Chasing Yourself in Circles

by Ed Meyer

posted on January 17, 2022 in Blogroll, General Discussion, Handicapping, Horse Racing, | Comments Off on Chasing Yourself in Circles

It was a cold Sunday at Turfway Park and my buddy was hell-bent on taking down the final pick-four no matter what. – He had drawn up a ticket and made his wager. He was flipping between a bevy of gridiron glory and red-hot racing action. He quietly waited until the wager began and then focused on his big wager.

He bet a total of $150 and had a single in the third leg. – Gutsy move to say the least, and if he had a single there should have been no reason to go so deep in the water.

The first leg paid a solid $8.80 to win and looked like a good start. (3-1) is not a bad beginning, but, you’ll have to nail down a sweet double-digit price. – The 2nd leg, his two short prices ran 1-2 with the $2.90 – 1 shot winning to pay $7.80. Not bad if you had $10 to win on him, but for a P-4 it was not much. – Leg three was his single and he ran like a scalded dog paying $4.00 to win. He got the single, but there was no real price to offset the chalk. Even if he nailed the wager in the final leg he was looking at a small payoff. He loved the chalk but tossed in two prices as well. – The final leg crossed the wire with the favorite drawing clear to pay $3.40 to win.

Now, when we spoke on the phone he was dejected. He put up $150 to have a 50-cent return of $58.00 – We spoke for a while and he couldn’t figure where he went wrong. – Now, I’m not the Professor of Ponies but I’ll hang in there until he arrives for class.

“If you liked a single and he had to win for you to score. Why not just bet the entire amount to win on him? He paid even money and your $150 win bet would have yielded $300.” -You make a $150 profit and don’t worry about the other three legs. – He agreed.

In trying to win a wager he lost track of what really matters. – Turning a profit. – I think he had a few winners coming in and wanted to take down a wager where it normally pays pretty well. I can’t say it was the worst bet I’ve ever seen, but it was one where you win but you lose. Nothing like a $100 loss while having the winning ticket to re-adjust your sails. – He said he’ll start looking at the ticket to see if the payout is worth the wager, and I think he’ll move forward with the right plan.

He had his bet in his account and called me today. – “Anything running on MLK Day today? – Yes, there is a fun card at Santa Anita with five races on the turf from nine races.” – He’s ready to do battle with a fresh perspective. – Best of luck!