Preakness Rundown

by Ed Meyer

posted on May 13, 2010 in Handicapping, Other Events | 4 Comments >>

The field is set, and only one can continue the dream of being the next Triple Crown hopeful. It has been a long time from that sales ring to the two-year-olds in training, and the long trek up Triple Crown hill. We could talk at great length about what could happen, but that is why they run the races. But, until then…This will get you thinking about Saturday afternoon now…

#1 – Aikenite – J.J. Castellano has the call and is 20-1. That is a very square price, and this son of Yes it’s True ran a nice second in the Derby Trial. This race has been a great set-up race for Baltimore.

#2 – Schoolyard Dreams – Eibar Coa has the mount, and is 15-1. I thought this is not enough of a price for this son of Stephen Got Even. He has a nice look, and the G-3 ranks and ungraded stakes will do him well. I just think this race may be a little out of reach, and other price runners look better.

#3 – Pleasant Prince – Julien Leparoux is up and gets a 20-1 tag. This son of Indy King can be a part of the gimmicks. He strikes when he wants, and I am not sure if he wants poly, or he is just that versatile. The rider is capable, and the price is right to put him in your exotics.

#4 – Northern Giant – Terry Thompson is in the saddle, and is 20-1. D. Wayne doesn’t send them for nothing. I would examine him for that fact alone. Thompson is very good if we are at Prairie Meadows, or Turfway Park. I think he may not have the horse, and could get lost….

#5 – Yawanna Twist – Edgar Prado is aboard. I have just one question… Did Barbaro end Prado’s career? I would have walked off and tossed in the towel. But he was great. He just doesn’t look the same, and I sure do miss him… When he is on, he can roll over others.

#6 – Jackson Bend – Mike Smith is up, and he is good…. He is like a coiled snake. He can strike at any time at any price…..12-1, is nice. I like the price here… 9/10 ITM lifetime, and he is ultra consistent. A very nice work at Churchill after a bad trip on Derby Day. I like his chances to pull the upset, and if he does, it won’t surprise many….

#7 – Lookin At Lucky – Martin Garcia is the new rider. He is replacing Gomez, and that is NO strike on G.G…. They just don’t fit together. Some things just don’t go good together. But, Garcia has worked hard for Baffert and this is his day. Can he get “Lucky”? That is in the trip and his ability. I have watched him ride in California, and he is good. He looks good in the saddle, and will give it his all. At 3-1, I feel he may be assigned just right… The trouble has been talked about, and he gets the “Lucky-7″ hole. A new rider, and Baffert has confidence in him… So do I, but he will have his hands full of the runner to his outside.

#8 – Super Saver – 5-2, and Calvin Borel…. Now, that is a good combo. Borel is being compared to the greats, and he is really showing us that his three Derby wins were not just luck. Ever since Tampa Bay, he has gotten even better. The Derby brought out his best. There is NO Conveyance, and he may just jump on the lead. If he does, you can bet Calvin will be on the rail…. I would love to see a T/C contender, and this one may have caught the right year to pull this off. To me, it boils down to two horses: one that won, and the other who cruised between horses under no urging to run 6th. This will be an interesting last 16th.

#9 – Caracortado – 10-1, and Paul Atkinson is in the irons. Atkinson is living the dream, but it may come a bit short. He has plenty of ability, but there are two others that he has to beat before he gets his picture taken. “Scarface” should put on a good show, and this Cal-bred should give his all, even though he doesn’t have much dirt experience.

#10 – Paddy O’ Prado – Kent Desormeaux in the saddle at 9-2…. Two off the poly, and he came a bit tired at Churchill. I like his chances, and he should have some left in the tank, as Kent did not beat him up….Paddy is a good bet, and I think you will get better than 9-2.

#11 – First Dude – This one is named after Todd Palin….He was “The Dude.” Ramon Dominguez is the pilot, and 20-1 is good bidding. The “Dude” is capable. I look at those last two races, and he was knocked around… I think he will give it his all, and the rider is tough down the lane.

#12 – Dublin – Uh, oh…. The spoiler alert is on… Gomez in the irons, and after being taken off “Lucky”, he would like to turn the tables. Toss out the last race, and he doesn’t look bad… Not at all…. Can you tell me when Gomez rode a 10-1 shot for you? Me neither…..The switch is no smack on him. He is the best $$$$ rider in the business. He can stay close, and the rider will bring his “A” game….

Go ahead, and take a look at the field. but before you make any decisions. Download your data as WinningPonies will have a target on this day. They do well on the marquee days, and they usually pull out some prices.

4 Responses to “Preakness Rundown”

  1. rick says:

    my Preakness picks r 8 7 1 10 3 had derby exacta the last 2 years plus win and place on calvin 2 weeks ago

  2. mattyb says:

    8,7,10 —- long shot dublin

  3. hogan says:

    What is the odds winning ponies can pick even one horse in the top 3? Been way off the mark on all big races….

  4. Ed Meyer says:

    Every horse player has ups and downs. If it were exact, then only a handful of folks would score…

    Just like the market. Stay in it for the long haul… We all get a peak and valley in our plans. See how things go this weekend, and let us know how you do..

    Best of luck, and enjoy Preakness 135 !!

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