Betting the Kentucky Derby Card

by Ed Meyer

posted on April 30, 2024 in Blogroll, Free Picks and Tips, General Discussion, Handicapping, Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby, | Comments Off on Betting the Kentucky Derby Card

The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby is only days away. – It just seems like a few days ago I was watching some of the first prep races for the Derby trail. But, this is not a drill; the real thing takes place this Saturday.


Race #6 – The G1 Derby City – 7 furlongs

Race predictions from Timeform US and other figures show this race to have a quick opening pace. Two things happen with such speed. Either there is a complete stoppage and horses will run out of gas, or they will run them off their feet and go wire to wire. – I see this to be an excellent opportunity to stalk and pounce off the pace.

#10 – Vahva (3-1) = This daughter of Gun Runner ran a lights out 2nd place effort at Keeneland last out and this is her 2nd start of the year. Following the solid effort in the G1 Madison, she worked a bullet over the Kee surface. Irad Ortiz is in the saddle and she will be tougher than a nickel steak turning for home.


Race #10 – The Churchill Downs Stake – 7 furlongs

#11 – Hoist the Gold (3-1) = He hasn’t run since the G1 Saudi Cup in February and cuts back to 7 furlongs where he is 6/7 ITM at the distance and 4/6 ITM at Churchill. This son of Mineshaft has been working very well in the mornings and John Velasquez looks to give a perfect off-the-pace ride.


Race #11 – The G1 Turf Classic – 1 1/8 miles on the turf

#11 – Naval Power (7-2) = Frankie Dettori in the driver’s seat for the turf master Charlie Appleby. This son of Teofilo (IRE) has a super strong late kick with a 120 Timeform US late running figure. He was rolling late going 1m at Kee in the G1 Makers Mark Mile and gets 1/8th of a mile more to come running. His dam Emirates Reward (GB) has 5 starters, 4 winners, and a stakes victory to her credit. Frankie and Appleby will make a dangerous team in here, and look for them from the 1/4 to the wire.


Race #12 – The G1 150th Running of the Kentucky Derby – 1 1/4 miles

#4 – Catching Freedom (8-1) = Flavien Prat closed from last place in the G1 Louisiana Derby going 8 wide down the lane to get up. That was 1 3/16th’s and he gets an extra 1/16th of a mile to come motoring. This son of Constitution broke his maiden at first asking at Churchill and is 4/5 ITM lifetime. Lightly raced, and Prat knows how to get their best. Take a look at his last work over the Churchill track going 59.1 the 2nd best of 58 runners that day at the distance. Getting the four-post is a plus as he can save ground or angle off a bit and not get hemmed in along the rail. Watching the race at Fair Grounds sealed the deal for me and I love the rider who should do well for Brad Cox.

Use with: #2 – Sierra Leone, #7 – Honor Marie, and #18 – Stronghold.


Remember to download your Winning Ponies EZ Win Forms to get a comprehensive look into how the race will take shape. Color-coded and easy to use for the new player to a seasoned professional. Winning Ponies is always ready on the marquee days to take away the guesswork from your handicapping. What are ya waiting for? Let’s get handicapping! – Best of luck from your friends at Winning Ponies.