Horse Racing Tips and Picks from WinningPonies.com

New Kid On The Block?


August 29th, 2008 by Horstradamus

It is no secret that Alan Garcia has picked up his game and moved it into the ranks of jockeys to watch.  This 22-year-old rider bagged 5 wins on the card last Saturday, and is dangerous on the lead and off the pace.

Garcia’s agent Tony Micallef may have gotten him into a bit of a quandary. He was supposed to ride Alaazo in the Pennsylvania Derby for Ahmed Zayat. But there is a fly in the ointment. Garcia is leading the Saratoga meet by three wins.

Now, for a young rider in New York to take down the Spa is a resume builder for future champs. Zayat wants him , but Micallef wants to seal the deal at the Spa. Tough call….. Micallef asked for $5,000 for the ride, and was granted the deal. Now he backs out, and the stewards aren’t happy. On Wednesday they said no, then on Thursday they had no decision… The old switcheroo.

If Garcia does not ride the Penn Derby, agent Micallef could be fined by the stewards in Philly and in New York. Kinda makes you think he is in a bad spot. Well, to tell the truth, the only one with the dunce hat is the agent Tony Micallef. He could be fined and moreover lose credibility with other owners about not keeping his word. Funny thing in this game. You are only as good as your word, and only as good as you finished in the standings last meet. I sure hope Alan Garcia wins the Saratoga meet, or he may want to start looking for a new agent.

All That and Fries


August 29th, 2008 by Horstradamus

Racing needs a hero. Plain and simple. Will it happen in the 10th race at Saratoga on Saturday? Oh, I forgot…. Curlin is running in this race.

The G-1 Woodward has always been a testing ground for past champs, and will this give us the glimpse we are looking for in October? I think so, so just tune in and watch..

There are eight going postward, and Curlin looks like the dominate mover on paper. But that is the reason they run the race. In this race there is some real pace that can set up this runner. They go by names of: Divine Park, who is stretching out and has Alan Garcia (who rode 5 winners last week). Past the Point, with Edgar Prado, looks to be on the hook and is another player. Loose Leaf should help the causes by making his second start off a layoff. He is 2/3 at Saratoga with wins.

Enter Curlin stage left… This runner looks to benefit from the early pace and is a stone cold closer. He exits off of the turf in The Man O’ War Stakes, and in my opinion, I would keep to the dirt. What do you think? He is 13/13 in the $$$ and should inhale this field. The turf tightener combined with the time off should add up to a stand up and shout effort.

This day should yield plenty of answers for the Breeders’ Cup. The entire weekend is worth taking a look, and be sure to dial up WinningPonies.com before making your wagers. This could be a weekend that answers questions as well as fills your pockets. Look for some pleasing payoffs and opportunities to make a bankroll for races to come. Labor Day is known as America’s day at the races. Saturday could be known as the day you witnessed greatness.

The Future Is Now


August 27th, 2008 by Horstradamus

I recently sat through a racing commission meeting. There were a few things missing: a monkey and a football; the three stooges; or maybe cartoon superheros.

It was a sad scene; the topics seemed mundane. The elected officials looked as if they could not wait until they could bang the gavel and go home. Or, to the nearest pub to loosen that tie and talk about the old salt mine…. What a joke.

Nobody stood up and said enough is enough. Please stop the madness, and let’s fix the problems. This would be a grand idea, but nobody really cares. How about taking a journey to a magical place with me? One where elected officials tear down red tape instead of putting up more.  Clearing problems instead of allowing most to go onward. Strap yourself in, and prepare to take a ride on the “what if” magic carpet.

  • What if we marketed racing as ONE entity? Lets create a new racing commission that controls the country instead of state by state. This would give us uniform rules. Good, or bad. We would all play the same rules. Lets start with free admission, free parking, free valet, free live racing programs. Sound good? Just stay tuned….
  • What if we really cared and every track or betting site had a tutorial element that would allow our savvy young players to educate themselves at their pace?  Hell, they love the computer, video games and reading online. How about allowing them to wager “play” money to become more acquainted with racing. They could trade in the play money for prizes at local tracks. Only when they are ready. Then we could offer a customer friendly area or windows that cater to questions and concerns, rather than send them home like a number.
  • What if ALL tracks gave back a cash rebate? Just like supermarkets, gas stations, etc? Allow them to reward the most important element of racing. The customer. The loyalty card that could be used to track and reward players would work at all tracks, and could be used on any betting site. Think this is far fetched?  You are wrong.  It is out there, and we choose to alienate new players.
  • What if loyal customers were given opportunities to travel to other tracks around the nation?  It all comes from the same marketing fund, and we could keep racing alive by having drawings, special rewards, etc…
  • What if players were treated as the star as the horses are?  Keep local, national, online, and practice rankings. Have fun, promote the people. They will love seeing their name in lights.
  • How about allowing players to get up close and personal?  Setting up backside visits, watching workouts, seeing a new foal online at Whatever Farm……..
  • Create new wagers. Wagers that appeal to the novice all the way up to big whales?  It can be done… The tracks get a percentage of wagers, and the rest goes back as a payoff. Lets have some fun. Most think tracks want you to lose.  They love it when you win. Win every day and every race. They still get their percentage, and everyone wins.

I know, this is a dream. Or is it? Just because we didn’t do it 50 years ago, is it wrong? At a time when we needed unity, we have created more barriers. Those elected officials are waiting. It is time to head out to Mulligan Lou’s to have a cold one. I once heard, “If we do not hang together, we will all hang separately.”  The nooses are being tied, and gallows await.  It all starts by doing nothing, and staying the course.

True Pioneers


August 25th, 2008 by Horstradamus

Many sports have had barriers that have broken down over the decades. It only makes sense, but some things just seemed to take a little more time.

For decades, African American riders and trainers dominated racing. They won major stakes, and laid the groundwork for what would become a national pastime. This past Saturday marked the 100-year anniversary of the last major stake won by a black jockey. An entire century has passed, and the mention of the early pioneers of racing has become a footnote.

Jimmy Lee was the last black rider to win the Travers. It was 1908. What a long time to forget about the founding athletes who made our game great. Black rider accomplishments spanned decades, and nations around the globe. They even dominated the sport throughout slavery and after the Civil War.

The first Kentucky Derby was booted home by Oliver Lewis in 1875. He was one of 13 black riders in the race (out of a total of 15 riders). Of the first 28 Derbies, 15 were won by black jockeys. Only three black riders are in the Racing Hall of Fame. Issac Murphy, the son of a slave, was one of the best riders ever. His winning percentage was 44% and he won three Kentucky Derbies.

The times have changed, and as with all sports, there became barriers. There could not be a separate league, and in 1975 there were only 10 black jockeys competing. Today, black riders can be seen at varied tracks, but the overall number is very small. African Americans can be seen competing in every sport around the globe. But for the sport of kings, they have become a rare member of the game. Racing has become an event, one that is filled with excitement. But once upon a time, there were true pioneers who made this game a sport which is enjoyed around the world.

A Million Reasons


August 22nd, 2008 by Horstradamus

Reach in the jeans and pull out the greens. Oh, and be sure to hit WinningPonies.com and nail the Travers $1 million guaranteed Pick-4.

The pool will be huge, and don’t be afraid to venture out of your comfort zone and throw some prices at the board. I love days like this where you have a swelled P-4 pool to swing. When it hits levels like this, a normal P-4 that would pay around $100 will pay in the $200 range. The players wait for days like this.

You must be prepared, be ready to reach down for your information, and pull the trigger. The action is worth the investment, and having the proper guidance can translate from a losing day where you talk to yourself on the way to the car, or knocking out the champ. You decide…..

There are many runners worth following per WinningPonies, and here are a few that merit a special look:

10th race @ Saratoga- Take a good gander at J Be K. This colt seems to love 7 furlongs, and broke his maiden at The Spa.  Go-Go in the irons is a plus, and Assmussen is winning at 24%. Looks like a solid player.

11th race @ Saratoga-  If Pyro does not run well, the bridge will be full of believers. He came rolling last out, and went a little wide. He is 2/2 in the money at The Spa, and is a legitimate contender for the money today.

So, what are you waitin’ for? You have a great day to play, the pools are sweet, and your guidance awaits.  You decide how much you want to win. The proof will be in the selections. Be sure not to leave home without them.

Double Your Pleasure


August 18th, 2008 by Horstradamus

A forgotten wager that has fallen by the wayside is the Daily Double. This wager makes the player choose the winner of two races in advance of the first wager. Sound like fun? It still is…..

To play doubles, you need to do your handicapping ahead. This makes your selection process easier, and WinningPonies.com can be an excellent way to carve out this wager. Playing a “parlay”, where you play the winner of one race and bet it all back in the next, does not make financial sense.

You will have two “takeouts” which are the % the track takes out for expenses. This only happens if you play a parlay. But, if you play a double, you will only have ONE takeout…. I know, it doesn’t sound like much. The average takeout for exotic wagers is 20%. If play a parlay, you face 40% taken out of your wagering dollar. A double allows you to face ONE takeout.

Double your pleasure, and double your advantage. With any gaming, you want to find any edge that allows you to take away the house advantage, or in racing, you don’t have to face another dreaded takeout. I would suggest doing your work in advance, and placing your faith in a service that has shown a proven track record. Go ahead, jump on in and double up. This can be a fun wager, and has been around longer than any other type of exotic wager in the game.

Count to Three


August 13th, 2008 by Horstradamus

The Pick-3 is one of the best wagers at the track. Period. Here are just a few reasons why, and then we’ll look at some ways to knock this wager off the tee.

Despite being compared to a parlay wager, the Pick-3 has only one takeout versus three when you roll your money over in a parlay. Oh, just feel that 17 -20% being taken out of your pocket each time you wager. Hurts a bit doesn’t it?

The P-3 can provide some sweet payoffs if you are willing to venture. Here are a couple of scenarios that will, more often than not, lead to disaster:

1. Betting 2 favorites with longshots in one leg. - Bad %

2. An odds on favorite tied up with low priced runners. - Big mistake

3. The chalk wins all three races. - No value for taking a three win effort.

Here are few that could be used to find a better payday:

1. Don’t play any of the morning line favorites in any leg. - Much bigger payday. Favorites win 33% of the time, and lose 67%. You do the math…

2. Play one non-favorite and two medium prices. - Here is when you get surprised. Beat the chalk, and get paid.

3. Don’t be afraid to spread out and put some cash in multiple tickets. Look for your price runner, and build your castle. Remember, you are betting against the public and the morning line is a prediction of the post time win odds. Go ahead, get in the game.

You can watch things happen, wonder what happened, or make things happen. Which will it be?

A New Day


August 11th, 2008 by Horstradamus

All players start out being a little hesitant about jumping into the game of racing. If you can count to 21, you think you can play blackjack; if you have a handful of coins, you are headed to the slots; and the number of games that call your name at casinos and online seem to have your number.

The days of open comps are gone when you make your trips to casinos. They have been replaced by robots in suits that echo the same lines over and over and never seem to have an answer. You are not a player, patron, or guest. You are a number. Sound warm and fuzzy?  Let’s try another game where as Norm would say, “where everyone knows your name.”

This is not your grandpas game. No smoke filled rooms where guys are talking in code. The game of racing is appealing to all demographics, and the growing segment is women. The men still hold sway, but I like to see everyone cheering and jumping up and down as their pony rolls for home. Have you ever seen anyone have that electric look at the roulette table?

The game is changing. We love to bet from home, OTB’s, and make occasional trips to the tracks. The trip is worth the time. To spend a day at the track was a magical time. Now, you can wear sweats and play on your computer. We need to find that way to market to younger players. Let’s create from the bottom up with a brand new level of player. Get people involved.

We need more tutorials on track websites. The new crowd is more savvy, and loves the info. Take a look at poker on TV. Need I say more? Have beginner seminars. Break down the barriers, and take the game to the people. We need games to play for fun on the computer for prizes. This will instill confidence, and the better you get playing at home, the more comfortable you will feel playing at the track. It is all about feeling good. The sun on your face, the ponies taking the track, and cashing your first winning ticket. That day will not be forgotten soon.

Taking It On The Chin


August 11th, 2008 by Horstradamus

Punter (or bettors as known here at home) have nailed bookmaker Ladbrokes. I guess you can call it one for the good guys. You seldom get to hear the player getting the best of the house, but in jolly ole’ England this has not been the case.

Ladbrokes is reporting that profits have fallen 16% during the last four months for those who have been backing trainer Aidan O’Brien. The Irish trainer won with four of his heavily backed runners, and has 17 Group 1 winners in the big races in Britain, Ireland, and France.

To make this even worse, online betting and e-gaming revenues are up 18%, and as the dollar, the Euro has been poor in 2008. It seems no matter where racing is held that troubles seem to be abound…except for the players. If you are able to bet online and get a piece of the action during the remainder of the flat racing season, you may want to find yourself turning a Pick 3 or Pick 4 into one less by finding that golden single entry to play. This is sweet music.

Finally, the worm has turned and Ballydoyle is on fire. This may be an angle that may translate into a nice wager here in the U.S.A.  Anytime you find a gap, take it… Back in the day, bookmakers in the U.S took beatings on: Bill Shoemaker, Laffit Pincay, Pat Day, Steve Cauthen, Russell Baze and a host of others.

Sweet Home Chicago


August 8th, 2008 by Horstradamus

The card at Arlington will be filled with value. You will need WinningPonies.com more than ever. After taking a look at the card (and expecting the track to be a little soft for turf runners), here are a few plays that have caught my eye, and may require that extra look before going to the windows.

Race #7 - #3 St. Joe

This Darin Miller trainee looks to have been coming this direction for quite awhile. Loves the poly, and Miller does well with coming off a rest break. Be sure to look this one over, and use WinningPonies.com to find your value with exactas and trifectas. This may be a a great race to extend your multirace wagers for a sweet payday.

Race #8 - Plan

Aidan O’Brien has sent the bookmakers across the ponds to the walls. This runner making a third start off a layoff is well worth the coin. He put gas in his tank at the Curragh in Ireland, and should be able to translate that into a beautiful effort today. Add in lasix and Johnny Murtagh in the irons, and this guy looks to be the key to a banner day. Once again, this is only one player in the race and WinningPonies.com can identify where you need to go to maximize value. The sharpies will be watching, so why not you?

Overall, don’t be afraid to wager with both hands on this day. The pools are swelled, and all connections coming over the pond are not here for the ribs. This can be a day where a few runners can make a difference in a winning day, and a winning meet.

Horse Racing Handicapping
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