Keeneland flew by like a warm spring day and the Kentucky Derby 149 is in the books. Now, we have two weeks until the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown takes the track, and the waiting can be the hardest part. So, what’s a horseplayer to do??

First, I played for two days at Keeneland and made a total of five place wagers. – I wasn’t trying to win the Irish Sweepstakes, but we still turned a $51.50 profit for playing five races to place. Not bad, for a couple of days enjoying the action in historic Lexington, Kentucky.

Now, after the incredible Derby weekend, there was a ton of great racing action we hope you watched, wagered, and won! – Winning Ponies had $10,744.77 of “Big-Un” winners on Derby Day alone. Not too shabby as they always bring their “A” game for the big days. Keep this in mind as we head to the 2nd jewel in the Triple Crown to build your bankroll in advance and turn it loose on the Preakness card.  Never too late to jump on board. For the year to date, they have $6,990,588 E-Z Win scores and we are only in the month of May!

Things to look for as we head to Maryland. – There will be new shooters stepping up fresh and ready as they may have ducked the Derby or lacked the points for the starting gate. Fresh legs always have to be given a close look and pay attention to workouts leading up to the big race.

Look for runners who made a close effort in the Derby. – I’m hoping Two Phil’s has a shot at coming back after pressing a blistering pace where we thought it would be an average-paced race. He was in a perfect spot and made a tight rail move and opened up turning for home. As trainers for decades have been saying; “the stretch run at CD sometimes feels like it is an uphill battle.” – He ran a huge race with a tremendous ride. The fractions set up closers and he still hung on for a game second-place finish. – They shouldn’t run as fast in the Preakness, and if they decide to set blistering fractions “Phil” will just lay back a bit farther. I sure hope he makes the gate for the middle jewel.

Look closely to heavily bet horses that turned in a lackluster race. Facing a field of 18 can be a tough journey and I’ll be glad to toss out a poor effort for one race. Maybe a nice solid work and good press team reports will have you looking at the runner with fresh eyes. Don’t dismiss. You may get a better price this time around.

Now, if you haven’t downloaded your Winning Ponies E-Z Win Forms you may be leaving money on the table. Derby Day yielded $10,744.77 in payoffs for their selections. Not bad if I say so myself, and I would get in on the action by downloading your E-Z Win Forms now and build a nice bankroll for the Preakness card.

I liked the great week of action and I’m back in the game. I’m pretty excited about the 2nd jewel, and just like you, I’ll be looking to make some bankroll moves to get everything rolling. – We’ll be talking about horses to watch, notes for the upcoming races, and hot horses who need a good play. Until then, best of luck from Winning Ponies!

Prior to the Derby, a large envelope arrives. Just like a little kid waiting on my note from Santa, I tear into the package and find a dark green construction paper packet. About forty pages of the most comprehensive data put together by a single racing fan. It covers how he did last year; the history of the race, and how the “Kentucky Derby Comment Sheet” came into action. – I look forward to my gift yearly; and “once on the list, you are always on the list.” You must submit in writing to be taken off. – I’ll look forward to it for years to come.

It was 1998 when Jim McCullough passed away. His love for the Derby “may have been equaled, but not surpassed.” – Jim passed along his love for the sport, and on the first Saturday in May everyone was a racing fan. The “sheets” were a long-standing item waiting in the mail, and since 1959 many happy racing fans enjoyed his labor of love. Jim reached out through the “Sheets” to allow everyone to be a racing fan if even for a day to enjoy “The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports.” – Thank you for sharing your love of racing, Jim.

His son Kevin, quite the handicapper in his own right, has been putting out more information than the law allows. – From the first edition in 1959 of 12 copies to over 440 deliveries is quite impressive. – I’ve walked through tracks on Derby Day and saw many large green papers held tightly in the hands of the handicapper. It was a connection to the past and a celebration of the present. The “Green Sheet” is a connection between father and son that spans decades.

Kevin tracks his selections and how he did the past year. In the traditions of real handicappers, good or bad, he lets you know his record. – From the recap of the previous Derby to the intense breakdown of every possible prior to post-drawing time, you’ll have more information than you would find in most publications. – When he notes the passing of equine and human connections, you will find it hard not to reminisce about the passing of time. – He mentioned the passing of “Hammering Hank” Goldberg. A throwback to Damon Runyon’s time with vernacular only real gamblers could feel. It took me back to years ago when I was doing a radio show from my first Derby. I had a plethora of papers with smooth quotes and words to sound cool on the Cincinnati airwaves. Upon seeing the bright red roses and sunshine perfectly careening off the old press box where decades of scribes have covered the Derby. I look to my left and see “Hammering Hank” doing a radio show. I must admit for a horse player this was a real treat. – I tossed away my papers filled with quotes and slick words and decided to speak from the heart about this glorious day. – I was in the arena of radio shows taking place from around the world, and we were all trying to bring color and pageantry to listeners at home doing chores, cutting the grass, or listening to someone who loves racing as much as anyone. For a man like “Hammering Hank” to pass away in Las Vegas at his 82-years on his birthday; only makes me long for the days of listening to the gravel-voice gambler gives his selections with a back-room bookie feel.

Kevin dives into point systems of how to get in the field, Beyer figures, and Pedigree and Dosage. It has times and channels of where to catch the action, point standings, and a breakdown of runners that would be the envy of many publications.

I would be wrong for not posting who Kevin McCullough likes in the Derby: Tapit Trice.

I’ve read my friend’s handiwork and will have it in hand on the big day until post time. What served as an informational weapon will turn into a riding crop as they turn for home making the long run to the wire. – Kevin and his better half Mary have edited, prepared, and handicapped all for our enjoyment. – Just like his late father, Jim. Kevin brings the publication of the “Unofficial Derby Program” to life once again. Just like his father, he wants you to be a part of the greatest racing event. Quoting Kevin; “It brings back nothing but wonderful memories of how he and his dad would get excited each spring.

Thank you, Kevin, for carrying on your father’s labor of love. There are many horseplayers who relish seeing it arrive in the mailbox and tear it open like a Christmas present filled with great information. – When “My Old Kentucky Home” plays for over 150,000 race fans from all walks of life, I’m sure there will be a sense of connection between father and son. The beauty, the pageantry, and the memories will bring a lump to our throats and a tear to our eyes.

Best of luck my friend – Enjoy the day!

I tried my hand on opening day with three place parlays. – The first was a trainer scratch, the second was a winner, and the last bet ran a game third. – Only two bets, but just to show that even a small profit was made with only a couple of bets.

Keeneland / Weds 4-19-2023

Weather – Sunny and 80 degrees – Perfect!

As the first day of wagering went well, and a few bucks were made. – We bet $100 and got back $128.50. Sounds like we made $28.50 as we marched on to a gorgeous day in Lexington, Kentucky on Wednesday.

Race #1 – #6 – Baraye (5-2) = Two-year-old firster for Wesley Ward with Joel Rosario aboard. She is a $230,000 sales purchase and by Midshipman who wins with 19% of his first timers. Wesley Ward scores at a 30% win clip with his babies trying the track for the first time and should start off the day with a nice win.

$50 to place

Race #4 – #7 – Up and Down (7-2) = 2nd time out for the daughter of Creative Cause and gets first Lasix today for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. – Bumped around soundly last and we can toss that race and chalk it up to experience. She still managed to finish 4th place 7 months ago at Saratoga and should get a good stalking trip today.

$50 to place

Race #8 – #3 – Lady Dynamo (8-1) = Filly making her 2nd start shipping up from the FG running 4th on the turf. – Trainer Michael Tomlinson wins 20% 2nd time over the turf. Look for a close trip waiting to make the winning move.

$50 to place

Great racing with the best connections and riders are settling in at Keeneland. If you want the most comprehensive plan in data, you are in the right place with the Winning Ponies E-Z Win Forms. – Color-coded and easy to use for the big player or the first-time user. With over 5,268,600 in exotic payouts, how could you go wrong? – So, dial up some free selections and be sure and download your E-Z Win Forms to make your day a winner! – Best of luck from Winning Ponies!

The 15-day meet is a special boutique variety. In the span of opening day, you will see the biggest connections with the movers and shakers in racing. You’ll see $2,000 suits and men dressed in shorts enjoying the early spring weather. – You’ll be treated to a ten-race card and a first post at 1:00 p.m. – The opening day has sunshine and 58 degrees on tap with a 4 1/2f race and four turf races. The marquee event is the $600,000 (G1) Ashland Stakes.

I have been making small wagers for over a week trying to build a bankroll. I’m going to make some place parlays and see if I can turn $400 into a bigger bankroll for the Oaks/Derby cards. – Wish me luck, and best of luck to us all!

Race #1 – #4 – Baytown Admiral (9-2) = Jack Gilligan for Paul McEntee with a first-time starter by Lord Nelson. His dam Dblsecretprobation has 5 starters and 4 winners to her credit. She sports a bullet work over the track in a red-hot 35 for 3f. Look for a quick break and McEntee is a solid horseman who targets the meet in Lexington.

$50 to place

Race #4 – #7 – Hurricane Dream (3-1) = Frankie Dettori in the irons for Graham Motion and they add first-time Lasix where the barn scores at 23%. Toss out his last race in the G1 Pegasus Turf World Cup where he had a compromised beginning and was wide the entire trip. He comes in fresh off a two-month layoff and makes a big drop in class today.

$50 to place

Race #9 – The G1 Ashland Stakes –#4 Julia Shining (3-1) = This daughter of Curlin is 1 for 1 at Kee and adds blinkers today for Todd Pletcher and Luis Saez. She comes off a 55-day break and sports solid works at Palm Beach Downs training course. She may not have taken to the sandy Tampa Bay oval and enjoyed solid footing in Lexington. She has a strong late kick and will come calling down the stretch.

$50 to place

This should get us started with some solid plays on opening day. Gates open at 11 a.m., and the first post is 1:00 p.m. with the exception being Saturday with the first race going to post at 12:30 p.m. – I’ve been wanting to come back off my sabbatical and come out with a measured plan. I have always enjoyed the Keeneland meet and looked forward to starting my climb up Mount Bankroll. – Best of luck from your friends at Winning Ponies!

A few blogs ago I spoke of taking a sabbatical. A little break from the bump and grind of betting on a bad streak or without the passion needed to score. I didn’t need as long as I thought initially and felt ready to ask the coach to put me back in. My plans are to take a little more time and start on the opening weekend of Keeneland in April, but in the meantime, here is a little starter for me to handicap the big weekend at Turfway Park. I’ve watched many of the runners all winter long and wanted to handicap the card with open eyes and renewed energy. – So, enjoy the big races at Turfway and be on the lookout for my Keeneland wagers. I think we’re going to have some fun!

Turfway Park

Race #7 – The $250,000 Animal Kingdom – 6f – 3:43 pm

#4 – Eye Witness = Kent Desormeaux comes back to Florence for Wesley Ward. The barn is winning 37% for the meet and his maiden win was under Desormeaux back in January and was impressive going a mile. Today he turns back to 6f and sports bullet works over the track to prepare. Ward wins 33% over the all-weather surface and Kent D in the irons gives me greater confidence. – Turning back in distance with a sharp work has him ready to come out swinging.

Race #8 – The $250,000 Rushaway – 1 1/16 – 4:13 pm

#4 – Santorini = is the son of Twirling Candy for Todd Pletcher with Irad Ortiz in the irons. Making the turf-to-dirt switch yields a 27% win clip for the barn and the rider and trainer win a robust 38% as a team. Look for an up-close tactical ride that plays to the course very well.

Race #9 – The $250,000 Latonia Stakes – 1 1/16 – 4:43 pm

#11 – Bellamore = drops down in class today for Simon Callaghan and Martin Garcia. Coming off a four-month break in the G3 Falls City at CD and the daughter of Empire Maker is 2/2 on the synthetic surface at GG. – Going dirt to all-weather yields a 27% win clip for the barn.

Race #10 – The $300,000 – Kentucky Cup Classic – 1 1/8 – 5:13 pm

#10 – King Cause = is a Mike Maker trainee coming off a 56-day break and is 2/2 ITM at TP. – He drops down in class today in the hands of Gerardo Corrales. Look for an up-close ride and track the pace to the winner’s circle.

Race #11 – The $300,000 Bourbonette Oaks – 1 1/16 – 5:43 pm

#5 – Botanical = is a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro for Brad Cox with Chris Landeros in the irons. She is a stalker and sports a 3/3 winning record at Turfway. She won the $50k Cincinnati Trophy last out and looks to step up her game and lay just off the pace and pounce.

Race #12 – The G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks – 1 1/8 – 6:25 pm

#11 – Wadsworth = hails from the Brad Cox barn with Chris Landeros in the saddle. He is 2/2 at TP and makes his 3rd off the layoff move where Cox wins 22%. – He’ll stalk off the pace and strike when ready.

This is just a toe in the water for this handicapper. I can’t wait until the opening of Keeneland and I can employ the power of the “place parlay” and pick-fours with big guaranteed pools. – To begin again as a handicapper is one of the best feelings in the world. After all, it was the love of our game that drew us in the first place. – Best of luck from your friends at Winning Ponies!

Go back to the days of staring out the window while your history teacher droned on about the historical happenings way back in the day. – When the bell finally sounded and you looked at an empty notebook, you know you’ll pay the price later when the test day arrives. – Same process as playing with the ponies. The secret to having the notes which will allow you to peruse back and plan your attack later.

1.  Taking notes for a horses-to-watch list. – This goes back to the old days when bookies and big players would pay others to watch races and take copious notes about which horses may have had a bad trip, or faced tougher competition last out. Having a written account of trip notes will pay you off handsomely if handled correctly. Every race is not a bad trip and you’ll need to sharpen your eyes to know a bad trip from a wishful feeling about a wager you made. – Honesty pays off, and you need to watch the race live and go back and scan the replays. This will find your horses to play back next out and you’ll be happy you put the time into the process.

2.  Write down what you started with as a bankroll and bets made during the day. – Keep an accurate account of how you are doing and what percentage of your bankroll you dropped on a wager. – This will show if you need to scale back the number of races played and how much wagered. – When you find your best 12 for a marquee Saturday, cut them back to 10 events to bet. – Make your first bet, a 10% bankroll bet. If you have $200 for the day, make that first bet $20. Now, what is your type of wager? You need to stay away from bets you normally do not make and don’t chase the big multi-race wager if it’s not your cup of tea. – Keep to your 10% bet and when you identify your two best wagers, kick them up to 20% if your bankroll allows.

3. Identify which tracks are your strength. Do not deviate on marquee days or play a race card just because it has graded races. – If you’re a turf player, start scouting horses to follow. Hot trainers and bad trips. Look for a high percentage rider change, medication changes early in their career, and a rider/trainer percentage of 20% or better as a team. – Play outfits that are 20% or better of the year or the race meet, and look blazing hot pace trips that are suicidal for speed and sometimes tough to close into.

By keeping your eyes peeled, you’ll find your game moving upward. Put in the time instead of staring out of the window making “hot head” bets where you are hungry to get the first winner of the day. Patience and hard work pay off in the long run and you’ll enjoy playing the races more than ever. – Best of luck from your friends at Winning Ponies!

Horses thunder home and the wire is coming closer with every single stride. The crescendo of emotions is building like holding water back from the Hoover Dam. The excitement is building and the horses are nearing the wire. It’s going to be a close one, and the winner is…

Players waited with bated breath to cash a ticket, or have expensive stationery moments away. The photo sign gleams neon-red, and with each passing second seems like a small eternity of waiting for the mega-million balls to come rolling out. I digress. – The light goes off, and the decision has been posted on the board or matrix. – It’s final unless the stewards have a question about the running of the race. – Some will be high-fiving and others will curse loudly blaming everyone except the dog at home. But, not to worry. I’m going to give you a glimpse from behind the curtain of the decisions that are made high up on the upper floor. Without further delay, here’s what happens in the two minutes that have a weighty decision on how the gamblers will feel.

I have worked at five tracks and been in the placing/photo finish rooms during the course of the race. I will not speak once the horses load into the gate while the three placing judges countdown how many horses are still left to be loaded. – The photo operator has a trigger (like a toy gun) used as a backup timing start to what is in place with sensors and timing posts around the track for an up-to-the-milli-second time as soon as the gates spring open.

So, the horses are sent on their way. – One placing judge works the computer board which posts the top four leading the race. The other two shout-out numbers are to be typed into the board and changed frequently all the way to the 1/4 pole as we prepare to take down the entire correct number of finishers of the field. – The lights for the photo will be turned on at the 3/8 pole, and the photo finish operator has a plunger in his hand that when depressed and held will capture every horse that crosses the line. During the final process, there are no words spoken to ensure the three placing judges have an exact view from the finish line of the field. – The three judges ensure we will have a consensus vote, as we check against the photo finish operator’s televised view of the race crossing the wire. – The photo finish is used merely as an aid, and the decision of the three judges determines the official order of finish.

As the horses cross the line, judges quietly write down every horse as they see it cross the finish line. The room is quiet as a mouse pissing on cotton. – We convene to compare against the photo finish video and then read back one at a time who we see. – This is the part where the majority decisions rule, and in the event of a dead heat, we double down on looking at every ounce of separation to ensure the separation of finish. After all, this may be one of the most important aspects of the race order while down the hall three stewards examine the race with a laser-focused eye for any infraction during the race.

While some have their own opinion of what goes on during the race, this is what I have taken part in and watched during the running of the race. – For the minutes for each race worked, is an important part of the game where we want the integrity of the finish to be exact.

As I pulled back the curtain to let you inside what takes place in the judges’ stand, it is only a glimpse of what takes place as soon as the horses cross the wire. – Over the course of the year there will be many finishes called into question and decisions of the stewards haggled with. But, the integrity and transparency of the game are of top importance and all judges involved take their position very seriously. After all, there are many watching and wondering what goes on behind the curtains and we want you to fully understand what is taking place.

We all want positive results, but sometimes we can’t find a winner without a search warrant. But I digress. – We need to do some soul-searching and check our ego at the door. To achieve a new sense of who we are as gamblers is a trip down the rabbit hole at times. Without further delay, here we go!

Sometimes we need a break. Yep, have a coffee break from gambling. This allows you to realign who we are and make needed adjustments. The time away is good for the noggin. You settle in and watch the races without making a wager. Think of it as a “scouting mission” and pay close attention to the little things. “How’s the track playing? Is the rail dead as fried chicken, or is it the conveyor belt to the winner’s circle? – Who is hot in the jock’s room, and are there any new trainers to be aware of?” – All good info, and without the distraction of making bets you can watch with an unbiased eye. Give it a try and see for yourself. I would advise a sabbatical of three weeks or more.

Once back in the game, you’ll want to employ your new powers. Patience, money management, and a knowledge of the tracks you are playing. – Nothing like being prepared.

Sometimes the breakaway is self-awareness or imposed by lack of funds. Either way, take advantage of the time down. – Clearing the fog will make you hungry again to tear into a new day of racing. I’m on a journey as we speak because the Triple Crown is right around the corner. I am seeing things that may have eluded me when I had a $20 bet on the hook which may have skewed my perspective. – Just in the past few days; the Japanese runners are coming fully loaded to compete on the world stage, and a runner from the Rebel Stakes caught my eye and showed a degree of maturity not seen this early. More to come in the coming weeks.

Narrow your focus and set your sights. Just because a track has a graded race doesn’t warrant a bet. No tap dancing from track to track just to have action. Keep your cool and narrow your sights to where your strength is located. – By eliminating races just to have action can make your bankroll work for you. It’s a tough game turning a profit, but elimination is key to getting your average where you want it to be at the end of the day.

Taking time down is key. – After the World Series, the players get some downtime before heading back to rehab or starting the long road of training. Gamblers need the same time. It’s a mental game we are playing and it is paramount that we are in tip-top condition to make it happen. After a long meeting, there used to be some downtime before the horses would ship to the next track. Sometimes it was a week or more, and sometimes it could go a month. With the simulcast explosion long ago, players have so much action it can be tough to stay disciplined. Just take a breath and stay involved, but no wagering. The time will allow you to put your finger on what we’ve been doing wrong.

I know great handicappers and bad bettors just as lucky players who have no idea of why they bet. But when you take the time and meld the two. You’ve found the keys to winning.

The big marquee races hit the racetracks for the weekend and we love to see the big horses run. The swollen purses, the best riders for the top outfits. – We normally never even look at this track, but today we are going to hammer the big bets and take it down. – There’s a better chance of seeing a fat man in a speedo.

My waterloo has always been betting the Preakness card. I NEVER play the track, but for the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown, I’m going to smash the races and bring home the dough. But, as I begin the day with a great big smile, the end of the day usually has a completely different result.

I’m not really familiar with the trainers and riders who dominate the early part of the races. “How hard could it be? It’s the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown and I’m ready to win.” – Not the case.

I trudge through the card and try to pretend I know about biases, connections, and all of the little things that add up to the biggest differences between cashing your tickets and tossing them on the ground. I usually have a nice pile of tickets that become the world’s most expensive stationery. – What was I thinking?

This weekend is the Saudi Cup. There is a whopping $31,500,000 in purse monies and the best connections in racing will do battle. – The wagering is so enticing and you can’t help yourself from getting in on the action. – So, what can you tell me how the track plays? – How about any biases that may have erupted? – The feature race is worth $20,000,000 and there are only 13 horses to choose from. – What’s a gambler to do?

If you’re a regular player and have a good feel for the oval. Fire away! – If not, just watch the action and go on a scouting mission for later dates when they will make a trek to the states for the Breeders’ Cup. – Stick to your knitting (Only play tracks you follow) and you’ll be much the better. Trust me. I started the day with excitement and a bankroll and more times than not I am broke and have a bevy of excuses.

Just like the Preakness card for me. A track I don’t play or follow, but on this marquee day I’m going to be a “One Day Pro.” – It usually ends up going south and I have more questions than answers.

No matter the weather you can always count on the track condition at Turfway Park to be fast. – Tapeta is very similar to Polytrack. There’s almost no kickback and they say that it’s more versatile than Polytrack. It’s a very fair surface to race on and would be quite similar to a “Good” rating on a turf track.

Turfway’s new Tapeta main track is part of a larger renovation to the facility being undertaken by Churchill Downs Inc., which purchased the property in October 2019. CDI’s first order of business was to raze the aged grandstand upon the conclusion of the most recent meeting this past spring. It is slated to be replaced by a new structure that in addition to trackside seating will include a space for historical racing machines, which are casino-type devices that have proven a major boon to purse accounts in Kentucky.

The new Tapeta main track replaces the Polytrack surface that had been employed since 2005 and had shown deterioration in recent years. It has been in use for training since November and has drawn seemingly unanimous praise from horsemen. Among those are top conditioner Brad Cox, who will have a string at Turfway Park for the first time in more than a decade.

“I am really looking forward to having horses stabled at Turfway Park this winter,” Cox said. “It will be the first time I have had horses stabled at Turfway since 2008 and this allows me the opportunity to race year-round in Kentucky. Our horses have been training for a few weeks over the new Tapeta track and it appears to be an excellent racing surface. We are excited to be there.”

In addition to Cox there are several other new trainers expected to have a presence at Turfway Park this winter. They include Hall of Famer Mark Casse, Mike Tomlinson, Jonathan Thomas and Eddie Kenneally. Among the mainstays returning are leading 2019-20 trainer Mike Maker and Wesley Ward according to Horse Racing Nation.

Riders to play; Gerardo Corrales – Tactical rider who will get very busy down the lane when the real running begins. When he is locked in battle dueling it out, you can bet dollars to donuts; he’ll best the other rider as he knows just when to push the buttons.

Fernado De La Cruz – Once a Tampa rider has found himself a home. Very solid and you have to factor him when making bets.

Luan Machado – Talk about a rider who is on fire and doing well. Here he is. – Versatile in the saddle and dangerous when the real running begins.

Look for runners who can hang in mid-flight and be no more than 6-8 lengths off the lead. Closers can win, but make sure there is a plethora of speed that will cause a pace collapse.

The fields are chock-full and you’ll see more full fields than not. – Playing anything outside the 8 post can get a little troublesome. The rail can play “dead” at times and you’ll want to use runners who can play in the 3-6 posts. Keep in mind if playing a stalking sort, they can get a great trip stalking just off the pace.

Playing Turfway can give you a great deal of value during the winter months. Long ago, the Turfway signal was mainly cheaper claimers, but today the purses are swollen and prime for picking as everyone brings their “A” game to town.

As always, best of luck from your friends at Winning Ponies! – We’ll see you in the winner’s circle.