Free Selections – Weekend Warrior Picks

by Ed Meyer

posted on November 29, 2019 in Blogroll, Free Picks and Tips, Handicapping, Horse Racing, WinningPonies.com | No Comments >>

The turkey hangover is starting to subside and you’ve seen enough pie until Christmas. It’s time to hit some winners and have a little something extra to be thankful. Think of this as a little early edition of Santa sliding down your chimney with a bankroll.

 

Churchill Downs

 

Saturday

 

Race #5 – #3 – Cardiac Kid = Son of American Pharoah for Kenny McPeek – Been off 2 months and his last race showed good promise on the sod.

 

Race #8 – #10 – Cornbread Kingdom = His dam has 2 starters and 2 winners – This son of Uncle Mo has a sparkling workout and may be dangerous right out

 

Race #9 – The G2 Golden Rod – #2 – Turtle Trax = She is a solid closer and gets two turns today – Leparoux will have her in top gear turning for home

 

Race #11 – #4 – South Bend = This colt is a perfect 3/3 with wins and has two wins over the CD oval – He’s gonna be nasty tough.

 

 

 

Sunday

 

Churchill Downs

 

Race #7 – #5 – Speightstown Angel = McPeek trainee who was moving late and showed good late kick going 7f – Cuts back to 6f and get a new rider in B.J. Hernandez.

 

Race #8 – #3 – Perfectly Majestic = Been off for more than a year for the Peter Miller barn who is winning 44% at the meet – Takes a class drop, works over the track, and the barn wins 23% off a last race win.

 

Race #9 – #8 – Liberty Blue = Son of Constitution who wins 23% with his first time starters. – Well, this is his 2nd start but was very rank down the backstretch. – I’m tossing that race and enjoying the move to B.J. Hernandez for Ken McPeek and the price is square.

 

Race #11 – #2 – Chess Chief = Blinkers off and a huge drop in class. – Dallas Stewart does well with fresh runners and some solid works over the track.

 

 

Friendships That Last Forever

 

Today started out as usual.  Bowl of oatmeal and watching the squirrels play. Sit and read a little social media and wish some friends a happy birthday. – Then, it is right onto the racing rags. I love my morning routine. Music in the background and some typing to be done. Not a bad start to the day. – Then the phone rang.

Friends made at church, school, on sports teams last. – Friends made at the track last forever. – Last night John McDulin was called home by our Lord. – Upon my first meeting, I learned how he fell in love with racing. – “Steady Eddie, I used to go to the races with my grandpa. He was a butcher and Monday was his off day. – As we were walking in I heard this booming voice announcing live races. It was at this time I asked, do they get paid for doing that? – After finding out they do, I wanted to work at the races ever since.” – That started my friendship with Mac.

I’ve known Mac for quite some time. – He had a laugh to make your heart smile, and a square jaw handsome that must’ve gotten him plenty of dates in high school. Quiet for the most part and generous to a fault. That was Mac.

He worked for Equibase for years and would call races into a little recorder. – After the race, he would work with his longtime partner and input the info into the computer.  These guys made easy work of charting a race and were damn good at it. – John also filled in to call the races, and only a few years ago he went to Hazel Park to fill-in. Mac was a “jack-of-all-trades” and loved working in racing.

More than racing, he loved his family. Especially his grandkids. – If he had $100, he would spend $300 on all of them. Mac always put others first, but the grandbabies were always the tops. – My son and I went to WWE wrestling with him and his family, and he and I loved to have a beer (s) and bet a few races at the end of the workday. Johnny Mac was always a good time. Wings and beers some days, and others we would pull together a couple bucks and squeeze in a bet. Yeah, it was fair to say Mac loved the horses.

When I heard his longtime friend/partner/buddy call me asking if I had heard anything. I had a bad feeling. – It was about two minutes later a text came through bringing the worst news. John had passed away the night prior. – These past years he had some tough health issues but still kept his chin up. – When he would call he would always ask if you needed anything or if he could help you. That was Mac.

As I stated earlier, friends met at the track last forever. – John McDulin will always remain in my heart. – If Heaven has a race track, I’m sure John is there. I’ll bet dollars to donuts he’ll be working at Pearly Gates Downs watching the all-time greats. Or, that’s what I would like to think. – We’ll meet again someday, my friend. – Until then, know there are many lives you’ve touched and countless who will never forget you. – Mac, thanks for stopping our way. Rest in peace, my friend. – Your friend, Steady Eddie.

Free Selections – Tuesday, 11/19/19

by Ed Meyer

posted on November 20, 2019 in Blogroll, Free Picks and Tips, Handicapping, Horse Racing, WinningPonies.com | No Comments >>

Not much going on, huh? – Well, there are winners to be had and bankrolls to be built. – Even though the marquee racing waits until the weekend, big winners and money can be made. – Sit back and enjoy a few free selections to get Tuesday started off right. – Best of luck from Winning Ponies!

 

 

Parx

 

Race #4 – #12 – Final Prospect (5-1) = Jamie Ness trainee dropping down two class levels. They win 28% on this move and having the hot hand of Trevor McCarthy in the irons is a plus. He owns some solid works and the price may be worth the reach.

 

Race #5 – #5 – Rolls Royce Joyce (10-1) = 1st timer by Uptowncharliebrown who wins with 28% with his first-time starters. Trainer Edward Coletti wins 28% with 2-yr-olds. Rider Kendrick Carmouche wins 19% with sprinters.

 

Race #8 – #7 – Barley Jack (7-5) = She’s a horse-for-the-course going 7/10 ITM and seeks her 4th straight win. Jamie Ness runner dropping in class off a win and you may want to use a “free spot” in multi-race wagers.

 

Finger Lakes

 

Race #2 – #3 – Fearless Diva (8-5) = Jeremiah Engelhardt runner and he is winning at a red-hot 29%. 2nd off the layoff and drops in class coming in from Woodbine.

 

Race #5 – #8 – Everything Pazible (2-1) = 2nd off the layoff for Charlton Baker winning 28% at the meet. He drops in class and has the hot boot of Jaime Rodriguez.

 

 

Mountaineer

 

Race  #1 – #8 – Odie (4-5) = Tons of speed coming in from Keeneland with red-hot rider Deshawn Parker in the saddle. Ethan West training fresh off the claim and the barn wins 20% moving from Mdn Clm to Mdn Sp Wt. He owns a bullet work at Turfway and look for a win here as a “free spot” and follow this son of Scat Daddy right back to Turfway after this win.

 

Race #2 – #3 – Joe’s Keeper (8-1) = Bet heavy at the windows last out and I’m tossing as he didn’t like the muddy/sealed track last out.

 

Race #4 – #7 – Just One Look (7-2) = Horse-for-the-course who is 2/2 with wins. Tons of speed which does well at the mountain.

 

Race #7 – #7 – Sing the Song (5-2) = Speedster shipping in from Texas and was a beaten favorite last out. The Matt Hebert barn wins 25% looking for payback and should give them plenty to chase.

The Happy Horseplayer

by Ed Meyer

posted on November 18, 2019 in Blogroll, General Discussion, Handicapping, Horse Racing, WinningPonies.com | No Comments >>

The H.H. is checking in and wants to see how you’re doing? – Me, I’m getting my butt whipped by a nasty head cold. I sound like a mix of Barry White and Trace Adkins. But, I digress. – I had a ‘fever dream” last night and awoke in a frothy sweat. – I was reliving my past year of gambling. That alone is enough to keep you up all night.

I’ve found a few answers. Yes, only a few. – The dream, the cold, and my year at the windows have me wanting to jump in the “Bet-Mobile” and hit the races. – Or, maybe just load up my account and watch and wager from home with a big slug of DayQuil.

As 2019 is winding down, I like to go back and take a look at my past year of wagering. It’s not a Dicken’s-type dream, but I did awake with a new attitude. I would suggest you give it a try. Think of it as going in for a massage and steam. It gets rid of all the toxins.

 

1. – Bet too much / Bet too little

I’ve always been a big fan of making power plays on your best bets. – You decide. Turf, dirt, poly, sprint, routes. You make the call. – Find your niche and turn it loose. Looking back on the year I didn’t make enough big bets on races I loved and found myself making small bets on races with little opinion.

This is the worst of the worst for me. – I warn, argue, and beg you not to do the same and fall into my own trap. – No matter what your “unit” bet ( $2, $5, $100) find the best races on the card that fit your strength. Say you’ve found four races. Now, select the top two you really like. – If you normally bet $2, make it a $5 bet. Just double your wager and watch your bottom line. I’ll bet dollars to donuts you’ll do much better in the long run. – No more “tap dancing” wagers in 2020. Those are the ones where you wager to have action. – Don’t punish yourself, the year is in the books. Just take a good look at what you’re doing and make the needed corrections.

2. – Blame Game

I have a friend who will find blame for any loss she endures. – The horse loses by a nose, it’s my fault. A nice winner who pays sweet. – Her friend talked her out of betting too much. You get the idea.

This year, start taking responsibility for your bets. – It’s your bet and your call. Nobody is holding a gun to your back. – Don’t make excuses and get in the game. – Get a grip on the blame game and you’ll start enjoying the action.

Even though it’s not my bad habit it is one worth mentioning. – How many people do you know can blame the wind, sun, or too many people cheering? – Yeah, you get it. Don’t be this gambler.

 

3. -Info Overload

Players tend to think the more info they have they are finding the secret sauce to winning. Not true. – You’re on a great site for handicapping info and the year is off and running. – The year has yielded $8,476,373 in exotic payouts. These are the E-Z Win Form predictions that have been on fire. – If you played the Breeders’ Cup you may have noticed a $55,668.00 pick-six payout. If you downloaded the E-Z Win Forms you may have been on board for the big win. – We had plenty of winning members who’ve been long-time believers in the system. – It’s never too late and there is still plenty of racing to finish up strong in 2019. – Make Winning Ponies your one-stop-shop for all of your handicapping needs.

 

 

Betting Buddies

by Ed Meyer

posted on November 16, 2019 in Blogroll, General Discussion, Horse Racing, WinningPonies.com | No Comments >>

The best part of being a handicapper were the friendships made along the way. – Feel free to quote me if you wish. Not that “Papa” Hemingway would be jealous or Bukowski angry. – It was the friendships that made the cold nights watching cheap Thoroughbreds seem like the Kentucky Derby.

I was too young to hang with dad inside the track. – My mother, brother, and I sat in an old rusty station wagon. Mom would pack a dinner on the “go” and we would do homework, play ball with other race track kids, and occasionally watch a race. Mom was a version of Mr. Rogers, umpire, teacher, and chef. She always made sure we had what we needed as my dad would play a few races. – The process began.

Things change. Yes, they surely do. – I can remember driving out to watch the final four races on the race card with my dad and grandpa. – I was about 11-yrs-old and relished every second. Especially if my dad had a winner and $2 was sent my way to make a place bet. – There was nothing better. I was in the game and one of the boys.  Making that drive in the “Bet Mobile” was pure magic.

Grandpa passed on, as dad and I made trips to Beulah Park, Keeneland, Louisville Downs, Scioto, Latonia, and the gem of my heart River Downs. – We rooted with the blazing sun on our back and hunkered down in the dank cold basement of Latonia. – The best part of the evening was we were together. – We would talk about the big night ahead on the drive out, and the excuses of how the big one got away heading home. – These times were golden for a handicapper.

I started working at the track as a parking lot worker and dad would make the drive alone. He would ask when I got off and I would run in to meet my gambling partner. $2 bets, cold beer, and friendship. – What more does a man need?

As the years passed, I made my way inside to work as his trips began to diminish. – I was busy and life was in full swing. – I walked around the large track now named Turfway remembering every night, bet, and evening spent with my best friend. – My job was taking me up the ladder, but I would still take walks around the building living in the past. – When you do what you love. You get double happiness. Once while you’re doing it and the other looking back with a smile on your face.

Betting on the computer emptied the track and turned it into a ghost town. – No more father/son trips as my dad love’s to sit at home and make wagers on his account. – He makes the yearly trek and mainly plays slot machines and keno. Oh, how the game has changed.

Latonia was built in 1959 long before my birth. – My dad was a young man when he first headed out to watch the Trotters and Thoroughbreds depending on the time of year. He and my grandpa were betting buddies. – I made friends along the way. At first, they were my dad’s and eventually my own. – I made lifelong friends who were my groomsmen when I got married, and to this day we talk horses. – In 1986, Jerry Carroll purchased the old gal and transformed her into a shiny new facility. The name changed and the crowds packed. The OTB betting explosion happened and we could wager on every signal being shown. – These were the salad days of gambling. It seemed as if the sky was the limit.

I left the track and worked at River Downs, Keeneland, and Belterra Park over the years.  Since I have returned back to Turfway for the final meet. I work in the racing office and as a placing judge. – At the end of the meet, they will tear it down. Churchill Downs purchased the track and will replace it with a state-of-the-art facility. – The old facility is showing its age and will be replaced. – From the original Latonia in 1883 to the new Latonia in 1959. Then onward to Turfway Park in 1986. This building has played a great role in my life. It was a place to cultivate my love of the sport, work my way into the industry, and meet lifelong friends. As I look back, it won’t be the winning days I’ll remember. It will be the people. My betting buddies.

I’m sure I’ll take some walks around the building this meet in between races. – Memories around every corner and ghosts from the past bringing a smile to my heart. – These days I find myself making fewer trips to Keeneland, and the Kentucky Derby is watched from my big screen at home. I guess that’s part of the plan. – I look forward to the shiny new Turfway, and I’m sure Churchill Downs will summon the ghost of Matt Winn to keep Kentucky racing growing for the future.

 

That’s What I’m Talking About!

Image result for pics of money

 

 

We all dream of the big score. – C’mon, we all do it. – With the Breeders’ Cup in the books, many of us are looking forward to the next big race meet. Then there are players who took a different road. They downloaded their Winning Ponies E-Z Win Forms. 

So how did it work out? – Well, for a lucky few there are some life-changing events in their future.

The testimonials are rolling in. They come from members just like you and me, and the only difference is they downloaded the E-Z Win Forms. – As you read about the big scores on our homepage. Remember, it’s not too late. – Just download your E-Z Win Forms and we’ll be more than happy to share your big score! – If you’re still in doubt, just take a look at the testimonials and you’ll be a believer.

 

The pick-six was taken down on the biggest weekend of racing. – It only paid $55,668, and the cost was $486. – For a score like that, I would call the investment quite a bargain. Here’s a glance at what some monster scores look like:

https://www.winningponies.com/testimonials.html#9847405

 

Now, I love to see a big win, and the members who took down the big score are happy campers! – Then I got to thinking. I use the top three E-Z Win selections to make exacta boxes and multi-race wagers. – Oh, it’s too late to cry in my beer, but it sure gives me plenty to think about next time around. – It was right there under my nose, and maybe next time my name will be right there with the big winners. – It’s never too late to get on board and let the winning begin! – Best of luck from your friends at Winning Ponies!

 

 

 

A Tale of Two Gamblers

by Ed Meyer

posted on November 6, 2019 in Blogroll, Breeders Cup, General Discussion, Horse Racing, WinningPonies.com | No Comments >>

Image result for gambler pics

 

How’d you do?- Did you take it down? – Any big winners? – It sounds like every conversation between friends or acquaintances. – You settle in and listen to the day’s events or spinning your tale. – It was this thought that had me ask the golden question to a couple of hard-core gambling friends.

 

Gambler buddy #1

 

He loves to play doubles and pick-fours. – He swings for the fences and is not afraid to push the “all-burger” as he calls it. You and I call it the “all-button.” – Without further delay here is his day at the races.

Race #6 – Omaha Beach = He made a $200 win bet as he thought this was a “lock” if there was one on the day. – Ran 2nd, and tickets on the floor.

Race #7 – Vasilika = He was so sure the runner from the left coast would come flying he doubled down his win bet. It wasn’t enough to cover the national debt but it was enough to make a car payment. $600 to win on the left coast closer. – Prat scooted up the rail and was bested by a dirty neck. – I think he was fit to be tied.

His pick-four tickets hinged on beating one chalk. Only one. – He had a key and was going to have a handful of 50-cent tickets totaling over $800. – Pretty good swing at the fences if you ask this handicapper.

Race#9  He keyed #11 – Uni and bet a sweet $100 to win! – He got back $460 and had the P4 rolling.

Race #10 – He used #11 – Blue Prize off a strong Kee win and #4 – Midnight Bisou. – They ran 1-2 and the winner paid $19.80! – Looking good!

Race #11 – He thought that Bricks and Mortar offered NO value. On that note, he spread to beat the chalk with: #3 – United, #5 – Anthony Van Dyck, and #11 – Arklow. – When he turned for home with United flying at 51-1 and grabbed the lead only to be beaten by a head by Bricks and Mortar. – Mad wouldn’t fit his mood. I think he’s still bitching somewhere and won’t stop until Christmas – And for the tough part, he had:

Race #12 – #10 Vino Rosso, and #8 – McKinzie. – They ran 1-2 and the P4 paid $440.80 for a 50 cent ticket. – He tossed down a handful of the most expensive stationary in the world.

Tough day at the races for sure.

 

Gambler buddy #2

We call him “Spot” as he’s the undisputed “King of the Spot Play.” – He was going to play two races that offered value and no more. – He said there was plenty of football and he would check back and catch the racing action. – This guy is one disciplined player.

Race #7 – #7 – Vasilika = He was so sure the California runner would take to the turf; this was going to be his biggest bet. He was just afraid of the stats promoting all of the Euro winners that ruled the race. – Well, Spot wasn’t wrong. He made an $800 place bet on Vasilaika and looked like a winner scraping the hedge. – When he was beaten by Euro Iredessa by a neck he looked like a genius! – His runner paid a sweet $5.40 to place for $2,160, and a profit of $1,360!

Race #8#4 – Mitole = When he bet $400 to win on the heavily bet colt. It was 1:09 flat later he reeled in $1,120 for a profit of $720. – Pretty good shooting for Spot.

Spot pulled off his best day in awhile – It reminds of when he drove to Keeneland on a busy Saturday. He made one bet and took home $3,800. – Right after the race he walked to the car and drove two hours home. – Yeah, it’s fair to say he’s disciplined.

 

If you asked 100 players you would hear 100 different stories. – Me, I didn’t pull a “Spot” and I didn’t get smashed like Hammer. – I had some fun and played the races. For me, that was the idea. – Going to the races with friends is great. – I’ve known these knuckleheads for years, and they are two of the best cappers I know. – Both are already qualified for the Las Vegas for a multiple time to battle in the biggest contest in the country. – I wish them the best of luck, and if there could be a dead-heat, I would love to see both holding big checks and trophies.

 

 

How Did You Do?

Well, the big weekend came and went and the winners were crowned. – I guess we did see the best horses on this day get their picture taken. – I put out some selections to get you in the mood for handicapping and made a little visit back to see how I did for the day.

 

Race #4 – F&M Sprint

#5 – Lady Ninja = Finished 8th at 22-1 / It happens…

 

Race #5 – BC Turf Sprint

#5 – Stubbins = Finished 4th @ 11-1 / Getting a little closer

 

Race #6 – BC Dirt Mile

#5 – Omaha Beach= Finished a tough 2nd

 

Race #7 – BC F&M Turf

#7 – Vasilka = She was ultra game running 2nd by a neck

 

Race #8 – BC Sprint

*** Imperial Hint was a late scratch – You can win if you’re not in!

 

Race#9 – BC Mile

#11 – Uni = Winner, winner – Paid $9.20

 

Race #10 – BC Distaff

#4 – Midnight Bisou = Bridesmaid again! – 2nd

 

Race #11 – BC Turf

#9 – Bricks and Mortar = Chalky winner  $4

 

Race #12 – BC Classic 

#10 -Vino Rosso = Winner-winner Chicken Dinner / $11.20

 

I wasn’t overwhelmed with my winners. But, at least I’m in the right church. – That was until I went back and checked Winning Ponies. – After further reflection. I need to follow the Winning Ponies E-Z Win Forms a whole lot more…

The Winning Ponies E-Z Win Forms gave out the winning pick-six ticket $55,668

 

Not bad if you ask this gambler. – The exotic payout total is $8,151,176 to date for the year. – Think of Winning Ponies as your one-stop-shop for everything racing. Kick-off your week with stories, blogs, and free selections. Each and every Thursday at 8 pm, join us for the Winning Ponies Internet Show with host John Engelhardt. – John will have the best minds in racing talking about the issues, plans for the future, and some of the best handicappers in the land. And if you miss it; go back and catch it on podcast. – After you’ve read, and tuned in. It’s time to download your Winning Ponies and get down to the business of winning. - Best of luck from your friends at Winning Ponies!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Free Selections – Breeders’ Cup – Saturday

The big weekend is upon and the waiting is over! – There are 14 races with an average of 11 runners per race. – The International contingent has 33 Euros, 1 from Japan, and 1 from Korea. – You’re getting the best from around the world. What more could a horseplayer desire?

 

 

Saturday

 

Santa Anita

 

Race #4 – The BC F&M Sprint – 7f  2:55 pm EDT

 

#5 – Lady Ninja = Richard Baltas trainee with Drayden Van Dyke in the irons. She is 9/10 ITM at SA. 2nd off a layoff and she’ll be rolling late in the lane.

 

 

Race #5 – The BC Turf Sprint – 5f on turf – 3:33 pm EDT

 

#5 – Stubbins = Doug O’Neill trainee with Flavien Prat in the irons. Exits a huge win in the G2 Woodford at Kee. Prat wins 24% with his turf runners.

 

 

Race #6 – The BC Dirt Mile – 1 mile – 4:10 pm EDT

 

#5 – Omaha Beach = 2nd off the shelf for Dick Mandella and Mike Smith. – Mandella does awfully well in his own backyard and this runner has been chomping at the bit to get back on the big stage.

 

 

Race #7 – The BC F&M Turf – 1 1/4 on turf – 4:54 pm EDT

 

#7 – Vasilka = She’s won at this distance and Flavien Prat will have in high gear turning for home as he knows how to get her best stride.

 

 

Race  #8 – The BC Sprint – 6f – 5:36 pm EDT

 

#9 – Imperial Hint = Gutsy winner in the G1 Vosburgh and his works are sharp. Javier Castellano in the saddle and this versatile runner will be awfully tough.

 

 

Race #9 – The BC Mile – 1 mile on the turf – 6:20 pm EDT

 

#11  Uni = Winner of the G1 First Lady and faced the boys in the past. Chad Brown spots them in the best places and Joel Rosario is ready to get his picture taken.

 

 

Race #10 – The BC Distaff  – 1 1/8 – 7:00 pm EDT

 

#4 – Midnight Bisou = She is seeking her 8th straight win and loves the oval at SA going 4/4 ITM. Mike Smith will give this lady a perfect ride.

 

 

Race #11 – The BC Turf – 1 1/2 on the turf – 7:40 pm EDT

 

#9 – Bricks and Mortar = Chad Brown trainee with Irad Ortiz in the saddle. They are seeking their 7th in a row and Ortiz wins 21% with his fast closing runners. This son of Giant’s causeway is a monster!

 

 

Race #12 – The BC Classic – 1 1/4 – 8:44 pm EDT

 

#10 – Vino Rosso = This son of Curlin was DQ’ed in the G1 Jockey Gold Cup and he is 1/1 at SA. – I think we see connections looking for some payback today. He’ll be up close and ready to fire when Ortiz hits the gas.

 

 

Remember, for the most comprehensive view on how the races will take shape. Be sure and download your Winning Ponies E-Z Win Forms. Easy to use and ready to win. – What are ya’ waiting for? – It’s almost post time! – Best of luck from Winning Ponies. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A Shot at the Title or a Seat by the Band?

Playing the Breeders’ Cup can be sticky wicket if you’re not prepared. – I guess that is the key to most any day, but this weekend is something completely different. Nobody is using this race to see what they have or prepare for a G-3 at Somewhere Downs. – The key is simple and it starts right here!

 

The E-Z Win Forms are a one-of-a-kind handicapping tool. – Rarely can a new handicapping program be used by new players and seasoned players?  This is where Winning Ponies differs. With over $7,789,802 in exotic wager winnings, you’ll want to be on board before the first race goes to post. – Here is a guide on how to use the Winning Ponies E-Z Win Forms:

 

Follow The Tiers

This is the most important concept when reading my handicapping picks. The horses are grouped into color-coded tiers. The tier colors are displayed as the background color of each horse’s program number. The colors range from dark green to yellow.

They are very easy to use at first glance and the best part is you’re not being told to use just one horse. – You’re being shown how the race will take shape and all you have to do is follow the color-coded tier levels.

Handpick Your Races

Although we are successful at predicting many races, it is common sense that you must be selective when choosing the races to bet. You will not be as successful if you bet every possible race. Typically, we look for races with smaller top tiers (one or two horses in the tier). I also skip races if there are one or more horses in the grey tier.

It Takes Money to Win Money

While you should handpick your races to conserve your bankroll, be prepared to commit enough money to make a proper bet when you find a race you like. Exotic wagers such as Pick 4s, Pick 6s, and Superfectas usually require a significant outlay to have a realistic chance of hitting the bet. I cannot tell you how many times eliminating one or two horses from your combination to try to save a couple of bucks has cost a bettor hundreds or thousands of dollars in lost winnings.

Workouts, Workouts, Workouts

Besides our selections, workouts are the second most important gauge of a horse’s ability. Past performances indicate a horse’s basic ability. Recent workouts are an indication of a horse’s current form. When choosing between two horses with similar past ability, the horse in the best current form will often prevail.

We analyze the quality of workouts for you. Workouts highlighted in red are quality workouts. In addition, if you see the “Monster Workout” icon for a horse, keep an eye out!

Turf vs. Dirt

Horses are either main track horses or turf horses, not both. It is very rare that a horse will run well on both surfaces. Breeding plays a major factor here, as there are physical aspects of a horse which make the horse better on the turf or dirt.

It is enough to know that if a horse looks terrible on the dirt (but has shown some promising short distance workouts), there’s a good chance the horse will perform well on the turf. A horse that is predisposed for turf can look like a completely different horse when moving from the main track to the turf.

Another way to gauge if a horse will like the turf is to see if the horse ever ran on a wet dirt track (Good, Muddy, or Sloppy). If the horse ran significantly better on the off-track than a Fast track, the horse may take well to the turf.

Track Condition

This is a HUGE factor. Similar to the dirt vs. turf issue, some horses prefer a dry track while others prefer a wet track. This applies on the dirt as well as on the turf. In fact, this is often the case with European turf horses. The turf courses in Europe are frequently soft, and European horses usually don’t run as well on a firm course here in the States.

A simple way to determine if a horse likes an off-track is to check his Wet record on our E-Z Win Forms or look at the horse’s individual past performances on a wet track. Luckily, we do the analysis for you for all track conditions. In addition, we also analyze turf races for the dirt (just in case they come off the turf due to inclement weather).

Simply select the dirt and turf conditions on our predictions form to reflect the current conditions. It is important to change your selections during the racing day if the track condition changes. If turf racing is moved to the main track, simply choose OFF as the turf condition. You will then see our dirt selections for all turf races for the dirt track condition you have selected. Sometimes racing may come off the turf but one big turf stakes race will remain on the grass. In this case, first, you select the current turf condition. Then, go to each individual turf race and you can override the surface to Dirt for the races that came off. Simply leave the surface set to Turf for the turf races that remained on the grass.

Class Dropdowns

Another thing to watch for are horses that are dropping in class. Horses that are significantly dropping in class from their last race, are usually a threat.

To determine if a horse is going up or down in class, simply look at the very right of the horse’s section on our sheets. If you see a green down arrow, that means the horse is dropping in class. A red up arrow means moving up in class.

Medication Change

There are essentially two kinds of medication given to racehorses, Lasix and Bute. Bute is only legal at certain tracks (typically on the West Coast).

Any horse that is using Lasix for the first time will almost always improve. We indicate this on the tip sheet with a special icon.

On the other hand, Bute is very different. A horse either needs Bute to run well or can’t run at all with Bute. By looking at a horse’s past performances, you can tell if they run better with or without Bute. The medication column on the past performance is indicated by a ‘B’ if the horse was using Bute. If a horse runs well with Bute and now is off Bute (We use an icon to indicate this), the horse will typically run down and run a terrible race. However, if a horse has always run with Bute and didn’t do well, the horse may run a big race the first time running without Bute.

Jockey/Trainer Change

Many racing enthusiasts make the mistake of betting a particular jockey. It is true that jockeys may have significantly different winning percentages. However, these people do not realize that the most popular jockeys also get the best mounts. A jockey cannot make a horse run better than the horse’s natural ability. Conversely, a jockey can ruin a horse’s chance to win by giving the horse a bad ride. It is the case, however, that some jockeys “know” how to ride a particular horse better. By looking at the horse’s past performance matrix, you can see which jockeys typically rode the horse well.

Keep this in mind: If you give the best jockey the worst horse, he/she won’t hit the board. However, if you give the worst jockey the best horse, chances are he/she will hit the board and possibly even win the race.

There it is. – Do you “Want a shot at the title or a seat by the band?” – Winning Ponies can make all the difference in your wagering plans. We are proud of our record, and marquee days have Winning Ponies taking it to the next level as all runners are bringing their “A” game. – Best of luck and enjoy Breeders’ Cup weekend!