The games will be starting, and the bevy of action is non-stop. It was kinda’ like this past Saturday. But, we all have the Monday hangover with not many of the marquee tracks to play. I like to find value where I can, and start thinking about going to a handicapping contest on Friday. I am counting the days, and in the meantime. I will try and score a few bucks.

Beulah Park

Race #1 – #6 – Pure Stimulus (5-2).

Yuri Yaranga is the pilot for Doug O. Neill. They are winning 22% and 40%, respectively. They make a duo record at 50%, and 100% ITM at Beulah. Shipper from Penn National, and O’Neill wins 18% with his shippers. Maiden claiming to maiden special weight yields a 41% ITM move. The rider is 22% going 6 panels, and 52% ITM. They say the numbers don’t lie, and here they are in black and white. I think 5/2 would be a square price, and you may want to watch the tote board for others that would fit in exotics.

Race #5 – #3 – Lord Carmen (7-2).

Edgar Paucar (18%) up for Charlie Lawson (20%). Jeff Perrin, Paucar’s agent, has been booking his mounts from Australia, as he has been visiting family down under. The runner makes a 2nd start for Lawson and he wins 19%. Was beaten favorite last out, and that is a players’ angle. Lawson wins 26% and 62% ITM. He is 4/6 ITM, if the track comes up gooey, as expected. 2nd start after shipping in from Hawthorne. Last out, he was 5-wide and rolling, and the trip over should benefit him well. Go with confidence as Lawson has been a major player on the Ohio circuit forever.

What are ya’ waiting for?  I see two solid plays that you may want to measure up against the tier levels to see where they lay. I find value to be had on some small circuits, and as players, we have to take whatever we find. This makes for a g0od start to the week.

Good luck!

At this moment, I am watching Gulfstream Park run in a quagmire. Now, that is likely to change by the morning, and now more than ever, I would advise you to check the weather and change the track condition tab if needed. But, I digress… I do like some plays on the Saturday card.  Funny thing happens on the way to window. When the big races come out, we make our way to windows.

Tampa Bay

Race #11 – The Tampa Bay Derby

This race is a burrito of options. At first glance, you would love #6 Super Saver, who will offer low odds. That is fine, and he has been bred to enjoy the off-going. I see him to be vulnerable. I don’t want the small odds here. I will wait until he runs at Churchill, and I should do better at the window.

Go one more post out, and I think you have the winner. #7 Odysseus looks very good to me.  Rajiv Maragh is in the saddle for Thom Albertrani. He is winning at 20% at TBD, and Maragh is 1/1 with wins as a ship-in rider. Triple Crown nominated, and was purchased for $250,000 at the Ocala sale. Third time off a layoff, and getting better with each effort. OC – 75,000 is a very tough level. He romped by 15, and had more in the tank. On the morning line he is 7-2, and I see this or more when the gates break. Super Saver looks the real deal, and I think if all goes well, we will be seeing him the first Saturday in May.

Maragh is an underrated rider, and he just had a milestone victory of win number 1,000. Give him time, and you will see a fine career. He sits very well in the saddle, and you will always get your money’s worth when he rides.

This is not the biggest upset in the history of racing if he wins, but he looks good. I think many stables do not want to open up peak too soon. S.S. is a nice animal, but I am hoping to see another strut his stuff to get his picture taken.

I would have had a few Gulfstream runners for you, but after they canceled, I am waiting and watching. Be sure to utilize the change of track condition tab before you download your data. The track crew is the best in the world, and who knows what Mother Nature holds. I would watch and wait, and be sure to check your scratches as WinningPonies is a one-stop shop for all of your information.

Proceed with caution, and enjoy the day of races. Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta are running, and you will want to download data to make your multi-race exotics one-step smaller. It would be plain bad if you rooted against the gals. I want to see them hook-up for $5 million in the Apple Blossom, and Saturday kicks it all off. So, buckle up and get ready. A big day is heading your way.

Good luck!

How many times have we heard this? If we don’t bring it, we can’t sing it. The praises of winning that is … Hopefully, you can take these few observations and parlay them into a sweet Sunday.

Aqueduct

Race #1 – #5 – Wicked Diva (7-5).

Ramon Dominguez is in the saddle, and that answers many questions. Mike Hushion is the trainer, and they roll at a staggering 67% win clip, and a hot 83% ITM. Impressive winner at 5 1/2 f, and it was against state-bred maidens. Ramon wins 25% with his sprinters, and looks to be in a perfect spot. I could go on and on, but if you need to be talked into Dominguez outside of the details, you will get beat more times than not. He is really special, and history will be kind to him as his career goes forward.

Race #4 – #5 – Tomorrows Roses (5-1).

Luzzi is in the irons, and Richard Violette in the role of conditioner. 2nd off of the layoff is a great player’s angle, and 3/6 ITM at the “Big A.” A nice stalker, who was roused down the lane last out. Jock change from Gabe Saez to Mike Luzzi, and he rode this mount many times in the past. I like the price, and Luzzi always gives a solid effort.

Race #8 – #6 – Understatement (8-5).

David Cohen is between the ears, and Todd Pletcher is the trainer. He is heading for the year that people tend to talk about for years to come. 1/1 ITM at the distance. Uncontested last out, and looks to enjoy the oval. Been working well in the morning, and that is a very good sign of being regular. Cohen is very underrated, and Pletcher needs no pitch. I think this may be his year in a big way.  Add them together, and they win 23%, and 54% ITM.  I would look for a repeat.

Enjoy the sunshine, and know that spring is coming quickly.

Good luck!

Columbus offers some action on Tuesdays. I admit that the races are unique, and most of these runners are targeted to Beulah for one reason or another. Either way, just take a look at these short prices and take what you can get. There is a reason that they are short priced. They just plain and simple stand out.

Race #2 – #6 – Slewbiscuit – (5-2).

Ocatavio Reyes has the call for Ivan Vasquez. The runner happens to be a bit of a horse-for-the-course, 12 /19. Add in that he is 5/8 at the distance ITM, and you have a nice look. 2nd off a layoff, and no matter what level, I love this angle. So does the trainer, who is 38% ITM on this move. Won his last race, and that yields a 21% clip. 3rd off of the Turfway poly, and we have ourselves a player. I like this gelding, and he may offer some action.

Race #5 – #2 – The Mayor – (2-1).

Dean “The Dream” Sarvis in the irons for Dougie Cowans. They win 52% together, and are a staggering 81% ITM as a team. I should stop right there, as if you can beat that. Go ahead and get it… Both are good guys, and they try very hard at any track. 1/1 at Beulah, and 1/1 at the distance. 2nd off New York’s inner track, exits off a win. Stretches out from 6 panels to a flat mile.  I look for a pace dictation, and a catch me if you can outlook.

Race #6 – #1 – Lord Carmen – (9-5).

Edgar Paucar will have long done his routine by the time this race runs. That would be a series of yoga-like moves and mental stretching. Trained by the “Silver Fox” Charlie Lawson. They are 24% and 48% ITM as a team. Drops down a class, and that gives the trainer a 24% edge over the company. He ships in to win 20%, and he heads in from Chicago. I don’t have a clue, but all horses that have galloped around Hawthorne have gone on to do better. 18 days since his last race, and Lawson has the red-hot rail, where 25% have won on the hoop.

Good luck!

All of my pals are arguing over the Derby trail. They are already starting to get huffy over seeing glimpses of the big winner. Just be patient my boys. It is not time yet….

When we had Blood Horse Editor Tom LaMarra on our show, he said : “I like to wait until the last minute to make my final decisions.” I think if you are betting a few ducats on the Future Book, then speculate. If not, just take a breath. I am trying, and it gets harder every year. I have noticed that I do the best when I wait and take the majority of races in fully. It seems that if I start over-thinking, down the tubes I will go.

Here are a few that I have seen that deserve a thought at this point:

Rule - Pletcher is the trainer, and he is loaded this year. Didn’t we say that same thing in past years? His runner is versatile and runs on everything but blacktop and broken glass. It would not surprise me to see him appear at the $500,000 Lane’s End Stakes at Turfway Park, for a soft spot at a big pot.

Eskenderya – The “Todd-Squad” once again. Big winner in Florida, and you have to start thinking after that 8 – plus length victory, that we would see him down the road….

Super Saver - This one must be hot. My dad loves him! Even though he keeps calling him Super Baby, he looks good. Wait until he goes to New York, before buying your stock. I just hope Calvin Borel gets the mount. I think he would fit just fine.

Eightyfiveinafifty – I need one more race before I keep or scrap. A 17 1/2 length victory makes me think that all of those million dollar offers could not have been wrong. Just let him heal and wait…….

One to watch for the long haul is Aikenite.  This may be a slow developer, and the extra time may bring him along at the right time. The way he wanted to run only gave me outside hope. This is a long shot hope at this time, and only time will tell.. We can always scratch him off the list later.

There it is. I am not ready to compile a list, and I am on a scouting mission. If I see something, you will know. For me, the longer I wait, the better I will do… The boys at WP have held their own over the years, and if you keep them in mind, I think you may be ahead of the game.

It appears the Run for the Roses is the Todd and Bob Show as in trainers Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert. Here are my Top 10 contenders for the Kentucky Derby from bottom to top Dave Letterman style:

Super Saver: One of the many Kentucky Derby hopefuls trained by Todd Pletcher. The son of Maria’s Mon has been training well, but is not scheduled to debut as a 3-year-old until next month. Next race: Gotham Stakes on March 6 at Aqueduct.

Drosselmeyer: His fourth place finish in the Risen Star wasn’t too bad, making up nearly 2 1/2 lengths in the stretch and losing by less than 1 3/4 lengths. It was the son of Golden Ballet’s second trip on dirt after winning in allowance company at Gulfstream. Next race: Louisiana Derby on March 27 at Fair Grounds.

Buddy’s Saint: Two race winning streak was snapped for son of Saint Liam, when he had a disastrous start in the Fountain of Youth. Jockey Jose Lezcano said right after his ninth place finish on Feb. 20: “The other horses came in like nothing (on the first turn). I was already in a spot, and they came in and killed my horse; put him into the rail.” Next race: Florida Derby on March 20 at Gulfstream.

Jackson Bend: Runner-up in Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth needs to pick it up in next outing. Last victory in a route came last year as a top 2-year-old at Calder. Three strikes and the son of Hear No Evil is out of the Top 10.  Next race: Florida Derby.

Dublin: Poor showing in his last race in November led to successful epiglottis surgery. The son of Afleet Alex came from far back in the Risen Star, after starting slowly and racing wide off the far turn, to make up 3 1/4 lengths in the stretch to finish second. He plainly ran out of ground in the 1 1/16-mile contest. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is also breathing easier: “The further the better for him. He’s a big, imposing individual with a long stride.”

Discreetly Mine: One of many Kentucky Derby hopefuls trained by Todd Pletcher that shows promise. This son of Mineshaft captured the Risen Star on the front end when no foe wanted the lead. Tactical speed is a plus as he progresses. Next race: Louisiana Derby.

Rule: This Pletcher trainee is a horse for all tracks. The son of Roman Ruler has won four in a row. His victories were on Belmont’s sweeping track, Delta Downs’ fast and sloppy surfaces and Tampa Bay Downs’ quirky oval. Next race: Undecided.

Conveyance: One of trainer Bob Baffert’s stars is unbeaten in four outings, following his three-quarters of a length triumph in the Southwest Stakes. Transition to dirt went smoothly, but one question remains for the son of Indian Charlie: Can he get 1 1/4 miles? Next race: UAE Derby in Dubai March 27, Wood Memorial at Aqueduct April 3, or Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn April 10.

Lookin at Lucky: Baffert’s pride and joy hasn’t debuted as a sophomore, but has worked well. Despite being considered the top dog going 5 for 6, including runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in a horrible trip, the son of Smart Strike has time to get fit. Only negative: not racing on dirt with only two Kentucky Derby preps likely. Next race: San Felipe at Santa Anita or Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 13.

Eskendereya: An impresive 8 1/2-length victory in the Fountain of Youth puts the Pletcher trainee at the top of the 3-year-old ladder. The son of Giant’s Causeway has tactical speed and can win just off the pace, like he did Feb. 20, or can come from a bit out of it to grind down his foes. He’s 3 for 3 on dirt. Next race: Florida Derby.

It is the “hump” day already. I personally hate the idea of looking at wishing away time, but look at it this way. The weekend is only a couple of days off and we are getting started with winners.

Rain is expected for the “Big A“, and we can look at some plays that may need to be hooked up with tier runners who hold a price. Some of these are not going to burn the barn down, but take what you can get….. Would you walk by $5.60 laying on the ground?  I thought not…..

Race #1 – #7 – Gimmeanotherwink – (2-1)

Channing Hill has the call for John Terranova, who is rolling at 26%. Together they make a 29% win rate and a 50% ITM call as winners.  2/2 at Aqueduct ITM, and that is a nice look. 1/1 over a track that is labeled as “off.” This is the 3rd off the layoff, and makes a stretch out to a mile from 6 panels. This barn moves at a 14% win rate, and 46% ITM on the distance change. There is a drop in class, and that only makes the runner more attractive.

Race #3 – #5 – Mt. Glttermore – (2-1).

Ramon Dominguez in the saddle for Gary Contessa, and they team up at 71% ITM. This is a 3rd off a layoff, and drops back in class. Checked at the break last out, makes a huge rider change, 3/3 on the soft track, and makes a drop in class as well. 2/2 ITM at Aqueduct, and has worked two bullets in a row coming into this heat. I think all systems are go!

Race #5 – #1 – Three in the Bag – (8-5).

C.C Lopez in the irons for Linda Rice, and they have a sweet 46% ITM record together. Been off since Saratoga, and is 9/12 at Aqueduct. 5/7 on the off going, and runs very well off of a break. Take a look at the last race where he was claimed for 25k from Anthony Dutrow. Today, he makes start for 16k…. 6/6 ITM at the distance, and if you go back almost one year to the day, he won by 4 lengths off a layoff.

Good luck!

I want to win every day, if at all possible. To start the week off in the right direction is good stuff. We are going to make a little trek to Columbus, Ohio (Beulah Park) and play some cheap claimers to the winner’s circle.

Race #2 – #10 – Worldbridge (4-1).

Yuri Yuraga is in the saddle for trainer Eric Reed.  They are winning 27% and 37% respectively. Team them up, and they win 60%, and have an 80% clip ITM. You gotta love that… This three-year-old seems to love the off going. He is 2/2 on the off going, and cuts back from 1 mile to six panels. Reed scores at 20% on this move. Rain is expected in the area, and all you have to do is hope that the price is not knocked down. The #10 hole may help, but he should be up close and pounce on the field as only Yuri can do…. Eric Reed is a dangerous man, and had a second place finish in the G-1 Alabama this year at Saratoga. He is head and shoulders above the crowd up there, and class will show today.

Race #6 – #7 – Favorite Valay (5-2).

Ramon Luna is in the irons for Raquel Castro, who is winning at 36%. He is making his third start off a layoff, and is 1/1 ITM at Beulah. This PA-bred can, and has, seen better competition.  2/3 over an off-surface and rain is expected in Ohio. Beaten favorite last out, and this trainer takes that pretty serious to come back and win 43%. There was a very nice mild rally last out, as I went back and watched the race replay. There will have to be some bit of pace to make the race, and Luna is equipped at getting them out the gate, as he used to ride quarter horses in Mexico as a youth. So, I would look for a better break, and stalk off the pace down the lane.

Sometimes you have to take what you get. I would dig deep and be sure to change the weather tab on Beulah to an off track. If the rain does not roll in, they have had about 3 feet of snow that is melting rapidly in Ohio.  Be sure to connect the dots, and get a piece of the multi-race gimmicks to spread out for maximum value.

Good luck!

Wednesday is a good day to get some action….  It is only a few more days until we hit the scene with stakes for New York, Kentucky, Florida, and Gulfstream Park. But, until then, let us build a bankroll and concentrate on the day…

Aqueduct – Race #1 – #2 – Linda’s Kisses (4-1).

Anna Napravnik has the call for Billy Badgett. They are ITM together at a nice rate of 24%. This runner is 2/4 ITM in New York, and is making a second run off a layoff for Badgett, who wins 24% on this move. He is dropping big time, and the blinkers come off. 2nd time off of a layoff and the barn hits 33% ITM with this change-up. Rosie wins 43% lately for Badgett, and is 1/1 at the 1- 70 distance. I like the look and the short term success may mean things are on the change.

2nd Race – #4 – Calvello – (5-2).

Channing Hill is the rider, and John Hertler is the conditioner. 2/3 ITM at Aqueduct, and makes a huge drop in class. This yields a 20% ITM for the Hertler barn, and possibly looks to keep going on this move. His runner is going from a sprint to a route, and Hertler wins at 29% ITM with maiden claimers.

Race #5 – #4 – Wicked Diva (9-5).

Ramon Dominguez is between the ears for trainer Mike Hushion. Dominguez and Hushion team up for a red-hot 60% win rate, and 80% ITM as a team. Today he gets first blinkers, and that usually lends for a bit more focus. Hushion wins at 19% on this equipment move, and is dropping into state-bred company. There was a late gain last out, and he is on the mark to show much better facing his own state brothers. This 4-year-old gal is primed to show her best, and this race gives her the edge. I have to like 9-5, even though you won’t get rich off the win end. But this does lead me to dig into the tier levels for other prices.

Good luck!

There is a bevy of solid racing going on as usual for this time of year. There is a great card in California that is being made up due to inclement weather, and Florida has big action on both coasts. So, buckle down and get your data early to get in the game. But, to make it that much sweeter, we have tossed in a couple that deserve a look before making final decisions.

Tampa Bay Downs – Race #10 – G-3 – Sam Davis Stakes

This race may be a factor in your Future Book Wagers.  It is a 1 1/16th, and it seems to me that more and more barns are heading to Tampa to try out their runners for bigger and better things to come.

#6 Uptowncharlybrown (2/1) looks to be double tough in here. You have the services of red-hot Daniel Centeno in the irons, and is 2/2 at TBD. There is plenty of speed to run at if the pace falls apart, and the rider knows the oval. Centeno and Alan Seewald are batting 29% together.

I am going to go away from this angle, and lean towards the rail for #1 Rule (8-5). John Velasquez for Todd Pletcher. Winner of G-3 Delta Jackpot in the slop, and this son of Roman Rule is 4/4 on a fast dirt track. I would look for an up close running style, and should draw off to get his dance card stamped.

Santa Anita – Race #6 -  G-2 – Robert B. Lewis S.

#2  Tiz Chrome (6/5) 2/2 with wins in a lifetime, and is 1/1 over a synthetic track. The son of Tiznow should show versatility. The stretch out to 1 1/16th from 6 1/2 panels, Bob Baffert a 21%  trainer, and Gomez is in the saddle, at a winning clip of 22%.

The works have shown well, and he is bred to run long on the dam side (Woodlawn Shadow). I see his speed and breeding being a big factor. It should be an asset down the lane, and I would use him with #1 Dave in Dixie, and #3 American Lion.

There it is, and it is yours to take to the window. Be sure to check them against the tiers, and you can’t go wrong.

Good luck!