Archive for the ‘Educational Articles’ Category

What’s a Bettor to Do? So Many Exotic Ways to Go

by Greg Melikov

posted on December 17, 2009 in Educational Articles, Handicapping | 2 Comments >>

There are so many types of exotic bets available to horseplayers nowadays that novices are often confused about how to wager.

I remember back when the racetracks I visited at an early age offered only one exotic wager – the daily double. Unlike today, that bet only included the first and second races.

One of my favorite exotic wagers is the Pick 3 for several reasons:

Studies illustrate betting a win parlay covering the three races in a Pick 3 usually pays less than the exotic ticket including the same horses.

The probability of picking winners in three straight contests, depending on the races, is often higher than hitting your favorite exotic wagers in the same set of races.

I always look to single a horse in one of the races, but not a favorite for obvious reasons.

The worst payoffs occur when an odds-on horse captures any of the Pick 3 races or low-priced choices score in two races despite a longshot taking the other contest.

One of the more profitable scenarios transpires when you can identify and beat weak favorites in the first two legs because bettors love to be alive going into the third race and often include those horses.

If you can get the better of the favorite in the first and second legs, you will realize a nice return even if the betting public’s choice captures the final leg.

Naturally, the best returns occur when favorites fail to win any of the races, but excellent payoffs happen when second choices triumph in combination with medium-priced horses.

Combinations of favorites and non-favorites in the Pick 3 can be profitable, but a blend of medium-priced winners often pays more than they should. Good payoffs also result when two of the races appear wide open and lack heavy favorites.

I always look for a horse I feel the public won’t warm up to and I honestly give a good chance of winning the race at a nice price.

Figuring the cost of your Pick 3 isn’t difficult – just multiply the number of selections in each race by the amount bet. For example, 3 x 2 x 1 by a $2 wager is $12.

And remember that while some tracks refund parts of a ticket when there’s scratch in the first leg, if your top selection in the second or third leg doesn’t run, you usually you end up with the post time favorite.

Here are some tips that will save you to time and money:

Don’t waste your dough on low-odds favorites in all three legs because the reward isn’t worth the risk.

Spread out your Pick 3 with multiple tickets.

Don’t be afraid of adding a horse on the bubble because that’s usually the one that beats you.

Go ahead and select second and third favorites in a leg or two, but include some longshots, too.

Take advantage of the $1 wheel because that doubles your betting chances and makes it affordable to include more horses without having to spend a bundle.

Turfway Tips

by Ed Meyer

posted on December 2, 2009 in Educational Articles, Handicapping, Help/Educational Articles | 2 Comments >>

If you want the inside scoop on what to look for, and what a player needs to have in hand, you are in the right place at the right time.  Just download your data, and take a look at these little nuggets.

There is no exact diagram or design for winning at Turfway Park. But here are a few tips that need to be examined to help you make your decisions.

Six furlong races – In my past experiences with the oval, I feel that you will want to stick with closers, or runners that have an ability to rate and pounce down the lane. I would not shy away from the outside posts. They are as even as the inside, and they have an advantage at times. The poly track is a flat surface. There is no crown or banked area as horses head into the turn. Pay close attention to closers from the back of the pack. Silky Sullivan would have loved this oval.

Six and a half panels – Once again, stalkers and closers rule the day. Don’t be afraid to watch for those at the back of the pack. I won’t say that some will go wire to wire, but the percentages lay with the patient closers.

Five and a half races – The rule holds even more …. Suffice it to say, the back of the pack can be the place to be.

One mile to a mile and a sixteenth – These races play more to front end runners, and those who just lay off. Funny thing, the longer they go, the better the speed.

Look for shippers from Keeneland, Churchill, and Hawthorne. No matter where the Chicago horses go, they run very well… Pay close attention to those who get a trip over the track, or who have been working at Keeneland or Turfway. They are made up of the same surface.

Riders that warrant a big look are:

John Court – He can ride tall in the saddle against this crew. He used to torture them at Ellis Park.

John McKee – This young lad always looks good in the saddle.  Many times he has been compared to Pat Day.

Israel Ocampo – This fella’ looks good in the saddle. He has never really gotten the quality of horses to show his ability, but now he will. Look for him on speed runners. He loves a quick break.

Leandro Goncalves – This is going to be my best bet of the meet.  Barring any injuries, he is very talented. This should be his meet. He had one of toughest upbringings as a child. But, he is as kind and happy as one could be. He is young, energetic, and patient. Add them up, and you have a contender.

So, here it is. The best place to get your data, and a little inside info from playing the oval on a regular basis. I sure hope you get a chance to wager on a few races, and be sure to tune in this week to our Internet show as we will have Turfway Park President Bob Elliston as our special guest.

Enjoy the winter, and spring will be here before you know it……

Racing – 101

by Ed Meyer

posted on August 3, 2009 in Educational Articles, General Discussion | No Comments >>

From time to time, we need a little refresher course on how to get to cashing tickets. For the new player, welcome to the club. For the seasoned pro, a little catch-up never hurts.

We get tied up with exotic wagering and sometimes leave money on the table. I had friend at a handicapping contest that bet a 25-1 shot in the contest, but forgot to bet $2 to win and place in cash. I know, nobody gets rich… But it does add up at the end of the day… It won, and he didn’t…

For new players, win-place-show wagers can get you started. It is a great way to get in the game cheap. I would use this as guideline. When betting 2-1 or under, do not bet it to place or show unless it is a strong entry. For runners over 5-1, I would make a small bet to place with your win wager. If your runner is over 20-1, I would have an equal amount across the board. Trust me, if it runs 3rd it will pay $8.00 or better.

Create parlays. I like to make nice place parlays when I am busy during the week. I usually do this when I do not have a great deal of time to handicap.  I would advise always being prepared, and download your data. You may find a nice horse that WinningPonies has ranked second or third, that looks sweet at the windows. I am a $200 winner today just by making four place wagers. I did have a nice $6.30 winner to get me started, and I kept rolling the wager.

So, don’t leave money on the table. I’d hate to think you did not prepare to win by not doing your homework. Or, you can just plan your money management, and let WinningPonies take the guesswork out of your plans.

Good luck!

Follow The Money

by Ed Meyer

posted on July 20, 2009 in Educational Articles, General Discussion | No Comments >>

If you want to find the source of the fountain, just follow the stream. In this case, if you seek hidden value, just follow the money.

I have always watched the pools closely. Just because a runner is short, does not exclude him from use in the exotic pools. A horse could be 4-5 in the win pool, but could actually be 3-1 or better in the Pick-3 or Pick-4 pools. Some smaller circuits can be swayed by a few hundred dollars. Just watch this trend, and go ahead and press forward with exotic wagers.

The telltale sign of a solid bet favorite, is seeing the horse bet heavily in all W-P-S pools. Remember, that a few hundred bucks can sway the pools early in the week. Don’t even hesitate for a moment from playing the gimmicks. You may even find more value.

Learn to tab up what a parlay would pay, versus the exotic payout. My friend the other day said he had a $35 DD, and the parlay figures $14. Go figure… In the old days, many of the players could tell you what you would get before the official sign lit up. It’s just simple math, no algebra test. Just keep your eyes peeled.

The overall goal is to make you a better player. Every little piece of the puzzle, combined with the right handicapping material, can make you a wagering weapon. So don’t lose the faith, and keep watching the tote board. You may get a pleasant surprise….

Long Strange Trip It Has Been

by Ed Meyer

posted on July 20, 2009 in Educational Articles, Handicapping | No Comments >>

I watch the races, mainly Kentucky, New York, and the track where I work. Any more tracks, and they wouldn’t get much out of me at the end of the day, and I would start seeing false information.

First, keep track with notes about track biases. This combined with the right info can be deadly. Know when the rail is dead. Know when a sealed track turns into a speed conveyor belt to the winner’s circle. These can be factors that do half the work for you. For those that do not remember the past, you may just miss out on a big fat score….

Also note cases where a horse was taken up by a rider. You see more apprentice riders taking up and yanking a runner into submission. This can be a fact to jot down. You can kill a runners spirit by having a heavy hand in the irons. Just watch the handling, and take notes.

Poor starts also merit a line or two. Also, don’t forget to write down how a runner finished out past the wire. Many will ride out a little longer than the finish, and this is a nice sign. One race equals three works, according to an old trainer pal. He loves to see them go past the wire under full steam. Watch and see if they best the winner right past the wire. They just ran out of ground, and you can bet they won’t next time…

Take notes, as your professor once told you. Who better than you to jot down a memory, especially if a wager was tied up with it. Just don’t get too excited and have a comment for each horse every race.  Less is more when it comes to trip handicapping.

The Ups and Downs of Wagers

by Ed Meyer

posted on April 20, 2009 in Educational Articles, General Discussion | 1 Comment >>

I was walking around the apron on opening day at a local track. It was beautiful, and I saw more people soaking up the sun than on the beach. I also ran into a group of gents who had a question about the odds when the horses broke from the gate.

There was a group of six friends who had been doing this rite of spring for most of their lives. They were glad to see me again, and pulled me aside and wanted me to answer a question for them.

Well, post time was drawing near (as the announcer brought to everyone’s attention). It was at this time when they all started pointing and asking me to watch the tote board, and not blink.

The bell rang, and the horses sprinted away. The tote board flashed one last time, and at that time they all started screaming about the odds on #5. He was just 4-1, and now he is 5-2! Why in the world would this happen?! There is not that much money bet here at the last click… Well, that part they were right about. It was now I had to bring the news of why…

I explained how tracks make money compared to days before simulcasting. They all said they liked it more back then, and wished it would go back.. Well, that may be a little tough to put back in the box I explained. I began with a simple 80/20 rule. That 20% was bet on track, and 80% comes from simulcast handle.

They were all ears now, especially since the five horse won for all of them. The track offers the product out to over 500 outlets around the world. People bet during time allotted, and the final drop of off-track monies comes rolling in from all-sources as they break from the gate. So you can be 10-1 when they load, and be 8-1 when they are turning for home. This is the influx of all of the money.

They all seemed to understand, and still liked the old days. But, they understood that the giant conspiracy had been put to rest. That big drop in odds can be like a rock in the river. But, the monies bet from around the globe get a final tally just as they break. Sometimes you go up in odds, stay the same, or drop a bit. But all of the wagering is heavily watched and regulated.

Original Punters

by Ed Meyer

posted on February 27, 2009 in Educational Articles, General Discussion | No Comments >>

When you read about the history of the first real horse players, a few names stand out that had nerves of steel, and a love of the game.

If you haven’t heard of Pittsburgh Phil, you must have live in a cave. Many would call him the founding father of horse players. In February 1905, that all came to an end. The Utica Sunday Journal picked up a story from The New York Sun that his health was failing. His nervous system had been shattered by intense strain and worry about his endeavors.

He was one who never gave into feelings. He was as cool as a cucumber. This is the way of the big timers. They didn’t yell when they won, or cry when they lost. He made wagers at the time that would translate into six digit bets today.  He always had an edge, and as with many men of the wagering world, this is what makes the good into great.

Michael and Phil Dwyer were former butchers in New York. They became known for their big money stables, and they won the Belmont Stakes five times. They were also instrumental in building Gravesend Race Track in Coney Island.

Their betting stories became legendary. One story told of how Dwyer once made a wager of $40,000 on one of his famous racehorses and lost. He saw that his runner was bested in the last jump and cooly remarked: “That was a fast run race.” – A note, $40,000 in 1900 equates to $975,000 today.

Just as Pittsburgh Phil, his cool and calm demeanor may have been what killed him.  The strain of keeping cool under the strain of such weight takes its toll on anyone.

In 1916, a horse called George Smith won the Kentucky Derby. That was Pittsburgh Phil’s birth name. The Maxims of Pittsburgh Phil were written, and still remain in print over a hundred years later.

New York racing honored the Dwyer brothers when they renamed the Brooklyn handicap the Dwyer in 1918.

The Fallen

by Ed Meyer

posted on January 24, 2009 in Educational Articles, General Discussion | No Comments >>

When Bay Meadows closed for good last summer, leaving Northern California with only one major Thoroughbred racing venue (Golden Gate Fields), many wondered how such a thing could happen. Bay Meadows, after all, had been a fixture in California horse racing for more than 70 years and was the longest continually operating Thoroughbred track in California.

In Southern California, there is a real possibility that Hollywood Park will shutter its doors for good in the near future, and once again California race fans are wondering what this all means for the future of Thoroughbred racing.

A broad historical perspective reveals that these are certainly not the first great Thoroughbred racetracks to disappear and suggests that they are not likely to be the last.

Some of the first Thoroughbred racetracks in the country flourished in New York before the turn of the 20th century; yet few people even remember their names today: Jerome Park, Morris Park, Gravesend, Sheepshead Bay. Even earlier in the 19th century, breeding and racing were showcased in the Bluegrass region of Kentucky at tracks such as the Kentucky Association.

Many other racing centers in the United States, including Maryland, New Jersey, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Rhode Island, Nebraska and California, saw the rise and decline of important racetracks during the last two centuries. Here is a list of a few of them that are gone but hopefully not completely forgotten:

Aksarben (1920 – 1995), Omaha, NE
Aksarben (Nebraska spelled backwards) was an indoor arena and horse racing complex. In the mid-1980’s, Aksarben was 10th in the nation in racetrack attendance. Triple Crown winner Omaha was buried at the track’s Circle of Champions following his death in 1959. After the closure of the racetrack, Horsemen’s Park, a simulcast facility, was opened in Omaha in 1998.

Bowie Race Track (1914 – 1985), Bowie, MD
At one time, the flourishing track was served by the now defunct WB & A Railroad, which brought race fans from New York and Philadelphia. The track still exists as a Thoroughbred training center.

Cumberland Race Track (1924 – 1961), Cumberland, MD
Also known as the Fairgo Racetrack, it was located at what is now the Allegany County Fairgrounds. Cumberland was the first half-mile track in the state of Maryland and was regarded as one of the most beautiful racetracks in the state. It formed part of the Maryland horse racing circuit that included Timonium and Marlboro racetracks. Today the track is used for automobile racing.

Garden State Park (1942 – 2001), Delaware Township, NJ
Known as “the Garden,” in its heyday, Garden State hosted some of the finest Thoroughbred racing in the nation, and legendary horses who competed there included Whirlaway, Citation and Secretariat. With Atlantic City Race Course and Monmouth Park, it was an integral part of what was called the “Golden Triangle” of New Jersey racing. The original grandstand, destroyed by fire in 1977, was rebuilt and the track reopened in 1985, just in time for Spend A Buck to win the Jersey Derby. The grandstand was demolished in 2003 to make room for a mixed-use town center development.

Gravesend Race Track (1887 – 1910), Coney Island, NY
Gravesend was built by the Brooklyn Jockey Club with the backing of wealthy horse owners, the Dwyer brothers. Among the major stakes launched at the track were the Astoria Stakes, Brooklyn Handicap, and Gazelle Handicap. From 1894 through 1908, the track hosted the Preakness Stakes. When New York outlawed racetrack betting in 1910, the facility was closed, and the land was sold to real estate developers in 1920.

Havre de Grace Racetrack (1912 – 1950), Havre de Grace, MD
Nicknamed “The Graw,” it was host to one of the most important races in the Northeast, the Havre de Grace Handicap. In 1920, Man o’ War won the Potomac Handicap at Havre de Grace. In 1936, his son War Admiral won his first race there. Faced with competition from nearby Garden State Park and Delaware Park, Havre de Grace was sold in 1951 to Alfred G. Vanderbilt II, owner of Pimlico Race Course, and Morris Schapiro of Laurel Park, who closed the facility and transferred its racing dates to their own tracks.

Hialeah Park (1921 – 2001), Hialeah, FL
Hileah Park in Hialeah, Florida, is currently at the center of a battle for historical preservation, and is listed on the National Register of Historic Places. Its original grandstand was severely damaged by a hurricane in 1926 and subsequently rebuilt in 1930, at which time the famous infield lake was installed and stocked with flamingos. Among its famous races were the Flamingo Stakes and Widener Handicap. In 1987, the horse racing movie Let It Ride with Richard Dreyfuss was filmed at Hialeah Park.

Horses to Watch

by Ed Meyer

posted on September 17, 2008 in Educational Articles, Handicapping | 2 Comments >>

So many times we see a race that we really liked. Or, it could be the 6th race at Whatever Park where your pony gets shut off but finishes up nicely. I tried in vain to keep up on my horses to play list, but things get in the way. Work, life, and everything in between.

So I started keeping a list in pocket. I have a small memo book to look cool, but I don’t think it is working. But the big piece of the puzzle, it keeps me focused on going home and going to one of the many FREE sites that catalog your runners. Yes, you heard it right. FREE! All that you have to do is commit yourself to spend a few minutes and type in a couple of comment lines.

After this painless process, you will receive all workouts, entries of this runner, and date of their next race 48 hrs prior. You have just kicked up your game to the semi-pro ranks no matter what your level. For years, trip handicapping was the way to follow your horses. No more smatterings of paper, cocktail napkins, or scraps that get thrown away. To have a comment line that describes the race is helpful when your notice comes via email.

Funny thing. I get an email, and all of a sudden that race comes flooding back to me… I forgot three weeks ago about Chewy Slew, but here he is again and that horrible rider has been replaced. Now, I have a plan. I suggest you keep up on your lists, and purge them after every race. This allows you to keep up to date data on recent trip horses to take note.

Nothing replaces good old fashioned handicapping. But to have your “special’ ponies sent to you in email form takes out all of the work. The day has come. Big Brother finally is doing us a favor.

Handicapping 101

by Ed Meyer

posted on September 16, 2008 in Educational Articles, General Discussion, Handicapping | No Comments >>

Everyone needs a little brush-up from time to time. It is only those who are mad at their money, who make no attempt to sharpen their skills. Here are a couple reminders to add to your checklist:

1. Take a look at horses dropping in class. This can be an effective way to gauge value. The better runners, and those fresh off a claim climbing the ladder, should be on your radar screen. Also, take a second look at cheaper claimers making a drop in class. Usually the lesser runners are looking for a softer spot to score. Dropping can be a positive, but can also be a negative note depending on the class level. You can find this on your WinningPonies.com selection form. Have your eyes peeled for this move.

2. Pay attention to the jockey and trainer stats. They say the numbers don’t lie, and over 1/3 of the races are won by the top ten trainers at a meet. This info is worth its weight in gold, and to have a hot hand in the irons for a solid barn, can be a direct line to the windows to cash in big.

3. Workouts: The quick ones; long ones; recent works; all merit a long look. All athletes play as they have been practicing. That last gallop could add a little more gas in the tank, and a runner may be prepping for that big race, and need a long work to get that extra wind in a sprint.

All of these factors can be found on WinningPonies.com, and are flakes of gold. So polish up your game from time to time. Utilize your data to the fullest and always look for the fresh approach. It is the mark of the improving player.