Archive for the ‘Help/Educational Articles’ Category

Do Your Homework!

by Ed Meyer

posted on February 5, 2010 in Handicapping, Help/Educational Articles | No Comments >>

Mom and Dad were right. Just do your homework and buckle down. It will payoff in the long run…

Most get complacent at times during the year. You need to have a few habits locked in to help your bottom line. Here are a few simple suggestions that will keep your accounts heading in the right direction.

1. Keep a log of all of your wagers, wins, losses, and daily totals. This will allow you to see your money in action, and keeping a simple log will allow you to redirect any short falls.

2. Focus on one or two tracks to wager. If you try anymore, you will start chasing your tail. Stick to your knitting!

3. Use a data service to supplement your handicapping. You will find this helps in keeping up to speed, and staying in the groove with your plays. WinningPonies is a great site, and I have seen them all. Easy to use, and is up to the latest minute by not putting out information 72 hours in advance, like some services. For the many players I have come across, most use a service to work with their handicapping.

4. Play hot rider / trainer combos. I would use 20% as a benchmark for this stat. They will win more than most, and have a proven team work plan.

5. Look for a change of equipment and a red-hot workout. A runner cannot change equipment off of a win. Sometimes you will see a horse run decent, and then comes the change up and hot work to show they are ready.

You need to keep these few tips handy before you make a wager.  You need to start back up strong for 2010. Sometimes we forget, and practicing strong habits can only make us stronger at the windows.

Good luck!

Dodge The Tax Man

by Ed Meyer

posted on January 26, 2010 in General Discussion, Help/Educational Articles | No Comments >>

We all like to beat the man…. The only constant is death and taxes.. One has to be for sure, but the other can be beaten.

I love the dime super. It is a cool way around the tax man. I remember my first, which made me a believer. It was at Keeneland, and I had the dime super ten times and it paid $200 for a dime payoff. If it had been for a $1, well, he would have gotten me..

I told my boss that I loved the fifty cent trifecta bet. Same concept, and the same game… He felt that people would bet less. Not the case at all. When I hit my big super at Keeneland, I didn’t stop after I punched out a copy. I punched out ten. Actually, it would have been more than I would have bet….

He didn’t buy it, and he still thinks people will stop betting when they get in at a short price. If you survey the crowd, maybe 1 out of 20 would pull this.. The end result is letting people into a new wager at a lower price. It also allows them control. Add in the ability to smack the man, and it gets that much sweeter.

Many believe that tracks have casino philosophy. Not true.. They take all of your money and like it. The track gets a takeout of every bet. We want you to win every day, and hopefully we can get another visit or two out of you each month. Factor that in, and the handle goes up…

Just think about it. Keep the wager located to two or three windows with clerks, and on all of the self bet machines. This won’t cause a log jam, and raise the handle. And in the end, you won’t get a nasty gram from Uncle Sam claiming you owe him money.

Turfway Tips

by Ed Meyer

posted on December 2, 2009 in Educational Articles, Handicapping, Help/Educational Articles | 2 Comments >>

If you want the inside scoop on what to look for, and what a player needs to have in hand, you are in the right place at the right time.  Just download your data, and take a look at these little nuggets.

There is no exact diagram or design for winning at Turfway Park. But here are a few tips that need to be examined to help you make your decisions.

Six furlong races – In my past experiences with the oval, I feel that you will want to stick with closers, or runners that have an ability to rate and pounce down the lane. I would not shy away from the outside posts. They are as even as the inside, and they have an advantage at times. The poly track is a flat surface. There is no crown or banked area as horses head into the turn. Pay close attention to closers from the back of the pack. Silky Sullivan would have loved this oval.

Six and a half panels – Once again, stalkers and closers rule the day. Don’t be afraid to watch for those at the back of the pack. I won’t say that some will go wire to wire, but the percentages lay with the patient closers.

Five and a half races – The rule holds even more …. Suffice it to say, the back of the pack can be the place to be.

One mile to a mile and a sixteenth – These races play more to front end runners, and those who just lay off. Funny thing, the longer they go, the better the speed.

Look for shippers from Keeneland, Churchill, and Hawthorne. No matter where the Chicago horses go, they run very well… Pay close attention to those who get a trip over the track, or who have been working at Keeneland or Turfway. They are made up of the same surface.

Riders that warrant a big look are:

John Court – He can ride tall in the saddle against this crew. He used to torture them at Ellis Park.

John McKee – This young lad always looks good in the saddle.  Many times he has been compared to Pat Day.

Israel Ocampo – This fella’ looks good in the saddle. He has never really gotten the quality of horses to show his ability, but now he will. Look for him on speed runners. He loves a quick break.

Leandro Goncalves – This is going to be my best bet of the meet.  Barring any injuries, he is very talented. This should be his meet. He had one of toughest upbringings as a child. But, he is as kind and happy as one could be. He is young, energetic, and patient. Add them up, and you have a contender.

So, here it is. The best place to get your data, and a little inside info from playing the oval on a regular basis. I sure hope you get a chance to wager on a few races, and be sure to tune in this week to our Internet show as we will have Turfway Park President Bob Elliston as our special guest.

Enjoy the winter, and spring will be here before you know it……

Take A Break

by Ed Meyer

posted on August 20, 2009 in General Discussion, Handicapping, Help/Educational Articles | No Comments >>

I love to play the races. Plain and simple, I am a fan. I wish racing would happen round the clock on TV and the computer, and you could bet anytime you wanted. Oh, it already does!  So what is the problem?

As much as I love to play, I play selectively. If you watched fifteen signals and “tap danced” with all of them, you can bet your bankroll would be gone. No matter how good you are, just take the number of wagers, and be sure to take out the % takeout from the tracks. Now, factor in the losers. See what I mean?

I had a grandpa, who loved to play the races. Now, this is before the simulcast explosion. He surely would have loved that. He was a plumber by trade, and loved to smoke Dutch Masters cigars, and tinker in his garage, when he didn’t have the means to gamble. Oh, my dad would save him from time to time and pick him up to run out for the last few at old Latonia in Kentucky. That is how I fell in love with the game. Being with the two guys I loved most in my life.

When papaw didn’t have the money to play, he would adjourn to his garage workshop and tinker with his tools, and find scrap metal to cash-in. He would take the needed break. He would return refreshed. His bankroll would be filled, and his mind would be open. My dad would be driving, and I would be in the back seat… The game was on, and the adventure began…This time is hard to find for gamblers. There is no downtime. It is with this idea, that I came up with ‘plan B’ to this dilemma.

You need to follow NO more than three circuits. Of those three, make one of them your favorite. The time of year can help you change up, and this way you are not stepping outside of your boundaries. You choose ten races you would like to play. Now, find the best six. Of the best six, I want you to make your biggest wagers on two races. No more, no less. Don’t change your habits, and don’t let others influence you. In papaw’s terms of going to the garage, this is money management. You trust your 401-K to professionals. So why not your gambling money to your closest friend, you…..

Every time you find yourself wanting to become an expert at a small oval, or the larger one with marquee races, go ahead and dial up professional data. This will allow you to stay informed without being distracted. It also allows you to keep focus on your money.

Twenty years ago, seeking information systems would have been a smack in the chops. But today it is good sense. Times change, but the song remains the same.

I can still hear papaw out in the garage. It has been almost 25 years, and his cigar still roams the air. I think more than ever, he would have spent more time in the garage these days. Not because he didn’t know what to do, but it was because he knew in his own way a time to drop back, and stay fresh…

Let’s Start Our Bankroll!

by Ed Meyer

posted on May 6, 2009 in Handicapping, Help/Educational Articles, Other Events | No Comments >>

The Preakness is a little more than a week away, and we need to recover by getting a roll ready to fire with on leg two of the Triple Crown. Don’t worry, there is time.

I hate to advise straight chalk. I take what I can get, and when I can get it. But, you can raise a bankroll and have a little fun in doing so. Let us begin.

First dial up WinningPonies.com, and pick your favorite track. That gets you half the way there already. You have your info, and the oval you love. Now, you need $50 and we’ll get started.

** You find a horse that looks like a mortal lock. You are shooting to get 1-2 on your money, or a total of $3 back. You can find this on at least five to six runners a day, and make a place parlay. Five races doesn’t sound like much? Look at this:

$50 to place at $3 = $75

$75 to place at $3 = $ 112.50

$112 to place, and your pony pays $3.40 = $190.40

$190 to place and your chalk pays $2.80 = $266.00

$266.00, and hold your breath. You get lucky, and hit a $2.60 runner = $ 345.80 is your return from your wagering.

You turned a profit of $295.80 minus your $50 investment. Not bad, huh?? So, let’s play this Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. WinningPonies can do their part, and with the small fields at Churchill, River Downs, and Northern California, you are ready to fire. Think about it. You are burning up the chalk, and keeping it to five plays in a day. Bring on the Preakness, we’ll be ready……

What Bias??

by Ed Meyer

posted on January 1, 2009 in General Discussion, Handicapping, Help/Educational Articles | No Comments >>

Has anyone been paying attention to The Big “A”? The speed is being run down, stalked and caught at the wire. What is going on? Once upon a time, whoever had the lead at the 1/4 pole was getting ready for the camera.

I have been watching very closely over the past few days.

Two days ago, I was wagering at Aqueduct and I saw a winner blow them away by daylight. Now that is par for the course, but what caught my eye was the race for place, when three runners were closing lights out. This was something I wanted to focus upon before my next wager.

OK. Now the speedy rail has been king for a long time, but to pick up the pace around the hoop and roll past the leaders is something to watch.

I attribute the change to be the track surface. I want you to check the “weather” on the toteboard at WinningPonies.com, before you lock and load your wagers. Right now it has plenty of moisture, and the runners are able to get a hold of the track.

Usually the track comes up a powdery, cuppy oval that makes speed look like a ride on a conveyor belt. In the old days, nothing would win outside of the five path. On Thursday, I saw a 9 path runner jump out nicely and take command. This is a nice change, but how long will it last?

When you see the track take on that light brown sandy look, rest assured that the old cuppy oval is back in fashion. Cuppy is when speed rules, as it is hard to grab down deep, and many closers look like they are spinning their wheels.

As I said before, be sure to use the weather update on WinningPonies.com and you will be ahead of the game.

Do You Gamble Or Wager?

by Ed Meyer

posted on December 23, 2008 in General Discussion, Handicapping, Help/Educational Articles | 1 Comment >>

Besides “Who do you like,” the question I hear the most is “How do you bet?” There’s no easy answer, but I’ll give it a shot.

First of all, handicapping is easy; betting is hard. But beyond the actual execution of bets, there are many other factors going on that need to be understood if you are going to have a chance.

I want to make money. Sometimes that means winning more than losing, sometimes that means walking away when I’m ahead and sometimes that means walking away when I am behind. My goal is not to break the bank, to be carried out on the shoulders of my fellow bettors or have the simulcast site ban me because I am winning too much. For every anecdote about someone that went to the track with a small bankroll and hit it big, there are far more tales of bettors not picking up their stack and walking away ahead.

So I think it makes sense to ask yourself WHY you bet. But you also have to take a hard look at yourself and examine whether your behavior is in line with your goal. I have a friend that I am convinced bets in a way that increases the chance that the next race could enter his Tale of Woe Hall of Fame. He has every imaginable bad beat story. In fact, if I wasn’t with him and saw first-hand how no lead was safe or how the wire always seems to come up before his rallying horse can get there, I wouldn’t believe it myself. I once told him that “Doctor Melfi would say that you want to lose.”

If your goal is to have fun, make sure that you have fun. If your goal is to have a life-changing score, make sure that you fall out of love with odds-on favorites. If your goal is to go to a wagering site and enjoy talking to your buddies, bet in a way that will enable you to do that for many years.

Here’s one you see all the time. Most horseplayers I know would consider themselves “Old School.” In between races you’ll hear discussions about Terrell Owens and his excessive end-zone celebrations. Yet, the same horseplayer will overreact to wins and losses to their own detriment.

The “Old School” horseplayer will have a nice score and then start betting way beyond their comfort zone. They’ll lose focus from winning and start making money management mistakes. Without realizing it, they are behaving like T.O., except his celebrations seem to make him more money while the “Old School” horseplayer is wasting precious bankroll dollars. The advice of football coaches to act like you’ve done it before after you score a touchdown, can be applied when you have a big score. Act like it’s no big deal and you might get another one.

Do you keep accurate records? Some account wagering companies do a good job of breaking down your betting records by track or wager type. If they do, use it. You need to know what your strengths and weaknesses are and record-keeping can go a long way to get you to divert your focus toward more profitable situations.

Handicapping Magic

by Ed Meyer

posted on September 13, 2008 in Handicapping, Help/Educational Articles, Horse Racing, WinningPonies.com | No Comments >>

OK, here you are and you have your WinningPonies.com info in hand. You are more than halfway there, but you need to know the 1-2-3’s of finding the treasure.

Use the tier rating system. This is more than just a list of favored runners as some sheets use. It lists them into tiers. This can be extremely helpful for your multi-leg wagers. I think you should always use the top tier horses, but selectively use a second tier runner for a price. Most data has a list of three runners and says, go play these. That can be a little discouraging, and having them broke down into why you like them and allowing you to find a hidden value runner, can make all of the difference in the world.

Utilize the class drop down angle. You will see them with a red arrow moving a horse up in class, or a green arrow dropping down to face lesser company. This is good stuff. Not only are you getting horses ranked, but you know going in where they are as far as class level. This factor, in addition to the tiers of runners, can show you who looks like a player, and who is facing what level of class at a glance. Easy to use, and effective if used properly.

Keep a keen eye on the jockey/trainer changes.  The selections not only show the move, but use the old rider’s record at the the track where the horse last raced, and the new rider’s current record at the current track. This is red-hot advice. This is starting to clear away the fog, and the race is coming in bright and clear.

You have selections based on a tiered level of ability. A section that shows if a runner is on a downward trend, or is stepping up to the next level. The last part I use is the rider information. I have never seen a horse go the winner’s circle without a rider, and you never will. By adding all this together, it can be the difference between a winning day and a losing day.

Brother Can You Spare A Dime?

I love playing exotics. Everything from the opening double to whatever is offered in the final race of the day. It gives the player a chance to get out of a hole, or better the bankroll before heading to the car.

A wager that has become popular for players at all levels is the 10-cent Superfecta. This is a very good way to stretch your gambling budget by playing runners that normally you may not have used when the wager was a dollar minimum. Take a look at the runners on WinningPonies.com and you can speculate with a runner on the bubble. It may not be in your top three selections, but if it hits, it could be light out. That is really a nice way to take your shot.

In addition to taking a chance with your middle level runners searching for a price, you can beat the tax man. Yes, you heard it right. Beat the man….. By having a sweet payoff at $1 that pays over $602, you have to fill out the needed tax forms and report it as income. Now, by using the 10-cent version you can change a payoff from $602 to $60.20.  You just beat the tax man……

You can still bet the same amount. Whatever your comfort level would be.  If it is $5 – $1,000 it is all the same. You can beat the taxes, and save yourself some added cash. In a game that doesn’t offer many opportunities to beat the system, along comes a wager that puts you in the drivers seat. So, dig down in the couch and hang onto the extra change. It could put you in the drivers seat.

Double Your Pleasure

by Ed Meyer

posted on August 18, 2008 in General Discussion, Help/Educational Articles, WinningPonies.com | 1 Comment >>

A forgotten wager that has fallen by the wayside is the Daily Double. This wager makes the player choose the winner of two races in advance of the first wager. Sound like fun? It still is…..

To play doubles, you need to do your handicapping ahead. This makes your selection process easier, and WinningPonies.com can be an excellent way to carve out this wager. Playing a “parlay”, where you play the winner of one race and bet it all back in the next, does not make financial sense.

You will have two “takeouts” which are the % the track takes out for expenses. This only happens if you play a parlay. But, if you play a double, you will only have ONE takeout…. I know, it doesn’t sound like much. The average takeout for exotic wagers is 20%. If play a parlay, you face 40% taken out of your wagering dollar. A double allows you to face ONE takeout.

Double your pleasure, and double your advantage. With any gaming, you want to find any edge that allows you to take away the house advantage, or in racing, you don’t have to face another dreaded takeout. I would suggest doing your work in advance, and placing your faith in a service that has shown a proven track record. Go ahead, jump on in and double up. This can be a fun wager, and has been around longer than any other type of exotic wager in the game.