Don’t Drink the Kool-Aide

by Ed Meyer

posted on November 22, 2017 in Blogroll, General Discussion, Handicapping, Horse Racing, | No Comments >>

For some gamblers, excess is the drug of choice. – I call it a drug because it can have a hypnotic effect on your day at the races. Impulse plays, tap-dancing or just making a little bet to have some action. Know what I mean? – Think of it like pulling a slot machine handle one more time or buying a quick pick lottery ticket when you only went in to get gas. – That little excess bet can cost you more than you think.

My buddy makes about 10 of these per day. – He takes his $100 and had his 8-10 races pre-selected and sticks to his guns. Except for the “fun” bets where he makes a $5 win wager about 10 times a day. – For the record, he does very well and wagers are well thought out. That is except for his “wild shot” wagers where he bets a $5 on a longshot. “No harm. Just a few wild shots looking for a big score.”

When I asked him how many won he said maybe 1 or 2 a month. – Now for a man who has restraint and keeps himself on a $100 leash. – Now that can be enough for the type of wagers he is making. He is retired and likes to make $10 place bets and roll them over three times if he can keep them moving. – I told him he has a good shot at making money except for the $5 wild bets.

“Do you know if you go 0 for10 on your wild price bets you’re down $50 on the day from your bankroll?” – He looked at me like I was wrong and then it hit him. – “You make your betting plan and stick to it with precision. You have very good days, and a few times I have watched you have a shot at a sweet score from place bets. It’s when you make the impulse wagers that you squander half of your daily bankroll on shooting at the stars.” – “He smiled and said it goes against the purpose of doing my homework and creating a plan. Why would I just give it away for the sake of having action?” – That’s the Kool-Aide.

He said he was going to give it a thought and come up with a different plan. – Great idea. If you are losing $50 on impulse bets you have to make that back on your betting plan just to break even. – This is where many good handicappers lose on the day. They are double sharp and can really zero in on who to play. The train comes off the rails when an impulse bet or a long shot bet is made. – The best-made plans can hit the wall when you deviate from the plan.

I must admit I’m guilty of making these wagers from time-to-time and it always turns up sour. – When you drop back and think about making non-planned bets you are half way there to protecting your bankroll. – Just give it a think and I’m sure you’ll start paying attention.