Horse Racing Tips and Picks from WinningPonies.com

Gotta Hunch, Betta Bunch


September 21st, 2008 by Horstradamus

Australian Horse of the Year, Weekend Hustler, won his seventh G-1 event in the last 13 months. He took the race by 3/4 of a length and added a purse of $294,061 to his credit. The best part about the race, was that a big punter bet a cool $1 million dollars to win on this runner.

Talk about having a great day. He was making the bookmakers a bit nervous, but they have said that he has made significant wagers like this in the past.

Weekend Hussler made his fourth start in five weeks since a layoff of nearly four months, as trainer Ross McDonald is preparing the bay Hussonet gelding for a demanding stretch. This has been quite a busy schedule, and winning by a short margin of 3/4 of a length is enough to make you get a little lump in your throat. But something tells me this punter has been there before.

He stalked the pace from three wide under Brad Rawiller in the 1,800-meter (8.95-furlong) race as Maldivian set the pace. Maldivian edged away approaching the straight as Weekend Hussler accelerated into second, and the pacesetter spurted to a comfortable advantage. Weekend Hussler responded eagerly when roused by Rawiller and made up ground with an explosive burst of speed to surge past Maldivian, en route to victory as the heavy favorite. “Going around to the gates he’s not 100% there yet but looks a million dollars,” Rawiller told racingandsports.com.au. “This was a good field but once again he’s out on top.”

Lucky wager.. A million bucks is a lot of dough. I am glad to see the whales are alive and active in racing.

Five Weeks and Counting


September 20th, 2008 by Horstradamus

It is hard to believe that Breeders’ Cup Day is right around the corner. Each week in the next few are going to very important for handicapping. I have a few things for you to watch. They may just be a little nugget of gold at Santa Anita.

For the weeks leading up to B/C there should be some required daily reading, as follows:

www.drf.com

www.equidaily.com

www.paulickreport.com

By following up on these sites, you will have filtered out many articles and blogs that may become time consuming. Keep these on your favorites bookmarks, and you will be kept up on the most important articles written by everyone that is in the know. Try and stay clear of taking in too much. These sites will get you where you want to be. I would advise watching as much of Santa Anita racing as possible before the big day.

Keep up on what is happening for last race preps. You will see them on most Saturdays. Keep your eyes peeled for what is happening in Kentucky during these next weeks. Turfway Park offers some great racing on Kentucky Cup Day. Turfway has Poly track, the same surface as Keeneland. Also, opening weekend at Keeneland is called Fall Stars Weekend. This will be your last glimpse.

After the final tune-ups, you need to watch for works. Pay close attention to European runners coming here. They will be running in a hotter climate, and make sure that they have had a few works over the track. You can throw out the pretenders who have not finished in the money in G-1 races for their last effort.

At Santa Anita, they have a surface called Pro Ride. It is synthetic, but they are all not the same. Please watch for solid morning efforts fresh off of a G-1 effort in the money.

Now, there are no real secrets or magic that can be done. It boils down to good old fashioned homework. Last, but not least, you will want to dial up WinningPonies.com leading up to Breeders’ Cup weekend. This will give you an idea of how the track is playing and how to utilize the information for maximum value.

Fans For The Future


September 20th, 2008 by Horstradamus

I was reading one of the many articles and blogs as I do each night. I came across a blog that spoke about attracting fans and keeping them interested in racing. I have worked in racing for going on 20 years. I have seen the good, the bad, and ugly moves with decisions. Here are a few ideas to chew on. Just keep in mind, it could work and would extend to every player who comes.

Every day, at every track, there should be free parking and valet. Make it easy to come on in and drop off a bet. When you pull into the lot, it is the first sign of welcome and thanks for coming. The idea of charging folks has gone the way of the dinosaur.

Create a drive up window area. If the track is worried about patrons making wagers on-line, then make it easy for those who live close and are in a hurry. At last check, the restaurant business is doing pretty well with the ease of motion service. This will keep patrons coming to your location and allows you an opportunity to market to them with ads, signage, and selling of handicapping materials. Make it easy for a player. In the old days a punter would drive 100 miles uphill in the snow. Not anymore. Let them have a fast food approach to getting their action.

I know that there are a thousand excuses for this one. Union contracts, burned out workers, and people who just don’t care. It MUST be of the greatest importance that ALL employees greet each and every patron like their job depends on it. Because in reality, it does.. One of the biggest complaints that I hear is poor customer service. It doesn’t take a million dollar plan to have all of your employees smile and treat customers with dignity. I have heard of ticket sellers acting as if it is a bother to serve; concession and staff treating your order as if you owe them a favor. Not the case. I have worked in racing and this goes on daily. If you are tired of watching your patrons leave, then spend the time and money retaining your current players. It is so much cheaper to keep your present players happy than to create new ones. Just remember the golden rule. Have secret shoppers monitor your success, and make sure you publicly reward those who go over and above the call of duty. For those who do not, show them the door.

Keep a clean, well lit plant. Have free seating in all areas, and offer competitive food prices. This will make players feel comfortable, and more likely to use your facility as a full-service destination.

Have hourly drawings. You don’t have to give away the house. Make it dinner for two, two free programs, a free handicapping seminar, or be a guest of the race caller and stand in the booth and see the best view of the races. Overall, players need a constant form of entertainment. Post pictures of big winners in a “Wall of Fame” area. Treat the players as stars. They really are, because they pay your salary. Think about it.  How do you want to be treated?

Synthetic Prep Anyone?


September 19th, 2008 by Horstradamus

Indian Blessing is maturing into a BEAST. She is coming along at the right time, and looks to be the real deal. But she has been changing her mind as of late. Or, at least Bob Baffert is doing it for her.

She was scheduled to run at Belmont and scratched out of the race. Good thing. The hurricane moved in and really made the track a mess. Then she was heading to Presque Isle. It looked like her prep was going to be synthetic, and from what I have seen, this seems to be a good decision (as runners usually need a race over the surface). But no, she changed her mind again. She is now scheduled to run in the Gallant Bloom at Belmont.

She is scheduled to face 4 other fillies in a 6 1/2 furlong race….. I know Baffert has said he wants to have her relax. Or is it he who needs to relax? This guy is Ginsu sharp. He knows that synthetic surfaces can be tricky. He moved most of his runners East to stay clear. What will she get out of this race? A big purse? Is that her goal? I am sure it will be nice, but if she is to prepare for the Breeders’ Cup, she needs to head on out at a leisurely pace. Here are a couple of suggestions that may have worked.

John Velasquez is going to ride Commentator at Suffolk, and she has Cory Nakatani in the saddle. No sweat there, but what will she get from this race?  I never question a top notch trainer, but in this case I will. Indian Blessing needs to be headed toward California. She could run at Turfway Park on Kentucky Cup Day, hit Keeneland to prep over the Poly track on Fall-Stars weekend, or just get out there and try to work into the Pro-Ride surface and be ready for the race of her life.

Did anyone tell Baffert? Proud Spell is probably headed out to California. Ask Bobby Frankel who may withdraw Sugar Swirl and head to Keeneland… Might be a good idea….

How Does He Do It?


September 19th, 2008 by Horstradamus

When it comes to claiming horses in California and turning them around, Mike Mitchell’s name is at the top of the list.

He has held a license since 1974, and has done magic with bringing new runners to his barn. In addition to doing magic with his stock, he has also had numerous medication and medication procedural infractions. The latest being a Class 3 drug Procaine in one of his runners Scat Thief at Del Mar. Procaine is commonly found in the antibiotic Pencillin G.

He is usually among the top 50 in the nation among earnings, and has won $3.8 million in 2008 so far. Not a bad days work, and his numbers reflect at a 24% winning clip.

This summer he received 10 notifications for positive anabolic steroid tests. Overall, he has been known to use chemical methods to enhance his runners abilities. A complete Comprehensive Ruling Report dating back to 1975 has a total of 46 rulings listed. His rap sheet is starting to look like War and Peace.

This has been the year of introspection. When racing has turned the light of truth upon itself and examined what it can do to clean up its act. When Barbaro broke down, the flag went up. This year’s Kentucky Derby set off the alarm with the death of Eight Belles. Something has to be done.

If you have been following, more and more states are adopting the ban of any anabolic steroid use. You will most probably see commissions and states adopting a “no medication allowed” policy with race horses. In Europe, they live with this ruling, and in all professional sports we are taking steps to ensure a cleaner game. Why should racing be exempt?

This will be a long process, so stay tuned. When you see trainers making the news that have a rap sheet as long as your leg, there will more fuel for the fire to rid the game of illegal activities. How does he do it? Simple. Modern chemistry and seeking an edge in a very competitive game. Mike Mitchell is not alone in the game. There are countless others who will surface as the investigations continue.

Guilty?


September 18th, 2008 by Horstradamus

Larry Jones is one of the good guys in racing. He even wears a white Stetson. This was the mark of the good guys in the movies.

Stewards at Delaware Park have suspended trainer Larry Jones for seven days, fined him $500 and ordered a purse redistribution.  This was following a hearing on Tuesday concerning the discovery of a higher than permitted level of Clenbuterol in a post-race test for Two Bucks Stable’s Stones River, who won a June 8 allowance race at Delaware Park.

Jones trains for Jim Squires and Two Bucks Stables. They have been very outspoken about drug usage and the use of anabolic steroids. Following the death of Eight Belles, Larry Jones has soul searched. He has many super runners in his care, and it is hard to believe that he would allow a horse in his name to compete with the added help of modern chemistry.

Far be it from me to argue that he is 100% innocent. But I do believe there could be an incident of tampering.  The ruling against Jones was the first of any kind during the trainer’s 25-year career, according to the database at the Association of Racing Commissioners International. The jury has spoken. The fines and punishment have been levied. But has the sport done the right thing?

We live in a society where we bring to light public sport figures. We make them answer before commissions, and the media runs them through dirty laundry. Larry Jones is one of the good guys. I sure hope the media remembers that, and the fans have not lost any faith in this trainer.

One More Time - And That Is Final


September 17th, 2008 by Horstradamus

If you have been watching races over 15 years or so, you have surely taken a glance at Patrick Valenzuela. There is more talent in his toe than in most hearts of riders. He has the gift. But during his career, many demons have plagued this star. He is back. Back in Louisiana riding for more than just purse money.

In January of this year, he thought his career was long over. Not due to injury, but to his own doing. The State of California revoked his conditional license over a drunk driving arrest. Things do happen, but they seem to follow him all of the time.

P-Val, as he is known to many in the game, is three wins shy of 4,000 victories. He is currently 10th in the standings at Louisiana Downs. It takes time to build trust. Trust with owners, trainers, track management, and most importantly, the fans.

On Thursday, the California Horse Racing Board is considering reinstatement; to give a man who has fallen to drugs, drink, and many personal failures another lease on life. He has been here before. Many times over. But this time he looks like a man who knows the sands of the hourglass are running out. He is ready. Ready if given an opportunity.

P-Val is aboard Mambo Meister in the G-2 $500,000 Super Derby. A race he has not ridden in since 1996. He is hoping this national race will be the drawing card that gives a 45 year-old-rider another chance. His final in a storied career. He has mounts aboard some of the greats in our sport. To name a few, he has victories in the: Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and has seven Breeders’ Cup victories to his name.

This final chapter in his career can be filled with a run at glory. In the past, he has let many down; most of all, himself.  But I think this final round could be different. He has been with the best, and rode with the best. P-Val has taken things slow and steady, as a man who was preparing for a journey. I believe he is going on a journey. To a place that he knows all so well. The winner’s circle.

Horses to Watch


September 17th, 2008 by Horstradamus

So many times we see a race that we really liked. Or, it could be the 6th race at Whatever Park where your pony gets shut off but finishes up nicely. I tried in vain to keep up on my horses to play list, but things get in the way. Work, life, and everything in between.

So I started keeping a list in pocket. I have a small memo book to look cool, but I don’t think it is working. But the big piece of the puzzle, it keeps me focused on going home and going to one of the many FREE sites that catalog your runners. Yes, you heard it right. FREE! All that you have to do is commit yourself to spend a few minutes and type in a couple of comment lines.

After this painless process, you will receive all workouts, entries of this runner, and date of their next race 48 hrs prior. You have just kicked up your game to the semi-pro ranks no matter what your level. For years, trip handicapping was the way to follow your horses. No more smatterings of paper, cocktail napkins, or scraps that get thrown away. To have a comment line that describes the race is helpful when your notice comes via email.

Funny thing. I get an email, and all of a sudden that race comes flooding back to me… I forgot three weeks ago about Chewy Slew, but here he is again and that horrible rider has been replaced. Now, I have a plan. I suggest you keep up on your lists, and purge them after every race. This allows you to keep up to date data on recent trip horses to take note.

Nothing replaces good old fashioned handicapping. But to have your “special’ ponies sent to you in email form takes out all of the work. The day has come. Big Brother finally is doing us a favor.

Who Will Wear The Crown?


September 16th, 2008 by Horstradamus

After beating Coal Play to win the Haskell, Big Brown started looking like the old guy again. It made that dismal Belmont drift from memory.

He took down the $500,000 Monmouth Stakes as he dictated the pace. He displayed the early speed he once did in his career. He faced older horses for the first time, and did it on the weeds. Not a bad day at work…..

At the top of the lane two pouncing giants Proudinsky and Shakis both had their chance to “hook and cook him.” The fractions were right, and the stage was set. But there would be NO getting by B.B on this day. They could have went around another time and he would have still held them at bay. They call that heart. Look it up in the dictionary, and you’ll see Big Brown.

The next 40 days should be a heck of a lot of fun. Dutrow talking smack, IEAH stables brimming with confidence, and the talk of his final hurrah. Sounds like good stuff to me. I surely won’t miss this chance.

All along, Curlin looked to be sized up for the crown. He still may, but he is going to have to overcome the B.B. Express. Curlin doesn’t like synthetic tracks, and at Santa Anita, they now have Pro-Ride. From the mouth of every trainer worth his salt, I have heard that synthetic is like running on the turf. If you missed the Monmouth Stakes, it was run on the turf. This is setting up to be one beautiful day. Two champions locking horns for the last time in their careers. This should be more than anyone anticipated. If this race pans out, it will be talked about for ages. The game can sure use a runner to capture our hearts again. Mark your calendar…..

Handicapping 101


September 16th, 2008 by Horstradamus

Everyone needs a little brush-up from time to time. It is only those who are mad at their money, who make no attempt to sharpen their skills. Here are a couple reminders to add to your checklist:

1. Take a look at horses dropping in class. This can be an effective way to gauge value. The better runners, and those fresh off a claim climbing the ladder, should be on your radar screen. Also, take a second look at cheaper claimers making a drop in class. Usually the lesser runners are looking for a softer spot to score. Dropping can be a positive, but can also be a negative note depending on the class level. You can find this on your WinningPonies.com selection form. Have your eyes peeled for this move.

2. Pay attention to the jockey and trainer stats. They say the numbers don’t lie, and over 1/3 of the races are won by the top ten trainers at a meet. This info is worth its weight in gold, and to have a hot hand in the irons for a solid barn, can be a direct line to the windows to cash in big.

3. Workouts: The quick ones; long ones; recent works; all merit a long look. All athletes play as they have been practicing. That last gallop could add a little more gas in the tank, and a runner may be prepping for that big race, and need a long work to get that extra wind in a sprint.

All of these factors can be found on WinningPonies.com, and are flakes of gold. So polish up your game from time to time. Utilize your data to the fullest and always look for the fresh approach. It is the mark of the improving player.

Horse Racing Handicapping
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