You have heard me talk in the past about making winning runs by using the chalk, instead of throwing out the obvious. Well, here comes another and it is going to be huge….

I am taking a vacation to “chalkland.” I am not ashamed. I am not embarrassed. I am going to make seven plays between here and Breeders’ Cup to bankroll my weekend. Here is my seven-step program.

Day one. I am going to start with $100. I will look over New York, Kentucky, California, and Florida for one play of the day… No more, no less… All I need is 1-2 on my money.. I will bet it to place or show… But, it is coming……

I find my first wager, and lock it in. We find five to six each day and skip it due to price. I bet my $100 and get back $150. My second wager yields me the same 1-2 and my wad is up to $225. Bet three takes me to $337.50. I cannot believe it is growing… Number four gets me – $506.25, and bet number five takes me up to $759.38. I am starting to sweat, but my capping is getting more focused. Number six wager rolls me into – $1,139.06. I finish up my Breeders’ cup bankroll with my seventh wager. I find 1-2 on my money and I get back $1,708.59.

This is hard to grasp… Can you believe that betting $100 on a 1-2 payoff can yield this amount? This will get my bankroll up to a nice number. I only invested a hundred clams, and I have $1,700 to wager. Normally, I could not see $1,700 in pocket unless I am out of town, or it is Breeders’ Cup… But to start with such a small amount compared to what I will have is incredible.

Stay away from small circuits. Stay away from off tracks. Keep away from large fields. Don’t use a new bug rider. Use trainers who bat better than 20%. Don’t use maiden races. Stay away from cheap claimers… This should get you where you need to be. You have to be careful, and there must be some ground rules. These are mine.

Think about it, and let me know your thoughts. Good or bad, just let me know what you think. Seven times in the batters box, and you could be having a helluva Breeders’ Cup weekend…

I can still see Goldikova rolling down the lane. Freddie Head’s filly ran bigger than life…. I know, time cures all. If you did not cash, then your memory can grow short. All of which can be a good thing.

The historical bias says that closers, stalkers, and “Silky Sullivan” types do well in here. The majority of runners in this 8 furlong affair tend to favor this method. In the past, so have I at the windows…

Less than 20% have went gate to wire in this affair. You will want to start your process by searching for a pace that will set up what type of closer. A blistering job on the hook can assure they will come rolling like the cavalry. A medium to average pace may favor a tactical runner who can weave their magic 4-5 lengths off the pace.

Post position means a lot in the history of this race. You will want to go back through charts, and see what post has taken the beating. The outside has been a bad place to be. I would look for a middle post where a runner can dive in or out if needed. I don’t like the rail where the competition is all great. You can get shut off quicker than an unpaid electric bill.  Just go back through the charts. It will pay off.

Big preps on the radar screen for this heat have been the – Q.E. II Stakes, Prix Jacque le Marois, Prix du Moulin, and the Sussex Stables. Goldikova won her last prep in the Prix du Moulin.

Here are some contenders that may need a look if they make the trip: Artiste Royale, Awesome Gem, Bold Chieftain, Colonel John, Cosmonaut, Courageous Cat, Cowboy Cal, Ferneley, Get Serious, Ghanaati, and Gio Ponti.

Just keep your eyes open, and be ready to employ the rules. The handicapping will be easy to find.. It is under WinningPonies, and believe you me they will be ready….

This race has always been good to me…. I sure hope I have not angered the wagering gods with that last statement, as they have no sense of humor when man thinks he does well on a race or surface…Hence, poly-track was created….. And it took more than seven days.

We are returning to Santa Anita. I loved my first trip last year, and the weather was great. I could not have asked for anything more, other than to conquer day two as I did on day one.

Beware of the weather. Do not play Euros that only love soft or yielding courses. Sometimes the turf can be sun baked. If the clouds open up, it can and will offer up a giving course. The funny thing is that European runners love this sod. Be sure to make sure they have run well on whatever type 0f surface is going on.  16 out of the last 25 have handled the sod of the day. Make sure to give bonus points for those who won their last time out..

Take a chance on a longshot. Turf runners can hold their ability for a long run. You should look for a runner that has run and won in the past 30 days. 12 out of 25 winners have followed this method.

Early speed fades… It will go the way of the dinosaur.. Far off pace runners who wheedle through the pack fare very well down the lane. I would not look for a gate to wire effort, and better focus on closers. Only 6 out of 25 speedsters have rolled….

Now is the time to brush up on breeding. For the babies it is really important. The grass runners always go back to this. You can throw out grass breeding for an 8-year-old weed runner. I think they have proven their point. It makes all the payoffs in the world to pay attention to the juvenile breeding.

I am starting to break down as much as I can. This allows for me to do final capping at the end, and run them against the tier levels for price plays.

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies should be an interesting race to handicap. Here are some thoughts to process before you begin to sort through the mounds of information.

Back in 1984, Fran’s Valentine, at 74-1, was taken down for an incident in the race. The eventual winner was Outstandingly, who paid a sweet $47.60. The show began with a heartbreaker for some, and a big time break for others.

Food for thought – the biggest come from behind victory came in 1988 for Open Mind, who closed like the wind after being 17 lengths behind the leader. The smallest payoff was in 1990 with Meadow’s Star $2.40 to win.

Europeans are a no-factor in this race historically. In the past 25 years, only 14 runners traveled with European preps. No European runner has overcome camera shyness and went to the winner’s circle.

The pace overall has favored those with a late kick. Speed is generally fashionable, but the gold goes to the stalkers and closers from the back 0f the pack. If memory serves you well from last year, Stardom Bound came flying the last quarter of a mile and circled the field like they were tied to the ground. She won by 1 1/2 lengths, and it was an impressive effort. She came off the pace, and the front runners couldn’t hold her off.

Well, there is a peek into the race. I would advise keeping abreast of all news and latest works to see who favors the course, and how the overall field is shaping up. Keep tuned in here, and as we draw closer, you will know all of the latest. I have access to all press releases and barn notes. So you’ll hear it here first, or at least quickly, to help you prepare for your day.

You finally made it to the B/C, and you have to make a choice to ride your pony in the million dollar bonanza. What to do, what to do… There are so many to go with, and here are some thoughts from the Breeders’ Cup site.

Here are some insights into riders others chose:

Kent Desormeaux – 4 votes

Johnny Murtagh – 1 vote (WTF) ????

Mike Smith – 1 vote (I found this a little low)

Garret Gomez – 2 votes (This should go up every year)

Johnny Velasquez – (A BIG surprise)

Rafael Bejarano – (He will be the future)

Frankie Dettori – (he only wants to ride the biggies, and he has magic on the big days)

O.K, how about – Alex Solis, Robby Albarado, Calvin Borel, Corey Nakatani, Alan Garcia, Julien Leparoux, Todd Kabel, Edgar Prado, Patrick Husbands, Rajiv Maragh??? There are so many to choose from, that there is no boot up on the other. I do like Desormeaux and Gomez more than the others. Kent D is a money rider, and seldom makes mistakes. Go-Go is rock solid. When he ships into another track, he brutalizes the day and takes home all of the money.

The thing to remember is that everyone is trying, even the trainers who are 30-1.. They all want to etch their name in history and cash in a big payday. Also, factor in the breeding angle, and there will be money to be made for years to come. So, don’t discount a big rider on a small circuit. Remember Stewie Elliot? How about the Cajun-man, Borail??

Don’t discount, and look for the value… Everybody is on their “A” game… For the record, I would like to project a few riders in the next three years who will be back in the limelight winning all of the money….

1. Rafael Bejarano – This kid is the future… PERIOD.

2. GO-GO has about another 5-8 years left in his mojo bag.

3. Leandro Goncalves – He looks good, and it will take time. He will be arriving at the right time.

4. Julien Leparoux – His abilities are endless. He is young, and is a smart rider in the saddle… He will go down with the big boys someday…

After watching the Goodwood at Santa Anita, I felt even stronger about Mine That Bird than ever before. Only time will tell and the clock is ticking….

November 7, 2009 – the day will come… It is a G-1 event and they will travel 1 1/4 to test the contestants…Back to the Goodwood… Calvin Borel kept this guy way back in the pack… He made a move about the final 300 yards and came off the rail in fine order. He made up three lengths very quickly. It had the look of a trip over the track. A race is better than a handful of works. On this day, he received his test. Chip Woolley should be very happy with the quick acceleration and the way that his runner took to the track. Mine That Bird will have two or three breezes before the race. I think Woolley has him tight, and there is no reason to dull his blade.

Other runners that warrant a quick look are: Summer Bird, who has gotten better with every outing. Tim Ice should feel better with effort. He has his first work at Santa Anita, and seems to enjoy the Pro-Ride surface.  Ice feels he is peaking, and his horse has a good about him..

Also add in: Rail Trip, Macho Again, and Awesome Gem. These are ones to start the focus process, and be sure to begin your Euro watch. The Europeans have done well in Southern California. I find that crazy, and could not believe it in years gone by. I felt they would have conquered New York, or Churchill. But, they seem to love the sun in Cali…. So, don’t leave them out of your exotics..

Well, there is a start. I would start reading everything you can to get a handle on runners making the final plans. Now is the time, and the day cometh. So be ready.

Today there was a great story in The Saratogian. It was getting me all hyped about the B/C Juvenile, and then I read the comment after the story. Mom was right… If you don’t have anything good to say, then don’t say anything at all….

The article was well written. It spoke of Richard Dutrow and how he was shaping up for the Breeders’ Cup.  I am a fan of D’Funnybone, winning the Belmont Futurity, and how Homeboykris took down the Hopeful Stakes.

When it comes to this point of the year, the thoughts cannot begin to be put into words. Ever since the inception of the Breeders’ Cup, trainers now have another big day to shoot for. It covers all surface angles, and has something for the babies on the rise, to the tried and true hard-balls.

Back to the comment section. Just leave it alone. There is no need to qualify a trainer. No need to put in there: “he is often suspended, or he still continues to bat 50% ITM.” Let well enough alone. When a solid article is written, there is no need to change the pace and fire out something to tear down another.

The game is tough enough. That is why we have a regulatory body watching the game. We don’t need to pile on. If Dutrow is going to stand in the corner for an infraction, maybe we should let the powers that be, be the judge of that. It does no possible good for the integrity of the game to preface a career with his or her accusations.

These are strong words for me. Especially about the sport that I love…. To allow runners to win one race, and PRESTO they make the big dance. It just doesn’t sit well with me as a fan….

I have seen some of the day’s events, and I have to say that it breaks my heart that some of these runners will make it to the Breeders’ Cup.

Call me a racing purist, or just call me something ugly… I hate it..It takes away from the original way of doing things. Keep it based on money earned, and I think it will equal out. We will see the best horses run in the biggest races.

I will not take a stance and say that a runner was stiffed. Not because I am afraid, but because none of us know all of the details.

Today when you saw the G-1 Goodwood Stakes, Mine That Bird was off the pace by his usual dozen or so lengths. He was sent out to get a feel for the track, and see how he would acclimate to California. He has 4 wins from 6 starts on poly, and that is not bad.

He was last, and as always, for most of the race Calvin Borel kept him on the rail. At the top of the lane, Borel brought him out in the middle to far outside and did not give a vigorous hand ride. He asked a few times with the “encourager” down the lane. It was about the final 1/8th when he did accelerate like his mane was on fire. Borel did not get him involved, and kept him out of traffic. Fine and dandy, he was given a race and looks good for the future. Kudos to Bennie Woolley… The winner, Gitano Hernado, has NO business going to the B/C…  Fallon is an excellent rider, and he got lucky today holding off Colonel John.

I guess if I take a deep breath, the real runners will be there. But I still have a bad taste in my mouth by allowing one win to take you to the promised land. Racing should be progressive, and change should be embraced. But some old rules should always apply. They play nine regulation innings, four quarters in football, and there are five on five in basketball. Some things should never change… It lessens the field, and could exclude some that are legit…..

Everyone remembers the Preakness. The way we saw the filly dismantle the boys at her will.. The way she dug in and held her ground. Well, you may not get to see her on the biggest stage of racing.

I know, it is our loss. Racing’s loss.. History’s loss… Hell, I don’t know of any winners. When you keep Rachel Alexandra out of the Breeders’ Cup, you are holding back one of the bright stars of the game.

If you make the move and decide not to run her on the “plastic” as Jess Jackson puts it, you will draw many people to scratch their heads about this move.

She will reappear at Belmont this Saturday in the Mother Goose. That is the good news. Jackson, who in all accounts is a man of the game, wants to run her against the males possibly in the Haskell and the Travers later this summer. But this weekend will be dedicated to raising awareness for Susan G. Komen for breast cancer, by giving away 10,000 bracelets.

As a fan, I would love to see her hook up on B/C Day and do battle. She is truly a sight to behold, and we are keeping her from the public. The Jacksons regret running Curlin on the synthetic. But, maybe she will take differently to the surface.  After all, she is 1 for 1 on synthetic surfaces (she won a race at Keeneland last year).  Just give it a chance. Try her out for a few works, and we will be satisfied.

I would love to see Rachel and Zenyatta put on the gloves and do battle.  This would be a race to be remembered. I sure hope they hook up, and do battle. If not on B/C Day, then on a national stage. Racing needs our grand gals, and to keep them apart will only keep us guessing.

I sure hope he reconsiders. Santa Anita is a fine oval. Plenty of runners have made the transition. Just think it over, and don’t wait too long.. The race will be here before you know it.

The Breeders’ Cup and the Oak Tree Racing Association are in negotiations about the size of Oak Tree’s financial responsibility for the shortfall at this year’s Breeders’ Cup.

The amount that Oak Tree could owe the Breeders’ Cup may be in the millions of dollars, according to sources that asked not to be named.

Sherwood Chillingworth, executive vice president of Oak Tree, would not comment on the specifics of the negotiations.

“We are still working on the numbers with the Breeders’ Cup,” Chillingworth said on December 16, “so it is too early to comment with any certainty.”

Oak Tree is a not-for-profit, non-dividend-paying group of California horse owners and breeders who have been operating a fall meet at Santa Anita, under a lease arrangement, since 1969. The 2008 Breeders’ Cup, run over two days in October, was the fourth time Oak Tree has staged the multi-million-dollar event since its inception in 1984.

Jack Robbins, president of Oak Tree, said that the association showed a profit of about $500,000 from the 2003 Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita. Oak Tree’s profits are spent on racing-related organizations, projects and charities.

A source said that Oak Tree’s guarantee to the Breeders’ Cup for 2008 was about $5 million. Apparently revenues for the two days fell far short of that, perhaps by as much as $3 million. The Breeders’ Cup’s projected revenues for 2009 will be down about $10 million compared to 2008, said Greg Avioli, president of the Breeders’ Cup . Included in the estimated downturn is a $3 million drop in revenues for the 2009 Breeders’ Cup, which also will be held at Santa Anita under the aegis of Oak Tree. The 2008 Breeders’ Cup was the first to be run over a synthetic surface instead of dirt, and 2008-09 will mark the first time that the Breeders’ Cup has been run at the same track in consecutive years.

Like Chillingworth, Robbins declined to comment in detail about the losses incurred at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup. Avioli referred questions about the shortfall to Peter Land, his marketing chief.

“Our contractual relationship with Oak Tree is confidential, so we won’t be commenting,” Land said.

Recently, citing financial considerations, the Breeders’ Cup announced that it was discontinuing the supplementary stakes program, which called for the Breeders’ Cup to pump about $5 million a year in purse money into 100 races at 40 racetracks. A few days later, the Breeders’ Cup, under pressure from breeders, recanted and said that the 2009 supplementary program would still be in place.

The 2008 Breeders’ Cup, only the second to be run over two days, offered a record 14 races worth $25.5 million. Attendance at Santa Anita totaled 82,588, and overall betting surpassed $130 million. Only one other Breeders’ Cup has gone over $130 million in betting, at Churchill Downs in 2006, but that was an eight-race, one-day event, which presumably cost less to stage. Purses at Churchill were approximately $6 million less than what they were this year. Typically, most of the handle that isn’t returned to bettors is shared by the host track, the state, horsemen and off-track betting sites and hubs. In California, tracks receive about half as much from off-track bets as they do from bets placed on-track.

The Breeders’ Cup has conceded that ticket pricing and policies for the 2008 event were a mistake. At one point, the Breeders’ Cup turned over its allotment of tickets to Oak Tree because they were not able to sell them. The cheapest reserved seat in the grandstand sold for $200, which was for both days. It cost $600 to sit in four sections of the grandstand. It is commonplace for racing executives to say that their prices for top races — the Kentucky Derby, the Breeders’ Cup — are comparable to championship events in other sports, but their thinking is misguided, because in racing, unlike team sports, many fans incur betting losses after they pay to get in.

“. . . When we finalized our ticket plans and pricing in March, the economy was much stronger,” Land wrote in The Blood-Horse magazine after the Breeders’ Cup. “That being said, in retrospect, I wish we had provided more lower-priced options for fans and for horsemen, and we also should have allowed more people to choose to come on one day rather than requiring the two-day purchase.”

It is likely that the ticketing strategy will be different at Santa Anita in 2009. Early on for the 2008 Breeders’ Cup, Chillingworth battled with Breeders’ Cup officials over pricing, including the general-admission cost that entitled fans to walk-around privileges at the track. Now both the Breeders’ Cup and Oak Tree have millions of reasons to do better by the fans.