What Did We Learn?

by Ed Meyer

posted on March 23, 2011 in General Discussion, Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby | No Comments >>

BooksLast weekend, the Rebel at Oaklawn gave us a peek at a very nice runner. The Factor goes from flag fall to that’s all, and very impressive all the way. But will it be enough??

Martin Garcia in the irons went to the lead and put the field to sleep. Before we go any further, Sway Away was bumped, and with swayback runners they tend to pop their head up and get lost. He will be special, but this acid test gave a us a deeper glimpse.

Bob Baffert was impressed and felt the horse came back blowing a bit and needed the solid effort.  If he hooks Uncle Mo, we could set some salty fractions. This usally leads to a closer. Personally, I do not favor front runners in the Derby. I like stalkers who stay out of traffic. Even if a speed horse can settle and run later. That is effective in the mad run at Churchill Downs.

There were scratches, and defections. I really don’t think this affected the outcome. Elite Alex scratched the race because he was shot to the outside post.  The Factor made a big splash, and I would love to see some longer works,  and a longer haul in the Oaklawn Derby. My first glance as the stakes get higher was good. I like the way Garcia looked, and Baffert is laying low. When you hear him talking loud and wild. I don’t buy the hype. I once heard him say he liked a two-year-old a little bit, and thought he could be OK in time. His name was Point Given.

Overall, I felt it was impressive to say the least. The rider and trainer do well together, and if I had to pick one thing to cry about, it would be that speed was carrying all week.

But at this time, I am buying a little stock in this runner. I like him, but the Louisiana Derby catches my eye as well.  I will be doing a breakdown of the race, and  checking in with last minute thoughts to help at the window.

Good luck!!

Leave a Comment