Beulah Bullets [Free Selections]

by Horstradamus

posted on February 8, 2010 in Free Picks and Tips | No Comments >>

It is time to play Tuesday. There are not many tracks going, and we get to play a little oval in Columbus, Ohio…

I like the play. The track offers value. It has the ability to pay off, and if you watch your P’s and Q’s, there may be a little jack in your wallet at the end of the day…

Race #3 – #1 – Cowboy Fury (3-1).

Dean Sarvis has the call for Dougie Cowans. They are winning at 23% and 34% respectively. As a team, they win 38% together. They are 1/1 at Beulah, and is second time off a layoff. This is a player’s angle. The last out with a win allows Cowans to roll back into the winner’s circle at a 28% rate. Heavily bet last out, and Cowans does well with this angle. Shipped in from Penn National, and running at Beulah has been a nice answer. The bullet work was a signal of good things to come, and the jock/trainer combo gives me confidence. 4/4 ITM, and comes off a win in the last two weeks.

Race #4 – #1 – Garden Dancer (3-1).

Yuri Yuranga in the irons at a 20% rate, and Woodard is rolling at 38%. Add them up, and they win at a 28% rate, and 63% ITM.  Horse for the course, going 4/6 at Beulah. Bobbled at the start in the last effort, and was a beaten favorite. The combo is 8/9 ITM over the last 14 days, and if both parts of the entry go forth, I think they will get a huge piece of the pie. Woodard has the ability to get win and place in here, and it would not surprise me at all. 3-1 is a square price, and go with confidence when Woodard saddles at Beulah.

Race #5 – #5 – S.R.Four Queens (2-1).

Dean Sarvis is up for Cowans, and as I said, they can get it done. Running off a 3rd time layoff angle. A filly for the course, 5/5 ITM at Beulah. Impressive speedster who has faced much tougher and has plenty of back class. Sarvis can flat out over-power, and has the ability to rule the roost if you let him. Anytime you see Cowans in a race, you can feel good about your wager.

Good luck!

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Lock ‘Em Up Saturday [Free Selections]

by Horstradamus

posted on February 5, 2010 in Free Picks and Tips | No Comments >>

I like free selections. Just so you know, win or lose, I put in quite a bit of time looking over the races and how to use them to max value. I love it when we both win, and hopefully we can knock ‘em a little bit at the end of the day.

With the weather around the country, I am hoping that Santa Anita does not get as much rain as expected. Here are a few that need a glance before making your final decisions.

Race #3 – #4 – Battle Of Hastings (5-2).

A very solid gelding that catches your eye. Tyler Baze has the call for Jeff Mullins.  They team up to win 29%, and 71% ITM. This gelding is 3/3 ITM at S.A, and has been away from the races for over two months. Mullins wins 20% with layoff runners, and he is dropping down from G-1 company. If the course has some give, I would look for him to come flying in the lane. Baze has ridden him, and knows this mount well. If all goes well, there should be no battle today.

Race #5 – #4 – Dreamt (4-1).

Garret Gomez has the call for Bill Mott. This is her second time racing in the U.S., and second time lasix with a cutback in distance. This filly is 4/9 ITM over the sod, and running in France may have prepped her well for this stake. Her sire, Oasis Dream, was a nice turf runner, and this may carry over to her as they make the downhill turn. I would look for Gomez to stalk just off the pace and pound when they cross the main course. You have to like the price.

Race #9 – #9 – Misremembered (8-5). The Strub Stakes G-2.

Victor Espinoza in the irons for Bob Baffert. They are winning 20% and 21% respectively. They also team up to win 20% and 50% ITM. He is 1/1 at Santa Anita, and 5/6 ITM on the all weather surface. Three off the layoff, and shows a nice bullet work to show readiness. 2/2 ITM at the distance, and that 7 panel race last out leaves you wanting more for this runner. This is the second race on the Pro-Ride off of the Churchill Downs oval. This son of Candy Ride has faced some very nice company, and I think his back class may be the factor for today. I would envision an up-close stalking trip, and after the pace falls apart down the lane, he will assert himself nicely.

As always, check these against the tier levels. I sometimes find myself reversing my moves and using my pick second, after seeing some important tips. Always be sure to check the track condition as Mother Nature is back to some tough love this weekend.

Good luck!

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Eddie A.

by Horstradamus

posted on February 5, 2010 in General Discussion | No Comments >>

His snout would be the first thing to enter the room as he was making his way in the door. I had the opportunity to meet the legend one time many moons ago, and it was one I will not forget.

Steve Cauthen and Eddie Arcaro were sitting at a table at Turfway Park signing autographs. I had to stand in line with all of the other fans, and it was time well spent.

This all came flooding back to me as I read an excerpt from “Hoof-beats from the Past.” This can be found in the bookshelf at Americanturf.com.

As I read, Eddie A. was talking about shaking hands and greeting patrons at Jamaica. A “not-so-hot” apprentice rider came up and shook his hand. Arcaro gave many words of encourage, and upon letting go of the young man’s hand, the lad found a $100 bill folded up nicely.

Arcaro knew the game. He said he never underestimated his competition, and always kept up on the best of the best and their habits. He believed that all great riders would know where everyone in the field should be laying as the race was unfolding. This was one of his many talents; just knowing where they were before he made his move.

His distinguished career spanned three decades, and he never led the standings. Seldom did he accept 1,000 mounts per year. This was especially the case for stakes races. In 1946, he finally broke the $1 million dollar purse earnings mark that year. He was selective, and this kept him fresh and riding the best.

It seemed like it just happened yesterday. There he was sitting next to “The Kid” and they were both decked out. Eddie had a smile that could light up the room. Very few knew just how sick this man was, and he never showed it. I was like a little kid as I had read about this man and his ability. I never saw him ride in person, but for the many out there that have, I am sure it was a racing pleasure. I walked away, and held my poster. I don’t know if the poster meant more, or if it was that I met a gentle legend. Either way, I was starstruck for the first time, and remember that evening fondly.

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Do Your Homework!

by Horstradamus

posted on February 5, 2010 in Handicapping, Help/Educational Articles | No Comments >>

Mom and Dad were right. Just do your homework and buckle down. It will payoff in the long run…

Most get complacent at times during the year. You need to have a few habits locked in to help your bottom line. Here are a few simple suggestions that will keep your accounts heading in the right direction.

1. Keep a log of all of your wagers, wins, losses, and daily totals. This will allow you to see your money in action, and keeping a simple log will allow you to redirect any short falls.

2. Focus on one or two tracks to wager. If you try anymore, you will start chasing your tail. Stick to your knitting!

3. Use a data service to supplement your handicapping. You will find this helps in keeping up to speed, and staying in the groove with your plays. WinningPonies is a great site, and I have seen them all. Easy to use, and is up to the latest minute by not putting out information 72 hours in advance, like some services. For the many players I have come across, most use a service to work with their handicapping.

4. Play hot rider / trainer combos. I would use 20% as a benchmark for this stat. They will win more than most, and have a proven team work plan.

5. Look for a change of equipment and a red-hot workout. A runner cannot change equipment off of a win. Sometimes you will see a horse run decent, and then comes the change up and hot work to show they are ready.

You need to keep these few tips handy before you make a wager.  You need to start back up strong for 2010. Sometimes we forget, and practicing strong habits can only make us stronger at the windows.

Good luck!

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Easy As 1-2-3…

by Horstradamus

posted on February 5, 2010 in General Discussion | No Comments >>

Scientific Games is at it again… They have a new wager out there that just may be a hit with players from all walks.

S.G. has an innovative idea with a bet that is part wager,  part contest, and all fun….

The concept is that players wager $2 on each entry. They have a selection of 6-8 races to wager. They will receive points for all of the win, place and show finishes they have. The payout is after the takeout, and goes out to the top players who finish in the top three.

The ticket can grow in cost depending on how many horses you would use in each race. Think of like a P-6, but you get points for your finish. The players can follow the progress on screen, and have a blast for a few bucks to win a hunk of dough.

The wager was originally developed by Racing World Technology, a U.K. based company that tried the wager as a promotional item in New Zealand. It was a hit, and now it has come our way.  R.W.T and S.G. have come together and will be bringing this wager to more outlets as the year opens up.

I think contest players will love this, and P-6 players will enjoy shooting a few bucks on the 1-2-3 Wager. This has to be one of the newest ideas that has caught my eye, so be on the lookout at your OTB or track near you. Let us know what you think…..

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Just Go Away

by Horstradamus

posted on February 5, 2010 in General Discussion | No Comments >>

Things just aren’t right. The old days where trainers took good care of horses, and owners cared about the sport, have veered a little left of the line.

Take Mike Gill. He has won an Eclipse Award, and taken down tons of money. He has won so many races that it is tough to count. He left racing a few years ago, claiming to hang it up for good. Sometimes the competitive side of all of us can call us into dark places.

Gill is driven to succeed. Maybe that is part of his professional side that he brought into racing. Take it to the limit, and do whatever possible to win. If you worked in any job, your boss would probably recognize this behavior as productive for the company. Mike Gill may have taken this just a little too far.

When you race horses and push them too hard, your results can be dangerous. There is a rider who is aboard that wants to do his job and go home. He or she doesn’t want to worry about runners they know are not fit. The horse in question may be two in front, or be right next to them and go down. There is the danger. The riders know it, and other trainers and owners know what is going on. No matter where you stable, they know about your practices with the company you keep. Gill has had some of the most plagued horsemen in his employ. People who need to clean up their act and just get away from the game.

I have read every article written. Gill wanted to run, sue, and complain about being singled out for doing wrong.  After all of the hullabaloo, he has decided to back off and quit. He has turned his runners in and wants out. He is tired, and after public outcry, he has recoiled back to his hole. Mike, that was the best thing for all in the game. This is not something that needs to follow you into your professional life. Just keep yourself out of the racing game completely.

This can be a story that just fades with time. Funny thing, time cures all wounds. Just stay out, and I think your life will find that balance again.

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Faces In The Crowd

by Horstradamus

posted on February 1, 2010 in General Discussion | No Comments >>

Each day, we see many faces during the course of a day at the races. Some you will see everyday in the same places, and some are those you work with. There are the occasional visitors that walk in every so often, and they either become a face or drift into the distance.

Many I have known for years. We started out as passing in the silence; to knowing all about each others families. That is the way at the oval. There are many that love the game, and there are even more that do not know there is a little fraternity of sorts that gathers each day. They root, cheer, and commiserate. That is a day at the races.

I like the group of guys who make it out hell or high water. A few of them are past bookies, and one of them still is. They talk about who they like, and complain about losing with a smile. It is their place, and you can throw a dart and hit them every day in the dark. They will be there until you suddenly see none of them there, one day. The next day, you will see all but one sitting in their corner or area.  Only the people closest will know one is gone. They keep a tradition going because that is what they do. I have seen casinos, contests, and everything in between. But there is nothing like the friends you meet at the track. They will be there until the end.

As you walk in, many have made the track their job. They have greeted you over the years and you have seen them grow old, get fat, retire, and disappear. They too have played their role. They have served you well, and have appreciated you more than you know. It was the group of ladies that come out each weekend, or the gents who come out for the dollar beers, or even the children that accompany their parents to watch the ponies.  They have watched right back at the people who come and go. Oh, the stories they could tell…. The tips that a valet fella made one night, or how a patron split a winning ticket with a seller that paid over $10,000. I have never seen a place where two different groups of people converge for similar reasons.

If you haven’t been out for a day at the races, make it a point to do so. If you have been going for years, then take another friend who has never been. You will never see another crowd like this one. Old, young, and in-between, sharing the day and the game that they love. The pageantry of the horses has always been spectacular, but the faces in the crowd have always fascinated me.

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Monday, Monday… [Free Selections]

by Horstradamus

posted on January 31, 2010 in Free Picks and Tips | 1 Comment >>

The Monday card has made the year for a track like Beulah. Being one of the only tracks running, it has made a nice handle run. But, it does offer some nice action at the beginning of the week.

Race #2 – #5 Sinus Rhythm (5-2).

Edgar Paucar is in the saddle for David Ashcraft. They are winning 21%, and 20% respectively. Not a bad deal of action in Columbus. 1/1 at Beulah, and is dropping into conditioned company. The drop at Beulah can make all of the difference in the world. Paucar can get the job done on a three-legged donkey. Makes the move from poly track at Turfway, and if you go back two races ago, you will see a win in his name. I think they are spotting their horses right, and today should be no change in action.

Race #4 – #2 – Hail Victory (15-1).

Octavio Reyes is up for Cenaro Garcia. 1/1 at Beulah is a nice start. Goes from 1 mile to 1 1/16th on the main. Go back three times in his history, and you will see he shipped in from Chicago. That has been the route where more winners have been found the next effort out. He grabbed his win, and then went off to poly track land. This is a speedy gelding and can be tough to reel in if he gets loose. If he does, you will get handsomely rewarded. That part is what you are seeking, and if you go this route, you will want to hook this price up with other predictions.

Race #5 – #5 – Kulka (5-2).

Yuri Yuranga for Joe Woodard. They should call these guys the “cash machine” as they win at a 25% clip. Last out was at Turfway, and now finds himself in lesser company. Woodard knows his game, and Yuranga is his man in the North. He rides Rex Stokes in Kentucky, and they all make a nice team. Ohio looks to fit this mare much better, and she should stand up and be counted today. The middle move last out shows me she is on the right path. I like the combo, and the teamwork is great.

Get yourself some Beulah. This little oval can surprise you and give you some nice early week action.

Best of luck!

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Last Day Specials [Free Selections]

by Horstradamus

posted on January 31, 2010 in Free Picks and Tips | 1 Comment >>

Isn’t it hard to believe it is the last of the month already? Have you quit your resolution yet? Are you looking towards the Derby? Have you started making your charts yet? My answers are simple, they are all YES……

Well, let us leave the month with hopes for the spring, and a great day to end the beginning month for 2010. We shall head back to New York where racing will resume.

Race #5 – #2 Raffie’s Dear (7-5).

After that little four plus month vacation, this gelding looks in swing. C.C. Lopez for Steve Asmussen should make the board light up. Going from a sprint to a route, Asmussen wins at a 21% clip. Two races back had a bad spill under Ramon Dominguez.  Going two turns may be refreshing, and can make the race for this guy. I hope the price gets better, and you will want to examine all tier levels to zero in on price plays.

Race #8 – #1 Nite Light (8-5).

Dominguez has the call for Pletcher, and they make a dangerous combo. He was rating very nicely and the rider lost the stick down the lane. This can be the difference between winning and losing. In my opinion, it cost him the race. Exits as a beaten favorite, and this angle yields Pletcher a 28% winner right back. He is 3/3 at The Big “A,” and is making a second start off a break. I like the speed from the rail routine, and you can bet your boots Dominguez will hang on to the whip at the wire. Catch him if you can…..

Race #9 – #10 Authentic Shot (9-5).

Early speed under the handling of the red-hot bug rider. Angel Serpa will make his mark in due time, and trainer David Duggan gives the green light after making the second start off a break. The #11 hole last out did not hurt his chances, and I think the post will not be a factor in here. Second time off a layoff, this barn wins 15%. I would like to find a nice tier level runner that I can pair up a superfecta. This may be the answer as New York gets back in the swing of things. The weather, the abbreviated schedule, and the way the year is flying away. I would look for a score anywhere you can get it.

The prices may not be all-out barn burners. But, I can put down some 40-1 plays that will still be running a week later. I would use these involved with others from your data, and have a walk off January. So take them, and make hay while you can.

Best of luck!

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Running Round In Circles

by Horstradamus

posted on January 31, 2010 in General Discussion | No Comments >>

The night is cold. It is only 15 degrees and the wind chill is 5…. It is windy, and the sky is darkening from snow on the way. Most have gone home for dinner, to watch the big game, or play with the kids. For some, it is time to get to work.

The next time I hear a player yell at a rider, or curse the daylights out of some bug-boy, we are going to take them to the jocks room to saddle up… They can wear the silks that John Candy wore in that movie when he came into the paddock to mount up a talking horse… That should shut up the tough guys.

Here are a few of the good folks that I have spoke to on an average day. All names will be held back except one. His name is Justin Vitek. He just left our world the other day to ride legendary horses in heaven. He had leukemia, and passed away at the young age of 26-years-old. The riders all knew him, and just last Valentine’s Day, he rode a mount at Turfway Park. He was tough, kindhearted, and will be missed; most of all by his daughter Bree…

The room was warm as the riders played pool, and watched TV… I spoke to a man wh0 is young and cannot speak but 8-10 words of English. He kept calling me “papi.” He was tough and hard, and ready to brave the cold in a crowded jocks room, where mounts are tough. He is on top of his game, and his future looks bright. Trust me, you’ll hear his name someday when he wins the Derby. By then, he will speak better English.

In the corner, smoking a cigar, was an older rider who is a fixture on the circuit. I don’t think they could open the doors without him. It just wouldn’t be the same. I guess I am showing my age, as I start remembering more riders who have hung it up and watch new faces hang their tack. He wins enough to live a comfortable life. Each year, he wins a few less.  He will battle the cold and ride two mounts. “Tough game. I remember when things were better.” So do I, and he was that young guy in the corner as tough as they come.

There is an older rider who walks around the room. He doesn’t have any mounts, and the track pays him two mount fees to stay the card in case nobody wants to pick up that old mount in the last. They call this position “The House-Jock.”  He is optimistic all of the time, as he buys candy for all of the riders. He buys every rider a gift at Christmas, and for any auction that benefits a disabled rider, he donates art, and other racing memories. He is the greatest. His voice is scratchy from smoking two packs a day for thirty years. I asked him how he was doing, and he told me things weren’t so good… This guy wouldn’t complain if an elephant were sitting on his chest. I knew that things were bad. I asked him if he wanted to grab a bite, and he changed the subject quickly to how good things will be next week. Some people just brighten up the darkness just by being in the room. I listened, and smiled, and wished him all of the luck in the world… As I walked out, I saw him sit down and light up a smoke in a far away corner. It looked as if he couldn’t get far enough away. I sure hope he gets a mount tonight.

On the way out, I saw another young gun ready for the post call in the cold. “What’s up my man? He just said I am just running around in circles dude.” Thank God for that, huh?

The bell rang, and I watched many riders walking toward the door with lightweight silks on. I had a big coat and could feel the cold to my bones. But this is what they do. Some call it work, and others just run around in circles.

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