Free Churchill Selections – 7/4/2011

by Ed Meyer

posted on July 4, 2011 in Free Picks and Tips | No Comments >>

Churchill DownsNothing like a little sparkle to light up the action. It should be hot and muggy in most places, and Mother Nature can toss in some showers just to make things interesting. You will want to stay close to your change of track condition selector, and PRESTO –  a new set of EZ-Win forms to make your holiday extra special.

Churchill Downs – Monday

Rain is in the forecast, and some of those may be wickedly strong. I think it is safe to assume there will be some moisture to the track.

Race #4 – #4 Henny’s Hurricane (3-1)

3/3 ITM at Churchill Downs. Ken McPeek with Leparoux in the saddle. Split horses soundly last out, and goes from 7f – 1 1/16. 1/1 on an off track, and rain is coming to Louisville. A closer that should be better with extra ground to run. I see a stalking effort, and 2/2 ITM going this distance. Nice price, and great connections.

Race #5 – #8 Valid Citizen (3-1)

Talk about a roll…. This horse is 3-for-3 this meet. He is trained by Matt Kordenbrock, who does well with his modest stable. 5/8 ITM at CD, and I can see a nice stalking trip with red-hot Lanerie in the irons. Did I mention he enjoys the off-going? 3/3 ITM in the goo… His chances look nice, and a top notch rider for a small outfit has to be the clue. Kordenbrock is a good horseman, and he shoots for a sweep of his starts at CD.

Race #8 – #3 Burban (5-2)

Kenneally brings this filly ready. She made a million dollar middle move last out. I like the fact she tried for the lead, and came up just a bit short. She has to deal with a half furlong less, and Julien is the go-to-guy for this barn (30%). Bred to enjoy the mud with her sire tossing out 26% winners in the slop.

Race #10 – #4 El Caballo (9-2)

Lanerie up on this son of El Corredor. 2/3 at CD ITM, and looks to enjoy a turf course with some give to it. Add in that he likes Louisville, and you might get a better price than the morning line intends.

Best of luck and have a Happy Fourth of July!

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