Kentucky Derby 2012 Future Bets

by Horstradamus

posted on December 27, 2011 in Free Picks and Tips, Handicapping, Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby, News, WinningPonies.com | 3 Comments >>

While most people don’t consider December to be the best month for betting on Kentucky Derby prospects that hasn’t stopped several of the biggest sports books in Vegas from offering odds on hundreds of horses who may or may not be the next Secretariat.

The Wynn Race & Sports Book kicked off the fun by opening their 2012 Kentucky Derby future book in September. The vast majority of horses are going off at astronomical odds between 200/1 and 500/1, but a select few have taken plenty of early money – especially if they put in a strong perforce at the Breeders’ Cup.

The two obvious leaders and fan favorites are Union Rags who opened up at 60/1 and now stands at 10/1 and Hansen who started at 250/1 and has been bet down to 18/1. Hansen’s break out performance by winning the BC Juvenile on his first start on a dirt surface proved that he can be a real contender as a 3-year-old. Union Rags went off as the favorite and ran a great race but had to deal with a lot of lost ground and a terrible trip.2012 Kentucky Derby Logo

The mid priced contenders are other winners such as Algorithms, Alpha, Consortium, Dullahan, Ever So Lucky, Liaison, and O’Prado Again with odds ranging from 20/1 to 40/1. Of this group Liaison looks to be on the most solid ground going forward. His win in the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity gave him his 3rd consecutive overall win and second straight route win going 1 1/16 miles. Liaison is trained by Bob Baffert, the king of Synthetic to Dirt conversions and looks like he’ll be the one to beat wherever he shows up next.

With hundreds of horses to choose from the odds are at least 100/1 for most of these contenders just to make it to the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. That is why if you’re going to make a future bet this early in the game you need to look for value. Luckily there are one or two horses that could have a legitimate shot at huge future book prices.

My Miss Aurelia trained by Steve Asmussen is now sitting at 100/1 a bit below her opening price of 125/1. This filly is certainly the best of the 2-year-old crop and with filly’s dominating the top tier of US racing over the past few years – why can’t she take on the boys? My Miss Aurelia is a perfect 4 for 4 at Saratoga, Belmont, and Churchill and if anyone can get her ready to face the colts it’s Mr. Asmussen and Stonestreet Stables, the same team that brought us Rachel Alexandra for her historic season in 2009.

For those who really want to go out on a limb check out Shkspeare Shaliyah who has two wins at 1 1/16 miles including the Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont Park. While he is a proven threat on the turf – he still has much to prove on the dirt. After a ninth place finish (out of 14 starters) in the Breeders’ Cup Juveniles Turf some have written this horse off hence a price of 225/1 if he wins the 2012 Kentucky Derby.

3 Responses to “Kentucky Derby 2012 Future Bets”

  1. Ed says:

    Great article !!

  2. JOSE0311USMC says:

    2012 derby winner ? ALGORITHMS—GEMOLOGIST…………OAK WINNER —MISS AURELIA—BRODDWAY ALIBI.

  3. More says:

    IMHO, the biggest porblem is the lack of a single governing body. Every other sport has one, but horse racing does not. Without such a body it is impossible to address the porblems listed above and others. No one has enforcement authority, no one can set policies that apply across the industry, there is no clear marketing message, there’s no lobbying group, etc.But let’s look at your list.A) Abuse of horses in training is not a big porblem. Racehorses are, by and large, a pampered lot even at low-level tracks. They’re not volunteers, but they are natural runners and most of them like to race. Crops may look abusive, but they are heavily padded and are designed primarily to make noise. The biggest humane issue facing the industry is what to do with these horses after they have retired or if they never make it to the track. Far too many still go to slaughter or suffer other neglect. The industry tends to support and endorse rescue efforts, some farms have their own retirement programs, and some groups such as the New York Racing Association have anti-slaughter policies. However, there is no consistency and no means to guarantee these horses a future. It should be noted that the porblem of unwanted horses goes way beyond Thoroughbreds.B) Steroids are no longer allowed, so their use has decreased. Of course, abuses occur. The bigger porblem is what to do about legal medications. The two main ones are Lasix (furosemide) and Bute (phenylbutazone, an NSAID). Lasix is widely used in the U.S. Its purpose is to control bleeding in the respiratory system, but it enhances performance and so is used by all horses, bleeders or not. Bute, a painkiller, makes it more likely that a horse with a minor injury will run and become even more injured, perhaps suffering a catastrophic injury. These medications are not used outside North America (I don’t know about Canada). Some entities such as The Jockey Club have come out in favor of a ban on race-day medications, and Federal legislation has been proposed.C) Declining attendance is certainly a porblem. More specifically, the decline in handle i.e., revenues from wagering, is an issue. Handle is what supports purses and provides monies to operate tracks. The industry needs to appeal to potential new bettors while retaining current players. Some related porblems are small fields of horses and poor-quality races that don’t appeal to bettors, competition from other gambling venues, an aging demographic, and high takeout, which reduces the payouts to bettors. The industry also does not do a good job making money off of non-bettors.Other porblems: star horses leaving training early for more lucrative stud careers, less durable racehorses whether due to poor training practices or to bad breeding practices, lack of media coverage especially television, on-track safety issues (breakdowns) and what to do about them, overbreeding, difficulty getting new blood into the industry, and overall sensitivity to the economy.What’s good about the industry? First and foremost, horses! A running Thoroughbred is a beautiful sight. Most of the people in the industry and most fans really do love and care about these animals. Social media has brought new fans. Social media also makes it easier to assist horses in need, and it has made fundraising much easier. Occasionally a superstar such as Zenyatta comes along and makes people fall in love not just with her, but with racing in general. Veterinary science is improving the prospects for injured and ailing horses who would have been destroyed just a few years ago. edited to fix typos

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