2010 brings us the 135th running of the Preakness. I watched today, and wanted to see how the track played. I have read the race, and have come down to a picture breakdown of how I see the race unfolding.
Away from the gate we should see Super Saver getting the lead. There is no Conveyance in here, and he should have it if he wants it. I see Calvin getting the hook, and moving to the rail. Yawanna Twist will be in a small gang with Schoolyard Dreams, and Jackson Bend.
As they straighten away for the long run down the backside, you will see Super Saver settle in after a quarter of 23 and change and pushing the half at 46 and change. It will be honest… Jackson Bend will get into a groove and start looking good. Lookin At Lucky will be in the two path or so, and be stalking just off the leaders. Schoolyard Dreams will be looking flat, and Yawanna Twist will be going in reverse. No big running has kicked in yet.
The 3/8th’s Pole
Super Saver will kick up his speed a bit, and Lookin At Lucky will be on par with Jackson Bend, who is shadowing S.S, and now you start seeing Paddy O’ Prado starting to move as he has been patient. Aikenite will be about 10 out of it, and moving along the rail. I will start seeing the silks of Dublin, and Pleasant Prince moving in tandem. The running is beginning.
Top of the Stretch
Super Saver will try and give them the slip. Borel will have a two length lead, and Lookin At Lucky will start chopping away under Garcia’s left hand. He will really start looking good at this point. Dublin is in high gear, but is under a stiff drive. The early pacesetters have dropped back, and Jackson Bend will still look like a contender. Mike Smith will have a great ride, and will have no excuse. Paddy O’ Prado will be running in the same spot, and Desormeaux will not beat him up again. First Dude will try and run, but the Belmont will look more his game. Aikenite is hanging on the rail, and may complete the superfecta.
Right in the shadow of the wire you will see Lucky getting past Super Saver. They should have a three length or better lead as they throw down, and Jackson Bend is getting a hard final push. Finishing out the super will be Pleasant Prince or Aikenite, who received a rail trip all the way around. The time will be a blip better than average, and the square off will be talked about for three weeks until the Belmont.
Final placement- Lookin At Lucky, Super Saver, Pleasant Prince and Aikenite. This still will be a nice trifecta, and Lucky will pay a sweet $9 to win…..
One man’s vision. You must break down a race before you can see your horse winning. This is my view, and I am hoping for a fast track. If it comes up a little soft, that will be fine. As long as it is not Derby saturated.
WinningPonies wishes everyone a great day, and bet with your head and not over it! Be sure to check in with the tier levels for the entire card, and don’t be afraid to reach out for prices in gimmicks. Big days bring opportunity. Let us know your thoughts on the race breakdown, and plot it on paper before you make your wager.