Horses worth watching, a list of runners compiled by handicapper/turf writer Greg Melikov, should do well next time out. These thoroughbreds won seven times, finished second four times and ran third once since April 15. They’re worth considering when developing your wagering strategy for online betting or at your favorite track.

ARLINGTON PARK

Pryce’s Posse: Broke in tight quarters, raced fifth early, dropped to sixth 10 ½ lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile, rallied from fourth in stretch, rallied to make up 2 ¼ lengths and gained second by a length at five furlongs on a yielding turf course May 9.

Faptitude: Raced more than 12 lengths behind in seventh after a half-mile, angled four wide for stretch run, rallied to make up 5 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a head at about a mile on a good turf course May 5.

BELMONT

Sweet N Nutty: Raced ninth and last, 11 lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied to make up more than four lengths in stretch and gained second by 1 ¾ lengths at a mile on a sealed sloppy surface May 9.

The Laurels: Raced eighth, more than 5 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied from sixth in center of stretch to make up more than 3 ¼ lengths and gained third by head at 1 1/16 miles on a yielding turf course May 6.

Escape Artist: Raced 10th and last early, advanced to ninth six lengths behind after a half-mile, moved up to third entering the stretch, rallied to make up nearly four lengths, and finished second beaten a nose at a mile on April 27.

CALDER

Joanie’s Image: Broke slowly, eighth and last, raced 7 ½ lengths behind in seventh after a quarter-mile, rallied from sixth in stretch to make up 4 ½ lengths and gained second by 1 ¾ lengths at 4 ½ furlongs on May 6.

Truly Distinctive: Steadied after start, raced more than five lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, moved up for drive, rallied from second in stretch to make up 1 ½ lengths and finished in that position, beaten a half-length at a mile on a good surface April 22.

Madness n’ Mayhem: Raced 9 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, angled out for drive, rallied to make up more than 4 ½ lengths in stretch and finished second beaten a neck at a mile on April 9. (Raced more than 6 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, split rivals in stretch and rallied to gain second by a neck at 1 1/16 miles on the turf April 27.)

Call in Rich: Raced fifth early, dropped to sixth seven lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied in stretch to make up 3 ½ lengths and gained third by 2 ¾ lengths at six furlongs on March 16 at Gulfstream Park. (Tracked pace 4 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, couldn’t gain on leader in stretch and finished second by a length at seven furlongs on May 3.)

DELAWARE PARK

Guam Typhoon: Pressed pace early, led by a head after tree-eighths of a mile and won by 1 ¾ lengths at five furlongs on the turf March 17 at Tampa Bay Downs. (Broke sharply, led by a length after a half-mile and drew off under a brisk hand ride to win by 5 ½ lengths at six furlongs on May 14.)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Party Hard: Off slow, raced more than four lengths being in seventh after a half-mile, bottled up in traffic on far turn, worked way to extreme outside in stretch and rallied to gain third by three-quarters of a length at 1 1/16 miles on May 3.

GOLDEN GATE FIELDS

Tropical Heat: Broke eighth and last, trailed by more than 7 ½ lengths after a half-mile, steadied and blocked along rail, swung out in stretch, rallied from seventh to make up more than 3 ¾ lengths and gained second by a nose at 1 1/16 miles on May 5.

My T Quick: Raced third early, dropped to fourth, more than 7 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied outside in stretch to make up 3 ¾ lengths and finished second by a half-length at 1 1/16 miles on April 21.

Hard Spun Secrets: Raced third early, dropped to fourth more than three lengths behind after a half-mile, closed gamely inside to make up two lengths in stretch and finished second, beaten a neck at six furlongs on April 8. (Raced more than two lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, blocked behind leaders in stretch, angled out and gained second by 1 ½ lengths at six furlongs on May 3.)

Premium Quality: Broke fifth and last, moved to fourth more than 1 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, trapped behind leaders at three-sixteenths pole, raced in check until eighth pole, shifted out, made up nearly 1 ½ lengths and finished third beaten two necks at six furlongs on March 25.

Denim and Diamonds: Broke slowly, raced 9 ½ lengths behind in third after a half-mile, gained command in stretch by three lengths and drew off to win by six lengths at a mile on March 25. (Chased pace five lengths behind in second after a half-mile, rallied in stretch to lead by three lengths and held on to win by a neck at a mile on April 15.)

FAIRMOUNT PARK

Rare Action: Chased pace more than seven lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, rallied very wide to make up 3 ¼ lengths in stretch and finished third by 4 ½ lengths at six furlongs on April 1 at Hawthorne… (Tracked pace in fourth two heads and a length behind after a half-mile, roused for drive, took lead by 1 ½ lengths in stretch and drew off to win by six lengths at six furlongs on April 27 at Hawthorne.)

HOLLYWOOD PARK

Confucius Junior: Broke outward, raced 4 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, came out entering stretch, rallied between rivals to make up 2 ½ lengths and finished second, beaten a head at a mile on the turf April 8 at Santa Anita. (Pressed pace a length behind in third after a half-mile, came three wide into stretch and finished second by a half-length at 1 1/16 miles on May 6.)

Adam Suances: Raced seventh and last more than 9 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, split rivals in mid-stretch and finished third by a half-length at a mile on March 18 at Santa Anita. (Ran sixth early, dropped to eighth more than three lengths behind after a half-mile, came out in stretch and drew clear to win by 2 ½ lengths at seven furlongs on April 29.)

LOUISIANA DOWNS

Can’touchthisgal: Raced more than five lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, came four wide into stretch, rallied to make up nearly five lengths and finished second, beaten a neck at 7 ½ furlongs on the turf May 6.

MONMOUTH PARK

Dragonfish: Broke seventh and last, raced sixth 15 lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, rallied from fourth along rail in stretch, made up more than three lengths and finished second, beaten a half-length at 1 1/16 miles on May 12.

PARX (PHILADELPHIA PARK)

Spin Zone: Grabbed lead by a half-length after a half-mile and drew off under wraps to win by 9 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on May 8.

Forest Machi: Raced more than five lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, closed fast between rivals in stretch to make up more than 2 ½ lengths and finished second, beaten a half-length at six furlongs on April 21.

Coffee Bar: Tracked pace two lengths behind in third after a half-mile, took lead in early stretch and drew off with speed to spare, winning by four lengths at seven furlongs on April 9.

Island Bound: Raced more than 4 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, rallied wide from third to make up 3 ½ lengths in stretch and finished, second beaten a half-length at 6 ½ furlongs on March 27.

Empire Diva: Raced more than 4 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile and rallied a bit in stretch to finish third by 10 ½ lengths at seven furlongs on April 22. (Pressed pace a half-length and a head behind in third after a half-mile, eased out wider in stretch and won going away by 2 ½ lengths at six furlongs on May 8.)

Rock Ptarmigan: Raced 8 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, rallied on far turn to take lead in upper stretch and drew off to win by 5 ¾ lengths at a mile on April 17. (Chased pace six lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile and rallied in stretch to gain second by three-quarters of a length at a mile on May 5.)

PIMLICO

Super Chunky: Bumped with rival near turn, raced more than nine lengths behind in fifth after three-eighths of a mile, rallied in stretch to make up more than 5 ¾ lengths and finished dead-heated for third, beaten a neck and a head at five furlongs on April 21.

No Easy Answer: Raced more than seven lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, swung wide for the drive, closed fast from fourth in stretch to make up more than 5 ¼ lengths and finished second, beaten three-quarters of a length at six furlongs on March 30; ran final quarter in 24 4/5.

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

Another Smokey: Broke sixth and last, trailed by five lengths after a half-mile and rallied from fifth in stretch to finish third by a half-length at 1 1/16 miles on the turf April 7. (Broke seventh and last, trailed by more than seven lengths after a half-mile, rallied a bit in stretch from fourth and finished third by 1 ½ lengths at a mile on the turf May 4.)

TURF PARADISE

Seven Tuff: Bumped, squeezed at start, assumed command on turn, led by three lengths in stretch and drew off to win by 11 lengths, ridden out at five furlongs on April 6. (Tracked pace a head and a half-length behind after three-eighths of a mile, closed fast in stretch and drew clear to win by 2 ¼ lengths at five furlongs on April 29.)

WOODBINE

Big Apple Red: Broke seventh and last, trailed by more than seven lengths after a half-mile, rallied from sixth in stretch to make up more than 6 ¼ lengths and finished third, beaten a head and a neck at six furlongs on May 9.

Any Given Royal: Raced sixth early, dropped to seventh more than 4 ½ lengths behind after three-eighths of a mile, lost ground entering the stretch, rallied from fifth to make up 4 ¾ lengths and finished second, beat three-quarters of a length at 5 ½ furlongs on April 22.

What to do, what to do….. We have all been looking over the replay of the Derby for the 1,000th time. Every running makes Mario Gutierrez look like Eddie Arcaro, and Bodemeister was the speed of speed. With a better trip, Went The Day Well could have been a major player. So, toss all this in the bag of tricks, and I’ll bet you’ll come out more confused than ever.

Forty-six runners have won two legs of the Triple Crown. This begin in 1877 with Cloverbrook, and last with Big Brown in 2008. With that little nugget in mind, I’ll Have Another does not have the easiest of tasks. Doug O’Neill gave notice in the Derby that his stable needs to be taken seriously. Mr. Reddam has ice-water running through his veins keeping a Hastings Park rider in the irons. Now, that kind of loyalty is not found everyday. According to the Courier-Journal, his connections really like what they are seeing. Doug O’Neill said that he has good energy, and a great appetite. These are all good signs for the 46-year-old jinx to go down with a little racing luck.

Bodemeister may be getting ducked by a few runners. Could you blame anyone after the blazing fractions to the top of the lane ? This Virginia-bred for Baffert can put out their lights. I really think he will be a force to reckoned with down the road. With five races to his resume, they have been spaced about one month apart. This may be a tough task, but if he is half as tough as he appears this may be the first VA-bred since Hansel to take this race. But, with all due respect, I will pass as I really see no value. Plenty of class, but the odds will take a beating.

Went The Day Well took my bulk of cash in the Derby. At 27-1, how could you pass up Johnny Velasquez for Graham Motion?  He was 2nd in a pair of turf events across the pond. The Vinery / Spiral really made me take notice. He ran so green, and J.V. patiently guided him home in a teaching moment. He wore the blinkers for the first time in the Derby, and closed from 17th to be 4th. I am giving him a pass, or at least giving myself one more chance to watch his skills. He has six races to his credit, and I liked the way he finished up inside of the montser Dullahan. With his plans for the Belmont, I am beginning to lean in W.T.D.W’s direction. He is learning, and with a little cleaner trip I think this New York-bred may get right in a hurry.

These are my target-three-runners at this time. I know, there is no big news here. But, we may be able to find mega-value with the third and fourth ends of the gimmicks. I will be buckling down with my E-Z Win Forms to get the scoop. It doesn’t matter about the win odds, as you may still be able to take that big vacation when you cash on this race. I see the Derby winner running very well at the top of the lane, and when the rider looks over his right shoulder he will see the Team Valor colors getting closer by the stride. It will be a good one, and the race could prove to be as much fun as a day with Kegasus in the infield.

While the 2012 Kentucky Derby is in the books, there are still horses looking to make their way to the Triple Crown races, and the Peter Pan Stakes this weekend often acts as a stepping stone prep race to the Belmont Stakes in June.

Several horses that were once Derby prospects are taking a “better late than never” approach to getting back on the Triple Crown trail. The 5-2 morning line favorite Mark Valeski was second in both the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star Stakes earlier this year; Teeth of the Dog (6-1), The Lumber Guy (7-2), and Street Life (8-1) finished 3rd, 5th, and 6th respectively to Gemologist in the Wood Memorial in April.

The $200,000 Peter Pan is run at 1 1/8 miles so moving forward from there to the 1 1/2 miles Belmont will be asking a lot of these colts. However Belmont Park offers an incentive to do so: NYRA will waive the Belmont Stakes entry and starting fees for any of the first three finishers of the Peter Pan.

A trip to the Belmont Stakes would be nice but require some waiting, and some connections are actually eyeing the Preakness Stakes as their goal, making their status in the Peter Pan uncertain. Teeth of the Dog, trained by Michael Matz, and Zetterholm (20-1), trained by Richard Dutrow, are possible scratches. If the Preakness field isn’t packed yet, they would be pulled from the Peter Pan and pointed to Pimlico for next Saturday.

The Peter Pan promises to be an exciting exhibition of 3 year olds who may be down but are definitely not out. A.P. Indy was the last horse to win the Belmont Stakes after taking the Peter Pan, but can one of these talented colts be next? Don’t miss out on the great action at Belmont Park this weekend!

Horses that run in the Kentucky Derby have performed really well in the Preakness over the past quarter-century. In fact, 24 of the past 27 Preakness winners ran in the Derby.

The only exceptions that came in the 21st Century: Rachel Alexandra, ’09; Bernardini, ’06; and Red Bullet, ’00.

Four Derby champs the past decade were successful at Pimlico: Big Brown, ’08; Smarty Jones, ’04; Funny Cide, ’03; and War Emblem, ’02. Two others ran second: Mine That Bird ’09 and Fusaichi Pegasus in ’00.

Three others that failed at Churchill Downs during the same decade triumphed two weeks later: Curlin, ’07; Afleet Alex, ’05; and Point Given, ’01.

In ’05, during one of the more exciting races, Afleet Alex overcame near disaster in the stretch. The son of Northern Afleet, third in the Derby, came flying around the far turn with dead aim on pacesetter High Limit, but was blocked.

Suddenly Scrappy T, racing second in front of him, bore out in the upper stretch. Afleet Alex stumbled, buckled to his knees and Jeremy Rose was almost unseated. Both quickly recovered their balance and the colt zipped inside Scrappy T, sticking his head in front a furlong from the wire. Afleet Alex drew off and won by 4 ¾ lengths.

Newcomers had their greatest series of performances in the early ’80s. Three horses that skipped the Louisville race captured the second jewel of the Triple Crown: Deputed Testimony, ’83; Alomas’s Ruler, ’82; and Codex, ’80.

Preakness favorites haven’t let down the betting public during the past 22 years, winning 10 times, including nine that exited the Derby. Double-digit winners have been few and far between – only 11 since ’75 when the longest shot in history, Master Derby, returned $40 on the front end.

Wagering on the Preakness should depend on the formula you use to handicap stakes races: form, class, race conditions, connections, etc.

First and foremost, as far as I’m concerned, any contender should exhibit form, plus necessary morning workouts since the last outing.

For example, 3-year-olds that haven’t raced in more than 30 days should show a work at Pimlico and ample evidence they have a history of performing well off short or long layoffs.

Class is important, but a tricky part of the puzzle. I believe runners that performed well against first-rate foes in recent races merit consideration. However, those that benefited from easy pace figures against lesser rivals should send up a red flag.

It’s a good idea to visualize how the Preakness will be run: who the front-runners will be, what contenders will be stalking and which runners have the best chance of closing.

One myth perpetuated over the years ballyhoos Pimlico as a speed-favoring surface with sharp turns that favor front-running horses. Actually, the turns are almost identical to Churchill Downs.

However, keep in mind horses in the lead turning for home have the edge since the stretch is 168 feet shorter that Churchill Downs’ 1,320 feet.

I have a very good friend who loves the finer things in life. She can tell the difference between “brown-bag-swill” and an aged Cabernet. There is no fast food that gets ingested. She is a cook that borders on chef. But, the part I really enjoy is that she loves to gamble with the best of them.

We met at the  racetrack long ago, and there have been some really exciting wagering adventures over the years. That is the glue that keeps our friendship alive. She hails from a family that plays cards, works hard, and enjoys life. She regales me with days gone by, and how her father would keep his daily appointment with a deck of cards and men with money rolls that could choke a horse. So, you could say that “Little G”  has the gambling bug.

It was a call that I received after she had a unique visit to a casino. She just came off a 12-hour shift, and had to burn off some steam. Gambling is unique, as it has a way of bringing you down a couple of notches, and leaves you with that two-hour vacation feeling. ‘G” told me that she had spanked a blackjack machine. She had it clocked at close to a $1,000, and wanted to cash out and call it a day. The button to collect was small, and it was situated right next to the “bet-all” button. Well, right about now you are getting that mental image of how she played like a champ, and punched the wrong button. The hand was dealt, and all of her hard work went down the flusher. During the call, I was on my way to the track, and thought about getting out and jumping off the bridge.

But, that was me. She took it in stride, and wanted to get in for half of my action on the ponies. I would have been taken away in a white coat, and she stopped off and had lunch. I guess that is the gaming bug that courses through her body. I guess her Dad would have handled it the same, and it was just another day at the office for this high-powered professional. “Hold on tightly, and let go lightly.”

As she was eating, and asking if I liked anything strong, she switched gears and started talking about how much of a bankroll we needed to knockout the Preakness. I guess you could say she is a “gamer.” No bitching, no sweating, and knows the lesson of winning is all about the comeback. She then switched up again about a busy day, and how she was preparing. If she is half the gambler at work, she will have the corner office with a big title, or be walking to the car with her desk belongings. Either way, she knows the golden rule. This was just one day, and knows that scared money and excuses do not make a winner. Her words of wisdom are as follows: 1. you must have the bankroll to make it happen, 2. your desire to win must be genuine, and have confidence galore, and 3. – the most important item of all – is that you can’t be afraid to pull the trigger.  She isn’t, and one thing you can bet on is that she will be back.  You can watch things happen, make things happen, or wonder what happened. For “Little G,” there is only one way.  She has the attitude, the energy, and the love of life. I wish I could make a bet on her, because it is just a matter of time before she’ll be back on top.

It's official: I'll Have Another is your 2012 Kentucky Derby winner!

I really looked forward to this weekend of racing. I entered in with many thoughts before Friday, and now I have a renewed vision of sorts.

How many people thought the pace would collapse?  I sure did, and man was I surprised. They sizzled through six panels in 1:09, and Bodemeister looked like a winner. He not only took it to Trinniberg, but he showed that Baffert has a runner to be appreciated. I did not have him on top of my list, but my enthusiasm for him to return is growing. I thought that Mr. Baffert would have something a little further down the road, but it turned out that this one is a bear. So, I am officially dumping the 1882 / Apollo talk right now. Times have changed, and runners can and will come with fewer races. Baffert sounded like he needs some time down for himself. It has to be grueling to face the Dubai heart attack scare, and try to recover so quickly. His horse looked fine, but everytime I heard him speak to the media he got emotional. Now, before anyone jumps to the quick, I am not a doctor, or even play one on TV. But one of my favorite trainers looks like he could use some down time on the farm. Just a little break to come back and be better than ever.

I’ll Have Another has fans enjoying adult beverages saying just that. The race turned out to be one of the greatest stories in the world. When Doug O’Neill spoke to the NBC team, he gave shout outs to his mom, and his greatest line of “look at me, I was a “C” student in school!”  His rider Mario Gutierrez, is now the hero of the hour. He rode at Hastings Park in Canada, and not long ago he was thinking of going back. I guess he is going to stay around a little bit longer now.  Paul Reddam must be one of the best guys in the world to keep a small time rider in the saddle. You could imagine that there were a bevy of big namers looking for mounts. The horse was named for Mr. Reddam’s response to his wife Zillah’s question if he would like another cookie. The 15-1 upset gives the owner, trainer, and jockey their first Derby victory. It was a truly great ride, and his cool head allowed him to weave this colt through traffic like he has been there before.  Congratulations…

Dullahan looked like he had run on every surface except broken glass. I doubted a bit; even though he ran a hole in the wind scoring impressively in the Bluegrass. When he got moving like a heavy-loaded train it looked like he was going to roll late in the shadow of the wire. I think he will probably find the winner’s circle many times to come. It may be on dirt, turf, or the poly-track. But, one thing you can count on is Dale Romans bringing him ready.

Went The Day Well did not catch me sleeping, but he did not reward me at the windows on this day. But, just give him time and I think this will take care of itself. I just hope he comes out in fine order, and Graham Motion will take care of the rest. I really look forward to seeing him, as I think he will be special.

Union Rags…. I think he will need some time, and let Mr. Matz fix what ails him. First, I hope that Julien will not tweet anymore lines about the next time. Horses run, and sometimes they get beat. He had a rough trip, and pointing at the center field wall and calling for a home run in the Derby is a tall order. Leparoux is super talented, and if you have any doubts, just ask the many riders who have been inhaled by his runners.

I had the honor of chatting with a young lady rider on the Winning Ponies radio show by the name of Rosie Napravnik. She is the first woman in 138 years to win the Kentucky Oaks. She has the hands of a musician, and the patience of a long-time rider. She is good on the lead, or getting her mounts to close stoutly down the lane. Believe You Can is trained by the talented Larry Jones. He is easy to spot in his white stetson, as only the good guys wear white hats. Congratulations, Rosie and keep finding that winner’s circle.

Check out the great shots of the 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders warming up and working out at Churchill Downs, captured by John Engelhardt!

Went the Day Well

Gemologist

Take Charge Indy

I'll Have Another

El Padrino

Hansen

 

Dullahan

Bodemeister

Jockey Rosie Napravnik has left her mark in the racing history books by becoming the first female rider to win the 2012 Kentucky Oaks!  Aboard 13-1 Believe You Can, she certainly did just that, and this rising star deserves her moment in the spotlight.  Napravnik sat patiently right off of the pace and went on to win by 3/4 of a length.  Way to go Rosie!

Take Charge Indy

(Photo John Engelhardt)

On Thursday’s show we interviewed a variety of experts and here is a consensus of their selections.  For a complete analysis of their selections you can listen to the show on podcast at - radio.winningponies.com

Jennie Rees – Louisville Courier-Journal
#3 – Take Charge Indy
#15 – Gemologist
#10 – Daddy Nose Best

Rich Eng – Las Vegas Review Journal
#3 – Take Charge Indy
#4 – Union Rags
#8 – Creative Cause

Ed Meyer – Handicap Champ
#4 – Union Rags
#13 – Went the Day Well
315 – Gemologist

John Engelhardt – Host of WinningPonies Radio Show
#15 – Gemologist
#4 – Union Rags
#6 – Bodemeister