Bag Of Tricks

by Ed Meyer

posted on September 23, 2009 in General Discussion, Handicapping | No Comments >>

Every player has a bag of tricks, from where they feel they can pull useful info to find that winner. You must create one if you have no special criteria, and it is not really a bag of tricks. It is the accumulation of knowledge you have learned, which you apply to picking winners.

First, I look for any equipment taken off or on followed by bullet workouts. Trainers cannot change equipment off a win. This is a big clue for me. Also, add in the addition of a hot bug – rider. The light weight is used by savvy trainers looking for an edge. The riders usually have come out in the morning and the plan has been laid out.

Second… You MUST go back and look at the race if you have not seen it live. This trip handicapping will payoff more times than not. With the addition of free stable email alerts to notify you 48 hrs in advance of your target horse running… Nobody has the recorder memory… This will serve you well…..

Third. Pay attention to track biases. Watch for runners that stay off of the rail; if the poly plays more speed than closers, or if trainers who stable at the track do better than shippers. Track biases are out there, and it will pay dividends to those who watch.

Fourth. Look for trainers and riders who team up well together. They usually workout the runners in the morning, and they know each other very well. These stats will be shown at the bottom of the page showing the percentages. Good stuff to know…

Fifth, and maybe should be first, money management. Never bet more than 5% of your total bankroll on a race. With the takeout and natural losses that occur, you will go broke picking winners. Sounds crazy? Just do the math when you take out 17 – 18% of the wager pool. Add in a few losers, and you are looking uphill at getting back to snuff. How can you get ahead, if you spend your time getting even? Pick your ten top races on your way to the track. Then select your best six…. Then, you will wager on the best four races…. Go ahead and do a parlay. This can make for a big day. If you like a horse in the P-4 or P-3, then single them and decorate around them in the races leading up. But stick to the 5% rule. However, if it is a P-4 or P-3, and you want to spread out, then prepare to use your bankroll on that move. If it hits, you get the gold. If not, you stuck to your guns… Never go to the track, or just bet with info in your hand, without a plan.

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