Betting the Kentucky Oaks Card

by Ed Meyer

posted on April 30, 2024 in Blogroll, Free Picks and Tips, General Discussion, Handicapping, Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby, | Comments Off on Betting the Kentucky Oaks Card

The first day of live racing action can be quite the bonus for handicappers looking to get the jump on a last-minute bankroll boost as the “Lilies for the Fillies” takes place at Churchill Downs. The undercard offers great plays that you can roll right into the Oaks and beyond. Here is a game plan that can get you thinking about Louisville’s Day at the Races.


Race #5 – The G1 La Troienne – 1 1/16 miles


It looks to be a solid pace run into the turn and expect fractions to be hot. #4 – Idiomatic (6-5) sports a 113 early Timeform figure which equates to a quick start from the gate break. Speed on the lead can be dangerous and Florent Geroux in the irons seeking his 6th straight win.


Race #7 – The G2 Alysheba – 1 1/16 miles

This is a crazy hot pace going into the turn and look for the pace to start wobbling at the top of the lane. A runner that fits the bill perfectly is the #3 – First Mission (8-5) who is a perfect stalking sort and his back speed figures show that can be the case when the early running gets salty. 2nd time off the layoff for this son of Street Sense, and can play right into Florent Geroux’s plans turning for home.


Race #9 – The G2 8 Belles – 7 furlongs

I’m looking at a very fast pace which is sure to set up the come-from-behind runners. This leads me to the winner of the G2 Beaumont at Keeneland; #7 – Diamonds and Pearls (3-1). A mile pushed her limits a bit and 1 1/16 was too far. Coming right off that win with two works has her looking fine coming into today’s race. Prat Flavien in the irons and look for him at the top of the lane working off the rail circling runners who are tossing in the towel.


Race #10 – The G2 Edgewood – 1 1/16 miles on the turf

#13 – Dancing in Dixie (12-1) ran a swift closing race last at Keeneland and needed just a little bit more than the one mile in the G2 Appalachian. Today, she gets an extra 1/16th to run at and Jose Ortiz retains the mount. A big run at a solid price is expected down the lush turf course. Use with: #4 – Buchu, and #11 – Way to be Marie.


Race #11 – The G1 Kentucky Oaks – 1 1/8 miles

A quick pace is expected and this could set up some late runners in the final 1/8 of the race. #14 – Leslie’s Rose (4-1) fits the bill in the hands of Irad Ortiz. He has been aboard all four starts and just won the G1 Ashland over the Keenland surface. She packs a strong late kick and should be a factor in being wide and staying away from the quitters who set the early fractions. Use with: #11 Ways and Means and #13 Just FYI.


This should get you thinking about Oaks Day, and be sure to download your Winning Ponies EZ Win Forms for the most comprehensive look into how the races will set up. – Best of luck from your friends at Winning Ponies!