Kentucky Derby 136 [Free Selection]

by Ed Meyer

posted on April 29, 2010 in Free Picks and Tips, Kentucky Derby | 13 Comments >>

2010 Kentucky Derby post positions and morning line odds

Post… Horse… Jock… Trainer… ML
1 Lookin At Lucky Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert 3-1
2 Ice Box Jose Lezcano Nick Zito 10-1
3 Noble’s Promise Willie Martinez Ken McPeek 12-1
4 Super Saver Calvin Borel Todd Pletcher 15-1
5 Line of David Rafael Bejarano John Sadler 30-1
6 Stately Victor Alan Garcia Mike Maker 30-1
7 American Lion David Flores Eoin Harty 30-1
8 Dean’s Kitten Robby Albarado Mike Maker 50-1
9 Make Music for Me Joel Rosario Alexis Barba 50-1
10 Paddy O’Prado Kent Desormeaux Dale Romans 20-1
Post… Horse… Jock… Trainer… ML
11 Devil May Care John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 10-1
12 Conveyance Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 12-1
13 Jackson Bend Mike Smith Nick Zito 15-1
14 Mission Impazible Rajiv Maragh Todd Pletcher 20-1
15 Discreetly Mine Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 30-1
16 Awesome Act Julien Leparoux Jeremy Noseda 10-1
17 Dublin Terry Thompson D Wayne Lukas 12-1
18 Backtalk Miguel Mena Tom Amoss 50-1
19 Homeboykris Ramon Dominguez Richard Dutrow, Jr 50-1
20 Sidney’s Candy Joe Talamo John Sadler 5-1

The above odds are taken from the Derby website, and they reflect all runners that are slated to go at this time. We have our fingers crossed for no last minute scratches or injuries, but that is the sport of racing. For the latest in what is going on at Churchill Downs, tune in tonight to the Internet Show as we will have on special guest Jennie Rees from the Courier-Journal. She is one of the most respected turf writers in the country, and will shed light on the behind the scenes doings this week.

Here are some tidbits of information that make up “The Run for the Roses.”

Television – 4 p.m. – 7 p.m. EST. – NBC

Radio – ESPN  Radio – 5 p.m. – 7 p.m. EST

Grade – I

Distance – 1 1/4 – Post time is 6:24 p.m. EST

Purse – $2,185,200

1st Place – $1,425,200 , 2nd -$400,000, 3rd -$ 200,000 , 4th -$100,000, 5th -$60,000

Winning Posts: post positions and number of wins -

1.-12, 2.-9, 3.-8, 4.-10, 5.-12, 6.-6, 7.-8, 8.-10, 9.-4, 10.-10, 11.-3, 12.-3, 13.-4, 14.-2, 15.-3, 16.-3, 17.-0, 18.-1, 19.-0, 20.-2.

Last winner from a selected post position:

1. – 1986 Ferdinand – 2. – 1978 – Affirmed – 3. – 1998 – Real Quiet – 4. 1977 – Seattle Slew – 5. – Funny Cide – 6. – 1993 -Sea Hero – 7. – 2007 – Street Sense – 8. – 2009 – Mine That Bird – 9. – 1972 -Riva Ridge – 10. – 2005 – Giacomo – 11. – 1988 – Winning Colors – 12. – 1971 – Canonero II – 13. – 2004 – Smarty Jones – 14. – 1961 Carry Back – 15. – 2000 – Fusaichi Pegasus – 16. – 2001 – Monarchos – 17. – ** none ** – 18. – 1982 – Gato Del Sol – 19. – ** never** – 20. 2008 – Big Brown

The race:

Rain is expected to hit the Louisville area, but Churchill Downs has excellent drainage that can allow the track to hold a great deal of moisture. I would plan on the track coming up with plenty of “give”, which would favor stalkers and closers, or if the track has a Smarty Jones type “rain-out”, then the track would favor heavily to the front runners. The turf course for the under card can also hold a great deal of moisture, and you can expect the graded  races to be run on the carpet.

There will be plenty of speed, and depending on how the track plays during the day, will show how the Derby will fare. With the extended time between the races, watch for the trucks to be out on the track. It could stay sealed all day long, and then they harrow the track, which will allow the track to dry (and the style of running can change). Watch for the harrows if the track is sealed. Sealed tracks are smooth, and the harrow teeth break open the track and it dries quickly.

The pace:

There is plenty of speed, but they all cannot control the lead. I would look for #5 Line of David and #12 Conveyance to set the pace. The latter may be Baffert’s rabbit, and this will be to ensure a lively pace for #1 Lookin At Lucky. Sidney’s Candy from post #20 will have to break close, and will want to not be caught outside into the first turn. Look for cheaper:  # 15 Discreetly Mine to get into the act as well.

The stalkers:

#10 Paddy O’Prado should be about 5-6 off of the lead, and look for #3 Noble’s Promise, and #4 Super Saver as well, as they straighten down the backside.

The move:

They are at the 3/8ths pole, and the speed should set a salty half. This will start the action moving with #10 Paddy O’ Prado moving, and the filly #11 Devil May Care will try and make a run at this time. Some of the speed will be going backwards, and the closers will have to be in the middle of the track. #4 Super Saver will make a “Bo-Rail” move along the rail, to try and set the field before the 1/4 pole.  Calvin knows the track, and he will try and steal the race if allowed.

The stretch:

The last 440 yards are the most grueling in racing. The speed will have faded, and #10 Paddy O’ Prado will have a length or so lead. #4 Super Saver will be running in place, and now you will see the likes of #16 Awesome Act trying to rally, and #2 Ice Box flying in the center of the course. The race will be won closer to the rail, as the past runnings have been finished about the 1/8th pole. This will belong to #1 Lookin At Lucky, who will get a perfect timed ride by Garrett Gomez. There will be no excuses on this day, as Baffert will have the stronger horse who has encountered many problems, where most of the field has seen clean trips.

The finish:

#1 Lookin At Lucky, #10 Paddy O’ Prado, and #2 Ice Box…. Finishing out the super could be – #11 Devil May Care, #14 Mission Impazible, or #16 Awesome Act.

The race should produce a runner that has seen tougher times. The Derby is a race where the best horse does not always win, and for the last two week, Baffert has been on “Cloud-9″ with his runners’ actions. He has seen troubled trips, and the lightly raced Paddy O’ Prado will do extremely well against this field. #2 Ice Box is a long closer, and the only things that stand in his way are 19 other runners causing him to swing wide.

As always, be sure to check your tier levels, and there will be some big value to be had as always. Also, keep your eyes peeled on Mother Nature, and watch how the track is doing all day long before putting your finishing touches on your tickets.

Good luck from WinningPonies, and enjoy Kentucky Derby 136!

13 Responses to “Kentucky Derby 136 [Free Selection]”

  1. RICHARD says:

    ED: I THINK YOU HAVE BEEN OVERTAKEN WITH LOOKIN AT LUCKY. HE DOES HAVE TALENT, NO DOUBT, BUT HAS BEEN USED FAIRLY HARD IN HIS 2 RACES THIS YEAR. I’M THINKING THAT HE WILL NOT GIVE HIS BEST EFFORT FOR THE DERBY. SO, FOR ME THE CONTENDERS ARE: SIDNEY’S CANDY, CONVEYANCE, AND DUBLIN. I LIKE SC’S SPEED BUT NOT JUST SPEED. HE HAS THE OFTEN LOST ABILITY TO RELAX DURING A RACE, EVEN, WHEN PRESSURED. HE ALSO BEAT LOOKIN IN THE SA DERBY, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THOSE THAT SAY LOOKIN HAD A ROUGH TRIP. A WIN IS A WIN, RIGHT? SC HAS 2 BRILLIANT WORKS SINCE ARRIVING AT CD. HIS 59.4 5F ON 4/17 WAS BREATHTAKING FOLLOWED BY AN EXTREMELY SMOOTH 1.11.3B ON 4/24 OVER A SLY STRIP WHICH INDICATES HE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE IF IT COMES UP WET. I KNOW THAT MANY EYES WILL BE ON BAFFERT’S LAL BUT HIS OTHER HORSE, CONVEYANCE SHOULD GIVE A VERY STRONG EFFORT AS WELL. MANY HANDICAPPERS DISMISS HIM AS A ‘RABBIT’ TO SET A PRESSURED PACE TO SET UP LAL AND OTHER CLOSERS, BUT I REALLY FEEL THAT CON HAS INDICATED THAT HE CAN CARRY HIS SPEED AND SINCE HIS LAST WAS ON THE SAME STRIP THAT MIND THAT BIRD RAN ON (SUNLAND), COULD IT BE A REPEAT SCENARIO? THE PRICE WILL BE JUICY, TOO. FINALLY, DUBLIN, IT SHOULD NOTED, WAS THE HIGHEST PRICE COLT AT THE KEESEP08 SALES, $525K, OBVIOUSLY THE CONNECTIONS FELT EXTREMELY HIGH ON HIM. HE RUNS LATE AND IF THE TRACK IS KIND TO CLOSERS, LOOK OUT IN THE LANE. BEST OF LUCK TO ALL, DICK A. MICHIGAN

  2. John B says:

    I am a total rookie at horse betting, so i am here to learn from you real horse people who know what your talking about. So I will not kid anyone….I will take tips from you all, and thats how I will bet the Kentucky Derby.

  3. JUDY/EDINA says:

    I AGREE WITH JOHN B…..JUST A ROOK TRYIN’ TO HAVE SOME FUN AND MAYBE EVEN WIN A COUPLE BUCKS……PRAY FOR US!!!!!

  4. ed says:

    Thanks for the comments !

    There is no exact science, but with the program, and my own handicapping. I find the 20 hole a tough deal. He is a poly / synthetic runner. There is just SO much speed, and I have trouble playing him. But, if I don’t hit… I sure hope you are right… I like to see everyone get a pay day !!

    For the new players, we give you our best advice. WP does this better than many I have ever worked with, and I play in major contests and love to play the ponies.

    I wish all of you luck, and as I always say: ” If I don’t get em’ today, I will get em’ the next day.” Just enjoy the sport, and stay tuned with us. Let us know your thoughts, and if you ever have a question, please let us know !!

    Good luck this weekend, as Mother Nature will be ugly on Saturday…..

    Ed

  5. Jotb says:

    Awesome Act is my top pick .. liked the move he was making in the Wood after a stumbling start and wide trip .. if Eskendreyea is as good as thought .. with a clean trip Awesome Act may have given him all he could handle .. i’m using Ice Box .. Paddy O’ and the filly in my Exacta Box ..

  6. Ed says:

    Jackson Bend is my horse, no eskandrea to beat. Look for him on the turn to pull away at square odds.

  7. malik says:

    well guys i am good handicapper like winningponies pro,s but i am sticking with no 4 super saver horse has won at that track and did it in good timing and has slop win one thing is plus for this horse and that is tracks best jokey (borel) good luck every body may the horses be with you .

  8. BayonneFrank says:

    For what it is worth I’m looking at Super Saver, Paddy O’Prada , Ice Box, Awesome Act. Superfecta Box. The church is right down the street. I start lighting candles in the early AM. LOL!

  9. jeff garcia says:

    i think the fillys gona win

  10. Horstradamus says:

    For all you rookies out there, definitely check out our professional handicapping service at http://www.winningponies.com/

    Our unique form covers all the races on Churchill’s Saturday card, including the Derby. We are the ONLY service that picked the Trifecta in our top 3 selections in 2 of the last 3 years.

    Good luck to all!!

    — Horstradamus

  11. lawyerbill says:

    The play on the Derby is to key 3 horses in the superfecta and find some value in the 3rd and 4th spot. For example, when Big Brown was the heavy favorite a few years ago, I still made $29,000 plus keying him on top on a $128 ticket. Good luck to the novice out there!

  12. Horstradamus says:

    Great shot to all who had Calvin ” Bo-Rail” – He is a great guy !! – Great rider as well….

  13. Horstradamus says:

    Lets see who comes back well, and it all begins again in 2 wks ! – Good luck to all…

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