Archive for the ‘Horse Racing’ Category

No Spring Blossom

by Ed Meyer

posted on March 14, 2010 in General Discussion, Other Events | No Comments >>

I would have loved to have seen two of the best females get back on the track and square up for $5 million. It would have had the feeling of Seabiscuit and War Admiral. But, I guess we’ll just have to wonder what would have been.

It was confirmed that Rachel Alexandra would not run in the Apple Blossom. The race was bumped up to a swelled $5 million purse, if both showed up to run. But, it looks like it will be back to the original $500,000.

Steve Asmussen was taking this really heavy. I spoke to a friend of mine who was on-track doing newspaper notes work.  He thought it was going to be the best racing weekend of his life. But when they were turning for home, he knew things were about to get tense.

Mr. Asmussen said he would never have sent out a runner who was not ready. When Calvin Borel was interviewed during the day, you would have thought the day was going to be all downhill running for the gal. It looked too easy… There was plenty of time off, and who knows? Maybe she did need one….

The good part was that she came back in good order. I think they will drop back and re-think her course in racing. It is so hard to keep a finely tuned blade to that level of sharpness. Even Zenyatta didn’t have the cleanest of trips, but she looked so good, it was hard to believe that she missed a day.

Racing sure could have used this race. The fans were coming back, and the gals were being mentioned with the all-time greats. Oaklawn Park and surrounding areas were worried about accommodating the crowds. But that is all gone. The race will still be great, but it won’t have that needed boost of star power. The game sure could have used a boost. It would have been nice to have witnessed this event. It would have been great to bring new faces to our sport. It would have been many things, but not anymore. I guess racing will just have to wait…

Change of Plans [Free Selection]

by Ed Meyer

posted on March 13, 2010 in Free Picks and Tips, Other Events | No Comments >>

At this moment, I am watching Gulfstream Park run in a quagmire. Now, that is likely to change by the morning, and now more than ever, I would advise you to check the weather and change the track condition tab if needed. But, I digress… I do like some plays on the Saturday card.  Funny thing happens on the way to window. When the big races come out, we make our way to windows.

Tampa Bay

Race #11 – The Tampa Bay Derby

This race is a burrito of options. At first glance, you would love #6 Super Saver, who will offer low odds. That is fine, and he has been bred to enjoy the off-going. I see him to be vulnerable. I don’t want the small odds here. I will wait until he runs at Churchill, and I should do better at the window.

Go one more post out, and I think you have the winner. #7 Odysseus looks very good to me.  Rajiv Maragh is in the saddle for Thom Albertrani. He is winning at 20% at TBD, and Maragh is 1/1 with wins as a ship-in rider. Triple Crown nominated, and was purchased for $250,000 at the Ocala sale. Third time off a layoff, and getting better with each effort. OC – 75,000 is a very tough level. He romped by 15, and had more in the tank. On the morning line he is 7-2, and I see this or more when the gates break. Super Saver looks the real deal, and I think if all goes well, we will be seeing him the first Saturday in May.

Maragh is an underrated rider, and he just had a milestone victory of win number 1,000. Give him time, and you will see a fine career. He sits very well in the saddle, and you will always get your money’s worth when he rides.

This is not the biggest upset in the history of racing if he wins, but he looks good. I think many stables do not want to open up peak too soon. S.S. is a nice animal, but I am hoping to see another strut his stuff to get his picture taken.

I would have had a few Gulfstream runners for you, but after they canceled, I am waiting and watching. Be sure to utilize the change of track condition tab before you download your data. The track crew is the best in the world, and who knows what Mother Nature holds. I would watch and wait, and be sure to check your scratches as WinningPonies is a one-stop shop for all of your information.

Proceed with caution, and enjoy the day of races. Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta are running, and you will want to download data to make your multi-race exotics one-step smaller. It would be plain bad if you rooted against the gals. I want to see them hook-up for $5 million in the Apple Blossom, and Saturday kicks it all off. So, buckle up and get ready. A big day is heading your way.

Good luck!

Florida Derby Proves To Be A Historic Stakes Race

by Greg Melikov

posted on February 25, 2010 in General Discussion, Other Events | No Comments >>

Ten Florida Derby winners during the past 54 years have won the Kentucky Derby. The first was Nashua in 1955 and the last was Big Brown in ‘08.

But nary a 3-year-old who triumphed in Gulfstream Park’s premier stakes race, scheduled for March 20, captured the Triple Crown. In ‘56, Needles came the closest. The Florida Derby winner, named for being inoculated often as a sickly foal, defeated Fabius by three-quarters of a length in the Kentucky Derby – the first victorious Florida bred.

But Fabius, eighth in the Florida Derby, upset Needles in the Preakness by three-quarters of a length. Needles took the Belmont Stakes while Fabius finished third.

The previous year, Swaps cost Nashua the Triple Crown by winning the Kentucky Derby by 1 1/2 lengths. In ‘58, Tim Tam missed out, finishing second in the Belmont to Cavan, with a broken bone in the joint between the knee and the hoof. In ‘68, Forward Pass lost by 1 1/4 lengths to State Door Johnny in the Belmont.

I witnessed my first Florida Derby in ‘57 a year after graduating the University of Miami. Gen. Duke defeated Bold Ruler by 1 1/2 lengths and set the stakes record of 1:46 4/5 for the 1 1/8 miles, which was recognized until several years ago, when the main track was expanded.

However, Quality Road’s winning performance in last year’s edition was a full second off Gen. Duke’s time. Even Quality Road’s track record victory in this year’s Donn Handicap was three-fifths of a second off the Calumet Farms’ horse 53 years ago.

On the eve of the 83rd Kentucky Derby, the son of Bull Lea came up lame and was scratched. Gallant Man was on his way to victory at Churchill Downs when Bill Shoemaker misjudged the finish line and Iron Liege won by a nose.

Bold Ruler took the Preakness and Gallant Man captured the Belmont. Gen. Duke later developed the spinal affliction known as wobbles and died.

The most exciting Florida Derby I witnessed came in ‘95, when favored Suave Prospect clashed with Thunder Gulch. It was a rematch following Thunder Gulch’s neck victory in the Fountain of Youth. The winner paid a generous $11.40.

In the Florida Derby, Suave Prospect was part of a three-horse entry, favored over Thunder Gulch on my birthday, March 11. Jerry Bailey, back aboard Suave Prospect, was hotter than the summer South Florida heat, scoring repeatedly. Mike Smith returned on Thunder Gulch.

Both horses stalked pacesetters to the far turn. Then Bailey gunned Suave Prospect from fourth to take the lead in the upper stretch by 1 1/2 lengths. But under Smith’s strong handling, Thunder Gulch wore down Suave Prospect, prevailed by a nose and paid $6.

After finishing a disappointing fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes, Thunder Gulch went off at 25-1 and, with Gary Stevens aboard, edged Tejano Run, ridden by Bailey, in the 121st Kentucky Derby. Suave Prospect, guided by Julie Krone, ran 11th while Smith’s mount, Talkin Man, finished 12th.

Eskendereya and Jackson Bend, the 1-2 finishers in this year’s Fountain of Youth, are on track for a rematch in the 59th Florida Derby. How exciting it will be is in the hands of the racing gods.

Patience

by Ed Meyer

posted on February 25, 2010 in Free Picks and Tips, General Discussion, Kentucky Derby | No Comments >>

All of my pals are arguing over the Derby trail. They are already starting to get huffy over seeing glimpses of the big winner. Just be patient my boys. It is not time yet….

When we had Blood Horse Editor Tom LaMarra on our show, he said : “I like to wait until the last minute to make my final decisions.” I think if you are betting a few ducats on the Future Book, then speculate. If not, just take a breath. I am trying, and it gets harder every year. I have noticed that I do the best when I wait and take the majority of races in fully. It seems that if I start over-thinking, down the tubes I will go.

Here are a few that I have seen that deserve a thought at this point:

Rule - Pletcher is the trainer, and he is loaded this year. Didn’t we say that same thing in past years? His runner is versatile and runs on everything but blacktop and broken glass. It would not surprise me to see him appear at the $500,000 Lane’s End Stakes at Turfway Park, for a soft spot at a big pot.

Eskenderya – The “Todd-Squad” once again. Big winner in Florida, and you have to start thinking after that 8 – plus length victory, that we would see him down the road….

Super Saver - This one must be hot. My dad loves him! Even though he keeps calling him Super Baby, he looks good. Wait until he goes to New York, before buying your stock. I just hope Calvin Borel gets the mount. I think he would fit just fine.

Eightyfiveinafifty – I need one more race before I keep or scrap. A 17 1/2 length victory makes me think that all of those million dollar offers could not have been wrong. Just let him heal and wait…….

One to watch for the long haul is Aikenite.  This may be a slow developer, and the extra time may bring him along at the right time. The way he wanted to run only gave me outside hope. This is a long shot hope at this time, and only time will tell.. We can always scratch him off the list later.

There it is. I am not ready to compile a list, and I am on a scouting mission. If I see something, you will know. For me, the longer I wait, the better I will do… The boys at WP have held their own over the years, and if you keep them in mind, I think you may be ahead of the game.

Greg Melikov’s Top 10 Derby Contenders

by Greg Melikov

posted on February 24, 2010 in Free Picks and Tips, General Discussion, Kentucky Derby | 1 Comment >>

It appears the Run for the Roses is the Todd and Bob Show as in trainers Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert. Here are my Top 10 contenders for the Kentucky Derby from bottom to top Dave Letterman style:

Super Saver: One of the many Kentucky Derby hopefuls trained by Todd Pletcher. The son of Maria’s Mon has been training well, but is not scheduled to debut as a 3-year-old until next month. Next race: Gotham Stakes on March 6 at Aqueduct.

Drosselmeyer: His fourth place finish in the Risen Star wasn’t too bad, making up nearly 2 1/2 lengths in the stretch and losing by less than 1 3/4 lengths. It was the son of Golden Ballet’s second trip on dirt after winning in allowance company at Gulfstream. Next race: Louisiana Derby on March 27 at Fair Grounds.

Buddy’s Saint: Two race winning streak was snapped for son of Saint Liam, when he had a disastrous start in the Fountain of Youth. Jockey Jose Lezcano said right after his ninth place finish on Feb. 20: “The other horses came in like nothing (on the first turn). I was already in a spot, and they came in and killed my horse; put him into the rail.” Next race: Florida Derby on March 20 at Gulfstream.

Jackson Bend: Runner-up in Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth needs to pick it up in next outing. Last victory in a route came last year as a top 2-year-old at Calder. Three strikes and the son of Hear No Evil is out of the Top 10.  Next race: Florida Derby.

Dublin: Poor showing in his last race in November led to successful epiglottis surgery. The son of Afleet Alex came from far back in the Risen Star, after starting slowly and racing wide off the far turn, to make up 3 1/4 lengths in the stretch to finish second. He plainly ran out of ground in the 1 1/16-mile contest. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is also breathing easier: “The further the better for him. He’s a big, imposing individual with a long stride.”

Discreetly Mine: One of many Kentucky Derby hopefuls trained by Todd Pletcher that shows promise. This son of Mineshaft captured the Risen Star on the front end when no foe wanted the lead. Tactical speed is a plus as he progresses. Next race: Louisiana Derby.

Rule: This Pletcher trainee is a horse for all tracks. The son of Roman Ruler has won four in a row. His victories were on Belmont’s sweeping track, Delta Downs’ fast and sloppy surfaces and Tampa Bay Downs’ quirky oval. Next race: Undecided.

Conveyance: One of trainer Bob Baffert’s stars is unbeaten in four outings, following his three-quarters of a length triumph in the Southwest Stakes. Transition to dirt went smoothly, but one question remains for the son of Indian Charlie: Can he get 1 1/4 miles? Next race: UAE Derby in Dubai March 27, Wood Memorial at Aqueduct April 3, or Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn April 10.

Lookin at Lucky: Baffert’s pride and joy hasn’t debuted as a sophomore, but has worked well. Despite being considered the top dog going 5 for 6, including runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in a horrible trip, the son of Smart Strike has time to get fit. Only negative: not racing on dirt with only two Kentucky Derby preps likely. Next race: San Felipe at Santa Anita or Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 13.

Eskendereya: An impresive 8 1/2-length victory in the Fountain of Youth puts the Pletcher trainee at the top of the 3-year-old ladder. The son of Giant’s Causeway has tactical speed and can win just off the pace, like he did Feb. 20, or can come from a bit out of it to grind down his foes. He’s 3 for 3 on dirt. Next race: Florida Derby.

Fountain of Youth Good Indicator for Florida Derby

by Greg Melikov

posted on February 16, 2010 in General Discussion, Other Events | No Comments >>

How a 3-year-old runs in Gulfstream Park’s second oldest stakes race often foretells a good showing in the Florida Derby.

Five of the past 15 Fountain of Youth (FOY) winners repeated in the track’s premier offering: Quality Road, last year; Scat Daddy, 2007; High Fly, ‘05; Vicar, ‘99; and Thunder Gulch, ‘95.

Since ‘79, only Spectacular Bid and Thunder Gulch scored the triple, taking the FOY, Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. However, FOY runners-up Go for Gin, ‘94, and Pleasant Colony, ‘81, plus third-place finishers Unbridled, ‘90, and Swale, ‘84, were successful on the first Saturday in May.

The first FOY winner to capture the Florida and Kentucky derbies was Tim Tam in ‘58.

Saturday’s 64th running of the $250,000 Grade 2 has been lengthened to 1 1/8 miles from last year’s a mile, the sixth different distance since favored Twenty Thirty won the inaugural at 1 1/16 miles in 1945 during Gulfstream’s third season. The purse: $5,000.

The Florida Derby prep was not run in ‘46 and ‘48, but twice in ‘47. After missing ‘52, it has been held each year since ‘53, when it was divided into two divisions for the first time.

This year’s race features several sophomore standouts, including Holy Bull runner-up Jackson Bend, who drilled four furlongs in 47 seconds on Feb. 13, the fastest of 42 works at the Palm Meadows Training Center.

Trainer Nick Zito has Jackson Bend on a similar path to Louisville as he did with his previous Kentucky Derby winners four years apart in the ’90s.

In ‘91, Strike the Gold was runner-up in a Gulfstream allowance race before finishing second to Fly So Free in the Florida Derby. Then the son of Alydar won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland before capturing the 117th Kentucky Derby by 1 3/4 lengths over Best Pal.

In ‘94, Zito’s Go for Gin was second in the FOY before finishing out of the money to Holy Bull in the Florida Derby. Then the son of Comorant ran second to Irgun in the Wood Memorial before leading all the way on a sloppy Churchill Downs surface, defeating Strodes Creek by two lengths.

Trainer Todd Pletcher may send out two contenders: stakes-winning Eskendereya, who captured a Gulfstream allowance contest last month, and Aikenite, a troubled sixth in the Holy Bull.

A top contender is Buddy’s Saint, winner of the Grade 2 Remsen by nearly five lengths on Nov. 28, who has been training gangbusters at Gulfstream. The son of Saint Liam breezed six furlongs in 1:13 2/5 in his eighth work since the first of the year.
Other expected runners are Pleasant Prince and Positive Split, second and third respectively in an allowance race last month. Pleasant Prince went five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 handily at Gulfstream on Sunday while Positive Split covered the same distance on a muddy surface in a minute handily a day earlier.

Pulsion, runner-up to leading 3-year-old Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk Stakes last fall at Oak Tre, before finishing 11th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, zipped six furlongs in 1:11 handily on Feb. 9.

Lost Aptitude, trying dirt for the first time after three victories on the turf, breezed five furlongs in 1:02 3/5 on Monday.

Two horses nominated for the FOY are heading to Fair Grounds for Saturday’s $300,000 Risen Star Stakes at 1 1/16 miles: Drosselmeyer and Tempted to Tapit.

Drosselmeyer has hit the board in all five starts, posting an impressive triumph in a Gulfstream allowance race at 1 1/8 miles in January. Tempted to Tapit broke his maiden last month by 11 1/2 lengths at a mile in the mud at Aqueduct.

The field for the Grade 2 is headed by Lecomte Stakes winner Ron the Greek, the morning line favorite with three victories in four starts. Others in the full field are Pletcher trainee Discreetly Mine, runner-up last year in two stakes at Belmont, and Stay Put, an allowance winner Feb. 1 at Fair Grounds.

Toss It Out

by Ed Meyer

posted on February 10, 2010 in General Discussion, Other Events | No Comments >>

This past weekend at Aqueduct, we saw a very nice three-year-old run in the $100,000 Whirlaway Stakes. It was a compact field headed by an overwhelming favorite Eightyfiveinafifty.

I was glued to the screen when, after breaking well and getting in a roll, the first turn was the place where this baby bolted and went through the outer rail. It looked as if his career would be over before it even started. He finished his last race with an impressive 17 plus length victory. It had people calling from all over the world to pony up million dollar offers to get a shot in May.

After seeing Jorge Chavez taken out wide after struggling wildly, I thought for sure it was over for him. I watched Peppi Knows roll into the winner’s circle, and I never gave it any more thought as I began to feel he was done.

Chavez told trainer Gary Contessa that his runner broke his bit, and and he had no control. Eightyfiveinafifty received a small cut on right hind leg. This was after he broke through the outer rail and made his way onto the main track. He jumped the outer rail and was caught by a guard on his way back to the barn. It sounds to me he did get a workout.

Dismiss this race. He did nothing wrong, and if you called with the offers before, you may want to call again. If you wait one more race to see if all is well, then that $2 million you were going to offer will now be $10 million. I think we have seen a very nice runner after a maiden break, and with the short running history of many three-year-olds today, I feel you may want to get on the bus while you can.

Chavez will be back riding this week, and the horse will mend this minor injury. You just need to keep notes on this, and get ready to see the next race. It may a nice opportunity to see him in a stakes race to prepare for the big time.

I haven’t seen much of this in my time at the track, but you can bet he will be looked over with a fine tooth comb next out. Things do happen, but I would bet dollars to donuts that you will not see it next out.

Early Birds May Catch Big Kentucky Derby Payoff

by Greg Melikov

posted on February 10, 2010 in General Discussion, Kentucky Derby | 2 Comments >>

The first of three Kentucky Derby future wager pools opens Friday and runs through Sunday for the 136th renewal of America’s Race on the first Saturday in May.

The pools were shortened a day to three because little betting was conducted on Thursdays. Exacta wagering introduced with last year’s second pool will be available in all three along with the standard win bet.

The future wager covers 23 individual 3-year-olds, with some pretty good odds, and a 24th betting interest that includes other runners. The minimum bet: $2 with no refunds if a horse doesn’t go. Churchill Downs determines which are excluded of illness, injury or another condition.

The remaining pools in March are scheduled for 5-7 and 26-28.

Last year’s wagering totaled $1,236,299, a slight rebound from the second-lowest total in 2008. The lowest was $1,665,990 in ‘03.

Opening pool favorites likely will include the 1-2 finishers in the ‘09 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Vale of York and Lookin at Lucky. They’re high weights in the hypothetical rankings known as the Experimental Free Handicap released late last month by The Jockey Club.

The annual ratings cover performances during the 2-year-old campaigns based on handicapping a 1 1/16-mile race on the dirt — the surface at Churchill Downs.

However, both leading juveniles have only raced on synthetic surfaces or turf.

The likely early favorite in first pool will be Lookin at Lucky, who won the Eclipse Award for best juvenile. At one racebook in Las Vegas the son of Smart Strike is listed as the 7-1 favorite. He captured five races on the varying synthetic surfaces of three California tracks.

Vale of York is 20-1. Before his lone victory in the United Stakes, the son of Invincible Spirit was 3-1-1 on the grass at four different tracks across the Atlantic.

He’s among eight of 17 early nominees for the Derby by Dubai ruler Sheik Mohammed’s Godolphin Racing operation.

Both horses are late foals: Vale of York on April 4, 2007, and Lookin at Lucky May 27 that year.

Bob Baffert, who trains Lookin at Lucky, has another dozen horses among the 366 nominees, down 8.7 percent from last year/ Two years earlier there was a record 450 early candidates.

Baffert is going for his fourth Derby triumph since Silver Charm scored in ‘97. His other winners: Real Quiet in ‘98 and War Emblem in ‘02.

Todd Pletcher leads all trainers for the fifth time in the past six years with 20 nominees. He’s looking for his first Derby winner the past decade when the closest of the 24 he ran second: Invisible Ink in ‘01 and Bluegrass Cat in ‘06.

Other juveniles that should attract some action in the first pool are:

Buddy’s Saint: After running second in his debut at Belmont Park, he cruised to victory in two stakes races at Aqueduct last fall. The son of ‘05 Horse of the Year Saint Liam has been training well for Gulfstream’s $250,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes on Feb. 20. He’s 12-1 at the racebook.

Jackson Bend: The son Hear No Evil won five straight at Calder, where he swept the three-race Florida Stallion Stakes series after finishing second in his debut. He was second in Gulfstream’s Holy Bull last month to the winning Winslow Homer, who suffered a cannon bone stress fracture. He’s 20-1.

Holy Bull Stakes Attracts Fairly Unknown Field

by Greg Melikov

posted on January 20, 2010 in General Discussion, Other Events | No Comments >>

I saw my first Holy Bull Stakes when it was called the Preview Stakes in the early 1990s. I especially remember the ‘94 renewal when Go for Gin defeated Halo’s Image and ran the fastest time for 14 of the races staged at 1 1/16 miles – 1:41 3/5.

Holy Bull swallowed his palate and finished off the board. But the loser had surgery and bounced back in the Florida Derby, winning by 5 3/4 lengths, while Go for Gin was fourth.

The Gulfstream Park race might have been called the Go for Gin after he captured the 120th Kentucky Derby while Holy Bull was finishing 12th after breaking slowly, being carried very wide in the slop and tiring badly.

After missing the remaining two legs of the Triple Crown in which Go for Gin was the runner-up, Holy Bull reeled off five consecutive victories in graded stakes, earning top 3-year-old honors and Horse of the Year.

Saturday’s 21st renewal, shortened to a mile from 1 1/8 miles, has attracted seven starters while as many as three more might run.

However, the trainers are better known than the 3-year-olds in this Grade 3 worth $150,000. Two did run in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but finished off the board.

Rick Sacco’s Piscitelli set the pace on Nov. 7 at Santa Anita before fading to fourth beaten three-quarters of a length. Todd Pletcher’s Aikenite was steadied in mid-stretch and ended up fifth another 1 3/4 lengths back.

Piscitelli, who broke his maiden at a mile last summer, worked five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 at Gulfstream’s Palm Meadows training facility on Jan. 15. The son of Victory Gallop galloped out six furlongs in 1:12 3/5 with his BC rider Kent Desormeaux aboard.

Aikenite, who also broke his maiden last summer at seven furlongs, posted a bullet work of 59 4/5 handily for five furlongs at Palm Meadows on Sunday. Jockey Alan Garcia gives way to John Velazquez who rode the son of Yes It’s True in his winning debut at Saratoga.

However, the likely favorite will be Nick Zito’s Jackson Bend, with six victories and a second at Calder Race Course where he swept the Florida Stallion Stakes three-race series.

The son Hear No Evil, a four-time stakes winner with five straight wins, went five furlongs in a bullet 59 1/5 at Palm Meadows last Saturday.

Others slated to go:

Richard Dutrow’s Homeboykris, winner of the Champagne Stakes with Edgar Prado in the irons at a mile last fall at Belmont. The son of Roman Ruler breezed four furlongs in 48 1/5 at Gulfstream on Tuesday.

Richard Violette’s Litigation Risk, who broke his maiden last fall at Belmont, breezed five furlongs on a good Palm Meadows surface in 1:03 1/5 on Monday. His sire Closing Argument won the Holy Bull in ‘05.

Marty Wolfson’s Thank U Philippe, who broke his maiden at Calder where he was in the money four of six times, was runner up to Jackson Bend in the Florida Stallion’s In Reality. The son of Proud Accolade was runner-up to Eskendereya in a Gulfstream allowance contest Jan. 7.

Anthony Dutrow’s Winslow Homer is seeking his third consecutive triumph after a third-place finish. The son of Unbridled’s Song breezed four furlongs in 50 1/5 on a good track at Palm Meadows Sunday.

Three possible starters include Michael Trombetta’s Wild Lime, with two victories in four sprints all at different tracks. The son of Limehouse breezed four furlongs in 49 seconds at Calder on Sunday.

What’s a Bettor to Do? So Many Exotic Ways to Go

by Greg Melikov

posted on December 17, 2009 in Educational Articles, Handicapping | 2 Comments >>

There are so many types of exotic bets available to horseplayers nowadays that novices are often confused about how to wager.

I remember back when the racetracks I visited at an early age offered only one exotic wager – the daily double. Unlike today, that bet only included the first and second races.

One of my favorite exotic wagers is the Pick 3 for several reasons:

Studies illustrate betting a win parlay covering the three races in a Pick 3 usually pays less than the exotic ticket including the same horses.

The probability of picking winners in three straight contests, depending on the races, is often higher than hitting your favorite exotic wagers in the same set of races.

I always look to single a horse in one of the races, but not a favorite for obvious reasons.

The worst payoffs occur when an odds-on horse captures any of the Pick 3 races or low-priced choices score in two races despite a longshot taking the other contest.

One of the more profitable scenarios transpires when you can identify and beat weak favorites in the first two legs because bettors love to be alive going into the third race and often include those horses.

If you can get the better of the favorite in the first and second legs, you will realize a nice return even if the betting public’s choice captures the final leg.

Naturally, the best returns occur when favorites fail to win any of the races, but excellent payoffs happen when second choices triumph in combination with medium-priced horses.

Combinations of favorites and non-favorites in the Pick 3 can be profitable, but a blend of medium-priced winners often pays more than they should. Good payoffs also result when two of the races appear wide open and lack heavy favorites.

I always look for a horse I feel the public won’t warm up to and I honestly give a good chance of winning the race at a nice price.

Figuring the cost of your Pick 3 isn’t difficult – just multiply the number of selections in each race by the amount bet. For example, 3 x 2 x 1 by a $2 wager is $12.

And remember that while some tracks refund parts of a ticket when there’s scratch in the first leg, if your top selection in the second or third leg doesn’t run, you usually you end up with the post time favorite.

Here are some tips that will save you to time and money:

Don’t waste your dough on low-odds favorites in all three legs because the reward isn’t worth the risk.

Spread out your Pick 3 with multiple tickets.

Don’t be afraid of adding a horse on the bubble because that’s usually the one that beats you.

Go ahead and select second and third favorites in a leg or two, but include some longshots, too.

Take advantage of the $1 wheel because that doubles your betting chances and makes it affordable to include more horses without having to spend a bundle.