2010 Kentucky Derby post positions and morning line odds
|Post… Horse… Jock… Trainer… ML
1 Lookin At Lucky Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert 3-1
2 Ice Box Jose Lezcano Nick Zito 10-1
3 Noble’s Promise Willie Martinez Ken McPeek 12-1
4 Super Saver Calvin Borel Todd Pletcher 15-1
5 Line of David Rafael Bejarano John Sadler 30-1
6 Stately Victor Alan Garcia Mike Maker 30-1
7 American Lion David Flores Eoin Harty 30-1
8 Dean’s Kitten Robby Albarado Mike Maker 50-1
9 Make Music for Me Joel Rosario Alexis Barba 50-1
10 Paddy O’Prado Kent Desormeaux Dale Romans 20-1
|Post… Horse… Jock… Trainer… ML
11 Devil May Care John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 10-1
12 Conveyance Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 12-1
13 Jackson Bend Mike Smith Nick Zito 15-1
14 Mission Impazible Rajiv Maragh Todd Pletcher 20-1
15 Discreetly Mine Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 30-1
16 Awesome Act Julien Leparoux Jeremy Noseda 10-1
17 Dublin Terry Thompson D Wayne Lukas 12-1
18 Backtalk Miguel Mena Tom Amoss 50-1
19 Homeboykris Ramon Dominguez Richard Dutrow, Jr 50-1
20 Sidney’s Candy Joe Talamo John Sadler 5-1
The above odds are taken from the Derby website, and they reflect all runners that are slated to go at this time. We have our fingers crossed for no last minute scratches or injuries, but that is the sport of racing. For the latest in what is going on at Churchill Downs, tune in tonight to the Internet Show as we will have on special guest Jennie Rees from the Courier-Journal. She is one of the most respected turf writers in the country, and will shed light on the behind the scenes doings this week.
Here are some tidbits of information that make up “The Run for the Roses.”
Television – 4 p.m. – 7 p.m. EST. – NBC
Radio – ESPN Radio – 5 p.m. – 7 p.m. EST
Grade – I
Distance – 1 1/4 – Post time is 6:24 p.m. EST
Purse – $2,185,200
1st Place – $1,425,200 , 2nd -$400,000, 3rd -$ 200,000 , 4th -$100,000, 5th -$60,000
Winning Posts: post positions and number of wins -
1.-12, 2.-9, 3.-8, 4.-10, 5.-12, 6.-6, 7.-8, 8.-10, 9.-4, 10.-10, 11.-3, 12.-3, 13.-4, 14.-2, 15.-3, 16.-3, 17.-0, 18.-1, 19.-0, 20.-2.
Last winner from a selected post position:
1. – 1986 Ferdinand – 2. – 1978 – Affirmed – 3. – 1998 – Real Quiet – 4. 1977 – Seattle Slew – 5. – Funny Cide – 6. – 1993 -Sea Hero – 7. – 2007 – Street Sense – 8. – 2009 – Mine That Bird – 9. – 1972 -Riva Ridge – 10. – 2005 – Giacomo – 11. – 1988 – Winning Colors – 12. – 1971 – Canonero II – 13. – 2004 – Smarty Jones – 14. – 1961 Carry Back – 15. – 2000 – Fusaichi Pegasus – 16. – 2001 – Monarchos – 17. – ** none ** – 18. – 1982 – Gato Del Sol – 19. – ** never** – 20. 2008 – Big Brown
Rain is expected to hit the Louisville area, but Churchill Downs has excellent drainage that can allow the track to hold a great deal of moisture. I would plan on the track coming up with plenty of “give”, which would favor stalkers and closers, or if the track has a Smarty Jones type “rain-out”, then the track would favor heavily to the front runners. The turf course for the under card can also hold a great deal of moisture, and you can expect the graded races to be run on the carpet.
There will be plenty of speed, and depending on how the track plays during the day, will show how the Derby will fare. With the extended time between the races, watch for the trucks to be out on the track. It could stay sealed all day long, and then they harrow the track, which will allow the track to dry (and the style of running can change). Watch for the harrows if the track is sealed. Sealed tracks are smooth, and the harrow teeth break open the track and it dries quickly.
There is plenty of speed, but they all cannot control the lead. I would look for #5 Line of David and #12 Conveyance to set the pace. The latter may be Baffert’s rabbit, and this will be to ensure a lively pace for #1 Lookin At Lucky. Sidney’s Candy from post #20 will have to break close, and will want to not be caught outside into the first turn. Look for cheaper: # 15 Discreetly Mine to get into the act as well.
#10 Paddy O’Prado should be about 5-6 off of the lead, and look for #3 Noble’s Promise, and #4 Super Saver as well, as they straighten down the backside.
They are at the 3/8ths pole, and the speed should set a salty half. This will start the action moving with #10 Paddy O’ Prado moving, and the filly #11 Devil May Care will try and make a run at this time. Some of the speed will be going backwards, and the closers will have to be in the middle of the track. #4 Super Saver will make a “Bo-Rail” move along the rail, to try and set the field before the 1/4 pole. Calvin knows the track, and he will try and steal the race if allowed.
The last 440 yards are the most grueling in racing. The speed will have faded, and #10 Paddy O’ Prado will have a length or so lead. #4 Super Saver will be running in place, and now you will see the likes of #16 Awesome Act trying to rally, and #2 Ice Box flying in the center of the course. The race will be won closer to the rail, as the past runnings have been finished about the 1/8th pole. This will belong to #1 Lookin At Lucky, who will get a perfect timed ride by Garrett Gomez. There will be no excuses on this day, as Baffert will have the stronger horse who has encountered many problems, where most of the field has seen clean trips.
#1 Lookin At Lucky, #10 Paddy O’ Prado, and #2 Ice Box…. Finishing out the super could be – #11 Devil May Care, #14 Mission Impazible, or #16 Awesome Act.
The race should produce a runner that has seen tougher times. The Derby is a race where the best horse does not always win, and for the last two week, Baffert has been on “Cloud-9″ with his runners’ actions. He has seen troubled trips, and the lightly raced Paddy O’ Prado will do extremely well against this field. #2 Ice Box is a long closer, and the only things that stand in his way are 19 other runners causing him to swing wide.
As always, be sure to check your tier levels, and there will be some big value to be had as always. Also, keep your eyes peeled on Mother Nature, and watch how the track is doing all day long before putting your finishing touches on your tickets.
Good luck from WinningPonies, and enjoy Kentucky Derby 136!