The List

by Ed Meyer

posted on March 2, 2010 in General Discussion | No Comments >>

Nature’s green is gold….. But, the sheets that were prepared by the gent who walked among the common player to the upper-deck couple, was pure gold, and it is gone. That is, until now.

I never use a name to protect the innocent, and keep others from getting pissed.  This has probably saved me from at least five or six black eyes.

Long ago, a man wh0 loved racing so much would create a Derby compilation that would rival anything overcharged by the so-called professionals. They would cover every horse that was heading for the Derby, and it would cover everything from the elusive Chinese math Dosage Index figures to the cross breeding. It covered a personal history of each, and what their parents did on the oval. After reading this, you would have more than plenty info on so many trying to squeeze into the Derby gate.

He would give an intro of how he started in the game, and what he did over the years. He was a professional as far as how he made a living, but he made his life being a loving father and an avid fan of the game. It showed through in every word of his yearly publication. It began with a modest ten to twenty readers. Once you were on the list, you had to send in writing that you didn’t want to take the ride down Derby lane.  It would have been hard for anyone to have ever picked up pen and wrote on paper.

His record wasn’t bad, and the funny thing is that all walks of life would have a copy. The guy who cuts your grass, to the man at the bank. They would come in all shapes and sizes. That was the best thing. It was just about the time when you would be telling a friend about a great tool you received in the mail, and they would interrupt you and tell you they were on the list. It was kinda like that movie “Fight Club.” It was a secret, but everyone knew….

Time passed, and the kind gent went on to pass out his publication to the fans that lived in heaven. The sheets went silent, and the music was gone. It was a number of years, and his son, who is a crack-smart banker, stepped up and carried on his father’s legacy. He added names, and kept the same secret sauce.  The love could be felt through every word that he typed into his father’s sheets. The data, the info, and the love shown through in every page. It was good times again.

I would consider myself to be lucky to receive the sheets. If I were to tell you how much I looked forward to those green paper sheets, and the joy that I took from thinking about my own dad, I guess I could tell you all about them, and it would be then that you would just smile and look at me and tell me you are on the list……

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The New And Unusual

by Ed Meyer

posted on March 1, 2010 in General Discussion | No Comments >>

When people become complacent with some of the wagers that are put before us, we have started down a bad road. The new wagers can entice the new, and allow the big players to find an edge. As always, I like to scratch my head and come out with a few plays. But, this is all not my doing. I listen to many folks who attend daily. When we stop listening, we stop learning about our most important asset: the players…..

Here is one that has a sports feel – However many races you have, you have an OVER / UNDER wager. This is where you add up the number of the winner of each race and accumulate them for the end of the card. Have your handicapper take his best shot, and if you don’t think this has a sports feel, you have lived under a rock. It is easy; no capping each race, and fun to be had. The newbies can just pick a side, and the sharpies can load on their side. You can make it all parimutuel, and for example, have OVER- 35  / UNDER -35  / and a tie. The wagers could have odds tied to them, based on how the public wagers.

Show me the Money – Just as popular as the “place pick all.” But, this allows you to wager on a runner or runners per race to finish in the money. If they do not, there is NO consolation…. It carries over to the next day.  All bets must be placed before the first race. I bet you will see this grow better than you thought….

Q-3 – here is a wager where you must select three consecutive quinellas. After each race, you must return to the window to exchange your ticket to get your next wager. This keep players around, and the excitement could grow. If nobody hits this wager, then it carries to the next wagering day…

Triple Double – This is where you can wager on the opening DD, and if you hit, then your ticket is alive for the next rolling DD. You get two in a row, and then the fun carries into the third and final DD. Hit all three, and you get the gold. If nobody hits it, then it rolls over again.

OK, if they don’t fit, and you want to play the prude, then by all means do-so. It wasn’t long ago that Keeneland had eight races, and one double.  The Pick-6 was a California dream, and the Super High-5 came from the Caribbean. It is all about fun and keeping the interest of the people. I like having a choice, and playing if I want….

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I’ll Bet

by Ed Meyer

posted on February 26, 2010 in General Discussion | No Comments >>

Being a race tracker is a badge. It is one that is earned and not given. It means you have taken your share of hits, both good and bad, and still climb up from the ropes to get back in the game. This is a game that cannot be taught in night school, and one you cannot learn in a quick lesson.

All gamblers love to win. It is the action that they crave. I have seen some that pout worse than a baby.  Others enjoy putting it all on the line.  For the many that have lost it all, they seem at peace. They seem like they are back where they belong: broke, and complaining.

Here are few types of folks that walk around every track or OTB in the land:

The Screamer – they yell at the screen as if the rider is hearing their voice like the hearken of God. They will never change, and you can see them beating their ass with a program rolled up tight in their fist. In the old days, we used to call them “stoopers,” where they would scour the floor looking for winning tickets. This was their game, but as they grew older, they became satisfied just yelling at the screen. Have you ever seen any of these creatures?

The Pouter – No matter what they do, they complain. If they win, it could have been for more. But, to a sorry degree, they lose more than they win. When they walk into the room, they suck out the energy just by being there. There is a character like this in every gambling movie.

The Optimist -  They could heal people just by sitting at your table. No matter how bad they lose, they always find a kind word to say about getting them the next day. Or, they cheer for you, harder than you did, the day you had the big win. They are rare. They truly are a gem….

The Professional – The reason you don’t know much about this type, is because they lay low and you probably don’t know one.  They are loners. They could have been a doctor or lawyer, but they are content with any job, as long as they can go to work playing the races. They can tell you what they make on every dollar, and they walk in the shadows. Not because they are hiding, but because they do not want to be there for the fun or the party. They don’t care if they have to pay to get in. It is the win they seek, and for the small percentage. They achieve their goals.

I used to work with a great handicapper. We used to put up $20 each day and pick the Keeneland card. We would score winners only. In the two years that we played these four meets, he only beat me once. The reason was simple. For the talent he had was overshadowed by his lack of confidence. It never fails, and I would take his $20 like a trophy fish. He once asked why I had it locked up every day, and didn’t I think it was weird that I always won. My answer was simple. I like betting on myself. I liked believing in what I was doing. To me, it was never about the win or lose. It was always about believing in myself… Now, I don’t know if any of that makes any sense. But just ask my friend. To this day, he still is a great handicapper who doesn’t think he can win….

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Florida Derby Proves To Be A Historic Stakes Race

by Greg Melikov

posted on February 25, 2010 in General Discussion, Other Events | No Comments >>

Ten Florida Derby winners during the past 54 years have won the Kentucky Derby. The first was Nashua in 1955 and the last was Big Brown in ‘08.

But nary a 3-year-old who triumphed in Gulfstream Park’s premier stakes race, scheduled for March 20, captured the Triple Crown. In ‘56, Needles came the closest. The Florida Derby winner, named for being inoculated often as a sickly foal, defeated Fabius by three-quarters of a length in the Kentucky Derby – the first victorious Florida bred.

But Fabius, eighth in the Florida Derby, upset Needles in the Preakness by three-quarters of a length. Needles took the Belmont Stakes while Fabius finished third.

The previous year, Swaps cost Nashua the Triple Crown by winning the Kentucky Derby by 1 1/2 lengths. In ‘58, Tim Tam missed out, finishing second in the Belmont to Cavan, with a broken bone in the joint between the knee and the hoof. In ‘68, Forward Pass lost by 1 1/4 lengths to State Door Johnny in the Belmont.

I witnessed my first Florida Derby in ‘57 a year after graduating the University of Miami. Gen. Duke defeated Bold Ruler by 1 1/2 lengths and set the stakes record of 1:46 4/5 for the 1 1/8 miles, which was recognized until several years ago, when the main track was expanded.

However, Quality Road’s winning performance in last year’s edition was a full second off Gen. Duke’s time. Even Quality Road’s track record victory in this year’s Donn Handicap was three-fifths of a second off the Calumet Farms’ horse 53 years ago.

On the eve of the 83rd Kentucky Derby, the son of Bull Lea came up lame and was scratched. Gallant Man was on his way to victory at Churchill Downs when Bill Shoemaker misjudged the finish line and Iron Liege won by a nose.

Bold Ruler took the Preakness and Gallant Man captured the Belmont. Gen. Duke later developed the spinal affliction known as wobbles and died.

The most exciting Florida Derby I witnessed came in ‘95, when favored Suave Prospect clashed with Thunder Gulch. It was a rematch following Thunder Gulch’s neck victory in the Fountain of Youth. The winner paid a generous $11.40.

In the Florida Derby, Suave Prospect was part of a three-horse entry, favored over Thunder Gulch on my birthday, March 11. Jerry Bailey, back aboard Suave Prospect, was hotter than the summer South Florida heat, scoring repeatedly. Mike Smith returned on Thunder Gulch.

Both horses stalked pacesetters to the far turn. Then Bailey gunned Suave Prospect from fourth to take the lead in the upper stretch by 1 1/2 lengths. But under Smith’s strong handling, Thunder Gulch wore down Suave Prospect, prevailed by a nose and paid $6.

After finishing a disappointing fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes, Thunder Gulch went off at 25-1 and, with Gary Stevens aboard, edged Tejano Run, ridden by Bailey, in the 121st Kentucky Derby. Suave Prospect, guided by Julie Krone, ran 11th while Smith’s mount, Talkin Man, finished 12th.

Eskendereya and Jackson Bend, the 1-2 finishers in this year’s Fountain of Youth, are on track for a rematch in the 59th Florida Derby. How exciting it will be is in the hands of the racing gods.

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Patience

by Ed Meyer

posted on February 25, 2010 in Free Picks and Tips, General Discussion, Kentucky Derby | No Comments >>

All of my pals are arguing over the Derby trail. They are already starting to get huffy over seeing glimpses of the big winner. Just be patient my boys. It is not time yet….

When we had Blood Horse Editor Tom LaMarra on our show, he said : “I like to wait until the last minute to make my final decisions.” I think if you are betting a few ducats on the Future Book, then speculate. If not, just take a breath. I am trying, and it gets harder every year. I have noticed that I do the best when I wait and take the majority of races in fully. It seems that if I start over-thinking, down the tubes I will go.

Here are a few that I have seen that deserve a thought at this point:

Rule - Pletcher is the trainer, and he is loaded this year. Didn’t we say that same thing in past years? His runner is versatile and runs on everything but blacktop and broken glass. It would not surprise me to see him appear at the $500,000 Lane’s End Stakes at Turfway Park, for a soft spot at a big pot.

Eskenderya – The “Todd-Squad” once again. Big winner in Florida, and you have to start thinking after that 8 – plus length victory, that we would see him down the road….

Super Saver - This one must be hot. My dad loves him! Even though he keeps calling him Super Baby, he looks good. Wait until he goes to New York, before buying your stock. I just hope Calvin Borel gets the mount. I think he would fit just fine.

Eightyfiveinafifty – I need one more race before I keep or scrap. A 17 1/2 length victory makes me think that all of those million dollar offers could not have been wrong. Just let him heal and wait…….

One to watch for the long haul is Aikenite.  This may be a slow developer, and the extra time may bring him along at the right time. The way he wanted to run only gave me outside hope. This is a long shot hope at this time, and only time will tell.. We can always scratch him off the list later.

There it is. I am not ready to compile a list, and I am on a scouting mission. If I see something, you will know. For me, the longer I wait, the better I will do… The boys at WP have held their own over the years, and if you keep them in mind, I think you may be ahead of the game.

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Greg Melikov’s Top 10 Derby Contenders

by Greg Melikov

posted on February 24, 2010 in Free Picks and Tips, General Discussion, Kentucky Derby | 1 Comment >>

It appears the Run for the Roses is the Todd and Bob Show as in trainers Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert. Here are my Top 10 contenders for the Kentucky Derby from bottom to top Dave Letterman style:

Super Saver: One of the many Kentucky Derby hopefuls trained by Todd Pletcher. The son of Maria’s Mon has been training well, but is not scheduled to debut as a 3-year-old until next month. Next race: Gotham Stakes on March 6 at Aqueduct.

Drosselmeyer: His fourth place finish in the Risen Star wasn’t too bad, making up nearly 2 1/2 lengths in the stretch and losing by less than 1 3/4 lengths. It was the son of Golden Ballet’s second trip on dirt after winning in allowance company at Gulfstream. Next race: Louisiana Derby on March 27 at Fair Grounds.

Buddy’s Saint: Two race winning streak was snapped for son of Saint Liam, when he had a disastrous start in the Fountain of Youth. Jockey Jose Lezcano said right after his ninth place finish on Feb. 20: “The other horses came in like nothing (on the first turn). I was already in a spot, and they came in and killed my horse; put him into the rail.” Next race: Florida Derby on March 20 at Gulfstream.

Jackson Bend: Runner-up in Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth needs to pick it up in next outing. Last victory in a route came last year as a top 2-year-old at Calder. Three strikes and the son of Hear No Evil is out of the Top 10.  Next race: Florida Derby.

Dublin: Poor showing in his last race in November led to successful epiglottis surgery. The son of Afleet Alex came from far back in the Risen Star, after starting slowly and racing wide off the far turn, to make up 3 1/4 lengths in the stretch to finish second. He plainly ran out of ground in the 1 1/16-mile contest. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is also breathing easier: “The further the better for him. He’s a big, imposing individual with a long stride.”

Discreetly Mine: One of many Kentucky Derby hopefuls trained by Todd Pletcher that shows promise. This son of Mineshaft captured the Risen Star on the front end when no foe wanted the lead. Tactical speed is a plus as he progresses. Next race: Louisiana Derby.

Rule: This Pletcher trainee is a horse for all tracks. The son of Roman Ruler has won four in a row. His victories were on Belmont’s sweeping track, Delta Downs’ fast and sloppy surfaces and Tampa Bay Downs’ quirky oval. Next race: Undecided.

Conveyance: One of trainer Bob Baffert’s stars is unbeaten in four outings, following his three-quarters of a length triumph in the Southwest Stakes. Transition to dirt went smoothly, but one question remains for the son of Indian Charlie: Can he get 1 1/4 miles? Next race: UAE Derby in Dubai March 27, Wood Memorial at Aqueduct April 3, or Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn April 10.

Lookin at Lucky: Baffert’s pride and joy hasn’t debuted as a sophomore, but has worked well. Despite being considered the top dog going 5 for 6, including runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in a horrible trip, the son of Smart Strike has time to get fit. Only negative: not racing on dirt with only two Kentucky Derby preps likely. Next race: San Felipe at Santa Anita or Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 13.

Eskendereya: An impresive 8 1/2-length victory in the Fountain of Youth puts the Pletcher trainee at the top of the 3-year-old ladder. The son of Giant’s Causeway has tactical speed and can win just off the pace, like he did Feb. 20, or can come from a bit out of it to grind down his foes. He’s 3 for 3 on dirt. Next race: Florida Derby.

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Nice Guys Finish First

by Ed Meyer

posted on February 24, 2010 in General Discussion | No Comments >>

It was just a number of weeks ago that Winning Ponies had on one of the nicest guys on our Internet Show. According to anyone you would ask, nice guys finish last. I have always believed in this old saying until this past week.

Calvin Borel was raised in St Martin Parish, Louisiana. He was riding match races when most kids were fiddling around fishing or goofing around with other kids. Like so many Cajun riders before him, he was brought up in a tough lifestyle. At age eight, he was learning the trade that would carry him to greater heights the rest of his life.

Borel has won the Derby twice. They would be Street Sense, and Mine That Bird. Both times he was a joy to watch, as he galloped back to the winner’s circle with a tearful set of eyes. The tears were not of the moment, but he wanted his mom and dad to have been there to see him do well.  It was his brother Cecil that raised him, and kept him on the straight and narrow. The day after winning the Derby, Borel was working in his brother’s shed row cleaning up. You would have not thought he had just won the Derby the day before.

This past year, he became the first jockey to take off of his Derby winner to ride another in the Preakness. When Rachel Alexandra came storming home that Saturday afternoon, Calvin Borel looked like the only guy with the plan.

This past week, he was awarded the George Woolf Memorial Award.  This has been presented by Santa Anita since 1950. It is an award that honors one of the greatest riders of his time, and recognizes the recipient for personal character and esteem in the sport of racing. They couldn’t have picked a better person …..

A two-time Derby winner, and regular rider for Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra, he is known for his rail-skimming trips, and is nicknamed “Bo-Rail.” He will be the 61st recipient of the prestigious award. Borel has won riding titles, and been a fixture on the Kentucky racing circuit for years.

Borel has gained the respect of many during his career as a rider. His efforts have not gone unnoticed. It was just this past year, the day before the Preakness, he could be very easily found. He was not attending media parties, but instead stayed at home and cut his grass. It has been this attitude that has taken him to the heights that he has achieved. During our interview, he said all that he wanted was for mommy and daddy to have been proud of him. Well Calvin, another job well done. I am sure they have been watching over you for these many years, and proud as can be….

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Wednesday Winners [Free Selections]

by Ed Meyer

posted on February 24, 2010 in Free Picks and Tips | No Comments >>

It is the “hump” day already. I personally hate the idea of looking at wishing away time, but look at it this way. The weekend is only a couple of days off and we are getting started with winners.

Rain is expected for the “Big A“, and we can look at some plays that may need to be hooked up with tier runners who hold a price. Some of these are not going to burn the barn down, but take what you can get….. Would you walk by $5.60 laying on the ground?  I thought not…..

Race #1 – #7 – Gimmeanotherwink – (2-1)

Channing Hill has the call for John Terranova, who is rolling at 26%. Together they make a 29% win rate and a 50% ITM call as winners.  2/2 at Aqueduct ITM, and that is a nice look. 1/1 over a track that is labeled as “off.” This is the 3rd off the layoff, and makes a stretch out to a mile from 6 panels. This barn moves at a 14% win rate, and 46% ITM on the distance change. There is a drop in class, and that only makes the runner more attractive.

Race #3 – #5 – Mt. Glttermore – (2-1).

Ramon Dominguez in the saddle for Gary Contessa, and they team up at 71% ITM. This is a 3rd off a layoff, and drops back in class. Checked at the break last out, makes a huge rider change, 3/3 on the soft track, and makes a drop in class as well. 2/2 ITM at Aqueduct, and has worked two bullets in a row coming into this heat. I think all systems are go!

Race #5 – #1 – Three in the Bag – (8-5).

C.C Lopez in the irons for Linda Rice, and they have a sweet 46% ITM record together. Been off since Saratoga, and is 9/12 at Aqueduct. 5/7 on the off going, and runs very well off of a break. Take a look at the last race where he was claimed for 25k from Anthony Dutrow. Today, he makes start for 16k…. 6/6 ITM at the distance, and if you go back almost one year to the day, he won by 4 lengths off a layoff.

Good luck!

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Monday Madne$$ [Free Selections]

by Ed Meyer

posted on February 21, 2010 in Free Picks and Tips | No Comments >>

I want to win every day, if at all possible. To start the week off in the right direction is good stuff. We are going to make a little trek to Columbus, Ohio (Beulah Park) and play some cheap claimers to the winner’s circle.

Race #2 – #10 – Worldbridge (4-1).

Yuri Yuraga is in the saddle for trainer Eric Reed.  They are winning 27% and 37% respectively. Team them up, and they win 60%, and have an 80% clip ITM. You gotta love that… This three-year-old seems to love the off going. He is 2/2 on the off going, and cuts back from 1 mile to six panels. Reed scores at 20% on this move. Rain is expected in the area, and all you have to do is hope that the price is not knocked down. The #10 hole may help, but he should be up close and pounce on the field as only Yuri can do…. Eric Reed is a dangerous man, and had a second place finish in the G-1 Alabama this year at Saratoga. He is head and shoulders above the crowd up there, and class will show today.

Race #6 – #7 – Favorite Valay (5-2).

Ramon Luna is in the irons for Raquel Castro, who is winning at 36%. He is making his third start off a layoff, and is 1/1 ITM at Beulah. This PA-bred can, and has, seen better competition.  2/3 over an off-surface and rain is expected in Ohio. Beaten favorite last out, and this trainer takes that pretty serious to come back and win 43%. There was a very nice mild rally last out, as I went back and watched the race replay. There will have to be some bit of pace to make the race, and Luna is equipped at getting them out the gate, as he used to ride quarter horses in Mexico as a youth. So, I would look for a better break, and stalk off the pace down the lane.

Sometimes you have to take what you get. I would dig deep and be sure to change the weather tab on Beulah to an off track. If the rain does not roll in, they have had about 3 feet of snow that is melting rapidly in Ohio.  Be sure to connect the dots, and get a piece of the multi-race gimmicks to spread out for maximum value.

Good luck!

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Sitting Around On a Sunday

by Ed Meyer

posted on February 21, 2010 in General Discussion | No Comments >>

I wrote a little ditty about watching the races on a Saturday. I watched, and some of the selections held sway. But, the overall theme is that backing off can cleanse your palate. I guess my cleansing worked.

Today, I had a friend that received his taxes back already. I guess he went to Mr. Tax, and they did one of those quickie payouts. Either way, he was asking me if I really liked anything today, as he was holding money that his wife did not know about. He didn’t have time to study, and he calls doing homework opening the program and picking a name. It doesn’t take brains, it only takes money…. So, he made the call and I was glad to impart my selections to him.

I was watching today and made a few bets myself. I was winning a few shekels, and I could only imagine what he was doing betting with a killer bankroll. I sure hope he nailed them, and he and the Mrs. can have a happy day.  I had a couple of very nice runs, and I could see him parlaying the day into a trip to the local casino to play $5 – $10 Texas Hold ‘ Em. He loves poker, and it takes a roll to sit down.

I guess not hearing from him has assured me of his day. I can see him with a bottle of beer, and stack of chips in front of him. All in due part to a couple of 6-1 shots that locked up.

I watched yesterday, and my palate is cleansed. Today was positive and you can watch with a purpose, or you can watch your life go by one minute at a time. I sure hope my pal took them down today. The groundwork was poured, and auto-pilot was on. All he had to do was bet enough, and the little lady and he could look back on this sunny Sunday with happy thoughts.

Just as I am writing this, the phone rang. I took a brief break, and it was my pal. He did do VERY well at the track. He was playing the rest of California, and going home for a shower. He has already called in for a personal day, and is heading down to that comfy chair at the poker table. The little lady is happy, and all is well. The best part about handicapping is winning. Coming in a close second place is sharing the info with your friends…

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