Horse Racing Tips and Picks from WinningPonies.com

The Big Three In Racing


October 29th, 2008 by Horstradamus

Richard Dutrow Jr., the controversial trainer of Kentucky Derby and Preakness champion Big Brown, spent much of the summer firing verbal jabs at Curlin. He is not about to stop, not after his rival finished a disappointing fourth in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday, to raise questions about his legacy and whether he can repeat as Horse of the Year.

As Dutrow sees it, strong arguments can be made for Big Brown, Curlin and unbeaten filly Zenyatta when the time comes to vote for Horse of the Year. “I think we have as good a chance as those two,” he said.

Jess Jackson, Curlin’s owner, contends that his 4-year-old had nothing left to prove, even in his bid to repeat in the Classic. “He’s already a champion,” he said. “I don’t think this loss diminishes his chance to be Horse of the Year at all.

“Big Brown ought to be the top 3-year-old, but we went to every race, and that’s the spirit of the sport.”

Injury-plagued Big Brown, eased in the Belmont Stakes in a failed bid for the Triple Crown that devastated racing fans, was retired after he was hurt in a workout a few weeks ago before his eagerly anticipated showdown with Curlin at the 25th Breeders’ Cup.

When trainer John Shirreffs was asked if there is a case to be made for his filly Zenyatta, his response could not have been more emphatic: “Absolutely. With her being undefeated in three Grade I’s before the Ladies’ Classic, she’s really proven herself.”

Zenyatta improved to 7-for-7 this season with a dazzling last-to-first move Friday in the Ladies’ Classic. She is unbeaten in nine career starts, with all but one of those successes occurring on a synthetic surface.

The tall and imposing Zenyatta can count ex-jockey Gary Stevens among her fans. “She could win on broken glass, it doesn’t matter,” he said.

Curlin’s ability to respond to his first test on Pro-Ride was a question leading up to the Classic. Jackson debated long and hard whether to run. He insisted afterward that he was not making excuses for a loss but said, “This track was for turf runners or runners who had been on it before.”

Curlin’s only blemish in six previous starts this season was a runner-up finish to Red Rocks in his only turf try at Belmont Park in July.

He traveled halfway around the world and routed his competition by 7¾ lengths in the $6 million Dubai World Cup at the end of March, then held his form when he rolled by 4¼ lengths in the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs in mid-June. He earned consecutive wins in the Woodward and the Jockey Club Gold Cup to become the first North American horse to roll into the $10 million dollar club.

The Bottom Line


October 29th, 2008 by Horstradamus

There are many ways to look at this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships from a business and sporting standpoint, and not all examinations are going to lead to the same conclusion.

The most important question is whether or not the 2008 Breeders’ Cup was a success or failure. Was the decision to hold the Cup at a racetrack with a synthetic surface a wise move? Has the expansion of the world championships from eight races in one day to 14 races in two days helped or diluted the event?

How is success or failure of the Breeders’ Cup measured? Is it attendance, pari-mutuel handle, revenue, TV ratings, racing results, international participation?

It’s difficult to measure some of these factors because the circumstances of the Breeders’ Cup have changed so much between 2008 and previous years, rendering it an apples to oranges comparison. Making those comparisons even more challenging are the current economic conditions that have hit all levels of society this year, from Wall Street bankers to blue-collar workers. Virtually every industry is feeling a severe impact.

Handle dropped virtually across the board on Saturday’s races this year, with the day’s total handle declining by 7%, from $115.7 million in 2007 to $107.6 million in 2008. It was the lowest handle on a Saturday Breeders’ Cup since 1999, when $100.3 million was bet on the races from Gulfstream Park.

Santa Anita’s on-track handle of $11.8 million was down almost 10% from the $12.7 million wagered on-track at Monmouth Park in 2007 and a steep decline of 33% from the 2006 Saturday Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs, when $18.3 million was bet on-track during the one-day event.

Saturday’s on-track business was the lowest for a Breeders’ Cup since 1997, when $11.2 million was wagered at Hollywood Park. The last time the Breeders’ Cup was held at Santa Anita, in 2003, one-day on-track handle totaled $16.3 million. This year’s two-day on-track handle was $18.7 million.

The economic climate has not been good for racing in 2008. Most major race meetings have experienced double-digit declines in business. For the Breeders’ Cup to increase handle from 2007 is an accomplishment, though not a major one, when considering both the additional races and superior weather conditions.

It is difficult to say that there has not been a dilution of the event based on the early evidence. Do the positive benefits outweigh any negatives? I think it’s too early to tell.

Attendance was up this year from 2007, but that should have been a no-brainer following the poor weather at Monmouth Park. Breeders’ Cup officials got greedy with ticket prices and, to their credit, have admitted as much. The increase in prices was outrageous, especially for the Friday program, and it is hoped they will be scaled back considerably next year. TV ratings have not yet been reported, but it’s hard to imagine they will be up from 2007.

The racing was spectacular on both days – and safe. More than a few people commented at the conclusion of the Breeders’ Cup that no one died or suffered any serious injuries, a sad commentary on the bumpy road the sport has been traveling in recent years. The Pro-Ride synthetic track was fast and safe, though it appeared to compromise some horses who had only raced on conventional dirt tracks and help those horses with synthetic track or turf experience.

Synthetic surfaces have increased the difficulty of handicapping, and running the traditional Breeders’ Cup dirt races on the Pro-Ride track may have led some big players to downsize their bets. The Classic, according to Crist’s figures, handled $24.3 million in bets this year, down from $30.1 million at Monmouth Park last year and $37.7 million at Churchill Downs in 2006.

The dominance of European horses was widely embraced by Breeders’ Cup officials, including president Greg Avioli, who sees international participation as the last, best hope for further growth in pari-mutuel handle. The success of Raven’s Pass and four other European-based winners on Saturday’s program will ensure enthusiastic participation from European horsemen when the races return to Santa Anita in 2009, but there is no guarantee that’s going to mean greater interest among horseplayers outside of North America. There is a conceivable backlash among American breeders who provide the financial foundation of the Breeders’ Cup program through foal and stallion nominations. Some of them view this as an American event, and they would be happier if the considerable purse money stayed in this country. On the other hand, those breeders who want to reach an international audience with their sale yearlings may cheer the success of European-based runners.

The Breeders’ Cup will conduct a post-mortem on the event to determine what worked and what didn’t. Many have said the Oak Tree Racing Association and Santa Anita did a terrific job from a logistical standpoint, and there may not be a more telegenic racing facility in America in late October than the “Great Race Place.” There were many people critical of the decision to hold the event at Santa Anita in consecutive years, but those critics surely are fewer in number following this year’s Breeders’ Cup.

The Game Has Changed


October 23rd, 2008 by Horstradamus

The biggest shake-up in the 25-year history of the Breeders’ Cup is about to hit the American racing establishment when the bugler gets it rolling at Santa Anita on Friday.

This will be a Cup no one has seen before - 14 races spread over two days, with purses stretching to $25.5 million; making it the richest turf festival in the world.  And that’s just the beginning.

All the non-turf races will be run for the first time over a synthetic track concoction called Pro-Ride instead of America’s traditional dirt surface; a switch that could have Cup founder John Gaines spinning in his grave.

The first five races will go on Friday, reserved exclusively for fillies and mares. Call it Ladies’ Day. The other nine races, climaxing with the $5 million Classic, will be run Saturday.

No one envisioned such radical departures from the original concept of the Cup - a one-day, seven-race $10 million spectacular to crown a group of champions.

And that signals yet another major upheaval in Breeders’ Cup history. The old guard who created the Cup, nursed it through its growing pains and rotated it at tracks all round the country, are out.

Young gunslingers have taken over, headed by Greg Avioli, the 44-year-old president and CEO, and Peter Land, the 47-year-old chief marketing officer. Between them, they have turned the old Cup on its head.

Where the original old boy founders were horse-driven, the new hotshots are market driven. Their goal: to lift the Breeders’ Cup out of its narrow industry groove (with negligible TV ratings) and boom it into a national sports colossus like the World Series, the Super Bowl, the Kentucky Derby, the Masters golf and the tennis championships.

The task is formidable, but the market is everything. That’s why they have made the unprecedented decision to run back-to-back Cups at Santa Anita. Tap into the big Los Angeles sports and celebrity market.

Santa Anita is also a breathtaking setting with the San Gabriels as a backdrop while the weather is reliably sunny, 80-degree Southern California bliss - a far cry from the eight inches of rain that drowned last year’s Cup at Monmouth Park in New Jersey.

The new-look Cup is not universally welcomed. Fourteen races seem unwieldy.

“They’re watering it down a bit,” trainer Bobby Frankel said. “But they’re giving a lot more people chances to make money.”

Running all the female races on the first day looks sexist, Friday is not a major sports day, and the synthetic surface negates all the dirt history of the past 24 years.

Yet the new team might be on to something. This Cup has drawn a record 35 horses from abroad, 10 of them from Aidan O’Brien, the Irish training whiz. The best we could muster are seven each from Frankel and John Sadler.

They have introduced a 1 1/2-mile dirt marathon race, which might encourage breeders to produce horses sound in limb and wind instead of an assembly line of speedy cripples. Long overdue, they have introduced the also-eligible concept.

Most of us resist change but the hard reality is that the Breeders’ Cup, although a fabulous event for insiders, has failed to crash through the barriers and engage the general public.

Avioli and Land are attempting to change all that.

They will not do it all this week, but with a bit of luck, they could be on the way.

Breeders’ Cup Preview / BC Ladies Classic (G-1)


October 23rd, 2008 by Horstradamus

For the first day of two, they have put together a stellar card of runners. This race sticks out as one that will define the day.  This race is not for cream puffs, but there is a hurdle they all must beat to find the winners circle.

They will travel 1 1/8th, and it should promise excitement.

The odds-on favorite should not disappoint the crowd. Zenyatta is unblemished, and should keep her record intact. Mike Smith has ridden this daughter of Street Cry for five straight wins.  She makes her second start after wooing the crowd in the Ladies Secret.  She is 7/7 with wins over the synthetic, and John Sheriffs is a winner at 32% off a last race win.  2/2 at S.A with wins, and she looks all of that and more. What more can they say?  They just have to run the race….

The song should play out that way, but Music Note will have her say in the matter. 6/7 in the money, and was a nice winner in the Gazelle.  J.J. Castellano is a perfect fit with her, and should come rolling late down the lane.  if the pace game sets up, and she takes to the surface, it could be a different song indeed.

Take a good look at Cocoa Beach.  She is 2/2 in the U.S. since arriving.  I saw her last race closely, and she mowed them down like grass.  She had more in the tank, and this may just be the race to use the gas. Dominguez is a very solid boot, and the trainer wins 23% with graded stakes.

Breeders’ Cup Preview / BC - Filly Mare Turf (G-1)


October 22nd, 2008 by Horstradamus

This is another $2 million event. As said before, you can bet they all will be trying. This is why you need WinningPonies.com to help make that final decision as to how much you will win.

I love a runner in here. Her name is: Goldikova. She beat the boys last out, and sports a very sweet Time Form rating from Europe. Winning the Prix de Moulin (G-1) should have her firing nicely. Her dam Born Gold was a nice runner, and she has 9 starters-9 turf winners and 3 stakes winners to her credit. Freddie Head, known in European circles, should not disappoint. This race against the gals should be a little easier to deal with, and if all goes well she should be worth a look before betting.

Halfway to Heaven is a runner that is looking good. Trainer Aiden O’Brien has a (Group-1) winner who has pulled off the feat three times this season. He has set Europe afire this year, and she has faced Goldikova in her career. Her dam has 4 starters and 4 turf winners.  She can handle the distance, and could be dangerous.

Mauralakana is a gal on the go. she was bred in France, and came up short in the Flower Bowl over a yielding surface. Second start off a layoff is a winners move, and expect her best as Clemente wins 22% over the weeds, and then the same with graded stakes runners.

Breeders’ Cup Preview / BC Juvenile Fillies (G-1)


October 22nd, 2008 by Horstradamus

The first G-1 takes the stage and the price of poker just went up. When you have graded company at $2 million bones at stake, you can bet they all will trying. They didn’t get this far being a nobody.

In this heat, I like Stardom Bound. She has been tough out West, and her sire Tapit should fit the weeds. She likes the Santa Anita surface, and will set up perfectly for a last to first style. This will be exciting down the lane, and this Canadian should give us our monies worth.  If you get 2-1, it will be value.

Another worth a good look is: C.S. Silk. Her sire Medaglia D’ Oro wins 19% with first time turfers. She should be stalking, and after the victory in the Arlington Washington, she should be ready to fire. Dale Romans is a quiet winner. You won’t know he is there until he gets in the winners circle.

Rounding out my preview is: Persistently. Alan Garcia is named, and this guy can flat out ride. Her dam fires 100% winners as babies and should make a belated run to make the crowd jump. Her sire wins 13% of the time with turf first timers, and she had to alter course twice in her last race.

Breeders’ Cup Preview / Juvenile Filly Turf


October 22nd, 2008 by Horstradamus

This turf event is going one mile for the gals. They are running for a cool one million dollars, so you can bet they will bring their “A” game. Plan on a firm turf course, as the weather is suppose to be in the upper 80’s.

I take a hard look at the very speedy Laragh. She is by Tapit who wins 22% with his turf runners. Throw out that race two back as it was over a soft course. Add in Prado riding for John Terranova, and they wire this field if the cards fall her way. Prado is a 16% winner on the weeds, and can dictate the pace with the best of them. She looks dangerous on the hook.

Part of the package should include: Consequence. The daughter of El Prado is getting second time lasix, and Shug wins 25% on the medication move. Her dam was a stakes winner, and looks to rebound better on firm going. Throw out her last race as it may not have suited her. I like her to be a major player, and McGaughey gets them fit and ready.

Round out your looks with: Maram. She exits off a win in the Miss Grillo at Belmont. Chad Brown has a staggering stat of 88% a winner off a last race win. Look for her to come rolling late in the lane. With a little luck, she may just do the trick.

Breeders’ Cup Preview / Filly & Mare Sprint


October 22nd, 2008 by Horstradamus

The Breeders’ Cup begins this Friday, and the main draw was on Tuesday.  This handicapping will give you food for thought, and be sure to dial-up WinningPonies.com to get your latest information and make your weekend the best of the year.

Filly & Mare Sprint / 7f - Race 3

This is a very talented and deep field with multiple G-1 winners. The favorite will be Indian Blessing. She is simply awesome, and this three-year-old gal is trained by Bob Baffert.  She is undefeated at distances under a mile. The daughter of Indian Charlie exits a victory from the Gallant Bloom (G-2). It was short field, but one packed with punch. If you get 2-1, bet early and be sure to use in exotics.

She is 1/1 over the all-weather surface on the Cushion Track at Santa Anita. She has shown brilliance in racing and her maturity is working to her favor.

Indyanne is a daughter of Indian Charlie. She is 6 starts with 5 wins, and a second place finish. She is also 2/2 over the synthetic surface. She is blazing on the lead, and I only find fault if the pace is too salty. The extra furlong may be a bit tough if this is the case.  If left alone, she may be tough to deal with.

If all goes well with the draw, you will need to use Zaftig. This gal by Gone West is a very nice looking stalker. The faster they run, the better she’ll like the pace.  She is 2/2 at 7f, and tries the synthetic for the first time.  Take a look at her when they take the track.  If she is washy and doesn’t have her “A” game, be sure to pass on her.

This is a good look at the opening race.  Be sure to keep WinningPonies in your hand to keep you on course. This will be a weekend where you don’t want to be empty handed.

Breeders’ Cup Worktab


October 22nd, 2008 by Horstradamus

Horstradamus is going to be heading out to the Breeders’ Cup in person this week. I believe this will be a weekend to remember. The two-day event will be the testing ground of greatness. I am going to pre-handicap each race before the draw to give you food for thought.  After the draw, I would make sure you dial up WinningPonies.com, to ensure that you have in your hands a sure fire plan that will maximize your winning. Until then, here are some of the final works of some runners.

Grade 1 winner FABULOUS STRIKE (Smart Strike), most recently second in his attempt to repeat in the Vosburgh S. (G1), drilled five furlongs in :59 1/5 over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride main track on Sunday in preparation for the Sprint (G1).

Kentucky Cup Sprint (G3) winner FATAL BULLET (Red Bullet) was timed in 1:01 2/5 in advance of the Sprint.

Multiple Grade 1 winner PRECIOUS KITTEN (Catienus), second in the First Lady S. (G1) most recently, was clocked in 1:01 for the Filly & Mare Turf (G1).

Norfolk S. (G1) victor STREET HERO (Street Cry [Ire]), prepping for the Juvenile (G1), finished in 1:02 3/5.

Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner MIDSHIPMAN (Unbridled’s Song), runner-up in the Norfolk S. (G1) last time, completed six furlongs in 1:12 1/5 for the Juvenile.

Multiple Grade 2 winner OUT OF CONTROL (Brz) (Vettori), runner-up by a head in the Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship (G1) last month, covered five furlongs in 1:01 in preparation for the Turf (G1).

Grade 2 winner GET FUNKY (Straight Man), runner-up in the Morvich H. (G3) last time, sped six furlongs in 1:12 1/5 in preparation for the Turf Sprint.

Juvenile candidate MUNNINGS (Speightstown), runner-up in the Champagne S. (G1) last time, completed five panels in :59 3/5.

Frizette S. (G1) and Matron S. (G2) runner-up PERSISTENTLY (Smoke Glacken) worked toward the Juvenile Fillies (G1) with a four-furlong move in :50 3/5.

SKIPADATE (Skip Away), second in the Summer S. (Can-G3) and With Anticipation S., worked five-eighths in 1:01 1/5 in advance of the Juvenile Turf.

Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) winner FAIRBANKS (Giant’s Causeway) was timed in 1:00 in preparation for the Classic (G1) or Marathon.

Sapling S. (G3) winner SILENT VALOR (Lion Heart), fifth in the Norfolk in his latest, sped the same distance in :59 3/5 in advance of the Juvenile.

Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) winner MAST TRACK (Mizzen Mast), eighth in the Goodwood S. (G1) last time, worked toward the Classic in 1:00.

Forego S. (G1) winner FIRST DEFENCE (Unbridled’s Song), aiming for the Sprint despite an unplaced effort in the Vosburgh, smoked five-eighths in :57 4/5, swiftest of 69 works at the distance.

GALLANT SON (Malabar Gold), a three-time stakes winner at Emerald Downs this year, including the Gottstein Futurity last time, sped six furlongs in a bullet 1:12.  He is an also-eligible for the Juvenile and Juvenile Turf.

Pine Tree Lane S. winner TIZZY’S TUNE (Tiznow), a longshot for the Filly & Mare Sprint, went five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.

Flower Bowl Invitational S. (G1) queen DYNAFORCE (Dynaformer), a close runner-up in the Diana S. (G1) in late July, breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5 over Belmont Park’s fast main dirt. The Bill Mott-trained five-year-old, who has finished off-the-board only twice from her 11 career starts, is preparing for the Filly & Mare Turf.

RED ROCKS (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]), hero of the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Turf and this season’s Man o’ War S. (G1), covered seven furlongs on Belmont’s firm turf in 1:27 2/5 in advance of another shot at the Turf.

Multiple Grade 1 winner INTANGAROO (Orientate), last-out victress of the Ballerina S. (G1), drilled four furlongs in :46 4/5 over Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track in advance of Friday’s Filly & Mare Sprint.

Over Santa Anita’s firm turf, Grade 1 winner DANCING FOREVER (Rahy) went five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 in advance of the Turf. The Phipps Stable home-bred was a distant seventh in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (G1) last time.

Multiple Grade 3 winner DESERT CODE (E Dubai), who should draw into the Turf Sprint field from the also-eligible list, completed seven furlongs in 1:12 3/5, the fastest of seven works at the distance.  He was most recently seventh in the Morvich.

BOURBON BAY (Sligo Bay [Ire]), runner-up in the Cradle S. most recently, was timed in 1:16 in preparation for the Juvenile Turf, for which he is an also-eligible.

Undefeated BITTEL ROAD (Stormy Atlantic), victor of the Bourbon S. (G3) and With Anticipation S. in his last two, breezed four furlongs in :49 over Keeneland’s Polytrack. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the dark bay is preparing for the Juvenile Turf.

Multiple stakes victor WAR MONGER (War Chant), runner-up in the Bernard Baruch H. (G2) and third in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) in his past two, traveled five furlongs in 1:01 4/5. The Mott-trained four-year-old is gearing up for the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1).

Breeders’ Futurity (G1) third-placer PIONEER OF THE NILE (Empire Maker), posted a time of 1:00 2/5 for breezing five furlongs in company for Mott in advance of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

“They did what we wanted, and hopefully what we needed,” the conditioner said. “They were useful works; both horses have recent races. It was a good solid effort and hopefully it was just enough and not too much.”

Last-out maiden winner ORTHODOX (Pulpit) logged five-eighths in :59 3/5. The John Glenney charge is currently sixth in line on the also-eligible list to draw into the Juvenile Turf.

Grade 2 winner DELIGHTFUL KISS (Kissin Kris), winner of the Turfway Park Fall Championship (G3) and All American S. (G3) in his last two, prepped for the Marathon with a bullet six furlongs in 1:12 over the Tapeta surface at Golden Gate Fields.

He’s Still Got It


October 22nd, 2008 by Horstradamus

The “Living Legends” race proved to be all that it was hyped to be. It wasn’t like watching an old folks home on Red Bull; it was one of the most interesting races I have seen all year.

Sandy Hawley, the “Snowbird” from Canada, jumped in the old familiar place on the hook. This was nothing new to the 59-year-old Canadian. He has amassed titles like: Canada’s leading rider nine times, and leading rider in North America four times.

This wire to wire victory gave Hawley his 6,450th win which put him 10th on the all-time North American riders list.  Not bad for a guy who has not been in the saddle professionally for 10 years.

If you go back in blog land, it was old Horstradamus who gave his “Legend” call of the race with Sandy Hawley jumping on the lead, and Jerry Bailey and Gary Stevens chasing down the lane. Not bad guesswork. All you had to do was box the three selections and you had the triactor, as they say in Canada.

Enough of me patting myself on the back…. It was great to see this gathering of riders. When they warmed up, it gave me chills on top of chills. To see these heroes from yesterday sitting tall in the saddle again was a reminder of how short life really is… So this was a moment to savor.

All in all, I was not disappointed. The best thing was that all covered the 7f distance safely, and gave us one more glimpse at greatness. If this ever happens again, it would be great; but one never knows what each year holds.

“If I was invited back again, I would do it again in a minute,” said Hawley, whose biggest personal challenge came in 1987 when he beat skin cancer. “I was 122 pounds two months ago, and when I got invited, I started working out and got on a few horses, and the weight came right off. I weighed 110 in the room today.”

“Being back with these guys was a thrill. I’ve been with them the last few days, and you really don’t get to see them more than maybe once or twice a year at the Derby or the Breeders’ Cup. To be able to ride with them … when I got the call, I was like, ‘Holy cow, yeah, it would be an honor.’ The field of riders they ended up getting was tremendous, and I never thought in a million years that I had an opportunity to win, but I got on a good horse.”  I kept waiting for track announcer Trevor Denman to say that Hawley had the Living Legends race “in the bag” as they came down the stretch.  Back in 1983, when Denman was just getting started as a race caller in the United States, that’s exactly what he said about Hawley and a horse named Shanekite when they opened a big lead in the Morvich Handicap, run on the hillside turf course. “Sandy Hawley and Shanekite have this one in the bag,” Denman announced as they hit the sixteenth pole.

Unfortunately, Hawley heard Denman’s call and eased up a bit on Shanekite as they approached the wire, only to get beat on the money by a John Longden-trained runner named Kangaroo Court, who was charging hard to the wire under a young apprentice rider, Joe Steiner. It was a rare mistake in an outstanding career for Hawley, and a race call Denman would like to be able to do over. “I heard the announcer say I had it in the bag,” a fuming Hawley said afterwards, explaining the loss to reporters.

There was no letting up on Saturday. On this occasion, Hawley was the best of the Living Legends.

Horse Racing Handicapping
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