Archive for the ‘Breeders Cup’ Category

Breeders’ Cup Odds and Ends

by Ed Meyer

posted on November 13, 2009 in Breeders Cup, General Discussion | No Comments >>

The two days that took place last week were enough to fill our plate for the year. I love to hear the stories of what happened, who went, and who can’t pay their rent this month… Overall, the weekend brings out the best in most of us, and the devil in others.

I have a friend who is a VP in banking. He and his gal are from Kentucky, and they traveled out to California for the big doings. No real surprise there, but the rest of the story is that they returned married. He wanted to celebrate the biggest day of his sport, with his partner for life. My only comments to him was, “I bet she will always remember this as being her worst day at the track in years to come!” All kidding aside – best wishes, Kevin and Mary….

There are two fellas that come to the track three to four times a week together. I like to call them the “Siamese Twins.” They are never more than ten feet apart. I surely don’t know how their wives put up with them. They pretty much are $5 – $10 players.  They always pull together and make all sorts of wagers. The biggest day in their history was $3,000 over the last twenty years. This year the “Twins” killed the weekend and rolled into a $46,000 venture. I am guessing the wives will never complain again… Good job guys…

“Lucky” made his way out there to meet some of his cronies from Vegas. This guy couldn’t pick the winner of a race they just made official.  Hence, the name fits the man.. He made his way out, and lost his rump on day one.. He borrowed a total of $200 from his buddies for Day #2, and he made a little comeback… He paid back the $200, and went home $8,000 to the good … Even a broken clock is right twice a day!

These were just a few stories that were happy. Working at the track, you meet people from all walks of life. They are all fun, and even the bad ones are tolerable.  Oh, I do know of a few that went broke, and one missed his flight… A lady player got so drunk she fell asleep in the sun and became the target of many pictures…

The overall: racing is like life.. Each day you walk into the track and you never know just what is going to happen, or if the outcome will be good…. But we go anyway, and along the way we meet some of the best people in the world…

Good luck, and see you at the races……

Back Up Your Words…

by Ed Meyer

posted on November 11, 2009 in Breeders Cup, General Discussion | No Comments >>

From time to time, we all find ourselves talking big mouth. Sometimes it can be attributed to alcohol, and other times to raw emotions. But, in Thoroughbred racing, we back up our opinions with cold hard cash.

Think about if you were asked to put up $100,000 to run your own horse in a daunting race. Your charge was not the overwhelming favorite, or was it a short field. Hell, it wasn’t even the only track you have ran or trained on. So, do you get out the checkbook?

If you are owner Ken Kinakin, the offer was put on the table. If he wanted to play in the $2 million Sprint, he had to pony up the jack. So, do you get out your checkbook yet?

His answer was yes…. If he wanted in, he had to pay. Dancing in Silks would be supplemented to run in this six furlong dash. There was no guarantee, and that didn’t stop his check…

He believed in his horse.. He wanted to play, and thought he had enough steam to go for the wall. Well, sometimes gut feelings and last minute calls are the maker of true competitors. On this day, it turned out to be the right move.

Dancing in Silks won in a four horse photo finish. Heavily favored Zensational was in this field, and taking a great deal of the public money. Dancing in Silks was ridden by Breeders’ Cup first timer winner Joel Rosario. She was 15-1, and paid her backers at the windows sweetly.

Trainer Carla Gaines tried to talk Kinakin out of the move, but he would have no part of that and said, “Let’s go.”

We all like to see ourselves as go-get-em types. But the truth is short and sweet. “Fortune favors the bold.”

One Hump Or Two?

by Ed Meyer

posted on November 11, 2009 in Breeders Cup, General Discussion | No Comments >>

On November 7th, 2009, a young man stepped out of the sand dunes and into the winner’s circle. It was unlikely, and probably not part of his plans. But on this day, he was the toast of the town.

The 27-year-old former camel jockey, Ahmad Ajtebi, stepped up his game quite a bit. He went from being a one time camel man, to a professional rider going to get his picture taken on the biggest day of the year.

Ajtebi wanted to raise his game. He is riding for the powerful Godolphin stable. Trainer Saeed bin Suroor is recognized as one of the rising stars of the game. He tried his hand at every jockey school around the world. I guess the travel paid off.

It was on Dubai World Cup night when he took the world by storm. He won two races on the best day of racing in the desert.  When Vale of York stormed to win on this day, it now leads to Derby dreams for the Godolphin clan once again.

A winner for his third time out of six starts, Vale of York was a second place finisher in the Group-I Gran Criterium in Italy. This gave an impression that he may hold a bit of promise. I guess that is what makes the win so special. A horse that was a cut below most of the field, and a former camel rider taking his game to the stratosphere.

Ajtebi acknowledged this as one of the greatest in his life. To win at the top level gives one hope. It shows promise. Oh, and by the way he schooled Garrett Gomez down the lane, would put him in a handful of people that could pull off that stunt.

Godolphin always comes loaded. That will be a bet you will always win. But the victory at this level with Vale of York probably wasn’t expected at first asking. Maybe for all of  the billions spent on horses, they may have found the jewel of the desert in the most unlikely of places.

Greatness

by Ed Meyer

posted on November 9, 2009 in Breeders Cup, General Discussion | No Comments >>

Zenyatta in BC Classic Post Parade

Zenyatta in BC Classic Post Parade

On rare occasions we are on hand to see great things happen in our life. Thoroughbred racing is a sport, but as with all sports, there are defining moments that will be etched in our mind forever.

The Classic is worth $5 million. It summons some of the greatest talent known to humanity. Some could not make it for injury, some for early retirement, and others ducked away from the pressure. But on this date, you can remember the day you saw greatness.

There was a field of 13 assembled, and Quality Road had to be taken out, due to a scratch on his back leg. All had to be pulled out, and the gate assembled again. A mare facing the boys was tossed out by many (including myself). Many didn’t think that she had what it took to get the job done against the older boys. She came in with a perfect 13/13 record. A little over two minutes later, she moved to the 14/14 range.  Man, how I wish I could take back those words…

She broke on the wrong lead, and was dead last by many. This would not have been a problem against many of the gals she has been facing, but today it made those who backed her at the windows draw a breath and give up hope. When the final quarter pole came into view, we could see the girl weaving up the rail against some of the best in the world. Mike Smith pulled her off at about the 1/8th pole, and did her duty of swinging wide and and gunning them down. It had the look of a lawnmower going over fresh spring grass. She was a monster, and now for the naysayers there was proof that she was that good.

For the longest time, Rachel Alexandra was being summoned to face her in this race. Lucky that she didn’t. For a filly that accomplished so much, she would have been another name on the also ran list.

I am glad they didn’t face off now…. I am glad that Rachel comes back in 2010, and Zenyatta goes into history. There is only one question that begs to be answered after this day. Is she “Horse of the Year?” I think today answered that question. She beat all of the boys, and did it in the same fashion that she whipped the girls. Today was a day that goes into the books. This race was the highlight of the two-day event, and Zenyatta proved to be quite the best.

Ladies’ Night [Free Selections]

by Ed Meyer

posted on November 6, 2009 in Breeders Cup, Free Picks and Tips | No Comments >>

Love is in the air. It is all about the ladies, and today is their day. I love a few plays, and W/P has helped me maximize the value end.

Race #3 – BC Marathon…. This is the only race that I am going to play, where a gal will not rule the day. A top tier runner is going to smash this field. #6 Mastery (9-5) should enjoy the long distance. I don’t think you will get 9-5, and this is why I needed help finding prices to finish out my exactas and trifectas. But, I do love Mastery

Race #4 – Pure Clan….. I cannot believe this top tier runner is 5-1….Garrett Gomez is in the saddle, and I love him on big days. She is 14/15 ITM, and has the “monster workout” banner, and  ”has improved” icon. This is a great sign, and I have to love the price. Bob Holthus is the trainer, and the rail can be a good place going 1 1/4 on the weeds. I had to seek the lower tiers to find that price level that makes my wager an IRS signer. I like my chances, and with a little racing luck good things may happen.

The card overall is strong. These are just a couple of runners I like. There are a bevy of races where there are some double tough gals. I think we may see some new stars for the future on this day. So, be sure and look beyond the top tier. There can be great value there, but sometimes you have to dig a little deeper to find the gold. There is plenty of easy chalk, and you can even turn the lower price plays into triple digit payoffs very easily.

Best of luck today!

Be Ready [Free Selections]

by Ed Meyer

posted on November 6, 2009 in Breeders Cup, Free Picks and Tips | No Comments >>

The best handicappers in the world need to be ready. There are no inside info tips, and nobody is using this race for a prep. One thing is for sure, you will get your money’s worth…

I have had the data from W/P in my hand all day. I always find something that I like, but it just so happens that I see eight races where we are dead on. My long shot plays are right there. It is good to have a plan, but when it is validated it makes it that much sweeter.

The weekend should be good to me, if only half of the runners go as planned.

I thought I would be alone, or pulled between runners. When I saw the tier levels and comments on paper, I began to write my bets in ink. It is rare when there are so many runners that have a price appear in the same order. I guess that is why, more than ever, you need to get your data downloaded.

On Saturday, I really liked Desert Code in the BC Turf Sprint. When I saw the 20-1 shot in the top tier, I started planning my wagers. For Race #4, when Fatal Bullet was in tier #1 against Zensational, I could not believe my eyes. I have been waiting for this runner since catching my first glimpse in the Kentucky Cup. At 9-2, that is like a birthday present…

The capper for me was that in Race #6, the BC Mile, I liked Court Vision at a solid price. He was in the first tier at 12-1. He had the “should improve” banner, and that was on my mind for quite sometime. He is facing Goldikova, and that says it all right there….

So, if you have not downloaded your data. Get to it, and I think you will be surprised. W/P does very well overall, and on big days they rise to the top with some runners you may have overlooked.  In fact, just today (Thursday), they nailed the Pick 6 at Oak Tree!  So, I am hoping for a big weekend, and I started today with a few spot plays. I was able to build a little bankroll in the last hours that may help me cross the finish line.

Best of luck to you, and I hope we see some great racing. Oh, and by the way, don’t be afraid to take some shots, as prices will be all around these two days.

In A Nutshell

by Ed Meyer

posted on November 4, 2009 in Breeders Cup, Handicapping | No Comments >>

To uncover the Breeders’ Cup can be like finding the Holy Grail…. Things can be overwhelming.  Just take a deep breath and take a peek at the following.

The handicapping gurus are leaning toward the stalkers and closers in all races. You can throw out speed, and look for the back of the pack runners.

Be ready for surprises. The price runners can jump up at every time, and bite you in the wallet. Stretch out to get these runners in your tickets. Don’t waste your time over-capping for one winner. Be sure to use multiple runners that need a good combing over for exactas and trifectas.

It is wise to reach beyond your normal comfort level. Box up those price runners, as everyone is trying during this time.

At Santa Anita, here are a few ideas of who is winning from where:

Stalkers – 14/32  – Deep closers – 12/32 – Euros – 5/32 – and the speedsters – 2/32……

Foreign runners have taken well to the turf course. Don’t be afraid that they will not acclimate to the heat and be washed out. They seem to love the California racing. Speed is 2/24, and Closers are 15/24… Most of the foreign horses have had a start in the USA, and have had finishes of 2nd place or better. I would focus on closers, and don’t discount layoff runners for top barns.

Some of the smallest payoffs have come in the Ladies Classic – $3.00, and the highest have come in the Marathon – $26.80, Classic -$29.00, and the Turf Sprint $75.00. The rest lay in between, and it is up to you to find the value. History has been a good factor in finding which races favor chalk, and the ones that lean towards prices.

Playing straight tri’s and supers seldom works. You will need to build down, and you can find this on your lower tiers. There is great value to be had on theses levels. Don’t be afraid to stretch out.. This is a day where you will want to bring along a bankroll, or find partners in bigger tickets.

Your final stop will happen this Thursday night on our Internet show. We will break down both days, and offer out some great exotic plays. So be sure and tune in, and pick up the latest info to prepare with your data to find winners.  It starts at 8:00 p.m. EST / 5:00p.m. PST, and you can call in if you have a hot runner or insight into the races. You can contact us at 1-888-346-9144.

Best of luck, and hope to talk to you on Thursday night….

Golden Ticket

by Ed Meyer

posted on October 30, 2009 in Breeders Cup, General Discussion | No Comments >>

Today, I had three calls from very good players. The odds that three called on one day is high, but the ask on their mind was not over the fence. But, I could not help anyone on this day.

The Breeders’ Cup is a powerhouse. They charge a GREAT PERCENTAGE of takeout and the tracks do no real business. It would seem that on the biggest days of the year, the powers that be would want to include all of the little tracks that follow the sport daily.

For all major events, there are tickets that are held. Do you think the Super Bowl or World Series do not have any tickets earmarked for other teams? Maybe they do not give away the house, but they should be included in all events.

How about holding 100 decent tickets for each track? How many would they be giving away? Keep it for the tracks that hold a three month or better meet. Now, you are talking 30 track? That sounds like sending 3000 of the best players from around the country to the event. Also, add in the ability to BUY upscale tickets. Don’t give away the posh seats, but allow tracks to cater to players. This allows for over 8 – 10,000 to be sold to the general public: celebs who don’t care about racing, and the connections of the racing stars.

I am a big fan of getting the best players to the event. There is still plenty of expense, and the free ticket ensures the players will be there. Funny, give away a ticket and the perceived value is huge….I love to bring in the biggies. This will help handle, and keep the stands full.. Hell, the B/C kills the tracks with the takeout, so they might as well pony up and get some big players there..

This is an event where the senators and local mayors can stay home. The action carries itself, and you can’t beat that. The players come to roost, and you might as well make hay while the sun shines. This idea can be used for the Oaks, Derby, Preakness, Belmont, and some other marquee events with a smaller allotment. Go ahead, and send the tickets to the management of tracks. It is not a perk for them, but to be used for their best players. What a way to repay our best customers…. The marketing and publicity departments would be hopping. I was there last year, and the stands were half empty on a beautiful weekend. The tickets were overpriced, and as travelers, we were killed before making bet number one. Needless to say, I will be on my couch betting early, and enjoying the action…..Too bad, I would have loved to have sent players like me to the big dance.

New Plays

by Ed Meyer

posted on October 29, 2009 in Breeders Cup, General Discussion | No Comments >>

I do have to say that I like the idea of the wager of playing which rider will ride the most winners on the B/C cards. This takes it to the player, and offers a new twist on a great weekend…

Players from around the globe will wager on this. It may take a few years to catch fire, but I bet it will do just fine. It kinda reminds of Vegas and the prop board during football season. I love to drop a few wagers, and have some fun. I think this will fit the same bill.

As Breeders’ Cup approaches, we will start narrowing the factors. Believe it or not, it is still just a bit early to make any final decisions. This wager got me thinking about that right out of the gate. We have heard about the number of horses certain stables will be bringing to the weekend. But, you have to wait until the draw before you make your final moves.

Right now, if you held me to the task, I would take $10 on: Garrett Gomez, Desormeaux, and Mike Smith…. It all depends on the Euros for me… I may find a bit of value on a European rider, if the price looks to right… But, one thing is for certain. The bet will take off…

Maybe next year, you will be able to do “Daily Doubles” with the riders. One day to the next… I guess as a player I like the idea of the new opportunity.

Too Much To Play

by Ed Meyer

posted on October 25, 2009 in Breeders Cup, General Discussion | No Comments >>

On Breeders’ Cup Day, there will be a HUGE handicapping contest at Santa Anita. It cost $10,000 to enter, and that is a little steep.  The contest is $2,500 to the pot, and $7,500 goes towards a live bankroll. They have quite a few money people across the pond who ponied up to be there. But, think about this before you make a final decision. They are capping this at 80 entries, and there are 8 left if you have the jack to enter….

Back to the big contest. If they have 80 people @ $2,500 per person, it comes out to $200,000 to play for. Now, submit this for your approval. Since the B/C goes around the globe, make it a $200 entry contest. All can play online, or make your wagers at your local track. Let’s be kind and say that there would be 2,000 around the globe who would play… That gives it a nice pool of $400,000 prize money. Make it the same rules as the NTRA contest. First, take 20% of the prize money and use it to send those to the finals in Vegas… That is $80,000 to send players. How many seats do you think would be available?  This does not make it a rich player’s game. It opens it up to everyone in the game. The contest would be available to everyone at a reduced price for more money…. There would be NO money taken out by Santa Anita. This would be a nice way of rewarding players. As far as creating handle, don’t you think that the players who enter would be making wagers on the biggest day of the year? Open the doors to everyone… Don’t have 80 people dressed to the nines in a private room. Open it up to the world. They still bet through the same hub. No problem there, so why not take a try?

Oh, I guess it is easy to sit back and play couch quarterback… But, when you make the mistake of not opening up the biggest days to the everyday people, you create problems. Do you think the 80 people in the “Gold Room” will bet more than every outlet in the world? I think not, and the idea is good. But not on the biggest day of racing… Open the gates, and let them play. Invest in the future and let everyone in… Everyone wins…. Oh, that 2,000 person estimate is low… I see 500 or better play in an online contest in November that qualifies 25 players. This would be the world’s biggest, and what better day than on the biggest day of racing… I would play for sure… I know many others that would as well….