Horse Racing Tips and Picks from WinningPonies.com

Bettors’ Bonanza


September 29th, 2008 by Horstradamus

On Breeders’ Cup Day, the world’s largest Pick-6 pool and new Super High-5 wagers will take center stage. The two day event will include 14 Breeders’ Cup races worth $25.5 million in purses. What a day this will be.

In addition to the standard fare of Win, Place, and Show betting, there will be Exacta and Trifecta wagering on every race, and a rolling Pick-3 beginning with the first race and continuing through the all of the events. Over the years, Exacta payouts have averaged $230, and Trifecta payouts have averaged $2,600. What a day to get in the game.

There will be ten-cent Superfectas on every race except the races that offer the Super High-5 wager. There will be two guaranteed Pick-4’s with a $2 million dollar guarantee, and the late Pick-4 starting with race #6 with a $2 million dollar guarantee.

There will be 10 races (five of those Breeders’ Cup races) on Championship Friday. First post on Friday is 2:05 p.m. E.T.  For Championship Saturday, first post time is 1:10 p.m. E.T.  The program will begin with nine consecutive Breeders’ Cup races.  ABC Sports will televise four races from 1:00 - 3:00 p.m. E.T., followed by the remaining five races on ESPN from 3:30 - 7:00 p.m.

This is a day for players. It is always nice to have new fans watch and wager on the greatest day in racing, but this one is for the real players; those who follow year to year, and season to season.  With the buffet of wagering, you will find it hard not to find value. With the expanded coverage, you will find it hard not to see the action. You have been watching some of these runners since their two-old-season, and others for their past seasons of racing. It is a day when new champions will be crowned, and others will make their mark to be the next coming. Overall, it is our crowning ceremony. Be sure not to miss these days.

One Month Until The Big Show Comes To Town


September 29th, 2008 by Horstradamus

Players have one month to get their thoughts together. This is the first Breeders’ Cup since 1984, which the big dance will be run on artificial surface.

The Australian company who created the Pro-Ride surface has made a composite of granulated sands, a unique cushioning agent, and a patented polymeric binding agent. It is created to reduce kickback, and allows for a 2-phase cushioning effect. Ian Pearse from Pro-Ride arrived in mid-July, and completely removed the old track. He added a new base, and the surface was applied soon after.

So, how do we get a handle on the new synthetic wave? You may want to take a look at: “Betting Synthetic Surfaces: Conquering Racing’s Newest Frontier,” the book is written by Bill Finley from the Daily Racing Form Press. It’s available at www.drf.com, and is major bookstores.

The Blood-Horse magazine put out a book in 2007, but Finley’s book takes the issue to the next level. He is able to debunk the turf runner myth taking to the surface, and that dirt horses fare much better to the new surface than the turf players.

With one month to go I would suggest: educate yourself with up to date books; watch all of the Santa Anita races you can take; and keep WinningPonies.com as your guiding tool. With all of these three elements, you have a much greater edge than the player who walks up the day of the event and empties their pockets.

I Sure Hope You Saw It Happen


September 28th, 2008 by Horstradamus

On Saturday, September 27, 2008, history was made. We have a new leader at the top of the money heap. The way we gauge our game is by how well you get paid. I think we’ll be talking about Curlin for years to come.

In the G-1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational, the stage was set to propel Curlin to the top of the pantheon. His career earnings are $10,246,800, compared to Cigar with $9,999,815. Jess Jackson, of Stonestreet Stable, has committed to running in the $5 million dollar Breeders’ Cup Classic.

He was running on a sticky sloppy surface that didn’t favor any of the favorites for the most part all day. When you run for these kind of bucks, you can bet they will be gunning for you. It is no secret what your plans are, and what you are trying to accomplish. But today, it was more than just money. History was on the table.

Curlin settled out, and was ridden to a perfect ride by Robby Albarado. He finished up down the lane a little wide and went on to score by a 1 1/4 length victory. He had to work for it, make no bones up about it. Wanderin Boy and Alan Garcia were not going to go away quietly. Garcia is riding as good as anyone in the nation. He has New York’s number, and is beginning to write his own ticket.

With Curlin’s record at: 15 starts - 11 wins, 2 places, and 2 show finishes,  if my math serves me correct, he is perfect in the money. Not a bad career, and it is not over yet.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has done very well with this son of Smart Strike. He could see he looked comfortable down the backstretch and knew he had the right hand in the saddle. About the last seventy yards, there was a chill that ran down my arm. To see a champion etch his name with the best of the best, is a moment that brings to light why we watch horse racing. Congratulations, champ… Savor the moment… Thank you for creating memories for all of the fans. There was never a time like now where we needed a true champion.

Super Horse?


September 27th, 2008 by Horstradamus

Televised on ESPN News today we will possibly see history being made. It will happen at 6:02 p.m EST, and the books of history may be opened again. This time to etch Curlin’s name into the pages.

According to WinningPonies.com Curlin has some positive signs. He is making a start off a 28 day race in the Woodward. He won by over a length and was carried out down the lane. This time he looked pressed, and dug in and found another gear. what a big time prep…..

He has the “should improve” banner on his data, and if he does he may take flight down the lane today. He has been working the very deep Oklahoma training track, and this puts a finishing touch on all runners. The tiring surface allows them to add gas to the tank.

You would be hard pressed to squabble with his record of 14 starts - 10 wins, 2 seconds, and 2 thirds. He has won over an off surface, and yesterday Belmont called off racing due to the rains. For the main course,  look for an improving surface all day long. That is, if Mother Nature complies. But no excuses here. This guy looks to be the goods. He draws the rail to save ground, and has the services of a very solid rider in Robbie Albarado.

The top tier selections say that Stones River 20-1 and Merchant Marine 12-1 should be in the mix. I like the selections, but I think today is meant for Curlin. Don’t forget that there is a $500,000 guaranteed Pick-4, and with Curlin, you may be able to make that a Pick-3. Be sure to follow WinningPonies to the windows, with all of the other selections, to make a sweet Pick-4.  My only advice is to use the data and press the repeat button as many times as possible.

History Will Be Televised


September 25th, 2008 by Horstradamus

The NTRA has announced that it will bring you the Jockey Gold Cup on ESPN News this Saturday. It will be race #10, and Curlin will attempt to etch his name in the history books by edging Cigar as the leading money winner in racing.

Cigar retired in 1996, and earned $9,999,815 lifetime. Curlin has $9.796,800 to his credit. The purse is $450,000, and he would roll by Cigar, and into the books, if he can get the job done.

The race is for 3-year-olds going 1 1/4, and is a “Win and You’re In” qualifying race. So, not only does he go into the history books, he will get his dance card stamped for Santa Anita.  But don’t make any reservations yet, as he needs to take one race at a time.

There is a $500,000 guaranteed all stakes Pick-4, and one of the best cards assembled for this historic day.

In a year when so many factors are facing racing, it could use a new poster child. We thought Big Brown was going to blow away the fog, but that was not to be.  If there ever was a time, it is now. With medication issues, Eight Belles’ death in the Derby, declining handles nationally, a fading fan base, and a game that is need of a face lift, Curlin could bring racing back into focus as we head into the Breeders’ Cup.  Hopefully we can bring racing back in the minds of the fans.  So much rides on this race.  Not only for the connections of Curlin, but for the sport of racing.

A Weekend Not To Miss


September 25th, 2008 by Horstradamus

This is a GREAT Saturday, and one that may play a big piece of the handicapping puzzle. There are eleven G-1 races between Belmont and Santa Anita. Not only will you see some of the warm action for Breeders’ Cup Day, but these races have historically played a prep for the big dance.

Starting at Belmont, you have: The Beldame; The Flower Bowl; The Vosburgh; Joe Hirsch Classic; and last but not least, the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where history will possibly be made. The Jockey Club Gold Cup has Curlin in the field and he may pass the great Cigar as the all time money winner.

Here are some runners worth the price of admission:  In the Beldame Stakes, there is a 5-year-old mare by the name of Ginger Punch, who may be prepping to do battle. She draws the rail, has Bejarano in the saddle, and is trained by Bobby Frankel. Now that may be enough most weeks, but as we draw closer to B/C Day, you need an ” A” game to get your ticket stamped. You will want to pass on runners bound for California that do not finish first or second in these top preps. She is 5/5 in the money at Belmont, and cuts back in distance to 1 1/8th. She should be double tough, and you will have to extend with exotics to find value. This is where WinningPonies.com comes into play for the big stakes.  They will be dialed in on how to maximize a chalk runner into a Pick-3, Pick-4, and single race exotics.

Ladies and gents, you may want to peel your eyes open, as history will be made.  In the 10th race, which is the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Curlin will be the overwhelming chalk, and he should be. You will have to kick that Pick-4 into a Pick-3 by singling him, and punch that repeat button as many times as you can. Remember this race and day; history will be made. He’ll win on this day, but will have his work cut out on Breeders’ Cup Day, when all of the best arrive (especially Henry the Navigator from overseas).

At Santa Anita we will see some real runners as well. In the Clement L. Hirsch, you have a runner that should set them on their ear. A son of Chester House, who goes by the name of Spring House, is bred up and down to love the weeds. He is 2/2 at Santa Anita, and is 21/31 times ITM on the grass.  Making his third start off layoff should point him in the right direction. Take a look at the run in the Eddie Read where he ran an even fourth, then came flying in the Del Mar Handicap to go to the winner’s circle. I love the breeding, the timing, and the way he has matured.

Another race worth the battle is the Goodwood Stakes. Spirit One, who won the Arlington Million after shipping in from France, is a hard knocking colt who looks to enjoy the scenery of the United States. A top notch trainer/rider combo cutting back in distance should be the magic potion.

This is a strong day. A day where you will not want to be without WinningPonies.com.  So, have your materials and know that this is a day when you can dive in deep in the exotics. There will be a couple of days that allow you to blow off the doors before Breeders’ Cup, and this is one of them.

A Tough Game


September 24th, 2008 by Horstradamus

When the thoroughbred racing game forces good solid trainers to retire, it is a sure sign things are a changing. That is exactly what is happening. It is happening to a man we have been discussing recently here on WinningPonies.com. His name is Larry Jones…..

From a small time trainer in Henderson, Kentucky to the big leagues, one thing has been a constant. Larry Jones is a class act. During these times of change and introspection, one of the good guys of racing will be hanging up his tack after 25 years.

Assisted by his wife Cindy, they have personified the good side of the game. Hard work, honest ideals, and love for their horses has carried them far. This past year has been a good year and bad year according to Jones. After celebrating the Kentucky Oaks win with Proud Spell, he came back the next day to have one of the best fillies in the country die in the Kentucky Derby. That is a swing of emotions that no human being could weather.

The media scrutiny, the constant negative press, mail from angry fans just takes it toll on one of the best. I know that steel rusts, and Superman has kryptonite. I guess that everyone has a point when they want to hang it up. Maybe it was having ten days off in 25 years; maybe it was this horrific year; maybe it could have demanding owners that wanted this small time outfit to run like the big outfits. Either one, or all could have been factors. But after the Breeders’ Cup 2009, Larry Jones wants to be out of the game.

He wants to phase out his operation. He will still see his babies through next year’s Triple Crown, but he would like to retire after the Breeders’ Cup. This can be a tough game. One minute your on top, and the next minute your the odd man out. For a man who came from humble beginnings, to the white Stetson wearing quiet trainer on the big stage, he has remained a constant. I guess he doesn’t want to pay the price that some have paid to be the center stage man. He didn’t want to be a manager, he just wanted to train his horses.

The good news is that after he retires and takes a well deserved break, someday he might return on a much smaller scale. In the meantime, we are seeing the end of an era. One of the last small guys who made it to the big leagues. It must be an incredible price to pay, and most will never know. So the next time you see Larry Jones in the paddock saddling one of his runners, in his trademark white Stetson, know this is the end of an era. The good guys do walk off into the sunset.

Santa Anita is Back in Business


September 23rd, 2008 by Horstradamus

The Autumn Oak Tree meeting at Santa Anita is kicking off on Wednesday. This would be news for all horse players to take heed, but this year is one that you will want to watch going into the Breeders’ Cup.

The Pro-Ride surface, a synthetic surface, has replaced the non-draining Cushion Track. The two day, 14 race, $25 million Breeders’ Cup will take place October 24th and 25th. This Saturday there will be a bevy of racing action that will help gauge competition in the upcoming weeks.

There will be six G-1 races, and are “Win and You’re In” races. This should help clear the picture, as these races historically have played significant parts for the Breeders’ Cup picture.

All trainers on track are glowing about the surface, and feel that it is very consistent. There are a few trainers that still hold not such positive views (e.g. Bob Baffert). They still remain on the fence, and have not given the thumbs up as of yet. They like what they see so far, but only time will tell the truth.

Baffert has watched the cool morning workouts, and looks forward to when the horses race on the surface during the warm afternoon. I optimistically hope all trainers get on board. It would be a very solid colony as it has always been in past years, and losing a few trainers kinda takes away from the California feel. Baffert is that cool California boy. I think he will get on board, and to much surprise, he will not only race, he will assume his dominant numbers.

The Euros Are Coming, The Euros Are Coming!


September 23rd, 2008 by Horstradamus

The clock is ticking down to Breeders’ Cup, and we are starting to focus on the runners. But some are making their way across the sea, and they may be worth a hard look before you make final decisions.

I will be studying the Euro horses a lot more because many more look like they are coming. Many are going to try the Poly. The #1 horse in Europe is Duke of Marmalade and it looks like he will prep on Poly in Europe this week, and if all goes well he is coming to the Classic. I can tell you this, if Curlin does not bring his “A” game, the Duke will win. Big Brown will not beat the Duke.

Here is a list of Euro’s who may be coming:
Eagle Mountain is trained by Dekock and has been out most of the year.  He has a big shot if he comes to the turf, but needs a good return race to set him up.
New Approach, from the Aiden O’Brien team, has beat the Duke earlier this year and is running in the Arc.  He may be coming for the turf.
Zarkava is an undefeated filly that is looking at the filly turf.
Goldikova is an older mare trained by Freddie Head that may go in the filly turf or the mile. If Zarkava does not come, she is a cinch.
Tamayuz is a colt trained by Freddie Head and is headed to the mile. He preps in the QE2 this week.
Red Rocks is training up to the cup and we already know he can win.
Plan is a 3yr old that is a notch below but may still be better than what we got for the turf.
Soldier of Fortune is high quality and if he comes, he will be tough in the turf or the marathon.
Getaway, Tartan Bearer, Casual Conquest all look like the Arc will be next and then will see if they want to ship in.
Spirit One surprised in the Arlington Million and is said to be coming back; maybe for the Classic.
Winchester is coming back.  He won the Secretariat but is a notch below the top dogs.
Ravens Pass is coming for the mile and is one of the top milers in all of Europe.
Archipenko ran 2nd in the Million and is said to be coming to the Turf.

And finally the top miler in all of Europe, Henry the Navigator, is said to be pointing to the Mile or the Classic.

The last time the cup was in California, the Euro’s held their own. This will give you a list to watch, and to keep track of the shippers looking to invade.

Old Friends


September 22nd, 2008 by Horstradamus

On Saturday, October 18 there will be a very interesting race taking place at Santa Anita. It will be the “Living Legends Race.” This is one that you will not want to miss, so be sure to mark your calendar.

The race itself will have stars that we have watched over the years. It will feature eight Hall of Fame jockeys.  They are: Jerry Bailey, 51; Pat Day, 55; Sandy Hawley, 59; Julie Krone, 45; Chris McCarron, 53; Gary Stevens, 45; and Jacinto Vasquez, 64.

Cordero has been out of the saddle the longest (since 1992), and returned to ride one more race back in 1995. He has ridden over 7,000 winners and earned $164 million during his career. After beginning his career in 1960 in Puerto Rico, Cordero was known to be an aggressive rider. He is now agent to one of the most talented riders in the country, John Velasquez.

The race will be at a sprint distance, and will have pari-mutuel wagering. The riders will carry 126 pounds aboard California breds. The choice of mounts will be decided by a draw selection. So, everyone has the same chance.

This race should be a great deal of fun for both competitors and fans alike. To watch our heroes of years gone by match up and roar down the stretch will bring a tear to your eye. Here is an estimation on how the race will unfold: “And they’re off!” - Taking lead where he was so comfortable for years is Pat Day nursing the speed of whoever he rides; Sandy Hawley and Jerry Bailey saving ground along the inside; Julie Krone will be about two off of the rail staying away from Cordero who will riding in fifth place, and trying to come through a hole that you couldn’t throw a playing card. Chris McCarron will be content to patiently wait for his one run as we watched for years, and bringing up the rear will be (professional golfer, and well known closer) Jacinto Vasquez… The rest will be pure excitement as they thunder down the stretch. For some it could be the last time, and for the fan, the last time to see one of the best professional groups of riders in our lives. No matter who wins, it is sure to be remembered for years to come. But if I was forced to make a wager, it would be Jerry Bailey just edging out Gary Stevens at the wire. Jerry made very few mistakes in his career, and you can bet he’ll be doing what he did best.

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