I am getting in full-swing with looking over works, and listening to all of the connections as we head toward the first Saturday in May. Every year I have to dig up my list of handicapping nuggets that hopefully will allow me to gain any edge under the sun. This week will be important for all that are going to place a wager. It never fails that we will hear of a big name runner who defects, and  a wiseguy runner who is blowing red-hot works in the morning. Here are some of my personal notes for finding your group of runners to whittle down.

Derby 101

• Make sure there is a 1 1/8th race under your runners’ belt this year. I have always felt that it is important to test the waters, and find out what you have in your barn. Take a peak at runners who did not meet this note, and toss them out now. Thank yourself later, as that last quarter of a mile is awfully tough.
• I have never been a big fan of horses who are trying new equipment this late in the game. I am not second guessing any of the professionals, but if they are still trying to find that “magic potion” to the winner’s circle, go ahead and toss them now. Every trainer worth their weight knows what they have.
• A Kentucky Derby horse must have had a 1-2-3 finish in their last effort in a graded event. I feel it shows readiness, and gives a glimpse of what to expect. I am sure that the world is aware that Union Rags had a tough trip; Gemologist has done nothing wrong to date, and Mario Gutierrez is a long way from Hastings Park. But just make sure they have faced quality competition, and have not peaked too soon.
• Watch for when runners ship to Churchill, and carefully look over the final works. Was it a blowout, or just a two-minute clip? Do some homework on trainers, and their patterns of how they ready runners. Stay away from the really late arrivals, as sometimes they can be a head case. I like to see my list horses get there early this week, or stay close at Keeneland to train. It is a must to get a work over the track, and get in the Derby groove.
• You can root for the late blooming runners who did not race at two-years-of-age, but please keep your money in pocket. It was 1882 with Apollo who last pulled off this task. I don’t discount them down the road, but this race is something that is targeted for quite a long time. Bodemeister has me wondering if this can be the first in a long time. How many runners have been named after Bob Baffert’s son?  I’ll be happy if he pulls this off, but I won’t be cashing a win ticket on this late bloomer.

I guess we all have a little bag of tricks that we employ every year. I would not get too caught up in what prep is the latest springboard to the Derby. There is mucho money at some smaller tracks, and some races are so purse heavy that they have to send a money truck to carry home the winnings. Don’t get overheated with small field blowouts that may have taken place in New York. The inner-track plays heavily toward speed and close stalkers, and this may be an illusion. Don’t start thinking that one runner will dominate the pace and trounce the field. I guess my only exception would be if the track comes up sloppy, and speed rules the day. There is plenty of pace this year, right behind them are a bevy of stalkers. Look for the bigger name riders who have been there before. They are less likely to make the little mistakes that can cost you three lengths, or get you trapped on the rail. This is a day where a $5 bettor becomes a $10 player. Not to go against the old saying of “the pigs fatter, and the hogs get slaughtered,” but this is a day where you could easily get 5-1 on runner who should be 2-1. The field is shaping up to offer value, and as usual I will be searching for a price to go with my runner for super value.

Watch the races before the big day to get a feel. Check your weather report on the WinningPonies site, and as always get your E-Z Win™ forms as early as you can. They have pulled out some runners that light up the board on the big day!  My last nugget to pass along is to not overthink the race. I have had friends who jump off of runners for the feel good story of the trainer with one horse, the pretty grey, and the gelding trying his luck. Do your homework, and pay attention to the last minute details. The media does an incredible job of keeping us informed, and the notes team is second to none. As my good friend John Engelhardt has said to me many times, “just stick to your knitting” and you’ll be fine…

This will be the “last call” for graded stakes for the most part. It is now that you should be paying attention to late works, when they are shipping to Churchill Downs, and most importantly getting your E-Z Win Forms in hand. It is a hard task to keep up on all of the action, so let the professionals help you with your homework. This makes the game more profitable, and allows you to better focus your time on money management, and wagers that bring down the house.

Santa Anita

Race #5 – The G-3 San Simeon Handicap – 6 1/2 on the turf – 5:34 p.m. EST

#7 Irish Art (5-2) – Joel Rosario in the irons for Carla Gaines. They are rolling at a 24% win clip this year, and they look to do better with this son of Artie Shiller. Enjoyed the turn back last out, and scored impressively. Owns two very nice works, and the barn wins 22% with runners who just got their picture taken last out. A (horse for the course) HFC angle applies as they are 5/5 ITM at Santa Anita, and 2/2 with wins at the distance.

Race #9 – The G-2 Santa Barbara Stakes – 1 1/4 on the turf – 7:40 p.m. EST

#5 Vamo a Galupiar (5-2) – Mike Smith is the pilot for Neil Drysdale. They are 2/3 ITM at Santa Anita, and made an impressive 5-wide move last out to win by a half a length. She looks to be able to get the distance, and Drysdale wins 29% off a fresh victory. Mr. 5,000 wins and counting always helps your chances, and he is one of the best money riders in the country.

Keeneland

Race #8 – $100,000 Giant’s Causeway – 5 1/2f on the turf – 4:42 p.m. EST

Rain is in the Kentucky forecast, and I am looking for a track with some “give” to it.

#5 Classy Zip (5-1) – J.J. Castellano aboard for Tony Dutrow, and these guys are winning at 36% on the year. A Gulfstream Park shipper, and this has been a good angle all meet as they make their first start back. Go back three races, and you will see she faced the boys at Kee last year. It has been 4 weeks since her last, and the exclamation work at Palm Meadows in 47 flat on the green gives me confidence to go to the windows.

Race #9 – The G-3 Coolmore Lexington Stakes – 1 1/16 – 5:13 p.m. EST

#2 Summer Front (9-2) – Ramon Dominguez and Christophe Clemente hook up in this heat. Exits an impressive win in the Dania Beach, and this son of War Front has done nothing wrong being 3/3 with wins. He was put on the shelf in good order, and is training lights out in the morning for the barn. The last two works were bullets, and if he gets anywhere near 9-2, bet early and often!

Be sure to check the latest weather report and scratches from the WinningPonies site, and get your E-Z Win Forms in now. It is always a good thing to have a plan before making wagers, and WinningPonies can help you find the prices that will complete your multi-tiered wagers. As always, may your winner’s be many, and your photos be few !

Castaway in the Southwest First Division

With Bodemeister‘s spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate secured, trainer Bob Baffert is looking to add Castaway to his Derby roster, should he put up a big race this Saturday at Keeneland.  Castaway hopes to follow in his sire Street Sense’s hoofsteps, but his road to the Kentucky Derby has been a bumpy one after the lackluster seventh place finish in the Sunland Derby his last time out.

A couple of the Coolmore Lexington Stakes contenders are hoping to scrape together enough graded stakes earnings to make it into the Kentucky Derby field of 20.  In addition to the 3-1 morning line favorite Castaway, Morgan’s Guerrilla will be aiming for the $200,000 purse, this time out with blinkers off.  On the board in three starts, Morgan’s Guerrilla fell short in the Illinois Derby just two weeks ago.

Summer Front went undefeated as a two-year-old but has not raced since December.  He has yet to race on a non-turf surface, let alone at the 1 1/16 mile distance of the Coolmore Lexington.  However, having regular rider Ramon Dominguez aboard might help ease the step up in class in his first graded stakes race.

Todd Pletcher sends out Holiday Promise, a son of Harlan’s Holiday, who looks to improve from a second place in the Spiral Stakes in mid-March.  His early speed should put him up near the front, stalking the pace.

News Pending, also by Harlan’s Holiday, has spent his last two Derby preps chasing Union Rags to no avail.  Trainer Dale Romans is hot off a successful weekend at Keeneland with Dullahan in the Blue Grass Stakes, and will need his colt to overcome the outside post and get a good clean trip.

The lightly-raced Johannesbourbon is listed at 8-1 with only one start under his belt.  He won his 6 ½ furlong maiden race by 9 ¾ lengths in March, yet the 1 1/16 distance may prove to be too much for this front runner.  While a win would still not give him enough graded earnings to warrant a Derby bid, this son of Johannesburg has potential as a newcomer on the three-year-old scene.

During the last three weeks, I have been getting Derby fever…  I know, I should know better by now.  But, it wasn’t for the big payoff, or getting seen at the big dance. Simply put, some events have me thinking about how special an honor it is to watch history. Many will be cheering that day, and no matter where you are there is not a bad seat in the house.

The current state of racing has me guessing. Tracks in Kentucky being bought and sold, dates cut, and trainers going to other tracks for more money. I grew up watching this glorious sport with my father. I learned how to first hold the Daily Racing Form before I was taught the magic that lay within. I have wagered on many things in my gambling life, but nothing could take the place of Thoroughbred racing. It is not like tossing dice in the air, or pulling slot handles. It is cerebral, and for me it has the feel of studying for the big test in school.

Hard to think that the state known for the Thoroughbred is lying against the ropes being pummeled by tracks with slot-infused gaming. I believe many are tired of talking about bailing anyone out. I can’t blame you, but there are so many jobs at stake. I have known families that have passed the art down from generation to generation. It is hard to believe when you hear a Kentucky lad like Dale Romans looking to run elsewhere. Hell, this guy is Kentucky… He comes from a racing family, and he has created a barn that could compete anywhere in the world. When I read the transcript of an interview with Mr. Romans, it began to be a reality. He is a businessman, and has owners to answer to. He has bills, employees, and a family that depends on the sport. Take away players like Dale Romans, and you will start seeing the ripple effect. Lack of horses, and fewer dates that can be filled. The purses will take a hit, and the roller-coaster ride is far from over. Where do you think he gets his feed?  Where will his employees find work when he pulls up his tent?  Are you starting to see any weight to this issue?  This is not a mirage where the tracks have gotten together to cry wolf. This is the new reality, and it is coming soon to a track you love to visit.

So, when you hear ” My Old Kentucky Home” being played by the Louisville marching band, go ahead and wipe away that tear from your eye. Think of the history and pageantry that has lasted for all of these years. Think of the great equine athletes that have graced the oval. Oh, and think about what it would be like if the Kentucky Derby were run at another track. Now that brings tears to my eyes, and the song isn’t even playing. If there was ever a time that I would like to be wrong, it is now. But, the call-to-the-post bugle is growing silent, and racing is in trouble. If I had one wish for racing it would be simple. But, there is no genie in the bottle, and the future is in our hands. Better hurry, it is almost post time….

Horses worth watching, a list of runners compiled by handicapper/turf writer Greg Melikov that should do well next time out. These thoroughbreds won six times, finished second once, and ran third five times since Feb. 21. They’re worth considering when developing your wagering strategy for online betting or at your favorite track.

AQUEDUCT

Aptphilly: Raced four lengths behind in third after a half-mile, rallied three wide in stretch to make up nearly 2 ½ lengths and finished second, beaten a neck at 1 1/16 miles on the turf April 6.

Recharged: Brushed with rival at break, raced eight lengths behind in eighth after a half-mile, rallied in stretch late to make up more than 2 ¾ lengths and finished third, beaten a head and three-quarters of a length at 1 1/16 miles on the turf March 28.

Reserved Quality: Broke sixth and last, raced six lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile and rallied in stretch to gain second by 3 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on Jan. 16.

Law Enforcement: Broke seventh and last, trailed by more than 4 ½ lengths after a half-mile, closed fast from fourth in stretch to make up three lengths and gained second by three-quarters of a length at six furlongs on the inner track Dec. 4. (Loped along more than four lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, angled out four wide for stretch run and rallied from fifth to win by 1 ¼ lengths at six furlongs on Feb. 21 at Gulfstream.)

CALDER

Madness n’ Mayhem: Raced 9 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, angled out for drive, rallied to make up more than 4 ½ lengths in stretch and finished second, beaten a neck at a mile on April 9.

GOLDEN GATE

Hard Spun Secrets: Raced third early, dropped to fourth more than three lengths behind after a half-mile, closed gamely inside to make up two lengths in stretch and finished second, beaten a neck at six furlongs on April 8.

Premium Quality: Broke fifth and last, moved to fourth more than 1 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, trapped behind leaders at three-sixteenths pole, raced in check until eighth pole, shifted out, made up nearly 1 ½ lengths and finished third, beaten two necks at six furlongs on March 25.

Denim and Diamonds: Broke slowly, raced 9 ½ lengths behind in third after a half-mile, gained command in stretch by three lengths and drew off to win by six lengths at a mile on March 25. (Chased pace five lengths behind in second after a half-mile, rallied in stretch to lead by three lengths and held on to win by a neck at a mile on April 15.)

GULFSTREAM PARK

M’Dearest: Raced 2 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, rallied four wide to challenge inside eighth pole and finished third beaten a head and a nose at 1 1/8 miles on the turf Jan. 22. (Raced five lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, swung out for drive and rallied in stretch to win by 1 ¾ lengths at 1 1/8 miles on Feb. 21.)

HAWTHORNE

Prairie Breeze: Held up between rivals early, raced more than 4 ½ lengths behind in eighth after a half-mile, shifted out five wide for drive, carried out late by winner in stretch and finished second, beaten a neck at a mile on the turf April 7.

Telma: Broke seventh and last, trailed by 11 ½ lengths after a half-mile, angled six wide in upper stretch, rallied to make up more than 4 ¾ lengths and gained second by 2 ¾ lengths at six furlongs on March 24.

Rare Action: Raced more than six lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, angled four wide for drive, rallied in stretch to make up more than 3 ¾ lengths and finished second, beaten three-quarters of a length at six furlongs on March 11. (Chased pace more than seven lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, rallied very wide to make up 3 ¼ lengths in stretch and finished third by 4 ½ lengths at six furlongs on April 1.)

KEENELAND

Center Divider: Raced two lengths behind in third after a half-mile, bottled up losing ground on far turn and rallied from sixth in stretch to gain third by a half-length at 1 1/8 miles on April 7.

PARX (PHILADELPHIA PARK)

Coffee Bar: Tracked pace two lengths behind in third after a half-mile, took lead in early stretch and drew off with speed to spare winning by four lengths at seven furlongs on April 9.

Island Bound: Raced more than 4 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, rallied wide from third to make up 3 ½ lengths in stretch and finished second, beaten a half-length at 6 ½ furlongs on March 27.

Empire Diva: Raced 10 lengths behind in sixth after three-eighths of a mile, rallied in stretch to make up eight lengths and gained second by three-quarters of a length at 5 ½ furlongs on March 12.

Rock Ptarmigan: Raced more than 11 ½ lengths behind 10th and last after a half-mile, closed fast to second, carried out in stretch by winner and was beaten by three-quarters of a length at a mile and 70 yards on a good surface Jan. 28; his jockey’s claim of foul not allowed. (Raced more than 3 ½ lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, rallied a bit in stretch and finished third by 3 ¼ lengths at a mile and 70 yards on April 2.)

Mi Preciosa: Raced seven lengths behind seventh and last after a half-mile, rallied in stretch and finished third beaten a nose for second at a mile and 70 yards on Feb. 4. (Pressed pace two heads behind in third after a half-mile, rallied outside in stretch to gain lead by a half-length, but was outgamed and finished second, beaten a neck at six furlongs on March 5.)

Chief Thundercloud: Tracked pace more than a length behind in sixth after a half-mile, checked in traffic on turn and rallied gamely in stretch to gain third by a neck, beaten a head for place at 6 ½ furlongs on Jan. 7.

PIMLICO

Danger Angel: Raced more than 10 lengths behind after a half-mile, angled out for stretch run, rallied to make up seven lengths and finished third beaten a length and a neck at six furlongs on April 7.

No Easy Answer: Raced more than seven lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, swung wide for the drive, closed fast from fourth in stretch to make up more than 5 ¼ lengths and finished second, beaten three-quarters of a length at six furlongs on March 30; ran final quarter in 24 4/5.

SANTA ANITA 

Confucius Junior: Broke outward, raced 4 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, came out entering stretch, rallied between rivals to make up 2 ½ lengths and finished second, beaten a head at a mile on the turf April 8.

Warren’s Lover: Raced seventh and last 3 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied from sixth splitting rivals in stretch and gained second by a nose at a mile on March 29; ran final quarter in 24 seconds.

Valley Cat: Steadied at start, raced 15 ½ lengths behind in eighth after a half-mile, came out in stretch, rallied from sixth to make up 4 ¼ lengths and gained second by 1 ¼ lengths at a mile on the turf March 15. . (Raced sixth and last 8 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, came into stretch four wide and rallied from third to win by a nose at a mile on April 7.)

Adam Suances: Raced more than seven lengths behind in seventh after a half-mile, came out leaving turn and finished third by a length at six furlongs on Feb. 21. (Raced seventh and last more than 9 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, split rivals in mid-stretch and finished third by a half-length at a mile on March 18.)

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

Midnight Serenade: Broke eighth and last, trailed by more than 8 ½ lengths after a half-mile, rallied outside in stretch to make up more than three lengths and finished second, beaten a length at seven furlongs on April 7.

Kingofthehighcees: Raced fifth early, dropped to sixth more than three lengths behind after a half-mile, rallied in stretch to make up 2 ¼ lengths and gained third by a head at about a mile on the turf March 28.

Sparkles Gold Band: Raced three lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, shuffled back in traffic to sixth after six furlongs, rallied from third in stretch to make up two lengths and finished second, beaten a length at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 15. (Raced 4 ½ lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, angled outside for the drive and finished third, beaten two heads at a mile and 40 yards on March 3.)

Another Smokey: Raced more than five lengths behind after a half-mile, angled outside for the drive and rallied in stretch to win by a length at 1 3/8 miles on the turf March 24. (Broke sixth and last, trailed by five lengths after a half-mile and rallied from fifth in stretch to finish third by a half-length at 1 1/16 miles on the turf April 7.)

Guam Typhoon: Tracked pace 1 ½ lengths and a head behind in third after a half-mile, led by 1 ½ lengths in stretch and won by 2 ½ lengths ridden out at 6 ½ furlongs on a wet fast surface Feb. 17. (Pressed pace early, led by a head after tree-eighths of a mile and won by 1 ¾ lengths at five furlongs on the turf March 17.)

TURF PARADISE

Seven Tuff: Bumped, squeezed at start, assumed command on turn, led by three lengths in stretch and drew off to win by 11 lengths ridden out at five furlongs on April 6.

Perfectionism: Raced fifth more than four lengths behind after a half-mile, eased out for drive, closed late in stretch to make up more than 3 ¼ lengths and gained second by a nose at a mile on March 27.

Rodeo Cat: Raced sixth more than 4 ½ lengths behind after a quarter-mile, steadied six wide on turn, close well late to make up 3 ½ lengths and finished second, beaten a half-length at 4 ½ furlongs on March 13. (Broke in, bumped, bobbled leaving gate, raced more than three lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile, rallied from fourth five wide into stretch and finished well to prevail by three-quarters of a length at 5 ½ furlongs on April 3.)

The world of racing is focused on Arkansas and Kentucky. There are two prep races that have historically played a great role in sending players to the Derby. The weather is looking well for both ovals, and all that is left to do is let the horses do the talking.  One race looks like a sure thing to the public, and the other offers up many options that can light up the tote board. Now, for the million dollar question… Which one is which?

Keeneland – Saturday

Let’s focus on the $200,000 All-Stakes Pick Four:

Race #8 – The Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1) – 1 1/16 miles on the turf – 4:42 p.m. ET

#2 Zagora - 3rd off the layoff for Chad Brown. J.J Castellano in the irons gives me solid confidence, and they win 35% as a team.

#3 Tapitsfly - Leparoux up for Dale Romans. This gal is 6/6 ITM at the distance, and the Romans barn looks too well across the nation with a little racing luck.

#4 Aruna - Ramon Dominguez has been healing, and today is his big day a little later. Been off since the B/C, and was full of run that day. The Motion barn excels in getting runners ready to peak at the right time.

Race #9 – The Commonwealth Stakes (G2) – 7f – 5:13 p.m. ET

#1 Comedero  - Very speedy gelding from the Mike Stidham barn. James Graham is in the saddle, and he has a graded win under his belt this year.

#2 Right One - Garrett Gomez aboard for the Clemente barn. Nicely bred to enjoy the turf, and Gomez is making the big comeback after breaking his heel in California.

#5 Lonesome Street - Fair Grounds shippers have been doing well in Lexington, and Joel Rosario is in the irons for Mike Maker. 2/3 ITM at Keeneland, and the price should be better than 3-1.

Race #10 – The Shakertown Stakes (G3) – 5 1/2 f on the turf – 5:44 p.m. ET

#3 Great Attack - Jeffrey Sanchez may be the most underrated rider on the grounds. He is up for the red-hot Wesley Ward, and is a stalking turf machine.

#4 Havelock - Rosario for Darrin Miller making a second off the layoff move. Very solid closer, and will need some pace to run down.

#9 Chamberlain Bridge -  Jamie Theriot in the driver’s seat for Bret Calhoun. This 8-year-old gelding by War Chant can strike at any time. Ships in from the Fair Grounds, and Theriot knows this guy well.

Race #11 – The Toyota Blue Grass Stakes Stakes (G1) – 1 1/8 miles – 6:18 p.m. ET

#4 Hansen - This colt by Tapit may be the early favorite for the Derby, if he wins, according to Mike Battaglia. Ramon Dominguez has been taking it easy for his Derby mount, and the owner Dr. Hansen is said to have over 100 guests to see his charge run. You will be able to pick his runner out easily as he is almost white, and his entourage will be the talk of the racing world. There is plenty of speed, and he will have to rate if he is to win on the way to Louisville.

#6 Dullahan - Kent Desormeaux up for Dale Romans. This colt has the look of something special. In my heart, he is the main contender and will have a say so in the race.  He won the G1 Breeders’ Futurity last October at Keeneland. Makes the turf to poly move, and if you saw his last race, it was definitely a prep going forward.

#3 Prospective - Luis Contreras is the pilot for Mark Casse. Exits a game win in the Tampa Derby, and will have to duplicate if he wants to win this one.

The cost of the ticket for 50-cents will be:  3 x 3 x 3 x 3 = $40.50 /  I would also key Hansen solo for a 3 x 3 x 3 x 1 = $13.50

Oaklawn Park – Saturday

Race #11 – The Arkansas Derby (G1) – 1  1/8 miles – 6:45 p.m. ET

This race is more than wide open. There is no payoff that would surprise me, and approach this heat as an opportunity to make some money.

#1 Cozzetti - This long shot for the Romans barn has been all the talk this week. Romans feels he is sitting on a big effort, and this son of Cozzene is making the second off the shelf angle. If the pace is solid, he may get rolling along the rail late in the game for Jose Lezcano.

#2 Stat – How many times do you see John Velasquez ride a 10-1 shot in a major race? If so, he usually has something live. He has faced Union Rags as a beaten favorite in his two-year-old season. This grey colt should be up close, and if J.V. gets a clean trip, he will be a player at a price.

#11 Bodemeister - The rejuvenated Bob Baffert brings a runner named for his son Bode. They take the blinkers off for this race, and Mike Smith is the hired gun to pilot him today. He has the speed to jump, or lay just off. I think we will hear from him in races to come. He should be a major player in this race.

Best of luck with one of the last prep days. Runners will let their efforts determine the contenders from the pretenders.  This is the best time to be playing as everyone is trying to get to Louisville, and there is mucho cash on the line. Be sure to get your E-Z Win Forms as early as you can. Preparation can be the difference between a good day and a great day!

Hansen and Street Sense have several things in common, including victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. Street Sense did it five years ago while Hansen triumphed in 2011.

Both horses boasted experience on synthetic surfaces. Street Sense finished third in Keeneland’s Breeders’ Futurity as a juvenile and was runner-up in the Blue Grass in ’07.

Hansen, who won Turfway’s Kentucky Cup Juvenile, takes on a talented field in the 88th running of the Blue Grass over the Polytrack on Saturday.

Several of the opposition are stakes winners: Hero of Order, the 109-1 victor of the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds; Dullahan, who scored in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall; Prospective, who captured the Tampa Bay Derby in his last trip; and Del Mar Futurity winner Drill, who comes off a triumph in the San Vicente.

Dullahan, who has hit the board racing on dirt and turf, is a half-brother to ’09 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird.

But if Hansen runs the same kind of race stretching out to 1 1/8 miles like he did winning the Gotham by three lengths at 1 1/16 miles, he will be very difficult to defeat.

Trainer Todd Pletcher, who won the Blue Grass in ’05 with Bandini and ’08 with Monba, will be represented by Heavy Breathing, third in the Spiral.

Other likely runners include Ever So Lucky, runner-up in last fall’s Kentucky Jockey Club and most recently third in Gulfstream Park’s Swale; graded stakes placed Adirondack King, who shipped out from Oaklawn Park after his seventh in the Rebel instead of sticking around for Saturday’s $1 million Arkansas Derby.

Pletcher has two Arkansas Derby wins and used the path through Hot Springs to win his first Kentucky Derby two years ago with Super Saver, who ran second in Oaklawn Park’s signature race. His stacked stable will again be represented by Stat, who exits a Gulfstream optional claiming race with 6 ¼-length victory.

But the horse to beat in the 1 1/8-mile contest that has attracted a full field is Secret Circle, who comes off a big win in the Rebel.

He began the year with a runner-up finish in Santa Anita’s Sham Stakes in January, his only defeat in six lifetime starts. The Bob Baffert trainee won his past two outings at Oaklawn Park, including a division of the Southwest.

The field taking on the son of Eddington will include Optimizer, runner-up in the Rebel; Scatman, the third-place finisher; Jake Mo, fourth; Najjaar, sixth; Sabercat, eighth; and Antigun, 11th.

Jon Court aboard Optimizer is attempting to become the first jockey to win the Arkansas Derby three consecutive times. He won last with Archarcharch and on Line of David in ’10.

The dark horse in the race is another Baffert trainee, Bodemeister, runner-up to Creative Cause in the San Felipe at Santa Anita.

Here’s my updated ranking of the Top 10 Kentucky Derby contenders from bottom to top Dave Letterman’s style:

Went The Day Well: The same connections won the 2012 and ’11 Spiral en route to Louisville. Animal Kingdom captured last year’s Kentucky Derby. This son of Proud Citizen didn’t run particular impressive closing fractions in this year’s Turfway stakes race, but handled the traffic well. Next start: Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 5.

Creative Cause: He came up a head bob short in the Santa Anita Derby, but this son of Giant’s Causeway will relish the extra furlong in the Louisville classic. His resume is impressive: a win in the San Felipe and victories last year in the Norfolk and Best Pal, plus third behind Hansen and Union Rags in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Next start: Kentucky Derby.

Alpha: The son of ’06 Preakness champ Bernardini was just a neck short in the Wood Memorial of taking three at Aqueduct in stakes routes this season. The trip wasn’t the best after breaking from the rail – rubbed shoulders with a rival, steadied over heels of another foe on first turn and waited behind small wall of leaders heading into stretch. A faster pace might have produced different results. Next race: Kentucky Derby.

Prospective: Chalked up his fourth victory in seven outings in the Tampa Bay Derby, battling through the stretch and coming back after being headed. The son of Mailbu Moon was only two-fifths of a second off the Tampa Day Downs track record for 1 1/16 miles, winning by three-quarters of a length at 1:43 1/5. His only bad race was running 13th in the BC Juvenile. Next start: Keeneland’s Blue Grass on Saturday.

Union Rags: Fountain of Youth winner had a troubled trip in Florida Derby and less than a stellar ride. The son of Dixie Union was trapped behind a wall of runners late in the backstretch to the far turn. Julien Leparoux guided him inside turning for home, then outside in the stretch where once straightened out he closed fast to make up nearly 2 ½ lengths, finishing a length and a neck back in third. He’s dangerous with a better trip. Next start: Kentucky Derby.

Take Charge Indy: Before winning the Florida Derby, he ran second to El Padrino in a Gulfstream allowance contest and fifth behind Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Union Rags. Rider Calvin Borel took advantage of the track bias, which produced three previous route winners no less than second by the stretch on March 31, and led all the way. The son of A.P. Indy possesses tactical speed, a big plus. Next start: Kentucky Derby.

Gemologist: The Todd Pletcher trainee is attempting to become the first unbeaten colt since Barbaro to win the Run for the Roses. Barbaro went to Louisville with the same number of triumphs – five. Ah, this colt sports two scores at Churchill Downs. The son of Tiznow shares the same connections as Super Saver who triumphed in ’10. Next start: Kentucky Derby.

I’ll Have Another: The nose winner in the Santa Anita Derby proved a battler down the stretch and covered the 1 1/8 miles in a quick 1:47 4/5, despite pressing the pace throughout. The nine-week layoff since his victory in the Richard B. Lewis Stakes at 1 1/16 miles paid off for trainer Doug O’Neill. The son of Flower Alley has improved in each of his three route wins. Next start: Kentucky Derby.

Hansen: The Gotham winner ran a perfect race discarding blinkers, changing his bit and overcoming post 12. The son of Tapit made his two-turn debut a winning one in a hand ride. The Michael Maker trainee, who captured the BC Juvenile, is 4-1-0 of 5. Can he run any better? Next start: Keeneland’s Blue Grass on Saturday.

The track at Keeneland has been tough to get a handle. Last Saturday, 6/8 winners went wire-to-wire, or were just off the pace. As late as Wednesday, 4/6 runners made their way into the winner’s circle by closing down the lane. The weather is supposed to be in the low 70′s, and the poly track is always fast. I would start taking a look at how the track plays Thursday and Friday to get a last minute glimpse on what to expect.

Keeneland – Saturday

Race #11 – Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) – 1/8 miles – 6:18 p.m. ET

This weekend should begin the wrap up of the major preps for the Derby. There will be a few solid races left, but historically this will be the last shot at catching that promising glimpse of greatness. The weather will be kind, and as always check-in with the weather report on the WinningPonies site and grab your E-Z Win Forms to get your handicapping plan formulated.

#4 Hansen (6-5) – Ramon Dominguez in the irons for trainer Mike Maker. They make a great team, and Dominguez has been on the mend with his shoulder. He did not opt to lay on the sidelines, but instead rode selective mounts to keep in the groove. As all athletes, a week or two off can really take you out of your game. Ramon is as tough as they come, and the son of Tapit is 5/5 ITM lifetime. He should relish the poly at Keeneland as he won twice over the Turfway Park strip. Last out in the Gotham, they took off the blinkers and he rated off like a maturing runner. I would look for Dominguez to keep him clear off the rail, and lay about 3 or 4th down the backstretch. When they make the 3/8ths pole, you should see a brilliant white flash named Hansen inhale the leaders and take command before they hit the stretch.

#6 Dullahan (6-1) – Kent Desormeaux up for Dale Romans. 2nd off the shelf, and going for the turf-poly angle (16%). Sweet work on 4/8 at Keeneland to tighten the screws with a 57.2 scorcher. 1/1 at Keeneland, and Romans plans to have this guy moving late in the game. If the fractions are hot, and you see a 1:11.2 or better, this guy may put out their lights.

#9 Holy Candy (30-1) - Joel Rosario in town for John Sadler. When they team up in Kentucky, good things happen. I can see this runner being a part of the exotics, but some major factors will have to converge for him to win. Looks to be a solid stalker, and with all of the speed in here, that looks like a good place to be.

#3 Prospective (10-1) – Luis Contreras for Mark Casse. Exits a win in the G-2 Tampa Derby, and should enjoy the poly with two wins at Woodbine. The barn wins 22% on synthetic, and owns two solid works at Churchill Downs.

The track will be the major factor. Be sure to look over the charts for Thursday and Friday, and plan on weather being in the low 70′s. This should be a perfect day for racing in Kentucky, and the race may turn up a bit chalky as compared to many of the past races. Hansen looks to be in his wheelhouse, but the race could also set up nicely for those looking to gain graded earnings. He has $1,400,000, and Dullahan has $405,000. I can’t see past the two favorites in this heat, but your E-Z Win Forms will turn up some nice prices to build some great value. So, get your data in hand early, and enjoy one of your last glimpses before Derby. As always, may your winners be many and your photos be few!

On a cold and blustery afternoon, I walked past the ancient Sycamore tree and the familiar scent of horses caught my nostrils. Walking across the paddock area, and feeling the years of history whisper gently in my ear. I knew that I could only be in one place – in beautiful Lexington, at historic Keeneland.

If you have never made the trek, I would have to say that this should be a part of every horse player’s pilgrimage. There are no religious statues or a chapel in the grandstand, but about every twenty minutes or so during live racing you can feel many fans reaching out for divine intervention.

The stands feel as if your great-grandfather could be sitting there taking in a day at the races. It is rare that you find a place that has been around since 1936, and offers an old-time feel with the technology of the day. You could say that Keeneland is the “Brigadoon” of racing as it appears for 15 days every April and October.

I made my first trek many moons ago. It was a place that was bustling with activity, and I never felt more at home. There used to be no announcer, and you would know the race was off when the crowd would erupt. As the horses charged for home, you could feel the hair stand up on the back of your neck. To this day, it is the only track I have ever attended where fans clap and cheer for the runners as they make their way back to unsaddle. Today, you will hear the smooth tones of Kurt Becker as he brings the race to life.

If you are looking for a bite, then you are in the right place. Keeneland offers the best of Kentucky fare, and some specialty items that are more guarded than Fort Knox. Over the years, I have watched the facility become family-friendly. You will see kids of all ages walking to see the pageantry of the horses in the saddling area, or find them playing along the rail waiting to feed an outrider’s pony a peppermint. Needless to say, the palace of racing has something for everyone. This Saturday is the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes. It is a race that has produced 23 Kentucky Derby winners, and if you are keeping score, the last to complete this effort was Street Sense in 2007. There will be a julep cup presented to the winning connections, and $750,000 in purses for three-year-old hopefuls to bankroll on their way to Louisville for the first Saturday in May.

Time is of the essence, and if you have not made plans to be on hand, I would do so now. Racing concludes on the 27th of this month, and it disappears into the mist until October where the grand palace of racing appears again. Keeneland is a special place; one that holds many memories for me. Take a look around when you are there, and take in all that the experience has to offer. I don’t think you will leave disappointed. If you are really quiet, and close your eyes I bet you will hear the sounds of thundering hooves of past champions, and those yet to be crowned.