Luck Pick Six on Sunshine Millions Day

by Horstradamus

posted on January 26, 2012 in Horse Racing, News, Other Events | No Comments >>

Now entering its 10th year, the Sunshine Millions series of stakes races is trying out a new format.  This series of six races was originally meant to be a showdown between California and Florida bred horses with the races split between Santa Anita Park and Gulfstream Park.  While the first few runnings of the Sunshine Millions program generated much interest – it became clear over time that the Florida bred horses were simply far superior to their competition on the West Coast.  The fact that Florida has a more established breeding industry and the experimentation with synthetic surfaces in California simply didn’t provide a fertile ground for even competition.

On Saturday, January 28th the new Sunshine Millions format features six stakes races all for Florida bred horses at Gulfstream Park.  The headline event will be the Florida Sunshine Millions Classic with a $400,000 purse to be run at 1 1/8 miles for 4-year-olds and up.  Combined with the five other supporting stakes for other divisions and the total purse money given away on this big race day will be at $1.3 million.

HBO Luck Dustin Hoffman

In connection with the new Sunshine Millions program and the upcoming premiere of the HBO horse racing drama Luck starring Dustin Hoffman, a special “Luck Pick Six” will be offered with a $1 minimum bet.  Besides the fact that the Luck Pick Six will be packing in a huge amount of action in just over an hour of racing, two other reasons to give this bet a try are the fact that there is a $250,000 guaranteed minimum pool and a mandatory payout meaning even players who go 5 for 6 in the sequence could be in for a nice payday if nobody picks all six races correctly.

Post Time  Track Name of Race  Distance
 4:10 ET Gulfstream  Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf  1 1/8 miles (T)
 4:35 ET Santa Anita  Sensational Star  6 1/2 furlongs (T)
 4:50 ET Gulfstream  Sunshine Millions Turf  1 1/8 miles (T)
 5:05 ET Santa Anita  Crystal Water  1 1/16 miles
 5:25 ET Gulfstream  Sunshine Millions Classic  1 1/8 miles
 5:37 ET Santa Anita  Valentine Dancer  1 mile (T)

 

The one horse that most players will be singling in this sequence is Caracortado who has been assigned morning line odds of 4-5 for the Sensational Star Stakes – a 6 ½ furlong dash at Santa Anita going down the hill.  If you can beat the favorite in this race you’ll be set up for a big payday as many tickets will be wiped out if Caracortado doesn’t win.  Other options for the Sensational Star include Ain’t No Other, who got up for the show spot in the Morvich Stakes (G3) two starts prior, and Compari who picks up a new jockey in Mike Smith and is a reasonable 5-2 on the morning line.

The highlight of the Luck Pick Six is of course the Sunshine Millions Classic for older horses going 1 1/8 of a mile at Gulfstream Park.  The likely post time favorite will be Mucho Macho Man who finished third behind Animal Kingdom in the 2011 Kentucky Derby.  This well built 4-year-old horse also showed up for the Preakness and Belmont but failed to be much of a factor in those races finishing sixth and seventh respectively. He comes into this race in good form after winning the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the Fair Grounds.  Another likely contender will be the venerable Duke of Mischief from the barn of David Fawkes.  This 6-year-old has a ton of stakes experience and finished 2nd in the Sunshine Millions last year, so don’t leave him off your tickets.

For expert picks for all of the races on Saturday, January 28th at Gulfstream and Santa Anita simply download the corresponding Winning Ponies’ E-Z Win™ Forms.  Also don’t forget to tune into the new HBO series Luck which premieres the next day for some great horse racing drama.

Melikov’s Horses to Watch, Jan 2012, cont.

by Greg Melikov

posted on January 24, 2012 in Free Picks and Tips, Handicapping, Horse Racing, WinningPonies.com | No Comments >>

Horses worth watching, a list of runners compiled by handicapper/turf writer Greg Melikov, should do well next time out. These thoroughbreds won nine times, finished second once and ran third five times since Dec. 3. They’re worth considering when developing your wagering strategy for online betting or at your favorite track.

ChecklistAQUEDUCT

Reserved Quality: Broke sixth and last, raced six lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile and rallied in stretch to gain second by 3 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on Jan. 16.

Law Enforcement: Broke seventh and last, trailed by more than 4 ½ lengths after a half-mile, closed fast from fourth in stretch to make up three lengths and gained second by three-quarters of a length at six furlongs on the inner track Dec. 4.

Coaltown Legend: Raced 8 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile and rallied a bit in stretch to finish third by 5 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on Dec. 30. (Raced sixth early, dropped to seventh 5 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile and rallied from sixth in stretch to gain third by a half-length at six furlongs on Jan. 15.)

DELTA DOWNS

Storm Or Two: Dueled early for lead, gained a clear margin entering turn, led by two lengths after three-eighths of a mile, drew off in stretch and won easily by 6 ¼ lengths at five furlongs on Jan. 18.

Bianamazed: Raced 10th and last more than 9 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied three wide from fourth in stretch, made up three lengths and finished third by three lengths at a mile on a sealed muddied surface Dec. 22.

Crème de Cacoa: Raced more than 7 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, rallied four wide on far turn, closed fast from fifth in stretch to make up more than three lengths and finished second, beaten a head at 6 ½ furlongs on Dec. 7. (Raced five lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, inches up to take command in backstretch, drew off by seven lengths in stretch and won ridden out by 9 ½ lengths at 7 ½ furlongs on a sealed muddy surface Jan. 7.)

FAIR GROUNDS

Little Pinkie: Raced fourth early, dropped to fifth 3 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, brushed with rival at quarter pole, rallied outside from fourth in stretch to make up more than 1 ½ lengths and finished second, beaten a nose at a mile and 70 yards on Jan. 18.

Vigilante Law: Raced third early, dropped to fourth more than 6 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, closed well to make up more than 2 ¼ lengths in stretch and finished second, beaten three-quarters of a length at a mile and 70 yards on Jan. 8.

GOLDEN GATE FIELDS

Double Episode: Difficult to load, raced eighth and last more than nine lengths behind after a half-mile, altered course inside for drive, rallied from sixth in stretch to make up 5 ½ lengths and gained second by a head at a mile on Jan. 16.

Curly Boy: Raced 6 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, checked nearing quarter pole, dropped to fifth after six furlongs, rallied from fourth in stretch to make up five lengths and finished second, beaten a head at a mile on a good turf course Dec. 26. (Tracked pace two lengths behind in third after a half-mile, came three wide into stretch and rallied determinedly to win by three-quarters of a length at a mile on Jan. 16; returned $21.40 on front end.)

GULFSTREAM PARK

Clip the Coupons: Hit gate at break, raced 12 ½ lengths behind in 10th after three-eighths of a mile, angled wide at top of stretch, closed fast from seventh to make up 5 ½ lengths and finished second, full of run, beaten a length at five furlongs on the turf Jan. 16.

Mr. Haywood: Broke a bit slowly from the outside 12th post, raced more than seven lengths behind in 10th after a half-mile, closed fast from ninth in stretch, made up more than four lengths and gained third by a head at 6 ½ furlongs on Dec. 26.

M’Dearest: Raced more than 7 ½ lengths behind in ninth after a half-mile, closed fast from seventh in stretch to make up more than 4 ½ lengths and finished third, beaten a head and three-quarters of a length at about a mile on the turf Dec. 28 at Tampa Bay Downs. (Raced 2 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, rallied four wide to challenge inside eighth pole and finished third, beaten a head and a nose at 1 1/8 miles on the turf Jan. 22.)

Minister Colin: Broke 10th and last, advanced to sixth more than three lengths behind after six furlongs and rallied from third to win by 3 ¾ lengths at a mile on the turf Jan. 2. (Raced more than eight lengths behind in eighth after a mile, came around rival in stretch, changed course to rail, rallied to make up more than two lengths and won by a nose at 1 ½ miles on the turf Jan. 21; returned $10.20 on front end.)

HAWTHORNE

Better Make Money: Hopped at break, raced more than 9 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, rallied from fifth in stretch to make up four lengths and finished second, beaten a half-length at 6 ½ furlongs on Dec. 23.

Kind Regards: Raced 5 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, shifted out in stretch losing ground to fifth and rallied to finish second by 3 ¾ lengths at 6 ½ furlongs on Dec. 9. (Dueled with leader a half-length behind after a half-mile, edged forward in stretch and won by a length at six furlongs on a sloppy surface Dec. 30.)

Diva’s Diamond: Raced more than 7 ½ lengths behind in ninth after a half-mile and rallied a bit from fourth in stretch to finish third by six lengths at 1 1/16 miles on Nov. 19. (Raced more than seven lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, carried out by pacesetter while rallying in stretch and dead-heated for second at 1 1/16 miles on Dec. 3.)

LAUREL PARK

Cooper River: Raced more than 3 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, checked behind a wall of horses in stretch, angled out four wide, closed gamely to make up more than two lengths and finished second, beaten a half-length at six furlongs on Jan. 19.

Muscadine: Broke eighth and last, advanced to seventh 8 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, swung out for drive, rallied from sixth to make up more than four lengths in stretch and finished second, beaten a nose at six furlongs on Dec. 22 at Penn National. (Raced nine lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, rallied wide leave turn and finished third by 3 ½ lengths at six furlongs on a muddy surface Jan. 12.)

Mystical Terp: Raced six lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, drifted out in mid-stretch and finished third by a length at six furlongs on Dec. 3. (Broke a step slow, raced 6 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, slipped through in mid-stretch and finished third by 6 ¾ lengths at six furlongs on a good surface Jan. 12.)

Unbridled Pride: Tracked pace three lengths behind in third after a half-mile, closed in stretch to pass pacesetter and won by three-quarters of a length at six furlongs on Dec. 10; returned $25 on front end. (Raced more than three lengths behind in fourth after three-eighths of a mile, gained lead in stretch and won by 1 ¼ lengths at 5 ½ furlongs on Jan. 6.)

OAKLAWN PARK

Byrd William: Pressed pace a length behind in second after a half-mile, shuffled back along rail on far turn, roused for the drive, rallied from fourth in stretch to make up more than 3 ½ lengths and finished second, beaten a half-length at 1 1/16 miles on Jan. 16.

PARX (PHILADELPHIA PARK)

Mi Preciosa: Raced more than 3 ½ lengths behind in seventh after three-eighths of a mile, split rivals on turn, eased out for drive, closed from third in stretch to make up four lengths and finished second, beaten a neck at 5 ½ furlongs on Jan. 16.

Chief Thundercloud: Tracked pace more than a length behind in sixth after a half-mile, checked in traffic on turn and rallied gamely in stretch to gain third by a neck, beaten a head for place at 6 ½ furlongs on Jan. 7.

Reason to Drink: Broke alertly from inside post, led by 1 ½ lengths off rail and won by a length at six furlongs on Nov. 26; returned $14.20 on front end. (Pressed pace a head behind in second after a half-mile, edged clear by two lengths in mid-stretch and won by a half-length under steady handling at six furlongs on Dec. 18; returned $24.60 on front end.)

SANTA ANITA PARK

Adam Suances: Raced 9 ½ lengths behind eighth and last after a half-mile, swung out four wide exiting turn, closed stoutly even wider in stretch to make up more than 3 ¾ lengths and gained second by a neck at 6 ½ furlongs on Jan. 16; ran final 1 ½ furlongs in 29 4/5.

Starspangled Heat: Raced ninth more than eight lengths behind after a half-mile, came four wide into stretch, rallied from sixth making up more than 4 ½ lengths and finished third, beaten a half-length and a nose at 6 ½ furlongs on the turf Dec. 29. (Raced fifth early, dropped to sixth 6 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, advanced to third in stretch, but couldn’t close gap and finished in that position by 7 ¼ lengths at a mile taken off the turf Jan. 21. )

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

Guam Typhoon: Stalked pace two lengths behind in third after a half-mile, took command in stretch and drew off ridden out to win by 3 ¾ lengths, covering the seven furlongs in 1:22 3/5 on Jan. 18.

Pack Attack: Raced third early, dropped to fourth three lengths behind after a half-mile and rallied in stretch to gain second by a head at six furlongs on Dec. 16. (Raced fifth early, dropped to sixth more than seven lengths after a half-mile, split rivals on turn, rallied in stretch to run down pacesetter and won by three-quarters of a length at six furlongs on Jan. 13.)

TURF PARADISE

Shemya Reef: Raced 5 ½ lengths behind in seventh after three-eighths of a mile, went five wide leaving turn, closed well from fifth to make up more than 2 ½ lengths in stretch and finished second, beaten a length at 5 ½ furlongs on Jan. 18.

Complete Rule: Went right to the front, led by two lengths after a half-mile, drew off in stretch and won by 10 ¾ lengths ridden out at 6 ½ furlongs on Dec. 23. (Pressed pace a half-length behind in second after three-eighths of a mile, grabbed lead in stretch by a half-length and drew off to win by 8 ¼ lengths at 5 ½ furlongs on Jan. 16.)

TURFWAY PARK

Time to Getit: Raced more than four lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, closed well four wide from fourth to make up five lengths in stretch and gained second by a head at six furlongs on Jan. 19.

Justifiably Salty: Pressed pace early in second, shuffled back to sixth more than 3 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, swung to outside in stretch and rallied to finish second, beaten a head at 6 ½ furlongs on Dec. 17. (Raced third early, dropped to fourth more than two lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied four wide in stretch and won by a neck at six furlongs on Jan. 13.)

Holy Bull Features BC Juvenile Winner Hansen

by Greg Melikov

posted on January 24, 2012 in General Discussion, Kentucky Derby, News, Other Events | No Comments >>

Hansen, who has been training in South Florida since late last year, will attempt to become only the second Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion to capture the Run for the Roses.

Street Sense, the 2006 BC Juvenile champ that won the ’07 Kentucky Derby, began his sophomore season with a victory in the Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Hansen is setting his sights on the Holy Bull Stakes next Sunday. He’s seeking his fourth consecutive triumph.

Hansen Wins the 2011 Breeders' Cup JuvenileThe last Holy Bull winner to smell the roses was the ill-fated Barbaro, who lost his nearly year-long battle for life after coming up injured in the ’06 Preakness.

Hansen debuted last fall at Turfway Park, breaking his maiden in a sprint. After posting a blowout victory at 1 1/16 miles in the Kentucky Club Juvenile, the son of Tapit won the BC Juvenile at the same distance in Louisville.

The colt led at every call, defeating the favored Union Rags by a head. That gritty victory at Churchill Downs resulted in the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male.

Hansen has worked three times this year at Gulfstream, last breezing five furlongs in :59 4/5 on a fast surface Sunday.

He’s among more than 50 nominations for the one-turn one-mile contest with a purse of $400,000.

The field is likely to include Fort Loudon, who swept last year’s Florida Stallion Stakes for 2-year-old males at Calder Race Course, but finished seventh behind Hansen in the Juvenile. The son of Awesome of Course breezed five furlongs in 1:01 4/5 Friday at that South Florida track.

Expected runners Algorithms and Consortium finished one-two on Dec. 16 in an allowance contest. Both colts by ’06 Preakness winner Bernardini, made their second career start after impressive debut victories earlier in New York.

Algorithms wore down the favored Consortium in deep stretch for the length victory at 6 ½ furlongs.

Consortium breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 at Palm Meadows on Saturday.

Others that may go are My Adonis and Tiger Walk, each with two triumphs, with both scoring at a mile.

Union Rags, meanwhile, will run in the Fountain of Youth on Feb. 26. The son of Dixie Union has been training at Palm Meadows, an hour up the road from Gulfstream. On Jan. 18, he breezed four furlongs in :49 3/5.

Hansen is a homebred for Dr. Kendall Hansen, a pain management specialist who gave away the colt’s dam, only to buy her back when trainer Mike Maker told him the horse was showing plenty of potential in his training.

After a brief break from competition, Hansen was shipped to Maker’s barn at Gulfstream.

Dr. Hansen, a onetime horseplayer based at Turfway, has indicated he’d like the colt to return to the northern Kentucky track for the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes in late March.

One of the traditional preps for the Florida Derby was renamed in ’96 for the great Holy Bull and has been staged at several distances since Home at Last won the inaugural in ’90 at 1 1/8 miles. This is the 23rd renewal.

Last season, Dialed In won off an impressive maiden victory at Churchill Downs. He also captured the Florida Derby.

LeComte Stakes at Fair Grounds Preview and Picks

On Saturday, June 21 a highly competitive race for up and coming 3-year-old horses can be found at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans.  The LeComte Stakes (G3) run at one mile and 70 yards on the dirt is a chance for these talented sophomores to earn some graded stakes money and for their connections to find out if they have what it takes to work towards the Triple Crown. The $175,000 purse (recently raised from $100,000) has lured no less than 13 starters who all have a good chance to win or hit the board. Horses who run well in the LeComte can look forward to the $300,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) on February 25, and if they have the talent the $1 million Louisiana Derby on April 1.  Other options for horses exiting the LeComte are stakes at Tampa Bay Downs and Oaklawn Park – both good places for Derby prospects to show their stuff.

Fairgrounds Horse Racing

The following is a quick glance at some of the horses likely to attract attention and money on race day.

2           Ted’s Folly

This horse, bred in Oklahoma is coming off a six-race win streak including his most recent win in the $300,000 Springboard Mile.  While some of those races were only won by a neck Ted’s Folly won’t fold in the stretch run.  He has yet to run at over 1 mile, but the extra 70 yards don’t look like too much o a hurdle for this talented horse.

 

3           Mr. Bowling

Won at this distance in October at Delaware Park in the Dover Stakes, and then came back to hit the board in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs.  Mr. Bowling is trained by Larry Jones, who won the LeComte with 2nd place Derby finisher Hard Spun in 2007 and Friesian Fire in 2009.  Mr. Bowling broke his maiden in a field of 12 so handling this crowd should be a task he can handle.  Also, his last three works have been bullet or near bullet moves – another encouraging sign.

4           Exfactor

Exfactor is come into the LeComte with three straight win under his belt including a win in the Bashford Manor Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs.  The main question for Exfactor, who seems to be a very capable colt is the distance.  At one mile and 70 yards, the LeComte will be his first start over six fulongs.

7           Seven Lively Sins

Beat out Mr. Bowling for the place position in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs by nearly 4 lengths, but disappointed in the Delta Jackpot finishing 4th eight lengths off the leader.  Another warning sign is that Seven Lively Sins only has one win over the Poly at Keeneland and has not yet proven himself on dirt.  Consider others if his price is too short.

13         Shared Property

Shared Property is the only horse in the field that has Grade 1 experience even if it was in a sixth place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland.  However, the cut back in distance here represents and opportunity for him to redeem himself.  Though Shared Property is breaking from the far outside post #13 he has won in fields of 12 and 13 at Ellis Park and Arlington.  Trainer Tom Amos is having a great season at Fair Grounds with 24% winners from 71 starts – so don’t leave this one off your tickets.

The LeComte Stakes will go off as the 11th race on the card at the Fairgrounds with an approximate post time of 4:55pm.  Winning Ponies will be providing full coverage of every race at Fair Grounds on Saturday in addition to other great tracks around the US and Canada.

Speed-Favoring Gulfstream Remains Rapid as Ever

by Greg Melikov

posted on January 19, 2012 in General Discussion, Handicapping, Horse Racing, WinningPonies.com | No Comments >>

Gulfstream ParkSpeed bias horseplayers must be thrilled Gulfstream Park’s main track is playing as true as ever six weeks into the 2011-12 meeting that began a month earlier than usual.

Of the first 53 races at six furlongs through Jan. 15, wire-to-wire winners were 30 percent, according to Brisnet.com. Last season, 27 percent of the 45 horses victorious at that distance scored on the front end.

In 50 contests at a mile on the main track from Dec. 3 through Jan. 15, Brisnet.com reported, 16 percent of the winners led at every call. That’s slightly lower than the previous Gulfstream meeting that ended last April when 20 percent of the first 50 triumphant thoroughbreds won gate to wire.

There has been a continuing argument through the years about the lovely South Florida facility and whether a speed bias really exists. Well, I know it has since the mid-90s because I’ve studied the figures.

Some trainers have claimed the main dirt surface has been souped up to favor frontrunners. Souped up? Naw! The main track has been refurbished and expanded in recent times, but has always favored speedsters, especially in sprints and short routes over the long haul.

Back in ’09 horses that led all the way at six furlongs captured 35 percent of the 112 races. That was after the main track was renovated in ’05, when frontrunners won 38 percent at six furlongs compared to 36 percent the previous year.

For a brief span, the renovated main course played a bit differently during the early portion of the ’05 meeting after the surface was redone and the track was enlarged to 1 1/8 miles.

But by the first week in February, pacesetters still won 30 percent of 50 races at six furlongs while the average was lower in other sprints.

Gulfstream’s main track until then was comprised of 85½ percent sand and 14½ percent clay, with a 3 ¾-inch sandy cushion. However, the cushion that was once supported by a 3-inch sand/clay pad was replaced with a 7-inch pad of the same material. And the once 10-inch clay/silt/sand base on top of a 6-inch lime rock/sand mixture was switched to a 12-inch sand base on top of 8 inches of road rock.

Don’t get me wrong, speed bias can change from race to race or week to week. For example, 23 horses that won at 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream from Dec. 3 through Jan. 8 went all the way 23 percent. However, through Jan. 15 the wire jobs jumped to 35 percent in 17 races at the distance.

Longer dirt races over the years have usually gone to runners coming off the pace.

In ’05, front-runners at 1 1/8 miles won 29 percent of 65 races. However, only 14 percent of 42 winners led all the way in ’06.

Hansen Wins Top Juvenile Honors

by Horstradamus

posted on January 18, 2012 in Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby, News, WinningPonies.com | No Comments >>

For those that thought the voting for the champion 2-year-old male of 2011 was going to be a close call between Hansen and Union Rags there was no photo finish for this Eclipse Award.  In the end it was a blowout with Hansen receiving 194 first-place votes to only 52 for Union Rags.  Now Hansen has even more to live up to for his legions of fans – some of whom are simply enamored with his spectacular presence and stunning nearly white coat.Hansen Horse

Hansen won over the Eclipse voting crowd not only with his spectacular 3 for 3 record as a 2-year-old but for how he won his races and where he came from.  His first two wins came at Turfway Park, hardly a place where future Breeders’ Cup champions are in training.  While Hansen certainly had enormous winning margins in his first two races at Turfway, nobody really knew how he’d stand up to Grade 1 winners like Union Rags in the Breeders’ Cup.  In addition to facing much tougher competition he also needed to make a successful switch from synthetic to dirt – passing this test with flying colors.

So, what has Hansen been up to besides making a splash at the 2011 Eclipse Awards?  He’s been hanging out at Gulfstream Park getting ready for the Holy Bull, a Grade 3 race and time tested path to the Kentucky Derby via the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby later in the season.

Over the past 30 days he’s been working out once a week, over the main track at Gulfstream showing that he’s healthy and ready to run again.  While his works aren’t particularly fast – the important thing to look at post Breeders’ Cup is the form of the horse especially after such a brutal race over 1 1/16 miles for still developing 2-year-old horses.

Other horses that have been nominated for the Holy Bull and are likely to start include Algorithms, Consortium, Fort Loudon, and My Adonis.  The Holy Bull will be run on January 29, and while Hansen will be the overwhelming favorite if he makes it to post – there will still be plenty of value in the talented field that shows up for this race with all contenders looking to make it to the Kentucky Derby.

Santa Anita $107,326 Pick Six Carryover Free Picks

by Horstradamus

posted on January 18, 2012 in Free Picks and Tips, Horse Racing, News, WinningPonies.com | No Comments >>

On Thursday, January 19 bettors looking for a big payday should focus on the pick-6 carryover at Santa Anita Park worth $107,326.  While this isn’t the biggest carryover in the world, it will still attract plenty of new money pumping up the pool to at least half a million dollars.  Another great thing about this upcoming pick-6 sequence is that there are some good key races to focus on with small to mid-sized fields.  The first two races in the pick-6 have six horses each, followed by fields of 8, 11, 8, and 10.  That brings the total amount of possible combinations to just over a quarter million before scratches.  These incredible odds are why the pick-6 remains the most lucrative bet in all of horse racing.

Santa Anita Park LogoThe pick-6 action will start with the third race, a $16,000 claimer for 3-year-old fillies over six furlongs.  While this is a compact field of six it is a very evenly matched field – so be careful not to go too thin on your selections in this race.  Top contenders in the opening of the pick-6 sequence are I Sense Your Luck, who got up for place in a $20k claiming race last month, and is taking a small class drop.  Purple Starduster is likely to be favored after being claimed for $25,000 on December 8, but you have to question this horse’s form when its connections are now willing to give her away for $16,000 just 7 weeks later.

For those looking for a logical single on their pick-6 ticket explore using Subpoena the Dress in the sixth race.  This 6-year-old mare has been claimed in no less than four of her last five races winning three of them.  Now she’s taking a small step up after winning a $12,500 claiming race just 2 weeks ago.  This short six furlong dash suits her front running style with a clean trip.  Because the sixth race has 11 entrants singling in this race will be a bit nerve wracking but will keep your ticket price down.

In the eighth race Meltarib and Sunburn are likely to be co-favorites at post time after finishing second and third at Hollywood Park in December.  Meltarib may have the edge as his form looks to be strong after finishing second on the turf at Santa Anita on January 7.

Now that you have some ideas for half of the pick-6 at Santa Anita on January 19, take a look at Winning Ponies industry-leading E-Z Win™ Form for the rest of the day’s races.  While the pick-6 is not an easy bet to hit Winning Ponies has a proven track record of helping people win life changing jackpots. On March 11, 2011 Winning Ponies had one of its biggest scores ever by taking down a $100,085 pick-6 at Santa Anita.  This Winning Ponies advantage is an edge thousands of players have used to become more profitable horseplayers.

Melikov’s Horses to Watch, Jan 2012

by Greg Melikov

posted on January 10, 2012 in Free Picks and Tips, Handicapping, Horse Racing, WinningPonies.com | No Comments >>

BinocularsHorses worth watching, a list of runners compiled by handicapper/turf writer Greg Melikov, should do well next time out. These thoroughbreds won seven times, finished second five times and ran third twice since Nov. 19. They’re worth considering when developing your wagering strategy for online betting or at your favorite track.

AQUEDUCT

Make Note: Raced seventh early, dropped to eighth 7 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, swung five wide for drive, rallied in stretch to make up more than 7 ¼ lengths and finished third, beaten a head and a neck at a mile and 70 yards on the good inner track Dec. 28.

Law Enforcement: Broke seventh and last, trailed by more than 4 ½ lengths after a half-mile, closed fast from fourth in stretch to make up three lengths and gained second by three-quarters of a length at six furlongs on the inner track Dec. 4.

Coaltown Legend: Raced eighth and last early, advanced to seventh more than 10 lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied to make up 6 ½ lengths in stretch and gained second by a neck at six furlongs on Nov. 20; ran final quarter in 22 4/5. (Raced 8 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile and rallied a bit in stretch to finish third by 5 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on Dec. 30.)

Gambling Geraldine: Raced more than 3 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, guided four wide for clearance entering stretch and gained third, beaten a nose and a half-length at six furlongs on Nov. 9; ran final quarter in 24 2/5.

DELTA DOWNS

Bianamazed: Raced 10th and last more than 9 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied three wide from fourth in stretch, made up three lengths and finished third by three lengths at a mile on a sealed muddied surface Dec. 22.

Crème de Cacoa: Raced more than 7 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, rallied four wide on far turn, closed fast from fifth in stretch to make up more than three lengths and finished second, beaten a head at 6 ½ furlongs on Dec. 7. (Raced five lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, inches up to take command in backstretch, drew off by seven lengths in stretch and won ridden out by 9 ½ lengths at 7 ½ furlongs on a sealed muddy surface Jan. 7.)

Classic Robbery: Raced more than 3 ½ lengths behind in eighth after three-eighths of a mile, rallied from fourth five wide in the stretch to make up nearly 2 ½ lengths and finished second, beaten a neck at five furlongs on a sealed muddy surface Nov. 22.

Nacho Business: Stalked pace a length and a head behind in third after a half-mile, took command in stretch by three lengths and won in hand by 7 ¾ lengths at 1 1/16 miles on Sept. 25 at Monmouth Park. (Stalked pace a length and two heads behind in fourth after a half-mile, slipped through inside to gain lead by a length in upper stretch and drew off to win by 7 ¾ lengths at seven furlongs on Nov. 19.)

FAIR GROUNDS

Vigilante Law: Raced third early, dropped to fourth more than 6 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, closed well to make up more than 2 ¼ lengths in stretch and finished second, beaten three-quarters of a length at a mile and 70 yards on Jan. 8.

GOLDEN GATE FIELDS

Curly Boy: Raced 6 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, checked nearing quarter pole, dropped to fifth after six furlongs, rallied from fourth in stretch to make up five lengths and finished second, beaten a head at a mile on a good turf course Dec. 26.

Famous Dottie: Raced fifth early, dropped to sixth after three-eighths of a mile, rallied from fifth to make up more than 3 ¾ lengths in stretch and gained second by 1 ¾ lengths at 5 ½ furlongs on Nov. 6.

GULFSTREAM PARK

Mr. Haywood: Broke a bit slowly from the outside 12th post, raced more than seven lengths behind in 10th after a half-mile, closed fast from ninth in stretch, made up more than four lengths and gained third by a head at 6 ½ furlongs on Dec. 26.

Minister Colin: Raced ninth early, dropped to 11th more than 9 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, swung out for stretch run and closed well from fifth to finish third, beaten a head and a neck at a mile on the turf Dec. 4. (Broke 10th and last, advanced to sixth more than three lengths behind after six furlongs and rallied from third to win by 3 ¾ lengths at a mile on the turf Jan. 2.)

HAWTHORNE

Better Make Money: Hopped at break, raced more than 9 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, rallied from fifth in stretch to make up four lengths and finished second, beaten a half-length at 6 ½ furlongs on Dec. 23.

Kind Regards: Raced 5 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, shifted out in stretch losing ground to fifth and rallied to finish second by 3 ¾ lengths at 6 ½ furlongs on Dec. 9. (Dueled with leader a half-length behind after a half-mile, edged forward in stretch and won by a length at six furlongs on a sloppy surface Dec. 30.)

Diva’s Diamond: Raced more than 7 ½ lengths behind in ninth after a half-mile and rallied a bit from fourth in stretch to finish third by six lengths at 1 1/16 miles on Nov. 19. (Raced more than seven lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, carried out by pacesetter while rallying in stretch and dead-heated for second at 1 1/16 miles on Dec. 3.)

LAUREL PARK

Mystical Terp: Raced 2 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, cruised up behind rivals near quarter pole and rallied in stretch from second to win by length at six furlongs on Nov. 9. (Raced six lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, drifted out in mid-stretch and finished third by a length at six furlongs on Dec. 3.)

Unbridled Pride: Tracked pace three lengths behind in third after a half-mile, closed in stretch to pass pacesetter and won by three-quarters of a length at six furlongs on Dec. 10; returned $25 on front end. (Raced more than three lengths behind in fourth after three-eighths of a mile, gained lead in stretch and won by 1 ¼ lengths at 5 ½ furlongs on Jan. 6)

PARX (PHILADELPHIA PARK)

Chief Thundercloud: Tracked pace more than a length behind in sixth after a half-mile, checked in traffic on turn and rallied gamely in stretch to gain third by a neck, beaten a head for place at 6 ½ furlongs on Jan. 7.

Padre Ed: Pressed pace a head and a half-length behind in third after a half-mile and rallied a bit in stretch to finish second, beaten a half-length at a mile and 70 yards on a good surface Dec. 6. (Pressed pace a head and a half-length behind in third, battled down the stretch and finished second, beaten a neck at a mile on a wet fast surface Dec. 28.)

Reason to Drink: Broke alertly from inside post, led by 1 ½ lengths off rail and won by a length at six furlongs on Nov. 26; returned $14.20 on front end. (Pressed pace a head behind in second after a half-mile, edged clear by two lengths in mid-stretch and won by a half-length under steady handling at six furlongs on Dec. 18; returned $24.60 on front end.)

PENN NATIONAL

Muscadine: Raced 10th and last more than 14 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile and rallied from fifth to finish third by 3 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on a sealed sloppy surface Dec. 7 at Laurel. (Broke eighth and last, advanced to seventh 8 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, swung out for drive, rallied from sixth to make up more than four lengths in stretch and finished second, beaten a nose at six furlongs on Dec. 22; returned $10 for place.)

SANTA ANITA PARK

Starspangled Heat: Raced ninth more than eight lengths behind after a half-mile, came four wide into stretch, rallied from sixth making up more than 4 ½ lengths and finished third, beaten a half-length and a nose at 6 ½ furlongs on the turf Dec. 29.

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

M’Dearest: Raced more than 7 ½ lengths behind in ninth after a half-mile, closed fast from seventh in stretch to make up more than 4 ½ lengths and finished third, beaten a head and three-quarters of a length at about a mile on the turf Dec. 28.

Pack Attack: Roughed up breaking 12th and last, advanced to seventh more than 5 ½ lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile, rallied from fifth in stretch to make up nearly three lengths and finished second, beaten a neck at 5 ½ furlongs on Dec. 7. (Raced third early, dropped to fourth three lengths behind after a half-mile and rallied in stretch to gain second by a head at six furlongs on Dec. 16.)

TURF PARADISE

Peacock Alliance: Raced more than 2 ½ lengths behind in sixth after three-eighths of a mile, dropped to seventh in stretch, found best stride late, made up more than 2 ½ lengths and finished second, beaten a nose at 5 ½ furlongs on Dec. 28.

Complete Rule: Steadied after start, advanced from fifth to third three lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied in stretch to make up 2 ¾ lengths and finished second, beaten three-quarters of a length at six furlongs Dec. 5. (Went right to the front, led by two lengths after a half-mile, drew off in stretch and won by 10 ¾ lengths ridden out at 6 ½ furlongs on Dec. 23.)

TURFWAY PARK

St. Louis City: Tracked pace 1 ½ lengths behind in third after a half-mile, exchanged bumps splitting rivals in stretch and gained second by three-quarters of a length at six furlongs on Dec. 26.

Justifiably Salty: Raced sixth early, dropped to eighth more than 10 lengths behind after a half-mile, swung eight wide leaving turn, rallied in stretch to make up more than 6 ¼ lengths and finished third, beaten a neck and a half-length at six furlongs on Dec. 4. (Pressed pace early in second, shuffled back to sixth more than 3 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, swung to outside in stretch and rallied to finish second, beaten a head at 6 ½ furlongs on Dec. 17.

Kentucky Derby Trail Starts with Gulfstream Park Derby

by Horstradamus

posted on January 2, 2012 in General Discussion, Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby, News | No Comments >>

The first day of the 2012 horse racing season was all about the first “derby” of the year – a new race called the Gulfstream Park Derby.  Though it wasn’t a graded stake, and the purse was only $100,000 a field of 11 colts showed up to start their path on the Kentucky Derby trail.

As most of the horses in Sunday’s race were either making their stakes debut or taking a step up in class it was no surprise that handicappers didn’t quite have this one figured out. Ancient Rome, the lukewarm 3-1 favorite didn’t do anyone any favors by finishing second to last after racing three wide, getting tired, and calling it quits after the first half mile.

Reveron

The winner of the Gulfstream Park Derby ended up being the Calder shipper from across town, Reveron who connected for a nice $19.00 win mutual.  While most players on Sunday left Reveron off their tickets, Winning Ponies had this one nailed with Reveron as the #1 selection for this race.  The other two co-favorites Casual Trick and King Kid ran in the place and show spot respectively – meaning fans who keyed Reveron on top those two in the trifecta received a generous payout of $447.80.

Reveron accomplished his first stakes win by tracking 30-1 shot Nachas and Joy until the far turn – then responded well to a challenge by Casual Trick and held him off though the stretch to win by a half-length.  The final running time was a moderate 1:44.72 with respectable opening fractions of :23.45 and :47.42.  The winning Beyer Speed Figure of Reveron came back as an 87 – a very nice number for a horse coming out of an allowance race at Calder.

The trainer of Reveron, Agustin Bezara, is a newcomer to the US racing scene after leaving his native Venezuela just two years ago.  After his win in the Gulfstream Park Derby Bezara was ecstatic proclaiming that he thinks Reveron is the best 3-year-old in training in Florida.  Whatever Bezara has been doing with his horses it certainly paid off this weekend as he had two other winners on the card.  Not bad for a guy with a stable of only five horses.  While it is certainly too early in the season to tell if Reveron will make an impact in stakes that attract tougher competition, he’ll be fun to watch.

The next stop on the Kentucky Derby trail at Gulfstream is the Grade 3 Holly Bull Stakes to be run on January 29.  While the connections of Reveron, haven’t yet committed to anything yet – many are predicting to see him start in the Holy Bull, health permitting.  Bezara has already noted that Reveron seems to enjoy going two-turns and the Holy Bull is the prefect place to prove he’s for real. Nominations for the Holy Bull close on January 14, 2012 so be sure to check back here at Winning Ponies for our opinion on one of the more prominent Kentucky Derby prep races of the season in South Florida.

Free Santa Anita Picks LaBrea Stakes

by Horstradamus

posted on December 29, 2011 in Free Picks and Tips, Handicapping, Horse Racing, News, WinningPonies.com | No Comments >>

As we get ready to turn a new page and welcome the year 2012 the last Grade 1 race of 2011 will be run at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, December 31st.  The LaBrea Stakes at 7 furlongs for 3-year-old fillies features a cast of 9 including stand out horses Turbulent Descent who is looking for her third Grade 1 victory of the year and a chance to secure the title of Champion Female Sprinter at this year’s Eclipse Awards.

An important handicapping note for those betting on the LaBrea Stakes is that there has been a notable early speed bias at Santa Anita with 46% percent of races at 7 furlongs being won wire to wire.  Over the previous week the bias has been even stronger with all three 7 furlong dirt races being won on the front end.Santa Anita Park Logo

Here is a closer look at the entire field.

1. Home Sweet Aspen

This runner for top trainer John Sadler hasn’t finished worse than second in her six previous starts except for a failed experiment over the turf at Hollywood Park 4 weeks ago.  Home Sweet Aspen got up for place by a nose in the Grade 2 Eight Belles Stakes on derby day at Churchill Downs in May her only start at 7 furlongs.  Her early speed running style will give her an advantage over the main track at Santa Anita.

2. Turbulent Descent

The class of the field and proven at Santa Anita after a win in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks back in March.  While Turbulent Descent didn’t come through as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare sprint after being roughed up out of the starting gate.  Only real caveat is that her running style is strictly off the pace but with her speed she should be able to win with a clean trip.  Recent workouts suggest she is still at the top of her game.

3. May Day Rose

A Grade 3 winner who is coming off of a 50+ day layoff after finishing second in the Grade 2 Chilukki Stakes at Churchill Downs.  May Day Rose likes to go for the lead right out of the starting gate but doesn’t seem to have the same speed as others in this race.

4. Include Me Out

Include Me Out is taking a huge step up in class with only her only victory against winners coming in an optional claimer at Santa Anita as the odds-on favorite.  Doesn’t fit based on class.

5. Sarah’s Secret

This Grade 2 winner has been in a bit of a funk lately finishing off the board in two of her last 3 starts and only holding on for the show position by less than a length in the Grade 2 Las Palmas which had a short field of 5 runners.  The cutback to 7 furlongs may help Sarah’s Secret and a surface switch to dirt may be just what the doctor ordered.  Though this will be her first start on conventional dirt she does have two wins on the synthetic at Del Mar and Oak Tree at Hollywood Meet from 2010.

6. Sugarinthemorning

Hasn’t raced in more than 2 months, and is hard to place in this group after running in overnight stakes restricted to state bred horses.  Sugarinthemorning is also making a switch from turf to dirt after performing well on the synthetic surface at Del Mar earlier in the summer.

7. Great Hot

Great Hot is looking for a comeback after finishing second to last in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf back in November.  She did manage to finish third in the Lady’s Secret Stakes – also a Grade 1 at Santa Anita but will need to step it up to be a threat here.  A recent blow-out at 3 furlongs suggests she’s on the muscle.

8. California Nectar

Another listed stakes type horse who doesn’t figure as a threat against the better competition based on class.  Only ray of light is that California Nectar has back to back wins over 7 furlongs at Santa Anita albeit against lesser competition.

9. Teddy’s Promise

Teddy’s Promise comes out of back to back wins at Hollywood Park and Santa Anita but is outclassed by the other more likely winners.  This filly has run at all three Southern California tracks over every single surface except the Hollywood Turf.

Be sure to check out the entire menu of weekend and daily racing action at Winning Ponies where you can stop gambling and start winning!