – Garden Dancer (3-1).

Yuri Yuranga in the irons at a 20% rate, and Woodard is rolling at 38%. Add them up, and they win at a 28% rate, and 63% ITM.  Horse for the course, going 4/6 at Beulah. Bobbled at the start in the last effort, and was a beaten favorite. The combo is 8/9 ITM over the last 14 days, and if both parts of the entry go forth, I think they will get a huge piece of the pie. Woodard has the ability to get win and place in here, and it would not surprise me at all. 3-1 is a square price, and go with confidence when Woodard saddles at Beulah.

Race #5 – #5 – S.R.Four Queens (2-1).

Dean Sarvis is up for Cowans, and as I said, they can get it done. Running off a 3rd time layoff angle. A filly for the course, 5/5 ITM at Beulah. Impressive speedster who has faced much tougher and has plenty of back class. Sarvis can flat out over-power, and has the ability to rule the roost if you let him. Anytime you see Cowans in a race, you can feel good about your wager.

Good luck!

With the weather around the country, I am hoping that Santa Anita does not get as much rain as expected. Here are a few that need a glance before making your final decisions.

Race #3 – #4 – Battle Of Hastings (5-2).

A very solid gelding that catches your eye. Tyler Baze has the call for Jeff Mullins.  They team up to win 29%, and 71% ITM. This gelding is 3/3 ITM at S.A, and has been away from the races for over two months. Mullins wins 20% with layoff runners, and he is dropping down from G-1 company. If the course has some give, I would look for him to come flying in the lane. Baze has ridden him, and knows this mount well. If all goes well, there should be no battle today.

Race #5 – #4 – Dreamt (4-1).

Garret Gomez has the call for Bill Mott. This is her second time racing in the U.S., and second time lasix with a cutback in distance. This filly is 4/9 ITM over the sod, and running in France may have prepped her well for this stake. Her sire, Oasis Dream, was a nice turf runner, and this may carry over to her as they make the downhill turn. I would look for Gomez to stalk just off the pace and pound when they cross the main course. You have to like the price.

Race #9 – #9 – Misremembered (8-5). The Strub Stakes G-2.

Victor Espinoza in the irons for Bob Baffert. They are winning 20% and 21% respectively. They also team up to win 20% and 50% ITM. He is 1/1 at Santa Anita, and 5/6 ITM on the all weather surface. Three off the layoff, and shows a nice bullet work to show readiness. 2/2 ITM at the distance, and that 7 panel race last out leaves you wanting more for this runner. This is the second race on the Pro-Ride off of the Churchill Downs oval. This son of Candy Ride has faced some very nice company, and I think his back class may be the factor for today. I would envision an up-close stalking trip, and after the pace falls apart down the lane, he will assert himself nicely.

As always, check these against the tier levels. I sometimes find myself reversing my moves and using my pick second, after seeing some important tips. Always be sure to check the track condition as Mother Nature is back to some tough love this weekend.

Good luck!

Race #2 – #5 Sinus Rhythm (5-2).

Edgar Paucar is in the saddle for David Ashcraft. They are winning 21%, and 20% respectively. Not a bad deal of action in Columbus. 1/1 at Beulah, and is dropping into conditioned company. The drop at Beulah can make all of the difference in the world. Paucar can get the job done on a three-legged donkey. Makes the move from poly track at Turfway, and if you go back two races ago, you will see a win in his name. I think they are spotting their horses right, and today should be no change in action.

Race #4 – #2 – Hail Victory (15-1).

Octavio Reyes is up for Cenaro Garcia. 1/1 at Beulah is a nice start. Goes from 1 mile to 1 1/16th on the main. Go back three times in his history, and you will see he shipped in from Chicago. That has been the route where more winners have been found the next effort out. He grabbed his win, and then went off to poly track land. This is a speedy gelding and can be tough to reel in if he gets loose. If he does, you will get handsomely rewarded. That part is what you are seeking, and if you go this route, you will want to hook this price up with other predictions.

Race #5 – #5 – Kulka (5-2).

Yuri Yuranga for Joe Woodard. They should call these guys the “cash machine” as they win at a 25% clip. Last out was at Turfway, and now finds himself in lesser company. Woodard knows his game, and Yuranga is his man in the North. He rides Rex Stokes in Kentucky, and they all make a nice team. Ohio looks to fit this mare much better, and she should stand up and be counted today. The middle move last out shows me she is on the right path. I like the combo, and the teamwork is great.

Get yourself some Beulah. This little oval can surprise you and give you some nice early week action.

Best of luck!

Well, let us leave the month with hopes for the spring, and a great day to end the beginning month for 2010. We shall head back to New York where racing will resume.

Race #5 – #2 Raffie’s Dear (7-5).

After that little four plus month vacation, this gelding looks in swing. C.C. Lopez for Steve Asmussen should make the board light up. Going from a sprint to a route, Asmussen wins at a 21% clip. Two races back had a bad spill under Ramon Dominguez.  Going two turns may be refreshing, and can make the race for this guy. I hope the price gets better, and you will want to examine all tier levels to zero in on price plays.

Race #8 – #1 Nite Light (8-5).

Dominguez has the call for Pletcher, and they make a dangerous combo. He was rating very nicely and the rider lost the stick down the lane. This can be the difference between winning and losing. In my opinion, it cost him the race. Exits as a beaten favorite, and this angle yields Pletcher a 28% winner right back. He is 3/3 at The Big “A,” and is making a second start off a break. I like the speed from the rail routine, and you can bet your boots Dominguez will hang on to the whip at the wire. Catch him if you can…..

Race #9 – #10 Authentic Shot (9-5).

Early speed under the handling of the red-hot bug rider. Angel Serpa will make his mark in due time, and trainer David Duggan gives the green light after making the second start off a break. The #11 hole last out did not hurt his chances, and I think the post will not be a factor in here. Second time off a layoff, this barn wins 15%. I would like to find a nice tier level runner that I can pair up a superfecta. This may be the answer as New York gets back in the swing of things. The weather, the abbreviated schedule, and the way the year is flying away. I would look for a score anywhere you can get it.

The prices may not be all-out barn burners. But, I can put down some 40-1 plays that will still be running a week later. I would use these involved with others from your data, and have a walk off January. So take them, and make hay while you can.

Best of luck!

Beulah Park – Race #1 – #1 Rum N Ting (5-1)

Yuri Yaranga is in the saddle for Eric Reed. They have teamed up to win 67%, and that is no laughing matter. Speed from the rail today, and goes from poly to the dirt oval. You can add in the beaten favorite angle last out, and Reed knows where to spot the runners. He is 33% a winner with maiden claimers, and he will make the best of his chances. That you can always count on.

Beulah Park – Race #6 – #6 M S Roxie (3-1)

Victor Urieta Moran is in the irons for Doug Cowans. Cowans is probably the best trainer on the grounds, and he does his talking with his horses. I like his style, and no matter what the price, he always tries with his runners. He brings them on their “A” game. Faced open company last out, and drops back in class into Ohio company. Look for a stalking speed trip, and is 2/2 at Beulah lifetime. Also, don’t ever leave Cowans out of any exotics.

Philly Park – Race #6 – #3 Put it in Writing (9-5)

Trainer Juan Carlos is winning at 45% at Philly. 2nd time off a layoff, and 4/7 ITM. Add in 4/5 at the distance, and that makes it more attractive. He won by 7 3/4 last out, and starter 5 is going to look good on him. The turf to dirt move, and I would look for more of a positive move to the winner’s circle.

We will start our focus in New York on Saturday at Aqueduct.

Go to Race #3 at Aqueduct – The Paumonok Stakes -  #2 Wall Street Wonder (4/1) has caught my eye. This is a 4-year-old colt by City Place, and he is 1/1 at the “Big A” with wins. Channing Hill is aboard for John Terranova. They team up these past two months to win 27% together, and that is a respectable number. He won his last race off a layoff, and Terranova wins 11% coming right back. He was a part of the Baffert barn two back, and this barn wins 24% of the time with non-graded stakes. 2/3 at the distance, and it looks to be the answer. Back in his past, he was over his head and running on the poly and turf. He seemed to relish the inner track in New York, and I would look for another stalking trip again.

Race #9 – Gulfstream Park / The Holy Bull Stakes (G3) -  I think the public is going to be on #9 Jackson Bend (5/2) like a cheap suit. I like this runner, and he is going to try and stretch it out to six-in-a-row.  But, let’s seek some value that may be used in multi-tier wagers, and gander at #6 Winslow Homer (6/1).  Ramon Dominguez is in town, and he is up for Anthony Dutrow. Dutrow is winning at 29%, and Dominguez is already off to a 24% clip in 2010. This grey son of Unbridled’s Song is 3/3 ITM lifetime. I like the way this guy is getting better with each and every start. The one mile distance should be the tonic that he has been asking for. Exits a 12-length victory at Philly Park, and Dutrow ships in with a 29% win clip. He has been working at Palm Meadows, and this can be a vacation spot away from the hustle and bustle of the track. They relax, and get down to business. He has not raced for two months, and Dutrow seems to do well with rested runners. The $310,000 sales purchase price shows me that someone thought something of him. The more I look, the more I like. I wouldn’t be afraid to box up the chalk in exotics as this can be a solid move. I am looking for a runner that has not peaked, but is on the gradual improve. He fits the bill, as he has not made a bad move since taking to the track.

Each week can show us a little glimpse of the future. It is up to us to find out what fits, and what does not. WinningPonies can help with a comprehensive look at the entire field, and factor in every little number. That can be the best part for me, as they pick up the details I may overlook.

Good luck!

We will begin at Beulah in Race #3 – #8 Worldbridge (5-2). Yuri Yaranga is in the saddle for trainer Eric Reed. This colt has not raced in 53 days, and has been training for Reed at Mercury training center. This three-year-old colt can show some speed. Top notch connections and having faced better runners makes him look attractive. Check him out with tier level prices to hook it up in trifectas.

Race #5 – #4 – Trouble Crown (6-1). Wilkin Ortiz is the pilot today. Exits a race as a beaten favorite, and that is one of my big moves to watch. Cap that with the angle of two races off the poly track at Woodbine. It takes a runner a couple of races to get back in road shape after running on the softer going. She was rolling last out, and I think you’ll see more of the same. If you get 6-1, bet early and bet often…..

Race #7 – #3 – Miss Malakia (4-1). She is two out of three with wins at Beulah. Lyndon Hannigan in the irons, and the distance looks to suit her well. 6/9 ITM going two turns, and exits off a nice win. Cheaper horses don’t hold their form as long. They give their all, but you must catch them in an upswing, or one ready to come on. I think we can see another good race coming her way, and you might as well jump on the bus at 4-1.

Enjoy the races, and we will be looking at the weekend as soon as possible.

Santa Anita is the race place, and hopefully this will be the place where you cash out big.

Race #1 – #6 Cee Stone (7/5). An ultra speedy mare with Alonso Quinonez in the saddle. She is dropping in class for trainer Mike Machowsky. Add in blinkers, and a player’s angle of 3rd time off a layoff. I think you will have to fish for the big value by using her in all of the gimmicks. I think she should break to the lead and not look back.

Race #4 – #1 Hockley (9/2). Ahmed Ajtebi for Eoin Harty. If the rider doesn’t sound too familiar, give him time…  He was the one time camel rider who won a Breeders’ Cup race. He is in California to stay, and has high hopes of making it big…  The 1 1/8th turf hits him well, and Harty is 36% ITM on the weeds. This runner is second off of the shelf, and was four wide rolling down the lane last out. After a compromised start, he came lights out down the lane. 4/5 lifetime, and with a hungry rider who wants to make his mark.  That B/C race two back is a long time in his history, and today should be easier.

Race #6 – #5 Exfusion (6-1). Mike Smith is up for Jerry Hollendorfer. 2/2 ITM, and last out bobbled at the break. The extended distance may help the cause, and Smith is everybody’s go-to-guy. He has been facing some nice company in his brief career, and the smart players will see this right off the bat. I see him enjoying the distance, and with a clean trip, a diploma is in his future.

Enjoy your day off work, and use these selections with other tier plays. I always remind you of this, and it is a must before you finalize your plans. You always want to find the max value, and the tiers will show you more than just the favorite. It is up to you to pull it all together and make it happen.

Good luck, and enjoy this great day of racing!

It all begins in California.

Race #3 – G-3 San Rafael -  If all goes well, you should see a white-haired gent smiling with a blue blazer in the winner’s circle. This race has all the looks of a walkover for #3 Conveyance (3-5). Baffert and Gomez team up together, and they are off to a hot start in 2010. This will be his test for the first Saturday in May. A 3-year-old colt by Indian Charlie. He is undefeated, and is 1/1 at Santa Anita. I would look to use him as a single in the P-3 and P-4. I would even hammer him in exactas with #4 Lucky Rave (8-1) and #5 Via Verde (8-1).

Race #5 – G-2 – Santa Ynez Stakes – This heat for three-year-old fillies folded my hands to the #4 Amen Hallelujah (3-1). This is her second start off a layoff, and Chantal Sutherland is up for Richard Dutrow. Cuts back from 1 1/16th – 7f. This gal can stalk em well. Three back, she was in Asmussen’s barn. Dutrow is 46% ITM with stakes runners, and looks to be spotted well. At 3-1, you would think that was chalk. But, if you look closely, you will see some shorter prices in here. But, before you pull the trigger. Check out the tier levels to ensure value.

Race #7 – G-2 San Fernando Stakes – Take a gander at #2 Viscount (6-1). Garrett Gomez is up in the saddle for Baffert, and they are no strangers. He is 2/3 ITM, and 3/5 ITM on the synthetic ovals. Looking back at a second off the layoff, and we all know this is a players angle. This is a son of Orientate. The last race for this firecracker was right along the rail last out, and was a nice peek into the future. I would take a hard look at the complete tiers as there may be hidden value waiting for the taking.

So, go get em… What are you waiting for? There is more action than just the NFL today, and you can cash in right now and get a glimpse into the Derby future.

Good luck, and enjoy the sun!