Where there were yearlings romping in fields a few years ago, there were great hopes on many farms. As the managers watched with owners, entries were sent in to register the hopeful runner. The plans were made for that first Saturday in May.
I think we will hear of some good works. Look for runners that won, or broke their maiden, over the Churchill surface. The composition itself doesn’t change much from year to year, and you know what to expect. That is the good news portion. You would need a huge crystal ball to predict who will sizzle and shine. But, you can count on some runner that was on your “average” list to start blazing.
Bad new: You will hear of that hopeful that didn’t take to the track, or the poly runner that didn’t turn in a great morning work. It never fails, and no matter which runner, it always leaves us scratching our heads. They looked so good, and now the chase is over.
I feel that we will hear of a major defection. As handicappers, it never shocks us but it is a time where we will wonder what could have happened.
Jockey’s can be on full alert as some will get the door, and others will get the opportunity. Once again, this always happens. But this year, the rider selection has not been filing out as I expected. This week will answer many questions.
So, what to look for ?
- Solid works over the track, or winning effort in the past at CD
- At least three races this year, and a two-year-old season
- A G-1, or G-2 race with a solid effort, or good excuse for their last effort
- Good barn notes about how they are acting overall
Please keep in mind that this has been the wettest April in Kentucky history! Many trainers are waiting to ship and some are staying at Keeneland. I want a horse a that stays where he will run. Who’s to say it won’t be a quagmire on Derby day? Who says it won’t be cuppy or hard? I like it when they set up camp and get used to the settings. It gives me confidence to see this, and the trip from Keeneland is short. The only excuse is one where a horse has won over the CD surface and they stay in Lexington to train and keep tight over the oval. Just one last thing, I am a believer in a good morning work. Wherever they train, look for that 3f
or 4f breeze. I like to see at least one more good blowout before the big dance.