Make the Winning Move

by Ed Meyer

posted on August 23, 2017 in Blogroll, General Discussion, Handicapping, Horse Racing, WinningPonies.com | No Comments >>

The good, the bad, and the ugly. – This is one way of categorizing your day at the races. For the longest time, I’ve watched the cyclical trend of having a good run go cold. I look back and wondered what was the cause, or were there any signs I should have been on the watch. After years of pulling out my hair and staring at my wallet. I’ve come up with a short list of answers for this handicapper. Take a look and see if you fall into any of these traps.

 

1. - When I am up I tend to bet more races than I had planned. – I use to call this “tap-dancing” as players would bet any and all signals just because they have a minute or two to post. – Have you ever done this? I will admit for a fact that I’m guilty. Just when I did my homework and found a runner who won easily and paid the price I was looking for. It could have been an exacta or pick-four with a huge guaranteed pool. – Just when I see the bankroll amount on my computer grow, it hits me like a fever. I make that impulse bet. It’s only a few bucks, and I surely deserve a little fun. What’s the fun of winning if you can’t have a little action? – If any of this feels familiar, you have identified one of the biggies. – Say you are up $200 and make a $5 win play at XXX Downs. You didn’t look at the races and you’re just trying to keep the winning streak alive. – It loses more times than not, and if you do this 10 times during your day of wagering. That is $50 bucks tossed away. Using the $200 winning bankroll for the day and this includes the “grind.” You’ve just tossed away 25% more than you had planned. – Don’t try and argue the fact sometimes they win. In the long-run, they’ll tank and you’ll lose your momentum. – Keep your head about you at all times. – I was up $125 last night and started betting a small time night signal I never play. – I turned my $125 into $50 just on the “fun play” I was having.

 

2. – Turn the damn thing off! – Yes, you heard it right here. – There was the target pick-four you wanted to play and you did your homework. Then after nailing the bet, you find yourself looking to make a bet or two to cap off the night. – I have done this more times than not and the only way to stop is to turn the computer off. – Close your ADW account and withdraw some funds if possible. This runs hand-in-hand with #1 and if you think about it it is just sloppy play.

 

3. - No wild plays on a small budget. – That means NO Fortune Six or Pick-Six action with a small bankroll. Forget about the player who took down a score with a 40-cent ticket. That’s nice, and congrats to the player. I could be wrong but when it said he hit the wager on two 20-cent plays. He’s either the best in the world or a lucky duck. – Doesn’t matter, and it’s just an example. Don’t get sucked into the “big dream” wager. – How many times have you read about the player who bet his last $50 into a hard to hit wager and it tanked? – Me neither. There are more that get skunked and fill the pool for the lucky duck to swim. – Leave it alone or grab a few partners to take a calculated shot.

 

4. – Don’t be the one-day pro. – You know what I mean and how many times are we guilty? – I was caught watching the third strike on Saturday and the track was one I NEVER play. – A big time trainer had a horse in the race and it looked like easy money. – Two minutes after the race I said out loud “I’ll never play XYZ Downs again.” – If you don’t watch and wager on a track. Don’t bet. You have NO idea about bias, trends, or what has been working. – No more one-day pro wagers.

 

We tend to think just because we’re winning the day is ours. – This was a pretty good week, but it could’ve been better. – This is not a “hoggish” statement as my dad would have claimed but a real admission of stupidity. So many times we study and prepare only to get washed in the first leg or get dusted on the day. – I did the best thing possible at the end of a good four-day run. I withdrew the funds and they arrived this morning in my bank account. – I can start again later this week if I like. That is the best part when you are winning. Give yourself a little down time to take it all in and see where you stand. – If you don’t believe me stand quietly behind any video poker player. They’ll be up to $80 bucks and down $75 in minutes as they tap the buttons like an old typewriter. Take your time, think it out and make your move. That my friend is the best advice for a gambler you’ll ever receive.

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